Attributable fraction of work accidents related to occupational noise exposure in a Southeastern city of Brazil

Noise is the most frequent type of occupational exposure and can lead to both auditory and extra-auditory dysfunction as well as increasing the risk of work accidents. The purpose of this study was to estimate the attributable fraction of work accidents related to occupational noise exposure in a medium-sized city in Southeast Brazil. In this hospital-based case-control study, including 600 cases and 822 controls, the odds ratio of work accidents (controlled for several covariables) was obtained classifying occupational noise exposure into four levels and determining the prevalence at each level. Based on these data, the calculated attributable fraction was 0.3041 (95%CI: 0.2341-0.3676), i.e., 30% of work accidents in the study area were statistically associated with occupational noise exposure. The authors discuss the causes of this association and the implications for the prevention of work accidents.

Fraction of work-related accidents attributable to occupational noise in the city of Botucatu, São Paulo, Brazil

Background: Noise is the most common agent of occupational exposure. It may induce both auditory and extraauditory dysfunction and increase the risk of work accidents. The purpose of this study was to estimate the fraction of accidents attributable to noise occupational exposure in a mid-size city located in southeastern Brazil. Materials and Methods: In this population case-control study, which included 108 cases and 324 controls, the incidence rate ratio of work accidents controlled for several covariables was obtained by classifying occupational noise exposure into three levels, as well as determining the prevalence in each level. Results: Based on these data, the attributable fraction was estimated as 0.6391 (95 CI = 0.2341-0.3676), i.e., 63 of the work accidents that took place in the study site were statistically associated with occupational noise exposure. Discussion: The causes of this association as well as its implications in the prevention of work accidents are discussed.

Challenges and approaches to estimating mortality attributable to the use of selected illicit drugs

A number of unique challenges are faced when attempting to estimate mortality attributable to illicit drugs. The hidden nature of illicit drug use creates difficulties in quantifying the prevalence of such use; identifying adverse health effects associated with exposure, and calculating the risk of these effects. The use of cohort studies of drug users allows the identification of causes of mortality associated with drug use and the determination of the risk of these causes. This risk estimate can then be used in conjunction with estimates of the prevalence of drug use to, extrapolate the burden of mortality. We identify a number of such studies and present some solutions to the major challenges faced when attempting to estimate the global burden of mortality attributable to illicit drug use. Copyright (C) 2001 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Estimating attributable mortality due to nosocomial infections acquired in intensive care units.

BACKGROUND: The strength of the association between intensive care unit (ICU)-acquired nosocomial infections (NIs) and mortality might differ according to the methodological approach taken. OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between ICU-acquired NIs and mortality using the concept of population-attributable fraction (PAF) for patient deaths caused by ICU-acquired NIs in a large cohort of critically ill patients. SETTING: Eleven ICUs of a French university hospital. DESIGN: We analyzed surveillance data on ICU-acquired NIs collected prospectively during the period from 1995 through 2003. The primary outcome was mortality from ICU-acquired NI stratified by site of infection. A matched-pair, case-control study was performed. Each patient who died before ICU discharge was defined as a case patient, and each patient who survived to ICU discharge was defined as a control patient. The PAF was calculated after adjustment for confounders by use of conditional logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Among 8,068 ICU patients, a total of 1,725 deceased patients were successfully matched with 1,725 control patients. The adjusted PAF due to ICU-acquired NI for patients who died before ICU discharge was 14.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 14.4%-14.8%). Stratified by the type of infection, the PAF was 6.1% (95% CI, 5.7%-6.5%) for pulmonary infection, 3.2% (95% CI, 2.8%-3.5%) for central venous catheter infection, 1.7% (95% CI, 0.9%-2.5%) for bloodstream infection, and 0.0% (95% CI, -0.4% to 0.4%) for urinary tract infection. CONCLUSIONS: ICU-acquired NI had an important effect on mortality. However, the statistical association between ICU-acquired NI and mortality tended to be less pronounced in findings based on the PAF than in study findings based on estimates of relative risk. Therefore, the choice of methods does matter when the burden of NI needs to be assessed.

Alcohol attributable burden of incidence of cancer in eight European countries based on results from prospective cohort study.

Objective To compute the burden of cancer attributable to current and former alcohol consumption in eight European countries based on direct relative risk estimates from a cohort study. Design Combination of prospective cohort study with representative population based data on alcohol exposure. Setting Eight countries (France, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Greece, Germany, Denmark) participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Participants 109 118 men and 254 870 women, mainly aged 37-70. Main outcome measures Hazard rate ratios expressing the relative risk of cancer incidence for former and current alcohol consumption among EPIC participants. Hazard rate ratios combined with representative information on alcohol consumption to calculate alcohol attributable fractions of causally related cancers by country and sex. Partial alcohol attributable fractions for consumption higher than the recommended upper limit (two drinks a day for men with about 24 g alcohol, one for women with about 12 g alcohol) and the estimated total annual number of cases of alcohol attributable cancer. Results If we assume causality, among men and women, 10% (95% confidence interval 7 to 13%) and 3% (1 to 5%) of the incidence of total cancer was attributable to former and current alcohol consumption in the selected European countries. For selected cancers the figures were 44% (31 to 56%) and 25% (5 to 46%) for upper aerodigestive tract, 33% (11 to 54%) and 18% (−3 to 38%) for liver, 17% (10 to 25%) and 4% (−1 to 10%) for colorectal cancer for men and women, respectively, and 5.0% (2 to 8%) for female breast cancer. A substantial part of the alcohol attributable fraction in 2008 was associated with alcohol consumption higher than the recommended upper limit: 33 037 of 178 578 alcohol related cancer cases in men and 17 470 of 397 043 alcohol related cases in women. Conclusions In western Europe, an important proportion of cases of cancer can be attributable to alcohol consumption, especially consumption higher than the recommended upper limits. These data support current political efforts to reduce or to abstain from alcohol consumption to reduce the incidence of cancer.

Relatedness and HLA-DRB1 typing may discriminate the magnitude of the genetic susceptibility to tuberculosis using a household contact model

Background Tuberculosis clusters in families may be due to increased household exposure, shared genetic factors, or both. Household contact studies are useful to control exposure because socioeconomic and environmental conditions are similar to all subjects, allowing the evaluation of the contribution of relatedness to disease development. Methods In this study, the familial aggregation of tuberculosis using relatedness and a specific inherited marker (HLA-DRB1) was evaluated. Fifty families, which had at least two cases of tuberculosis diagnosed within the past 5 years, were selected from a cohort of tuberculosis carried out in Recife, Brazil. The first case diagnosed was considered to be a primary case. The secondary attack rate of tuberculosis in household contacts was estimated according to the degree of relatedness. The relative risk of having tuberculosis based on the degree of relatedness household and the population attributable fraction to relatedness were also estimated. HLA-DRB1 typing and attributable etiologic/preventive fractions were calculated among sick and healthy household contacts. Results Compared to unrelated contacts, the relative risk for tuberculosis adjusted for age was 1.38 (95% CI 0.86 to 2.21). Relatedness contributed 23% to the development of tuberculosis at the population levels. The HLA-DRB1*04 allele group (OR = 2.44; p =0.0324; etiologic fraction =0.15) was overrepresented and the DRB1*15 allele group (OR=0.48; p=0.0488; protective fraction=0.19) was underrepresented among household contacts exhibiting tuberculosis. The presence of DRB1 shared alleles between primary cases and their contacts was a risk factor for tuberculosis (p=0.0281). Conclusion This household contact model together with the utilisation of two genetic variables permitted the evaluation of genetic factors contributing towards tuberculosis development.

Suicide in urban New South Wales, Australia 1985-1994: Socio-economic and migrant interactions

Variation of suicide with socio-economic status (SES) in urban NSW (Australia) during 1985-1994, by sex and country or region of birth, was examined using Poisson regression analysis of vital statistics and population data (age greater than or similar to 15 yr). Quintiles of SES were defined by municipality of residence and comparisons of suicide by SES were adjusted for age and country (or region) of birth (COB), and examined by COB. Risk of suicide in females was 28% that of males for all adults and 21% for youth (age 15-24 yr). Suicide risk was lower in males from southern Europe, Middle East and Asia, and higher in northern and eastern European males, compared to the Australian-born. Risks for suicide increased significantly with decreasing SES in males, but not in females. The relationship of male suicide and SES was stronger when controlled for COB. For males, the relative risk of suicide, adjusted for age and COB, was 66% higher in the lowest SES quintile compared to the highest quintile, and 39% higher for youth (age 15-24 yr). For male suicide, the population attributable fraction for SES (less than the highest quintile) was 27%. Analysis of SES differentials in male suicide according to COB indicated a significant inverse suicide gradient in relation to SES for the Australian-born and those burn in New Zealand and the United Kingdom or fire. but not in non-English speaking COB groups, except for Asia. For Australian-born males, suicide risk was 71% higher in the lowest SES group (compared to the highest), adjusted for age. These findings indicate that SES plays an important role in male suicide rates among the Australian-born and migrants from English-speaking countries and Asia, and among youth; but not in female suicide, nor suicide in most non-English speaking migrant groups. Reduction in SES differentials through economic and social policies may reduce male suicide in lower SES groups and should be seen to be at least as important as individual level interventions. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Absolute risk of breast cancer for Australian women with a family history

Background: The purpose of the present paper was to estimate the absolute risk of breast cancer over the remainder of a lifetime in Australian women with different categories of family history. Methods: Age-specific breast cancer incidence rates were adjusted for screening effects, and rates in those with no family history were estimated using the attributable fraction (AF). Relative risks from a published meta-analysis were applied to obtain incidence rates for different categories of family history, and age-specific incidence was converted to cumulative risk of breast cancer. The risk estimates were based upon Australian population statistics and published relative risks. Breast cancer incidence was from New South Wales women for 1996. The AF was calculated using prevalence of a family history of breast cancer from data on Queensland women. The cumulative absolute risk of breast cancer was calculated from decade and mid-decade ages to age 79 years, not adjusted for competing causes of death. Results: Lifetime risk is approximately 8.6% (1 in 12) for the general population and 7.8% (1 in 13) for those without a family history. Women with one relative affected have lifetime risks of 1 in 6-8 and those with two relatives affected have lifetime risks of 1 in 4-6. The cumulative residual lifetime risk decreases with advancing age; by age 60 years all groups with only one relative affected have well above a 90% probability of not developing breast cancer to age 79 years. Conclusions: These Australian risk statistics are useful for public information and in the clinical setting. Risks given here apply to women with average breast cancer risk from other risk factors.

HRT and breast cancer: Impact on population risk and incidence

This study has calculated the potential impact of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) on breast cancer incidence in Australia and has estimated how changes in prescribing HRT to women could affect this risk. The effects of HRT on breast cancer incidence was estimated using the attributable fraction technique with prevalence data derived from the 2001 Australian Health Survey and published rates of breast cancer relative risks from HRT use. In Australia, 12% of adult women were current HRT users and in 2001, 11783 breast cancers were reported. Of these, 1066 (9%) were potentially attributable to HRT. Restricting HRT use to women aged less than 65 years, ceasing HRT prescribing after 10 years or limiting combined oestrogen and progesterone HRT to five years (but otherwise keeping prescription levels to 2001 levels) may reduce the annual breast cancer caseload by 280 (2.4%), 555 (4.7%) or 674 (5.7%), respectively. In conclusion, this study has demonstrated that when HRT prevalence is relatively high, the effect on breast cancer incidence in the population will be significant. A small modification in HRT prescribing practices may impact breast cancer incidence in Australia with associated financial and health care provision implications. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hormone replacement therapy and breast cancer risk in California

Numerous studies have documented increased breast cancer risks with hormone replacement therapy (HRT), but these do not give a woman her specific absolute risk for the remainder of her life. This article estimates the magnitude of the effect of HRT on breast cancer incidence in California and calculates a woman's cumulative risk of breast cancer with different formulations and durations of HRT use. The effects of HRT on the underlying breast cancer incidence were estimated using the attributable fraction method, applying HRT prevalence data from the 2001 California Health Interview Survey and published rates of higher relative risk (RR) from HRT use from the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) study and Million Women's Survey (MWS). The annual number of breast cancers potentially attributable to HRT in California was estimated, along with individual cumulative risk of breast cancer for various ages to 79 years according to HRT use, duration, and formulation. Using the WHI data, 829 of 19,000 breast cancers (4.3%) in California may be attributable to HRT This figure increases to 3401 (17.4%) when the MWS RRs are applied. Use of estrogen-only HRT or short-term (approximately 5 years) use of combined HRT has a minimal effect on the cumulative risk calculated to the age of 79 years; application of the MWS data to a Californian woman commencing HRT at the age of 50 years (no HRT, 8.5%; estrogen only, 8.6%; combined, 9.1%). Prolonged (approximately 10 years) use of combined HRT increases the cumulative risk to 10.3%. This article demonstrates that HRT will generate a small additional risk of breast cancer in an individual. The reduction in perimenopausal symptoms may be considered sufficient to warrant this extra risk. However, this view needs to be balanced because the small increases in individual risk will be magnified, producing a noticeable change in population cancer caseload where HRT use is high.

Impact of specific sensitization on asthma and rhinitis in young Brazilian and Chilean adults

Background The pattern of associations and the attributable fractions (AF) of atopic conditions due to specific sensitizations vary between countries. Objective To assess the level of associations and AF between sensitization to five allergens and atopic conditions in two settings. Methods We studied 2063 Brazilians and 1231 Chileans of both sexes using representative samples selected at birth in the 1970s. Information on asthma and rhinitis was based on the European Community Respiratory Health Survey questionnaire. We assessed bronchial hyperresponsiveness (BHR) to methacholine and sensitization to Dermatophagoides pteronyssinus, cat, dog, grass blend and Alternaria alternata. Results The prevalence of sensitization to one or more allergens was 50% in Brazilians and 22% in Chileans. The level of associations varied according to the outcome used. Strong associations between sensitization and asthma, defined as wheeze or awakening with breathlessness at night and positive BHR, were found for each of the five allergens in Chileans [varying from odds ratio (OR) 3.24, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.47, 7.15 for D. pteronyssinus to 8.44, 95% CI 3.82, 18.66 for cat], whereas the level of associations was restricted to D. pteronyssinus, cat and dog in Brazilians and was somewhat weaker (highest OR 3.90, 95% CI 2.80-5.44). The AF of sensitization on asthma was 54% in Brazil and 44% in Chile. D. pteronyssinus and cat made an independent contribution to asthma in the two samples. The patterns of associations between sensitization and rhino-conjunctivitis were similar to those for asthma. Conclusion The associations between sensitization, and asthma and rhinitis were high in Chile and moderately high in Brazil, but the AF were higher in Brazil, reflecting a higher prevalence of sensitization. In Brazil, dust mite had the greatest impact on atopic conditions while in Chile several allergens had an impact. Sensitization is as serious a problem in Chile and Brazil as in developed countries.

Impact numbers: measures of risk factor impact on the whole population from case-control and cohort studies

Objective: To describe new measures of risk from case-control and cohort studies, which are simple to understand and relate to numbers of the population at risk. Design: Theoretical development of new measures of risk. Setting: Review of literature and previously described measures. Main results: The new measures are: (1) the population impact number (PIN), the number of those in the whole population among whom one case is attributable to the exposure or risk factor (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the population attributable risk),- (2) the case impact number (CIN) the number of people with the disease or outcome for whom one case will be attributable to the exposure or risk factor (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the population attributable fraction); (3) the exposure impact number (EIN) the number of people with the exposure among whom one excess case is attributable to the exposure (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the attributable risk); (4) the exposed cases impact number (ECIN) the number of exposed cases among whom one case is attributable to the exposure (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the aetiological fraction). The impact number reflects the number of people in each population (the whole population, the cases, all those exposed, and the exposed cases) among whom one case is attributable to the particular risk factor. Conclusions: These new measures should help communicate the impact on a population, of estimates of risk derived from cohort or case-control studies.

ERICA: prevalences of hypertension and obesity in Brazilian adolescents

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To estimate the prevalence of arterial hypertension and obesity and the population attributable fraction of hypertension that is due to obesity in Brazilian adolescents. METHODS Data from participants in the Brazilian Study of Cardiovascular Risks in Adolescents (ERICA), which was the first national school-based, cross-section study performed in Brazil were evaluated. The sample was divided into 32 geographical strata and clusters from 32 schools and classes, with regional and national representation. Obesity was classified using the body mass index according to age and sex. Arterial hypertension was defined when the average systolic or diastolic blood pressure was greater than or equal to the 95th percentile of the reference curve. Prevalences and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) of arterial hypertension and obesity, both on a national basis and in the macro-regions of Brazil, were estimated by sex and age group, as were the fractions of hypertension attributable to obesity in the population. RESULTS We evaluated 73,399 students, 55.4% female, with an average age of 14.7 years (SD = 1.6). The prevalence of hypertension was 9.6% (95%CI 9.0-10.3); with the lowest being in the North, 8.4% (95%CI 7.7-9.2) and Northeast regions, 8.4% (95%CI 7.6-9.2), and the highest being in the South, 12.5% (95%CI 11.0-14.2). The prevalence of obesity was 8.4% (95%CI 7.9-8.9), which was lower in the North region and higher in the South region. The prevalences of arterial hypertension and obesity were higher in males. Obese adolescents presented a higher prevalence of hypertension, 28.4% (95%CI 25.5-31.2), than overweight adolescents, 15.4% (95%CI 17.0-13.8), or eutrophic adolescents, 6.3% (95%CI 5.6-7.0). The fraction of hypertension attributable to obesity was 17.8%. CONCLUSIONS ERICA was the first nationally representative Brazilian study providing prevalence estimates of hypertension in adolescents. Regional and sex differences were observed. The study indicates that the control of obesity would lower the prevalence of hypertension among Brazilian adolescents by 1/5.

Risk factors for head and neck cancer in young adults : a pooled analysis in the INHANCE consortium

BACKGROUND: Increasing incidence of head and neck cancer (HNC) in young adults has been reported. We aimed to compare the role of major risk factors and family history of cancer in HNC in young adults and older patients. METHODS: We pooled data from 25 case-control studies and conducted separate analyses for adults ≤45 years old ('young adults', 2010 cases and 4042 controls) and >45 years old ('older adults', 17 700 cases and 22 704 controls). Using logistic regression with studies treated as random effects, we estimated adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: The young group of cases had a higher proportion of oral tongue cancer (16.0% in women; 11.0% in men) and unspecified oral cavity / oropharynx cancer (16.2%; 11.1%) and a lower proportion of larynx cancer (12.1%; 16.6%) than older adult cases. The proportions of never smokers or never drinkers among female cases were higher than among male cases in both age groups. Positive associations with HNC and duration or pack-years of smoking and drinking were similar across age groups. However, the attributable fractions (AFs) for smoking and drinking were lower in young when compared with older adults (AFs for smoking in young women, older women, young men and older men, respectively, = 19.9% (95% CI = 9.8%, 27.9%), 48.9% (46.6%, 50.8%), 46.2% (38.5%, 52.5%), 64.3% (62.2%, 66.4%); AFs for drinking = 5.3% (-11.2%, 18.0%), 20.0% (14.5%, 25.0%), 21.5% (5.0%, 34.9%) and 50.4% (46.1%, 54.3%). A family history of early-onset cancer was associated with HNC risk in the young [OR = 2.27 (95% CI = 1.26, 4.10)], but not in the older adults [OR = 1.10 (0.91, 1.31)]. The attributable fraction for family history of early-onset cancer was 23.2% (8.60% to 31.4%) in young compared with 2.20% (-2.41%, 5.80%) in older adults. CONCLUSIONS: Differences in HNC aetiology according to age group may exist. The lower AF of cigarette smoking and alcohol drinking in young adults may be due to the reduced length of exposure due to the lower age. Other characteristics, such as those that are inherited, may play a more important role in HNC in young adults compared with older adults.

An index to identify stroke-related vs incidental patent foramen ovale in cryptogenic stroke.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to create an index to stratify cryptogenic stroke (CS) patients with patent foramen ovale (PFO) by their likelihood that the stroke was related to their PFO. METHODS: Using data from 12 component studies, we used generalized linear mixed models to predict the presence of PFO among patients with CS, and derive a simple index to stratify patients with CS. We estimated the stratum-specific PFO-attributable fraction and stratum-specific stroke/TIA recurrence rates. RESULTS: Variables associated with a PFO in CS patients included younger age, the presence of a cortical stroke on neuroimaging, and the absence of these factors: diabetes, hypertension, smoking, and prior stroke or TIA. The 10-point Risk of Paradoxical Embolism score is calculated from these variables so that the youngest patients with superficial strokes and without vascular risk factors have the highest score. PFO prevalence increased from 23% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 19%-26%) in those with 0 to 3 points to 73% (95% CI: 66%-79%) in those with 9 or 10 points, corresponding to attributable fraction estimates of approximately 0% to 90%. Kaplan-Meier estimated stroke/TIA 2-year recurrence rates decreased from 20% (95% CI: 12%-28%) in the lowest Risk of Paradoxical Embolism score stratum to 2% (95% CI: 0%-4%) in the highest. CONCLUSION: Clinical characteristics identify CS patients who vary markedly in PFO prevalence, reflecting clinically important variation in the probability that a discovered PFO is likely to be stroke-related vs incidental. Patients in strata more likely to have stroke-related PFOs have lower recurrence risk.