Assessment of Convective Activity Using Stability Indices as Inferred from Radiosonde and MODIS Data

The combined use of both radiosonde data and three-dimensional satellite derived data over ocean and land is useful for a better understanding of atmospheric thermodynamics. Here, an attempt is made to study the ther-modynamic structure of convective atmosphere during pre-monsoon season over southwest peninsular India utilizing satellite derived data and radiosonde data. The stability indices were computed for the selected stations over southwest peninsular India viz: Thiruvananthapuram and Cochin, using the radiosonde data for five pre- monsoon seasons. The stability indices studied for the region are Showalter Index (SI), K Index (KI), Lifted In-dex (LI), Total Totals Index (TTI), Humidity Index (HI), Deep Convective Index (DCI) and thermodynamic pa-rameters such as Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and Convective Inhibition Energy (CINE). The traditional Showalter Index has been modified to incorporate the thermodynamics over tropical region. MODIS data over South Peninsular India is also used for the study. When there is a convective system over south penin-sular India, the value of LI over the region is less than −4. On the other hand, the region where LI is more than 2 is comparatively stable without any convection. Similarly, when KI values are in the range 35 to 40, there is a possibility for convection. The threshold value for TTI is found to be between 50 and 55. Further, we found that prior to convection, dry bulb temperature at 1000, 850, 700 and 500 hPa is minimum and the dew point tem-perature is a maximum, which leads to increase in relative humidity. The total column water vapor is maximum in the convective region and minimum in the stable region. The threshold values for the different stability indices are found to be agreeing with that reported in literature.

Thermodynamics of Forming Water Clusters at Various Temperatures and Pressures by Gaussian-2, Gaussian-3, Complete Basis Set-QB3, and Complete Basis Set-APNO Model Chemistries; Implications for Atmospheric Chemistry

The Gaussian-2, Gaussian-3, complete basis set- (CBS-) QB3, and CBS-APNO methods have been used to calculate ΔH° and ΔG° values for neutral clusters of water, (H2O)n, where n = 2−6. The structures are similar to those determined from experiment and from previous high-level calculations. The thermodynamic calculations by the G2, G3, and CBS-APNO methods compare well against the estimated MP2(CBS) limit. The cyclic pentamer and hexamer structures release the most heat per hydrogen bond formed of any of the clusters. While the cage and prism forms of the hexamer are the lowest energy structures at very low temperatures, as temperature is increased the cyclic structure is favored. The free energies of cluster formation at different temperatures reveal interesting insights, the most striking being that the cyclic trimer, cyclic tetramer, and cyclic pentamer, like the dimer, should be detectable in the lower troposphere. We predict water dimer concentrations of 9 × 1014 molecules/cm3, water trimer concentrations of 2.6 × 1012 molecules/cm3, tetramer concentrations of approximately 5.8 × 1011 molecules/cm3, and pentamer concentrations of approximately 3.5 × 1010 molecules/cm3 in saturated air at 298 K. These results have important implications for understanding the gas-phase chemistry of the lower troposphere.

Thermodynamics of climate change: generalized sensitivities

Using a recent theoretical approach, we study how global warming impacts the thermodynamics of the climate system by performing experiments with a simplified yet Earth-like climate model. The intensity of the Lorenz energy cycle, the Carnot efficiency, the material entropy production, and the degree of irreversibility of the system change monotonically with the CO2 concentration. Moreover, these quantities feature an approximately linear behaviour with respect to the logarithm of the CO2 concentration in a relatively wide range. These generalized sensitivities suggest that the climate becomes less efficient, more irreversible, and features higher entropy production as it becomes warmer, with changes in the latent heat fluxes playing a predominant role. These results may be of help for explaining recent findings obtained with state of the art climate models regarding how increases in CO2 concentration impact the vertical stratification of the tropical and extratropical atmosphere and the position of the storm tracks.

Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections

The evidence for anthropogenic climate change continues to strengthen, and concerns about severe weather events are increasing. As a result, scientific interest is rapidly shifting from detection and attribution of global climate change to prediction of its impacts at the regional scale. However, nearly everything we have any confidence in when it comes to climate change is related to global patterns of surface temperature, which are primarily controlled by thermodynamics. In contrast, we have much less confidence in atmospheric circulation aspects of climate change, which are primarily controlled by dynamics and exert a strong control on regional climate. Model projections of circulation-related fields, including precipitation, show a wide range of possible outcomes, even on centennial timescales. Sources of uncertainty include low-frequency chaotic variability and the sensitivity to model error of the circulation response to climate forcing. As the circulation response to external forcing appears to project strongly onto existing patterns of variability, knowledge of errors in the dynamics of variability may provide some constraints on model projections. Nevertheless, higher scientific confidence in circulation-related aspects of climate change will be difficult to obtain. For effective decision-making, it is necessary to move to a more explicitly probabilistic, risk-based approach.

Quantum Mechanical Study of Sulfuric Acid Hydration: Atmospheric Implications

The role of the binary nucleation of sulfuric acid in aerosol formation and its implications for global warming is one of the fundamental unsettled questions in atmospheric chemistry. We have investigated the thermodynamics of sulfuric acid hydration using ab initio quantum mechanical methods. For H2SO4(H2O)n where n = 1–6, we used a scheme combining molecular dynamics configurational sampling with high-level ab initio calculations to locate the global and many low lying local minima for each cluster size. For each isomer, we extrapolated the Møller–Plesset perturbation theory (MP2) energies to their complete basis set (CBS) limit and added finite temperature corrections within the rigid-rotor-harmonic-oscillator (RRHO) model using scaled harmonic vibrational frequencies. We found that ionic pair (HSO4–·H3O+)(H2O)n−1 clusters are competitive with the neutral (H2SO4)(H2O)n clusters for n ≥ 3 and are more stable than neutral clusters for n ≥ 4 depending on the temperature. The Boltzmann averaged Gibbs free energies for the formation of H2SO4(H2O)n clusters are favorable in colder regions of the troposphere (T = 216.65–273.15 K) for n = 1–6, but the formation of clusters with n ≥ 5 is not favorable at higher (T > 273.15 K) temperatures. Our results suggest the critical cluster of a binary H2SO4–H2O system must contain more than one H2SO4 and are in concert with recent findings(1) that the role of binary nucleation is small at ambient conditions, but significant at colder regions of the troposphere. Overall, the results support the idea that binary nucleation of sulfuric acid and water cannot account for nucleation of sulfuric acid in the lower troposphere.

Hydration of the Bisulfate Ion: Atmospheric Implications

Using molecular dynamics configurational sampling combined with ab initio energy calculations, we determined the low energy isomers of the bisulfate hydrates. We calculated the CCSD(T) complete basis set (CBS) binding electronic and Gibbs free energies for 53 low energy isomers of HSO4–(H2O)n=1–6 and derived the thermodynamics of adding waters sequentially to the bisulfate ion and its hydrates. Comparing the HSO4–/H2O system to the neutral H2SO4/H2O cluster, water binds more strongly to the anion than it does to the neutral molecules. The difference in the binding thermodynamics of HSO4–/H2O and H2SO4/H2O systems decreases with increasing number of waters. The thermodynamics for the formation of HSO4–(H2O)n=1–5 is favorable at 298.15 K, and that of HSO4–(H2O)n=1–6 is favorable for T < 273.15 K. The HSO4– ion is almost always hydrated at temperatures and relative humidity values encountered in the troposphere. Because the bisulfate ion binds more strongly to sulfuric acid than it does to water, it is expected to play a role in ion-induced nucleation by forming a strong complex with sulfuric acid and water, thus facilitating the formation of a critical nucleus.

Quantum Mechanical Study of Sulfuric Acid Hydration: Atmospheric Implications

The role of the binary nucleation of sulfuric acid in aerosol formation and its implications for global warming is one of the fundamental unsettled questions in atmospheric chemistry. We have investigated the thermodynamics of sulfuric acid hydration using ab initio quantum mechanical methods. For H2SO4(H2O)n where n = 1–6, we used a scheme combining molecular dynamics configurational sampling with high-level ab initio calculations to locate the global and many low lying local minima for each cluster size. For each isomer, we extrapolated the Møller–Plesset perturbation theory (MP2) energies to their complete basis set (CBS) limit and added finite temperature corrections within the rigid-rotor-harmonic-oscillator (RRHO) model using scaled harmonic vibrational frequencies. We found that ionic pair (HSO4–·H3O+)(H2O)n−1clusters are competitive with the neutral (H2SO4)(H2O)n clusters for n ≥ 3 and are more stable than neutral clusters for n ≥ 4 depending on the temperature. The Boltzmann averaged Gibbs free energies for the formation of H2SO4(H2O)n clusters are favorable in colder regions of the troposphere (T = 216.65–273.15 K) for n = 1–6, but the formation of clusters with n ≥ 5 is not favorable at higher (T > 273.15 K) temperatures. Our results suggest the critical cluster of a binary H2SO4–H2O system must contain more than one H2SO4 and are in concert with recent findings(1) that the role of binary nucleation is small at ambient conditions, but significant at colder regions of the troposphere. Overall, the results support the idea that binary nucleation of sulfuric acid and water cannot account for nucleation of sulfuric acid in the lower troposphere.

Combined Analysis Of νμ Disappearance And νμ→νe Appearance In Minos Using Accelerator And Atmospheric Neutrinos.

We report on a new analysis of neutrino oscillations in MINOS using the complete set of accelerator and atmospheric data. The analysis combines the ν(μ) disappearance and ν(e) appearance data using the three-flavor formalism. We measure |Δm(32)(2)| = [2.28-2.46] × 10(-3) eV(2) (68% C.L.) and sin(2)θ(23) = 0.35-0.65 (90% C.L.) in the normal hierarchy, and |Δm(32)(2)| = [2.32-2.53] × 10(-3) eV(2) (68% C.L.) and sin(2)θ(23) = 0.34-0.67 (90% C.L.) in the inverted hierarchy. The data also constrain δ(CP), the θ(23} octant degeneracy and the mass hierarchy; we disfavor 36% (11%) of this three-parameter space at 68% (90%) C.L.

Relationship between the southern annular mode and southern hemisphere atmospheric systems

Seasonal relationship between the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the spatial distribution of the cyclone systems over Southern Hemisphere is investigated for the period 1980 to 1999. In addition, seasonal frontogenesis and rainfall distribution over South America and South Atlantic Ocean during different SAM phases were also analyzed. It is observed that during negative SAM phases the cyclone trajectories move northward when compared to the positive one, and in the South America and South Atlantic sector there is intense frontogenetic activity and positive anomaly precipitation over the Southeast of the South America. In general, SAM positive phase shows opposite signals.

Scavenging processes of atmospheric particulate matter: a numerical modeling of case studies

Below cloud scavenging processes have been investigated considering a numerical simulation, local atmospheric conditions and particulate matter (PM) concentrations, at different sites in Germany. The below cloud scavenging model has been coupled with bulk particulate matter counter TSI (Trust Portacounter dataset, consisting of the variability prediction of the particulate air concentrations during chosen rain events. The TSI samples and meteorological parameters were obtained during three winter Campaigns: at Deuselbach, March 1994, consisting in three different events; Sylt, April 1994 and; Freiburg, March 1995. The results show a good agreement between modeled and observed air concentrations, emphasizing the quality of the conceptual model used in the below cloud scavenging numerical modeling. The results between modeled and observed data have also presented high square Pearson coefficient correlations over 0.7 and significant, except the Freiburg Campaign event. The differences between numerical simulations and observed dataset are explained by the wind direction changes and, perhaps, the absence of advection mass terms inside the modeling. These results validate previous works based on the same conceptual model.

Quantification and source identification of atmospheric particulate polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and their dry deposition fluxes at three sites in Salvador Basin, Brazil, impacted by mobile and stationary sources

The present work has aimed to determine the 16 US EPA priority PAH atmospheric particulate matter levels present in three sites around Salvador, Bahia: (i) Lapa bus station, strongly impacted by heavy-duty diesel vehicles; (ii) Aratu harbor, impacted by an intense movement of goods, and (iii) Bananeira village on Maré Island, a non vehicle-influenced site with activities such as handcraft work and fisheries. Results indicated that BbF (0.130-6.85 ng m-3) is the PAH with highest concentration in samples from Aratu harbor and Bananeira and CRY (0.075-6.85 ng m-3) presented higher concentrations at Lapa station. PAH sources from studied sites were mainly of anthropogenic origin such as gasoline-fueled light-duty vehicles and diesel-fueled heavy-duty vehicles, discharges in the port, diesel burning from ships, dust ressuspension, indoor soot from cooking, and coal and wood combustion for energy production.

Indoor and outdoor atmospheric fungal spores in the São Paulo metropolitan area (Brazil): species and numeric concentrations

The aim of this study was to estimate the indoor and outdoor concentrations of fungal spores in the Metropolitan Area of Sao Paulo (MASP), collected at different sites in winter/spring and summer seasons. The techniques adopted included cultivation (samples collected with impactors) and microscopic enumeration (samples collected with impingers). The overall results showed total concentrations of fungal spores as high as 36,000 per cubic meter, with a large proportion of non culturable spores (around 91 per cent of the total). Penicillium sp. and Aspergillus sp. were the dominant species both indoors and outdoors, in all seasons tested, occurring in more than 30 per cent of homes at very high concentrations of culturable airborne fungi [colony forming units(CFU) m−3]. There was no significant difference between indoor and outdoor concentrations. The total fungal spore concentration found in winter was 19 per cent higher than that in summer. Heat and humidity were the main factors affecting fungal growth; however, a non-linear response to these factors was found. Thus, temperatures below 16°C and above 25°C caused a reduction in the concentration (CFU m−3) of airborne fungi, which fits with MASP climatalogy. The same pattern was observed for humidity, although not as clearly as with temperature given the usual high relative humidity (above 70 per cent) in the study area. These results are relevant for public health interventions that aim to reduce respiratory morbidity among susceptible populations

Observational Characterization of the Downward Atmospheric Longwave Radiation at the Surface in the City of Sao Paulo

This work describes the seasonal and diurnal variations of downward longwave atmospheric irradiance (LW) at the surface in Sao Paulo, Brazil, using 5-min-averaged values of LW, air temperature, relative humidity, and solar radiation observed continuously and simultaneously from 1997 to 2006 on a micrometeorological platform, located at the top of a 4-story building. An objective procedure, including 2-step filtering and dome emission effect correction, was used to evaluate the quality of the 9-yr-long LW dataset. The comparison between LW values observed and yielded by the Surface Radiation Budget project shows spatial and temporal agreement, indicating that monthly and annual average values of LW observed in one point of Sao Paulo can be used as representative of the entire metropolitan region of Sao Paulo. The maximum monthly averaged value of the LW is observed during summer (389 +/- 14 W m(-2): January), and the minimum is observed during winter (332 +/- 12 W m(-2); July). The effective emissivity follows the LW and shows a maximum in summer (0.907 +/- 0.032; January) and a minimum in winter (0.818 +/- 0.029; June). The mean cloud effect, identified objectively by comparing the monthly averaged values of the LW during clear-sky days and all-sky conditions, intensified the monthly average LW by about 32.0 +/- 3.5 W m(-2) and the atmospheric effective emissivity by about 0.088 +/- 0.024. In August, the driest month of the year in Sao Paulo, the diurnal evolution of the LW shows a minimum (325 +/- 11 W m(-2)) at 0900 LT and a maximum (345 12 W m-2) at 1800 LT, which lags behind (by 4 h) the maximum diurnal variation of the screen temperature. The diurnal evolution of effective emissivity shows a minimum (0.781 +/- 0.027) during daytime and a maximum (0.842 +/- 0.030) during nighttime. The diurnal evolution of all-sky condition and clear-sky day differences in the effective emissivity remain relatively constant (7% +/- 1%), indicating that clouds do not change the emissivity diurnal pattern. The relationship between effective emissivity and screen air temperature and between effective emissivity and water vapor is complex. During the night, when the planetary boundary layer is shallower, the effective emissivity can be estimated by screen parameters. During the day, the relationship between effective emissivity and screen parameters varies from place to place and depends on the planetary boundary layer process. Because the empirical expressions do not contain enough information about the diurnal variation of the vertical stratification of air temperature and moisture in Sao Paulo, they are likely to fail in reproducing the diurnal variation of the surface emissivity. The most accurate way to estimate the LW for clear-sky conditions in Sao Paulo is to use an expression derived from a purely empirical approach.

The Coupled Aerosol and Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CATT-BRAMS) - Part 1: Model description and evaluation

We introduce the Coupled Aerosol and Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CATT-BRAMS). CATT-BRAMS is an on-line transport model fully consistent with the simulated atmospheric dynamics. Emission sources from biomass burning and urban-industrial-vehicular activities for trace gases and from biomass burning aerosol particles are obtained from several published datasets and remote sensing information. The tracer and aerosol mass concentration prognostics include the effects of sub-grid scale turbulence in the planetary boundary layer, convective transport by shallow and deep moist convection, wet and dry deposition, and plume rise associated with vegetation fires in addition to the grid scale transport. The radiation parameterization takes into account the interaction between the simulated biomass burning aerosol particles and short and long wave radiation. The atmospheric model BRAMS is based on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), with several improvements associated with cumulus convection representation, soil moisture initialization and surface scheme tuned for the tropics, among others. In this paper the CATT-BRAMS model is used to simulate carbon monoxide and particulate material (PM(2.5)) surface fluxes and atmospheric transport during the 2002 LBA field campaigns, conducted during the transition from the dry to wet season in the southwest Amazon Basin. Model evaluation is addressed with comparisons between model results and near surface, radiosondes and airborne measurements performed during the field campaign, as well as remote sensing derived products. We show the matching of emissions strengths to observed carbon monoxide in the LBA campaign. A relatively good comparison to the MOPITT data, in spite of the fact that MOPITT a priori assumptions imply several difficulties, is also obtained.

The Coupled Aerosol and Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CATT-BRAMS) - Part 2: Model sensitivity to the biomass burning

We describe an estimation technique for biomass burning emissions in South America based on a combination of remote-sensing fire products and field observations, the Brazilian Biomass Burning Emission Model (3BEM). For each fire pixel detected by remote sensing, the mass of the emitted tracer is calculated based on field observations of fire properties related to the type of vegetation burning. The burnt area is estimated from the instantaneous fire size retrieved by remote sensing, when available, or from statistical properties of the burn scars. The sources are then spatially and temporally distributed and assimilated daily by the Coupled Aerosol and Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CATT-BRAMS) in order to perform the prognosis of related tracer concentrations. Three other biomass burning inventories, including GFEDv2 and EDGAR, are simultaneously used to compare the emission strength in terms of the resultant tracer distribution. We also assess the effect of using the daily time resolution of fire emissions by including runs with monthly-averaged emissions. We evaluate the performance of the model using the different emission estimation techniques by comparing the model results with direct measurements of carbon monoxide both near-surface and airborne, as well as remote sensing derived products. The model results obtained using the 3BEM methodology of estimation introduced in this paper show relatively good agreement with the direct measurements and MOPITT data product, suggesting the reliability of the model at local to regional scales.