Prédiction de l'attrition en date de renouvellement en assurance automobile avec processus gaussiens

Le domaine de l’assurance automobile fonctionne par cycles présentant des phases de profitabilité et d’autres de non-profitabilité. Dans les phases de non-profitabilité, les compagnies d’assurance ont généralement le réflexe d’augmenter le coût des primes afin de tenter de réduire les pertes. Par contre, de très grandes augmentations peuvent avoir pour effet de massivement faire fuir la clientèle vers les compétiteurs. Un trop haut taux d’attrition pourrait avoir un effet négatif sur la profitabilité à long terme de la compagnie. Une bonne gestion des augmentations de taux se révèle donc primordiale pour une compagnie d’assurance. Ce mémoire a pour but de construire un outil de simulation de l’allure du porte- feuille d’assurance détenu par un assureur en fonction du changement de taux proposé à chacun des assurés. Une procédure utilisant des régressions à l’aide de processus gaus- siens univariés est développée. Cette procédure offre une performance supérieure à la régression logistique, le modèle généralement utilisé pour effectuer ce genre de tâche.

Strength and attrition resistance of agglomerates and particulate coatings

The mechanical properties of a range of agglomerates and particulate coatings have been measured using a nanoindenter. The effect of formulation properties such as powder and binder properties on coating hardness is described. An attempt is also made to measure the fracture hardness with the nanoindenter. The use of indentation technology to measure fundamental agglomerate properties is critically analysed. Based on the indentation measurements and standard attrition test results, the coating hardness is found closely related to the attrition rate under standard conditions and can be used to screen different powder/binder formulations. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V All rights reserved.

Stability Testing of Spray- and Spouted Bed-Dried Extracts of Passiflora alata

The aim of this research was to perform a stability testing of spray- and spouted bed-dried extracts of Passiflora alata Dryander (Passion flower) under stress storage conditions. Spouted bed- and spray-dried extracts were characterized by determination of the average particle diameter (dP), apparent moisture content (XP), total flavonoid content (TF), and vitexin content. Smaller and more irregular particles were generated by the spouted bed system due to a higher attrition rate (surface erosion) inside the dryer. The SB dryer resulted in an end product with higher concentration of flavonoids (approximate to 10%) and lower moisture content (1.6%, dry basis) than the spray dryer, even with both dryers working at similar inlet drying air temperature and ratio between the extract feed flow rate to drying air flow rate (Ws/Wg). Samples of the spouted bed- and spray-dried extracts were stored at two different temperatures (34 and 45 degrees C) and two different relative humidities (52 and 63% RH for 34 degrees C; 52 and 60% RH for 45 degrees C) in order to perform the stability testing. The dried extracts were stored for 28 days and were analyzed every 4 days. The flavonoid vitexin served as the marker compound, which was assayed during the storage period. Results revealed shelf lives ranging from 9 to 184 days, depending on the drying process and storage conditions.

The efficacy of a universal school-based program to prevent adolescent depression

Evaluated whether a universal school-based program, designed to prevent depression in adolescents, could be effectively implemented within the constraints of the school environment. Participants were 260 Year 9 secondary school students. Students completed measures of depressive symptoms and hopelessness and were then assigned to 1 of 3 groups: (a) Resourceful Adolescent Program Adolescents (RAP A), an 11-session school-based resilience building program, as part of the school curriculum; (b) Resourceful Adolescent Program-Family (RAP-F), the same program as in RAP A, but in which each student's parents were also invited to participate in a 3-session parent program; and (c) Adolescent Watch, a comparison group in which adolescents simply completed the measures. The program was implemented with a high recruitment (88%), low attrition rate (5.8%), and satisfactory adherence to program protocol. Adolescents in either of the RAP programs reported significantly lower levels of depressive symptomatology and hopelessness at post-intervention and 10-month follow-up, compared with those in the comparison group. Adolescents also reported high satisfaction with the program. The study provides evidence for the efficacy of a school-based universal program designed to prevent depression in adolescence.

Feasibility and acceptability of an exergame intervention for schizophrenia

Objectives To evaluate the feasibility and acceptability of an exergame intervention as a tool to promote physical activity in outpatients with schizophrenia. Design Feasibility/Acceptability Study and Quasi-Experimental Trial. Method Sixteen outpatients with schizophrenia received treatment as usual and they all completed an 8-week exergame intervention using Microsoft Kinect® (20 min sessions, biweekly). Participants completed pre and post treatment assessments regarding functional mobility (Timed Up and Go Test), functional fitness performance (Senior Fitness Test), motor neurological soft signs (Brief Motor Scale), hand grip strength (digital dynamometer), static balance (force plate), speed of processing (Trail Making Test), schizophrenia-related symptoms (Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale) and functioning (Personal and Social Performance Scale). The EG group completed an acceptability questionnaire after the intervention. Results Attrition rate was 18.75% and 69.23% of the participants completed the intervention within the proposed schedule. Baseline clinical traits were not related to game performance indicators. Over 90% of the participants rated the intervention as satisfactory and interactive. Most participants (76.9%) agreed that this intervention promotes healthier lifestyles and is an acceptable alternative to perform physical activity. Repeated-measures MANOVA analyses found no significant multivariate effects for combined outcomes. Conclusion This study established the feasibility and acceptability of an exergame intervention for outpatients with schizophrenia. The intervention proved to be an appealing alternative to physical activity. Future trials should include larger sample sizes, explore patients' adherence to home-based exergames and consider greater intervention dosage (length, session duration, and/or frequency) in order to achieve potential effects.

An Architectural and Historical Survey of Public Libraries in Iowa 1870-1940, 1980

The public library movement f the early twentieth century was a national phenomenon, in which Iowa, along with its neighboring states, played a prominent role. In 1900, the Iowa Library Commission noted 48 free public libraries in the state. Today there are approximately 500, in towns ranging in size from Beaman, with a population of 222, the Des Moines, the state capitol. Iowans took enthusiastic advantage of Andre Carnegie's library philanthropy. In 1919, the Carnegie Corporation stopped funding libraries, 101 building has been erected in Iowa with Carnegie funds. Iowa place fourth among the states in terms of the number of communities obtaining Carnegie buildings, fifth in dollar appropriation per one hundred population and eighth in the total amount of money given by Carnegie to a state. These figures provide some measure by which interest in popular education among Iowans of the period can be judged. Today these early libraries, often the most distinctive public libraries in small or medium-sized towns, are physical foci in the townscapes of their communities and centers for a variety of educational and social activities. This survey was initiated by the Division of Historic Preservation in 1977. It grew out of the need to provide a framework within which libraries could be evaluated for National Register action. Several libraries (Des Moines, Grinnell, Eagle Grove, Carroll) has been recent candidates for the Register. There was every indication that enthusiasm for old library buildings was increasing and that more nominations could be expected in the future. The attrition rate among early library buildings was (and is) growing. Most libraries were built on limited budgets (Carnegie did not squander his money) and, despite the fact that future expansion was usually a conscious consideration in their design, they are rapidly becoming obsolete, due to expanding collections and changing styles of librarianship. If the protection of the threatened with demolition or alteration, action needed to be taken.

Detailed analysis and follow-up studies of a high-throughput screening for indoleamine 2,3-dioxygenase 1 (IDO1) inhibitors.

Indoleamine 2,3-dioxygenase 1 (IDO1) is a key regulator of immune responses and therefore an important therapeutic target for the treatment of diseases that involve pathological immune escape, such as cancer. Here, we describe a robust and sensitive high-throughput screen (HTS) for IDO1 inhibitors using the Prestwick Chemical Library of 1200 FDA-approved drugs and the Maybridge HitFinder Collection of 14,000 small molecules. Of the 60 hits selected for follow-up studies, 14 displayed IC50 values below 20 μM under the secondary assay conditions, and 4 showed an activity in cellular tests. In view of the high attrition rate we used both experimental and computational techniques to identify and to characterize compounds inhibiting IDO1 through unspecific inhibition mechanisms such as chemical reactivity, redox cycling, or aggregation. One specific IDO1 inhibitor scaffold, the imidazole antifungal agents, was chosen for rational structure-based lead optimization, which led to more soluble and smaller compounds with micromolar activity.

Female administrators and the mentors who give them full support /

A looming attrition rate, a steady increase in the number of women in administration, and a lack of Canadian research all provided the rationale for this study. The problem in this study was to investigate the needs and challenges of new female administrators and to examine the role that mentors play in addressing these issues. This study also explored the perceived benefits of having a mentor. This study examined the inductive year of 33 female administrators from 3 Ontario school boards. It was a qualitative and quantitative design, using questionnaire and interview data. It was found that the majority felt that they struggled with biases and expectations that were gender specific. The challenges that were perceived to be most prevalent were categorized into 4 thematic areas: Maintaining Balance, Feeling Pressured, The Perceptions of Others, and Being Challenged by Others. Regarding the benefits of mentoring, the participants perceived mentoring to be most beneficial in terms of professional growth, followed by learning how to run a school, and then career advancement. The significance of this study was threefold: it had theoretical implications as well as implications for practice and future research. Suggestions included: facilitating longitudinal relationships, having the board become more actively involved in facilitating the relationship, and implementing an internship program. This study attempted to extend the current literature by theorizing that a mentorship is cyclical in nature. Future research could include program design and implementation, as well as providing consistent and accessible mentoring opportunities for all.

Long-term results after proximal thoracic aortic redo surgery

Objective: To evaluate early and mid-term results in patients undergoing proximal thoracic aortic redo surgery. Methods: We analyzed 60 patients (median age 60 years, median logistic EuroSCORE 40) who underwent proximal thoracic aortic redo surgery between January 2005 and April 2012. Outcome and risk factors were analyzed. Results: In hospital mortality was 13%, perioperative neurologic injury was 7%. Fifty percent of patients underwent redo surgery in an urgent or emergency setting. In 65%, partial or total arch replacement with or without conventional or frozen elephant trunk extension was performed. The preoperative logistic EuroSCORE I confirmed to be a reliable predictor of adverse outcome- (ROC 0.786, 95%CI 0.64–0.93) as did the new EuroSCORE II model: ROC 0.882 95%CI 0.78–0.98. Extensive individual logistic EuroSCORE I levels more than 67 showed an OR of 7.01, 95%CI 1.43–34.27. A EuroSCORE II larger than 28 showed an OR of 4.44 (95%CI 1.4–14.06). Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified a critical preoperative state (OR 7.96, 95%CI 1.51–38.79) but not advanced age (OR 2.46, 95%CI 0.48–12.66) as the strongest independent predictor of in-hospital mortality. Median follow-up was 23 months (1–52 months). One year and five year actuarial survival rates were 83% and 69% respectively. Freedom from reoperation during follow-up was 100%. Conclusions: Despite a substantial early attrition rate in patients presenting with a critical preoperative state, proximal thoracic aortic redo surgery provides excellent early and mid-term results. Higher EuroSCORE I and II levels and a critical preoperative state but not advanced age are independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. As a consequence, age alone should no longer be regarded as a contraindication for surgical treatment in this particular group of patient

Don’t Let Me Down: An Autoethnography of an Urban Teacher

Students in urban schools who are negatively impacted need stability and continuity the most. However, at least half of new teachers leave their profession within five years. In order for this situation to change, support is needed for new teachers and encouragement is needed for experienced teachers. The purpose of the study is to offer a first-hand description of factors that affect the profession of teaching and especially teachers who may be wondering how to stay in teaching for more than five years. Veteran teachers gain the opportunity to reflect, validate, and (probably) celebrate their own journey through this profession. This autoethnography uses my experience of a 29-year veteran teacher, who started with an alternative teaching license, to mirror what researchers have identified as key factors for sustainability and how they affected my continued commitment to teaching in urban schools. The following questions framed the study: 1. Why did I choose teaching as a career? 2. What supportive factors contributed to my decision to continue teaching in an urban school rather than leave the profession? 3. What internal and external struggles have I encountered in teaching and what strategies did I use to overcome them? 4. What beliefs and experiences led to my steadfast commitment to teaching in an urban setting? 5. How do I define success as an urban teacher? 6. What are the implications of my story for urban education? This autoethnography involves data collection and in-depth analysis of documents and artifacts that were generated during my teaching career as an urban educator. These documents and artifacts come from both internal and external sources. The study’s implications reach beyond teachers and include two sub-groups: teacher education programs and school administrators. The implication for teachers is the importance of a two-fold support system in order to thrive: first teachers need spiritual support and second they need to surround themselves with likeminded teachers. The implications for teacher education programs include making pre-service teachers aware of the realities of urban settings and provide them with resources, which could help overcome the attrition rate. Additionally, pre-service teachers need to know how to form credible relationships with their students. This study also reveals the important role that school principals play in the success of their teachers. First, principals are responsible for creating a positive school climate that promotes a professional learning community. Second, they need to establish relational trust in their building. Third, they need to nourish their staff both physically and emotionally. Finally, the implications of autoethnography for teachers and researchers are also discussed.

Access to death certificates: What should research ethics committees require for approval?

PURPOSE: To present and discuss the reactions of research ethics committees (RECs) in a number of countries when asked for approval Of a study requiring access to death certificates to identify the physicians signing the certificates and to send them a four-page questionnaire about medical decisions made at the patient's end-of-life that could possibly have hastened death. METHODS: A simple questionnaire were sent to the responsible national investigator in an international study (Australia, Belgium, Denmark, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland) asking about the interactions between the national research group and the national/regional REC(s). RESULTS: Different laws or guidelines were used by the RECs. Denmark, the Netherlands, and Switzerland did not require an application to a REC. In Australia and Sweden, the RECs wanted changes in the research protocol, and one national research group had to refrain from publishing its results because the attrition rate became too high, probably due to the required changes in the protocol. RECOMMENDATIONS: Generally, similar demands from all RECs in relation to one project are strongly desirable. In epidemiological research, in which Voluntary completion of an anonymous questionnaire demonstrates consent, additional prior informed consent about being approached should not be required.

Impact of cholinesterase inhibitors on behavioral and psychological symptoms of Alzheimer's disease:a meta-analysis

Objective: To determine the efficacy of cholinesterase inhibitors (ChEIs) in improving the behavioral and psychological symptoms of dementia (BPSD) in patients with Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Data sources: We searched MEDLINE, Cochrane Registry, and the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) from 1966 to 2007. We limited our search to English Language, full text, published articles and human studies. Data extraction: We included randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials evaluating the efficacy of donepezil, rivastigmine, or galantamine in managing BPSD displayed by AD patients. Using the United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) guidelines, we critically appraised all studies and included only those with an attrition rate of less than 40%, concealed measurement of the outcomes, and intention to treat analysis of the collected data. All data were imputed into pre-defined evidence based tables and were pooled using the Review Manager 4.2.1 software for data synthesis. Results: We found 12 studies that met our inclusion criteria but only nine of them provided sufficient data for the meta-analysis. Among patients with mild to severe AD and in comparison to placebo, ChEIs as a class had a beneficial effects on reducing BPSD with a standard mean difference (SMD) of -0.10 (95% confidence interval [CI]; -0.18, -0.01) and a weighted mean difference (WMD) of -1.38 neuropsychiatry inventory point (95% CI; -2.30, -0.46). In studies with mild AD patients, the WMD was -1.92 (95% CI; -3.18, -0.66); and in studies with severe AD patients, the WMD was -0.06 (95% CI; -2.12, +0.57). Conclusion: Cholinesterase inhibitors lead to a statistical significant reduction in BPSD among patients with AD, yet the clinical relevance of this effect remains unclear.

The effect of osteoporosis education on calcium intake and physical activity in a group of community-dwelling Black older adults

The unprecedented increase in the number of older adults is expected to increase the burden of osteoporosis on the individual and society. Blacks have been understudied in osteoporosis prevention education research. Although the risk of osteoporosis is low in this population, its consequences are significant. This study employs a two-group experimental design (experimental and wait-list control groups) to evaluate the effect of an osteoporosis education on two osteoporosis prevention behaviors (OPBs)—calcium intake (CI) and physical activity (PA), in a group of community-dwelling Black older adults, 50 years and older resident in South Florida. A final sample of 110 (mean age 70.15 years), 90% female and 10% male completed a battery of questionnaires at two assessment periods. The experimental group participated in six weekly education program sessions immediately following baseline assessment, and the wait-list control group received the education following end of program assessment by all participants. The weekly educational sessions were conducted in social settings (church or senior center) employing constructs of the Revised Health Belief Model. The sessions focused on improving CI; osteoporosis knowledge (OKT), self-efficacy (SE), health beliefs (HB) and PA. Findings revealed significantly greater increase in reported CI ( M = 556 mg, Wilks’ λ = .47, F (1,108)=122.97, p< .001, η2=.53), OKT (p< .001), and SE (p< .001) among participants in the experimental compared to the wait-list control group. There was no significant difference between the two groups for PA and most of the HB subscales. OKT and SE were the best predictors of CI, while perceived barrier was a predominant factor predicting PA. Over the study period, a change in SE was the only variable related to changes in both OPBs. Attrition rate was lower than expected, which can be attributed to the settings utilized for the study. These findings support the importance of utilizing a familiar social setting. These results suggested the effectiveness of a program offered in multiple short sessions among this underserved minority population to improve OKT and SE resulting in a change in OPBs (increase in CI). However, there is need to explore alternative strategies to improve PA in this population group.

An ethnographic study: Becoming a physics expert in a biophysics research group

Expertise in physics has been traditionally studied in cognitive science, where physics expertise is understood through the difference between novice and expert problem solving skills. The cognitive perspective of physics experts only create a partial model of physics expertise and does not take into account the development of physics experts in the natural context of research. This dissertation takes a social and cultural perspective of learning through apprenticeship to model the development of physics expertise of physics graduate students in a research group. I use a qualitative methodological approach of an ethnographic case study to observe and video record the common practices of graduate students in their biophysics weekly research group meetings. I recorded notes on observations and conduct interviews with all participants of the biophysics research group for a period of eight months. I apply the theoretical framework of Communities of Practice to distinguish the cultural norms of the group that cultivate physics expert practices. Results indicate that physics expertise is specific to a topic or subfield and it is established through effectively publishing research in the larger biophysics research community. The participant biophysics research group follows a learning trajectory for its students to contribute to research and learn to communicate their research in the larger biophysics community. In this learning trajectory students develop expert member competencies to learn to communicate their research and to learn the standards and trends of research in the larger research community. Findings from this dissertation expand the model of physics expertise beyond the cognitive realm and add the social and cultural nature of physics expertise development. This research also addresses ways to increase physics graduate student success towards their PhD. and decrease the 48% attrition rate of physics graduate students. Cultivating effective research experiences that give graduate students agency and autonomy beyond their research groups gives students the motivation to finish graduate school and establish their physics expertise.^