984 resultados para Attributable risk


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In the midst of health care reform, and as health care organizations reorganize to provide more cost-effective healthcare, the population is being shifted into new healthcare delivery systems such as health insurance purchasing alliances, and health maintenance organizations. These new models of delivery are usually organized within resource restricted and data limited environments. Health care planners are faced with the challenge of identifying priorities for preventive and primary care services within these newly organized populations (Medicare HMO, Medicaid HMO, etc.). The author proposes a technique usually employed in epidemiology--attributable risk estimation--as a planning methodology to establish preventive health priorities within newly organized populations. Illustrations of the methodology are provided utilizing the Texas 1992 population. ^

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Purpose LATIN is a multinational case-control study designed to identify risk factors for agranulocytosis and to estimate the incidence rate of the disease in some Latin American countries. Methods Each study site in Brazil, Argentina and Mexico conducted an active search of agranulocytosis patients in hematology clinics and looked for possible associations with drug use. Results The overall incidence rate was 0.38 cases per 1 million inhabitant-years. Agranulocytosis patients more often took medications already associated with agranulocytosis than controls (p=0.01), mainly methimazole (OR 44.2, 95% CI 6.8 to infinity). The population attributable risk percentage (etiologic fraction) was 56%. The use of nutrient supplements was more frequent among patients than controls (p=0.03). Conclusions Agranulocytosis seems to be very rare in Latin America. The lower than expected number of cases identified during the study period precluded estimation of the risk associated to individual drugs, with the exception of methimazol. However, this is the longest series of agranulocytosis cases ever gathered in Latin America, and information on drug exposures was collected prospectively. The conclusion is that drug-induced agranulocytosis does not seem to be a major public health problem in the study regions.

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Two hazard risk assessment matrices for the ranking of occupational health risks are described. The qualitative matrix uses qualitative measures of probability and consequence to determine risk assessment codes for hazard-disease combinations. A walk-through survey of an underground metalliferous mine and concentrator is used to demonstrate how the qualitative matrix can be applied to determine priorities for the control of occupational health hazards. The semi-quantitative matrix uses attributable risk as a quantitative measure of probability and uses qualitative measures of consequence. A practical application of this matrix is the determination of occupational health priorities using existing epidemiological studies. Calculated attributable risks from epidemiological studies of hazard-disease combinations in mining and minerals processing are used as examples. These historic response data do not reflect the risks associated with current exposures. A method using current exposure data, known exposure-response relationships and the semi-quantitative matrix is proposed for more accurate and current risk rankings.

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Objective: To describe new measures of risk from case-control and cohort studies, which are simple to understand and relate to numbers of the population at risk. Design: Theoretical development of new measures of risk. Setting: Review of literature and previously described measures. Main results: The new measures are: (1) the population impact number (PIN), the number of those in the whole population among whom one case is attributable to the exposure or risk factor (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the population attributable risk),- (2) the case impact number (CIN) the number of people with the disease or outcome for whom one case will be attributable to the exposure or risk factor (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the population attributable fraction); (3) the exposure impact number (EIN) the number of people with the exposure among whom one excess case is attributable to the exposure (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the attributable risk); (4) the exposed cases impact number (ECIN) the number of exposed cases among whom one case is attributable to the exposure (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the aetiological fraction). The impact number reflects the number of people in each population (the whole population, the cases, all those exposed, and the exposed cases) among whom one case is attributable to the particular risk factor. Conclusions: These new measures should help communicate the impact on a population, of estimates of risk derived from cohort or case-control studies.

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OBJECTIVE To estimate the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus and its percentage attributable to overweight and obesity in Brazil.METHODS The burden of diabetes mellitus was described in terms of disability-adjusted life years, which is the sum of two components: years of life lost and years lived with disability. To calculate the fraction of diabetes mellitus attributable to overweight, obesity, and excess weight, we used the prevalence of these risk factors according to sex and age groups (> 20 years) obtained from the 2008 Pesquisa Dimensões Sociais das Desigualdades (Social Dimensions of Inequality Survey) and the relative risks derived from the international literature.RESULTS Diabetes mellitus accounted for 5.4% of Brazilian disability-adjusted life years in 2008, with the largest fraction attributed to the morbidity component (years lived with disability). Women exhibited higher values for disability-adjusted life years. In Brazil, 49.2%, 58.3%, and 70.6% of diabetes mellitus in women was attributable to overweight, obesity, and excess weight, respectively. Among men, these percentages were 40.5%, 45.4%, and 60.3%, respectively. Differences were observed with respect to Brazilian regions and age groups.CONCLUSIONS A large fraction of diabetes mellitus was attributable to preventable individual risk factors and, in about six years, the contribution of these factors significant increased, particularly among men. Policies aimed at promoting healthy lifestyle habits, such as a balanced diet and physical activity, can have a significant impact on reducing the burden of diabetes mellitus in Brazil.

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BACKGROUND: Data from prospective cohort studies regarding the association between subclinical hyperthyroidism and cardiovascular outcomes are conflicting.We aimed to assess the risks of total and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality, CHD events, and atrial fibrillation (AF) associated with endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism among all available large prospective cohorts. METHODS: Individual data on 52 674 participants were pooled from 10 cohorts. Coronary heart disease events were analyzed in 22 437 participants from 6 cohorts with available data, and incident AF was analyzed in 8711 participants from 5 cohorts. Euthyroidism was defined as thyrotropin level between 0.45 and 4.49 mIU/L and endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism as thyrotropin level lower than 0.45 mIU/L with normal free thyroxine levels, after excluding those receiving thyroid-altering medications. RESULTS: Of 52 674 participants, 2188 (4.2%) had subclinical hyperthyroidism. During follow-up, 8527 participants died (including 1896 from CHD), 3653 of 22 437 had CHD events, and 785 of 8711 developed AF. In age- and sex-adjusted analyses, subclinical hyperthyroidism was associated with increased total mortality (hazard ratio[HR], 1.24, 95% CI, 1.06-1.46), CHD mortality (HR,1.29; 95% CI, 1.02-1.62), CHD events (HR, 1.21; 95%CI, 0.99-1.46), and AF (HR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.16-2.43).Risks did not differ significantly by age, sex, or preexisting cardiovascular disease and were similar after further adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors, with attributable risk of 14.5% for total mortality to 41.5% forAF in those with subclinical hyperthyroidism. Risks for CHD mortality and AF (but not other outcomes) were higher for thyrotropin level lower than 0.10 mIU/L compared with thyrotropin level between 0.10 and 0.44 mIU/L(for both, P value for trend, .03). CONCLUSION: Endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism is associated with increased risks of total, CHD mortality, and incident AF, with highest risks of CHD mortality and AF when thyrotropin level is lower than 0.10 mIU/L.

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Background: Noise is the most common agent of occupational exposure. It may induce both auditory and extraauditory dysfunction and increase the risk of work accidents. The purpose of this study was to estimate the fraction of accidents attributable to noise occupational exposure in a mid-size city located in southeastern Brazil. Materials and Methods: In this population case-control study, which included 108 cases and 324 controls, the incidence rate ratio of work accidents controlled for several covariables was obtained by classifying occupational noise exposure into three levels, as well as determining the prevalence in each level. Results: Based on these data, the attributable fraction was estimated as 0.6391 (95 CI = 0.2341-0.3676), i.e., 63 of the work accidents that took place in the study site were statistically associated with occupational noise exposure. Discussion: The causes of this association as well as its implications in the prevention of work accidents are discussed.

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Noise is the most frequent type of occupational exposure and can lead to both auditory and extra-auditory dysfunction as well as increasing the risk of work accidents. The purpose of this study was to estimate the attributable fraction of work accidents related to occupational noise exposure in a medium-sized city in Southeast Brazil. In this hospital-based case-control study, including 600 cases and 822 controls, the odds ratio of work accidents (controlled for several covariables) was obtained classifying occupational noise exposure into four levels and determining the prevalence at each level. Based on these data, the calculated attributable fraction was 0.3041 (95%CI: 0.2341-0.3676), i.e., 30% of work accidents in the study area were statistically associated with occupational noise exposure. The authors discuss the causes of this association and the implications for the prevention of work accidents.

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Abstract Background Hepatitis C chronic liver disease is a major cause of liver transplant in developed countries. This article reports the first nationwide population-based survey conducted to estimate the seroprevalence of HCV antibodies and associated risk factors in the urban population of Brazil. Methods The cross sectional study was conducted in all Brazilian macro-regions from 2005 to 2009, as a stratified multistage cluster sample of 19,503 inhabitants aged between 10 and 69 years, representing individuals living in all 26 State capitals and the Federal District. Hepatitis C antibodies were detected by a third-generation enzyme immunoassay. Seropositive individuals were retested by Polymerase Chain Reaction and genotyped. Adjusted prevalence was estimated by macro-regions. Potential risk factors associated with HCV infection were assessed by calculating the crude and adjusted odds ratios, 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) and p values. Population attributable risk was estimated for multiple factors using a case–control approach. Results The overall weighted prevalence of hepatitis C antibodies was 1.38% (95% CI: 1.12%–1.64%). Prevalence of infection increased in older groups but was similar for both sexes. The multivariate model showed the following to be predictors of HCV infection: age, injected drug use (OR = 6.65), sniffed drug use (OR = 2.59), hospitalization (OR = 1.90), groups socially deprived by the lack of sewage disposal (OR = 2.53), and injection with glass syringe (OR = 1.52, with a borderline p value). The genotypes 1 (subtypes 1a, 1b), 2b and 3a were identified. The estimated population attributable risk for the ensemble of risk factors was 40%. Approximately 1.3 million individuals would be expected to be anti-HCV-positive in the country. Conclusions The large estimated absolute numbers of infected individuals reveals the burden of the disease in the near future, giving rise to costs for the health care system and society at large. The known risk factors explain less than 50% of the infected cases, limiting the prevention strategies. Our findings regarding risk behaviors associated with HCV infection showed that there is still room for improving strategies for reducing transmission among drug users and nosocomial infection, as well as a need for specific prevention and control strategies targeting individuals living in poverty.

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Type 2 diabetes has grown to epidemic proportions in the U.S., and its prevalence has been steadily increasing in Texas. The physical activity levels in the population have remained low despite it being one of the primary preventive strategies for type 2 diabetes. The objectives of this study were to estimate the direct medical costs of type 2 diabetes attributable to not meeting physical activity Guidelines and to physical inactivity in the U.S. and Texas in 2007. This was a cross sectional study that used physical activity prevalence data from the 2007 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) to estimate the population attributable risk percentage (PAR%) for type 2 diabetes. These data were combined with the prevalence and cost data of type 2 diabetes to estimate the cost of type 2 diabetes attributable to not meeting Guidelines and to inactivity in the U.S. and Texas in 2007.^ The cost of type 2 diabetes in the U.S. in 2007, attributable to not meeting physical activity Guidelines was estimated to be $13.29 billion, and that attributable to physical inactivity (no leisure time physical activity) was estimated to be $3.32 billion. Depending on various assumptions, these estimates ranged from $7.61 billion to $41.48 billion for not meeting Guidelines, and $1.90 billion to $13.20 billion for physical inactivity in the U.S. in 2007. The cost of type 2 diabetes in Texas in 2007 attributable to not meeting physical activity Guidelines was estimated to be $1.15 billion, and that attributable to physical inactivity (no leisure time physical activity) was estimated to be $325 million. Depending on various assumptions, these estimates ranged from $800 million to $3.47 billion for not meeting Guidelines, and $186 million to $1.28 billion for physical inactivity in Texas in 2007. These results illustrate how much money could be saved annually just in terms of type 2 diabetes cost in the U.S. and Texas, if the entire adult population was active enough to meet physical activity Guidelines. Physical activity promotion, particularly at the environmental and policy level should be a priority in the population. ^

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This cross-sectional analysis of the data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey was conducted to determine the prevalence and determinants of asthma and wheezing among US adults, and to identify the occupations and industries at high risk of developing work-related asthma and work-related wheezing. Separate logistic models were developed for physician-diagnosed asthma (MD asthma), wheezing in the previous 12 months (wheezing), work-related asthma and work-related wheezing. Major risk factors including demographic, socioeconomic, indoor air quality, allergy, and other characteristics were analyzed. The prevalence of lifetime MD asthma was 7.7% and the prevalence of wheezing was 17.2%. Mexican-Americans exhibited the lowest prevalence of MD asthma (4.8%; 95% confidence interval (CI): 4.2, 5.4) when compared to other race-ethnic groups. The prevalence of MD asthma or wheezing did not vary by gender. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that Mexican-Americans were less likely to develop MD asthma (adjusted odds ratio (ORa) = 0.64, 95%CI: 0.45, 0.90) and wheezing (ORa = 0.55, 95%CI: 0.44, 0.69) when compared to non-Hispanic whites. Low education level, current and past smoking status, pet ownership, lifetime diagnosis of physician-diagnosed hay fever and obesity were all significantly associated with MD asthma and wheezing. No significant effect of indoor air pollutants on asthma and wheezing was observed in this study. The prevalence of work-related asthma was 3.70% (95%CI: 2.88, 4.52) and the prevalence of work-related wheezing was 11.46% (95%CI: 9.87, 13.05). The major occupations identified at risk of developing work-related asthma and wheezing were cleaners; farm and agriculture related occupations; entertainment related occupations; protective service occupations; construction; mechanics and repairers; textile; fabricators and assemblers; other transportation and material moving occupations; freight, stock and material movers; motor vehicle operators; and equipment cleaners. The population attributable risk for work-related asthma and wheeze were 26% and 27% respectively. The major industries identified at risk of work-related asthma and wheeze include entertainment related industry; agriculture, forestry and fishing; construction; electrical machinery; repair services; and lodging places. The population attributable risk for work-related asthma was 36.5% and work-related wheezing was 28.5% for industries. Asthma remains an important public health issue in the US and in the other regions of the world. ^

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OBJETIVO: Descrever a distribuição do coeficiente de mortalidade infantil e seus componentes no município do Embu, São Paulo, no período de 1995 a 1998, segundo os estratos de condições de vida. MÉTODOS: Estudo descritivo com análise por conglomerados,dos 135 setores censitários do município de Embu, agrupados em quatro estratos de condições de vida: estrato 1, com melhores condições de moradia, renda e escolaridade; estratos 2 e 3, intermediários; estrato 4, no qual todas as moradias eram aglomerados subnormais ou favelas. Foram calculados os coeficientes de mortalidade infantil, neonatal e pós-neonatal, a proporção entre óbitos neonatais e pós-neonatais, o risco atribuível populacional e mortalidade proporcional por causas, para os anos de 1995 a 1998, segundo os quatro estratos de condições de vida estabelecidos. RESULTADOS: O estrato 4 apresentou maiores coeficientes de mortalidade infantil e risco atribuível populacional em relação aos estratos intermediários, em todos os anos do estudo. Esse estrato apresentou, também, as menores proporções entre mortalidade neonatal e pós-neonatal. O risco atribuível populacional no estrato 4 foi maior que os demais estratos para as afecções perinatais (159,4), doenças respiratórias (271,4) e doenças infecciosas (415,6). Identificaram-se dados demográficos semelhantes em áreas próximas aos limites geograficamente constituídos pelo estudo e heterogeneidade de eventos num mesmo território. CONCLUSÕES: Identificou-se uma relação entre desigualdades sociais e mortalidade infantil, segundo os critérios de condições de vida estabelecidos para este estudo, entretanto, não houve distribuição homogênea nos quatro estratos populacionais, revelando dificuldades em utilizá-los como parâmetros para desigualdades sociais em grandes centros urbanos.

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RESUMO - A prevalência da obesidade não teve alterações significativas em Portugal. Uma vez que os recursos são escassos e é cada vez mais premente distribuí-los de forma racional, torna-se importante conhecer o impacto económico da obesidade para o país e perceber se os custos se alteraram. Objectivo: Actualizar, à luz de evidência mais recente, a estimativa dos custos directos com internamento hospitalar atribuíveis à obesidade, em Portugal, no ano 2008. Metodologia: Foi estimado o custo directo da obesidade, na componente internamento, a partir da metodologia custo da doença, utilizando uma abordagem baseada na prevalência. Os dados da prevalência advém do estudo epidemiológico mais recente em Portugal (14,4%). Os valores de risco relativo utilizados provêm da meta análise epidemiológica mais completa. Foi calculado, a partir destes dados, o risco atribuível populacional (RAP) de cada patologia. Através da base de dados nacional dos episódios de internamento, fez-se uma pesquisa de todos os episódios de internamento relativos às comorbilidades associadas à obesidade e aplicou-se o respectivo RAP. Com base na portaria n.º 839-A/2009 de 31 Julho atribuíramse os custos. Resultados: Os custos directos com a obesidade, na componente internamento, no ano 2008 foram de 85,9 milhões de euros, o que corresponde a 0,92% da despesa total em saúde. Os três maiores contribuintes para esta despesa são as patologias do sistema circulatório e cerebrovascular, a osteoartrite e os episódios relativos ao tratamento da obesidade em si. Conclusões: O impacto económico relativo ao internamento da obesidade diminuiu em Portugal. Este estudo surge então, como ponto de partida para estudar os custos totais com a obesidade e a efectividade das estratégias de prevenção.

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RESUMO - Visa-se explicitar a origem, a razão de ser, a natureza e o que se perspectiva da relação entre a Epidemiologia e a Saúde Pública, através de uma leitura histórica. As duas entidades foram-se definindo e fazendo sentido em conjunto, com sucessos e, também, muita polémica, desde há milénios e até meados do século XIX. Nesta época, uma combinação de circunstâncias proporcionou-lhes uma explosão de crescimento e de definição, de par com várias outras áreas disciplinares. Desde o antigo relato bíblico de como boa alimentação explica o bom estado de saúde, até à valorização científica das condicionantes sociais e económicas da saúde por Marmot e Rose, passando por «miasmas» causando doença e pela deslocação do conceito de risco individual de saúde para o de risco populacional — com as implicações inerentes a essa importante inovação —, este percurso permite identificar as fundações de tão notável simbiose, explicar o estado presente, vê-la evoluir e achar nela o significado do património hoje disponível, e o que ele promete. Algumas discrepâncias quanto à designação dos seus métodos, bem como a contínua discussão quanto à sua verdadeira natureza e orientação futura, atestam a juventude da Epidemiologia como disciplina científica. Entretanto, a Saúde Pública esforça-se por manter a sua essência integradora, à medida que outras disciplinas contribuem mais para que concretize os seus objectivos; é desafiada pela exposição das populações, em larga escala, a factores de doença, por vezes de intensidade mínima, e pelo surgimento de novas doenças ou a ampliação do volume de outras na população, muitas vezes não respeitando fronteiras. A história dessa simbiose mostra bem que conhecer o modo como uma doença se origina permite controlá-la na população, ou mesmo evitá-la, e que é grande o número de problemas que, em sinergia, as duas disciplinas podem clarificar e resolver. Assim, a Epidemiologia oferece à Saúde Pública explicações (olhos, inteligência e linguagem) para os problemas de saúde das populações — o que permite à segunda saber sobre o quê agir —, cenários de possível evolução dos problemas — o que permite aos decisores optarem em função de diferentes pressupostos, sobre como agir — e capacidade de juízo sobre os resultados das acções empreendidas, em simultâneo com a elevação do nível de consciência, de compreensão e de intervenção quanto ao que se está a passar, tanto pelos profissionais, como pela população — transferência do conhecimento. Facilmente se antecipa que a relação entre as duas disciplinas irá evoluir para maior complexidade e, também, solicitação e exigência da Saúde Pública sobre a Epidemiologia, que terá que corresponder em utilidade. E esta, continuando a subespecializar-se e a sofisticar-se tanto nos métodos, como nos enfoques sobre categorias específicas de factores, precisará de progredir muito na gestão da sua consistência enquanto corpo de conhecimento integrado e com peculiaridades metodológicas, à semelhança da Saúde Pública.O modo como evoluirá a relação entre ambas depende ainda da evolução dos próprios problemas, conceitos, teorias e soluções relacionados com a saúde das populações, e ainda do desenvolvimento das demais disciplinas chamadas à integração por ambas, para enfrentarem esses desafios. Nomeadamente, a Epidemiologia terá que gerir com perícia dificuldades já identificadas, como: incorporar métodos qualitativos de investigação na sua fortíssima tradição e cultura quantitativa; operacionalizar satisfatoriamente o conceito de «risco atribuível na população», ao serviço da definição de prioridades de acção dirigida às necessidades de saúde; aperfeiçoar modelos de interpretação causal que respeitem a multicausalidade; aproveitar as técnicas estatísticas de análise multivariada, sem se perder na abstracção dos seus modelos; desenvolver a investigação nas dimensões positivas de saúde, além da doença, para contribuir melhor para a realização da Saúde Pública, sua principal cliente e fornecedora de oportunidades.--------------------------ABSTRACT - The aim of the author is to explicit the origin, the rationale, the nature and the prospects of the relationship between Epidemiology and Public health, through an historic approach. The two entities have been defining and making sense together, by achieving successes, but also with much controversy, since millennia ago, until mid XIX century. A combination of circumstances provided them the opportunity for an explosion of growth and definition, then, alongside several other disciplines. From the ancient biblical report on how good food explains good health, up to the scientific appreciation of both social and economical constraints to health by Marmot and Rose, passing through «miasma» causing disease and through displacing from individual health risk to population risk — with the inherent implications of that important innovation —, this route allows the identification of the foundations of such remarkable symbiosis, the explanation of current status, to see its evolution and find in it the meaning of today’s heritage and what it promises. Some discrepancies on the name of its methods, as well as the continuing discussion about its true nature and future orientation, attest Epidemiology’s youth as a scientific discipline. Meanwhile, Public Health strives to keep its integrating essence, while other disciplines increasingly contribute so that it achieves its objectives; it is challenged by large scale population exposure to disease factors, sometimes with a minimum intensity, and by new diseases emerging in the population or by old ones getting amplified, often not respecting regions boundaries. The history of such a symbiosis shows that knowing the way a disease is generated allows to control it in the population, or even to avoid it, and that the number of problems that the two disciplines are able to clarify and solve together in synergy is considerable. Therefore, Epidemiology offers Public Health explanations (eyes, intelligence and language) for populations’s health problems — allowing that the latter knows on what to act —, scenarios on how problems may tend to evolve — allowing decision-makers to make their choices as a function of different assumptions, on how to act — and judgement capabilities on the results of already undertaken actions, accompanied by the raising of conscience level, understanding and intervention of what is going on by both professionals and the population – knowledge transfer. It is easy to anticipate that the relationship between both disciplines will develop towards increasing complexity and demand from Public Health to Epidemiology, and that this one will have to correspond in usefulness. And the latter, while continuing its subspecialisation and sophistication either in its methods, or in its approaches to specific factor categories, will need to progress in managing its consistency as an integrated body of knowledge having methodological peculiarities, similarly to Public Health. Further, the way the relationship between both will evolve depends on the evolution of the problems themselves, of the concepts, theories and solutions related to the health of populations, and on the development of remaining disciplines called to integration by both, in other to face those problems. Namely, Epidemiology will have to manage with expertise some already known difficulties, as: the inclusion of qualitative research methods in its very strong quantitative tradition and culture; to grant satisfactory operation to the «population attributable risk» concept, in support to the definition of action priorities envisaging health needs; to improve causal interpretation models that comply with multicausality; to take advantage of multivariate statistical techniques, without get

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Data on chronic respiratory diseases (CRD) are scarce or unavailable in most African countries. We aimed to determine the prevalence of CRD and associated risk factors in Cape Verde, at the primary healthcare level.