A Predictive Thermal Habitat Model for Harbor Seals in the Northwest Atlantic

We analyzed projections of current and future ambient temperatures along the eastern United States in relationship to the thermal tolerance of harbor seals in air. Using the earth systems model (HadGEM2-ES) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, which are indicative of two different atmospheric CO2 concentrations, we were able to examine possible shifts in distribution based on three metrics: current preferences, the thermal limit of juveniles, and the thermal limits of adults. Our analysis focused on average ambient temperatures because harbor seals are least effective at regulating their body temperature in air, making them most susceptible to rising air temperatures in the coming years. Our study focused on the months of May, June, and August from 2041-2060 (2050) and 2061-2080 (2070) as these are the historic months in which harbor seals are known to annually come ashore to pup, breed, and molt. May, June, and August are also some of the warmest months of the year. We found that breeding colonies along the eastern United States will be limited by the thermal tolerance of juvenile harbor seals in air, while their foraging range will extend as far south as the thermal tolerance of adult harbor seals in air. Our analysis revealed that in 2070, harbor seal pups should be absent from the United States coastline nearing the end of the summer due to exceptionally high air temperatures.

Toxic pollutants, health indices and population dynamics of Harbor Seals in San Francisco Bay, 1989-1992

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Social structure and underwater behavior of harbor seals in southern Monterey Bay, California

To understand harbor seal social and mating strategies, I examined site fidelity, seasonal abundance and distribution, herd integrity, and underwater behavior of individual harbor seals in southern Monterey Bay. Individual harbor seals (n = 444) were identified by natural markings and represented greater than 80% of an estimated 520 seals within this community. Year to year fidelity of individual harbor seals to southern Monterey Bay coastline was 84% (n = 388), and long-term associations (>2 yrs) among individuals were common (>40%). Consistent with these long-term associations, harbor seals were highly social underwater throughout the year. Underwater social behavior included three primary types: (1) visual and acoustic displays, such as vocalizing, surface splashing, and bubble-blowing; (2) playful or agonistic social behavior such as rolling, mounting, attending, and biting; and (3) signal gestures such as head-thrusting, fore-flipper scratch~ng, and growling. Frequency of these types of behavior was related to seal age, gender, season, and resource availability. Underwater behavior had a variety of functions, including promotion of learning and social development, reduction of aggression and preservation of social bonds by maintaining social hierarchy, and facilitation of mate selection during breeding season. Social behavior among adult males was significantly correlated with vocalization characteristics (r = 0.99, X2 = 37.7, p = 0.00087), indicating that seals may assess their competition based on underwater vocalization displays and adopt individual strategies for attracting females during breeding season based on social status. Individual mating strategies may include defending underwater territories, using scramble tactics, and developing social alliances. (PDF contains 105 pages)

Spatial and seasonal relationships between Pacific harbor seals (Phoca vitulina richardii) and their prey, at multiple scales

Knowing where pinnipeds forage is vital to managing and protecting their populations, and for assessing potential interactions with fisheries. We assessed the spatial relationship between the seasonal distribution of Pacific harbor seals (Phoca vitulina richardii) outfitted with satellite transmitters and the seasonal distributions of potential harbor seal prey species in San Francisco Bay, California. Pearson’s correlation coefficients were calculated between the number of harbor seal locations in an area of the San Francisco Bay and the abundance of specific prey species in the same area. The influence of scale on the analyses was assessed by varying the scale of analysis from 1 to 10 km. There was consistency in the prey species targeted by harbor seals year-round, although there were seasonal differences between the most important prey species. The highest correlations between harbor seals and their prey were found for seasonally abundant benthic species, located within about 10 km of the primary haul-out site. Probable foraging habitat for harbor seals was identified, based on areas with high abundances of prey species that were strongly correlated with harbor seal distribution. With comparable local data inputs, this approach has potential application to pinniped management in other areas, and to decisions about the location of marine reserves designed to protect these species.

Comparison of survey methods for estimating abundance of harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) in glacial fjords

The importance of glacial ice habitats to harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) in Alaska has become increasingly apparent. However, enumerating harbor seals hauled out on ice in glacial fjords has been difficult. At Johns Hopkins Inlet in Glacier Bay, Alaska, we compared a shore-based counting method to a large-format aerial photography method to estimate seal abundance. During each aerial survey, shore-based observers simultaneously counted seals from an observation post. Both survey methods incurred errors in double-counting and missing seals, especially when ice movements caused seals to drift between survey zones. Advantages of shore-based counts included the ability to obtain multiple counts for relatively little cost, distinguish pups from adults, and to distinguish mobile seals from shadows or glacial debris of similar size. Aerial photography provided a permanent record of each survey, allowing both a reconciliation of counts in overlapping zones and the documentation of the spatial distribution of seals and ice within the fjord.

New insights into the diets of harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) in the Salish Sea revealed by analysis of fatty acid signatures

Harbor seals (Phoca fvitulina) are an abundant predator along the west coast of North America, and there is considerable interest in their diet composition, especially in regard to predation on valued fish stocks. Available informationon harbor seal diets, primarily derived from scat analysis, suggests that adult salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii), and gadids predominate. Because diet assessments based on scat analysis may be biased, we investigated diet composition through quantitative analysis of fatty acid signatures. Blubber samples from 49 harbor seals captured in western North America from haul-outs within the area of the San Juan Islands and southern Strait of Georgia in the Salish Sea were analyzed for fatty acid composition, along with 269 fish and squid specimens representing 27 potential prey classes. Diet estimates varied spatially, demographically, and among individual harbor seals. Findings confirmed the prevalence of previously identified prey species in harbor seal diets, but other species also contributed significantly. In particular, Black (Sebastes melanops) and Yellowtail (S. flavidus) Rockfish were estimated to compose up to 50% of some individual seal diets. Specialization and high predation rates on Black and Yellowtail Rockfish by a subset of harbor seals may play a role in the population dynamics of these regional rockfish stocks that is greater than previously realized.

Fish consumption by harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) in the San Juan Islands, Washington

The harbor seal (Phoca vitulina) is a large-bodied and abundant predator in the Salish Sea ecosystem, and its population has recovered since the 1970s after passage of the Marine Mammal Protection Act and the cessation of bounties. Little is known about how this large predator population may affect the recovery of fish stocks in the Salish Sea, where candidate marine protected areas are being proposed. We used a bioenergetics model to calculate baseline consumption rates in the San Juan Islands, Washington. Salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp.) and herring (Clupeidae) were the 2 most energetically important prey groups for biomass consumed by harbor seals. Estimated consumption of salmonids was 783 (±380 standard deviation [SD]) metric tons (t) in the breeding season and 675 (±388 SD t in the nonbreeding season. Estimated consumption of herring was 646 (±303 SD) t in the breeding season and 2151 (±706 SD) t in the nonbreeding season. Rockfish, a depressed fish stock currently in need of population recovery, composed one of the minor prey groups consumed by harbor seals (84 [±26 SD] t in the nonbreeding season). The variables of seal body mass and proportion of prey in seal diet explained >80% of the total variation in model outputs. Prey groups, such as rockfish, that are targeted for recovery may still be affected by even low levels of predation. This study highlights the importance of salmonids and herring for the seal population and provides a framework for refining consumption estimates and their confidence intervals with future data.

Stability in The Proportion of Harbor Seals Hauled Out Under Locally Ideal Conditions

We monitored the haul-out behavior of 68 radio-tagged harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) during the molt season at two Alaskan haul-out sites (Grand Island, August-September 1994; Nanvak Bay, August-September 2000). For each site, we created a statistical model of the proportion of seals hauled out as a function of date, time of day, tide, and weather covariates. Using these models, we identified the conditions that would result in the greatest proportion of seals hauled out. Although those “ideal conditions” differed between sites, the proportion of seals predicted to be hauled out under those conditions was very similar (81.3% for Grand Island and 85.7% for Nanvak Bay). The similar estimates for both sites suggest that haul-out proportions under locally ideal conditions may be constant between years and geographic regions, at least during the molt season.

The Abundance of Harbor Seals in the Gulf of Alaska

The abundance of harbor seals (Phoca vitulina richardii) has declined in recent decades at several Alaska locations. The causes of these declines are unknown, but there is concern about the status of the populations, especially in the Gulf of Alaska. To assess the status of harbor seals in the Gulf of Alaska, we conducted aerial surveys of seals on their haul-out sites in August-September 1996. Many factors influence the propensity of seals to haul out, including tides, weather, time of day, and time of year. Because these “covariates” cannot simultaneously be controlled through survey design, we used a regression model to adjust the counts to an estimate of the number of seals that would have been ashore during a hypothetical survey conducted under ideal conditions for hauling out. The regression, a generalized additive model, not only provided an adjustment for the covariates, but also confirmed the nature and shape of the covariate effects on haul-out behavior. The number of seals hauled out was greatest at the beginning of the surveys (mid-August). There was a broad daily peak from about 1100-1400 local solar time. The greatest numbers were hauled out at low tide on terrestrial sites. Tidal state made little difference in the numbers hauled out on glacial ice, where the area available to seals did not fluctuate with the tide. Adjusting the survey counts to the ideal state for each covariate produced an estimate of 30,035 seals, about 1.8 times the total of the unadjusted counts (16,355 seals). To the adjusted count, we applied a correction factor of 1.198 from a separate study of two haul-out sites elsewhere in Alaska, to produce a total abundance estimate of 35,981 (SE 1,833). This estimate accounts both for the effect of covariates on survey counts and for the proportion of seals that remained in the water even under ideal conditions for hauling out.

Space–time zero-inflated count models of Harbor seals

Environmental data are spatial, temporal, and often come with many zeros. In this paper, we included space–time random effects in zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and ‘hurdle’ models to investigate haulout patterns of harbor seals on glacial ice. The data consisted of counts, for 18 dates on a lattice grid of samples, of harbor seals hauled out on glacial ice in Disenchantment Bay, near Yakutat, Alaska. A hurdle model is similar to a ZIP model except it does not mix zeros from the binary and count processes. Both models can be used for zero-inflated data, and we compared space–time ZIP and hurdle models in a Bayesian hierarchical model. Space–time ZIP and hurdle models were constructed by using spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) models and temporal first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) models as random effects in ZIP and hurdle regression models. We created maps of smoothed predictions for harbor seal counts based on ice density, other covariates, and spatio-temporal random effects. For both models predictions around the edges appeared to be positively biased. The linex loss function is an asymmetric loss function that penalizes overprediction more than underprediction, and we used it to correct for prediction bias to get the best map for space–time ZIP and hurdle models.

Trends and Potential Interactions Between Pinnipeds and Fisheries of New England and the U.S. West Coast

Long-term trends in the abundance and distribution of several pinniped species and commercially important fisheries of New England and the contiguous U.S. west coast are reviewed, and their actual and potential interactions discussed. Emphasis is on biological interactions or competition. The pinnipeds include the western North Atlantic stock of harbor seals, Phoca vitulina concolor; western North Atlantic gray seals, Halochoerus grypus; the U.S. stock of California sea lions, Zalophus californianus californianus; the eastern stock of Steller sea lions, Eumetopias jubatus; and Pacific harbor seals, Phoca vitulina richardii. Fisheries included are those for Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua; silver hake, Merluccius bilinearis; Atlantic herring, Clupea harengus; the coastal stock of Pacific whiting, Merluccius productus; market squid, Loligo opalescens; northern anchovy, Engraulis mordax; Pacific her-ring, Clupea pallasi; and Pacific sardine, Sardinops sagax. Most of these pinniped populations have grown exponentially since passage of the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act in 1972. They exploit a broad prey assemblage that includes several commercially valuable species. Direct competition with fisheries is therefore possible, as is competition for the prey of commercially valuable fish. The expanding pinniped populations, fluctuations in commercial fish biomass, and level of exploitation by the fisheries may affect this potential for competition. Concerns over pinnipeds impacting fisheries (especially those with localized spawning stocks or at low biomass levels) are more prevalent than concerns over fisheries’ impacts on pinnipeds. This review provides a framework to further evaluate potential biological interactions between these pinniped populations and the commercial fisheries with which they occur.

Spotted Seals, Phoca largha, in Alaska

The worldwide literature on management of spotted seals, Phoca largha, was reviewed and updated, and aerial surveys weref lown in 1992 and 1993 to determine the species' distribution and abundance in U.S. waters. In April, spotted seals were found only in the Bering Sea ice front. In June, they were seen along deteriorating ice floes and fast ice in Norton Sound. Surveys along most of Alaska's western coast in August and September found over 2,500 spotted seals in Kuskokwim Bay and concentrations of 100-400 seals around Nunivak Island, Scammon Bay, Golovnin Bay/Norton Sound, Cape Espenberg/Kotzebue Sound, and Kasegaluk Lagoon. All of these sites have been used by spotted seals in the past. The sum of the highest counts, irrespective of year, was 3,570 seals (CV =0.06). This is not an abundance estimate for all spotted seals in the Bering Sea, because it does not account for animals in the water, and we did not survey the Asian coast and some islands. Also, spotted seals and harbor seals, Phoca vitulina, are too similar in appearance to be identified accurately from the air, so our results probably include a mix of these species where their ranges overlap.

Examination of the foraging habits of Pacific harbor seal (Phoca vitulina richardsi) to describe their use of the Umpqua River, Oregon, and their predation on salmonids

The increase in harbor seal (Phoca vitulina richardsi) abundance, concurrent with the decrease in salmonid (Oncorhynchus spp.) and other fish stocks, raises concerns about the potential negative impact of seals on fish populations. Although harbor seals are found in rivers and estuaries, their presence is not necessarily indicative of exclusive or predominant feeding in these systems. We examined the diet of harbor seals in the Umpqua River, Oregon, during 1997 and 1998 to indirectly assess whether or not they were feeding in the river. Fish otoliths and other skeletal structures were recovered from 651 scats and used to identify seal prey. The use of all diagnostic prey structures, rather than just otoliths, increased our estimates of the number of taxa, the minimum number of individuals and percent frequency of occurrence (%FO) of prey consumed. The %FO indicated that the most common prey were pleuronectids, Pacific hake (Merluccius productus), Pacific stag-horn sculpin (Leptocottus armatus), osmerids, and shiner surfperch (Cymatogaster aggregata). The majority (76%) of prey were fish that inhabit marine waters exclusively and fish found in marine and estuarine areas (e.g. anadromous spp.) which would indicate that seals forage predominantly at sea and use the estuary for resting and opportunistic feeding. Salmonid remains were encountered in 39 samples (6%); two samples contained identifiable otoliths, which were determined to be from chi-nook salmon (O. tshawytscha). Because of the complex salmonid composition in the Umpqua River, we used molecular genetic techniques on salmonid bones retrieved from scat to discern species that were rare from those that were abundant. Of the 37 scats with salmonid bones but no otoliths, bones were identified genetically as chinook or coho (O. kisutch) salmon, or steelhead trout (O. mykiss) in 90% of the samples.

Molecular methods for the genetic identification of salmonid prey from Pacific harbor seal (Phoca vitulina richardsi) scat

Twenty-six stocks of Pacific salmon and trout (Oncorhynchus spp.), representing evolutionary significant units (ESU), are listed as threatened or endangered under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and six more stocks are currently being evaluated for listing. The ecological and economic consequences of these listings are large; therefore considerable effort has been made to understand and respond to these declining populations. Until recently, Pacific harbor seals (Phoca vitulina richardsi) on the west coast increased an average of 5% to 7% per year as a result of the Marine Mammal Protection Act of 1972 (Brown and Kohlman2). Pacific salmon are seasonally important prey for harbor seals (Roffe and Mate, 1984; Olesiuk, 1993); therefore quantifying and understanding the interaction between these two protected species is important for Morphobiologically sound management strategies. Because some Pacific salmonid species in a given area may be threatened or endangered, while others are relatively abundant, it is important to distinguish the species of salmonid upon which the harbor seals are preying. This study takes the first step in understanding these interactions by using molecular genetic tools for species-level identification of salmonid skeletal remains recovered from Pacific harbor seal scats.

Strandings as indicators of marine mammal biodiversity and human interactions off the coast of North Carolina

The adjacency of 2 marine biogeographic regions off Cape Hatteras, North Carolina (NC), and the proximity of the Gulf Stream result in a high biodiversity of species from northern and southern provinces and from coastal and pelagic habitats. We examined spatiotemporal patterns of marine mammal strandings and evidence of human interaction for these strandings along NC shorelines and evaluated whether the spatiotemporal patterns and species diversity of the stranded animals reflected published records of populations in NC waters. During the period of 1997–2008, 1847 stranded animals were documented from 1777 reported events. These animals represented 9 families and 34 species that ranged from tropical delphinids to pagophilic seals. This biodiversity is higher than levels observed in other regions. Most strandings were of coastal bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) (56%), harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) (14%), and harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) (4%). Overall, strandings of northern species peaked in spring. Bottlenose dolphin strandings peaked in spring and fall. Almost half of the strandings, including southern delphinids, occurred north of Cape Hatteras, on only 30% of NC’s coastline. Most stranded animals that were positive for human interaction showed evidence of having been entangled in fishing gear, particularly bottlenose dolphins, harbor porpoises, short-finned pilot whales (Globicephala macrorhynchus), harbor seals, and humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae). Spatiotemporal patterns of bottlenose dolphin strandings were similar to ocean gillnet fishing effort. Biodiversity of the animals stranded on the beaches reflected biodiversity in the waters off NC, albeit not always proportional to the relative abundance of species (e.g., Kogia species). Changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of strandings can serve as indicators of underlying changes due to anthropogenic or naturally occurring events in the source populations.