Modeling fault among motorcyclists involved in crashes

Singapore crash statistics from 2001 to 2006 show that the motorcyclist fatality and injury rates per registered vehicle are higher than those of other motor vehicles by 13 and 7 times respectively. The crash involvement rate of motorcyclists as victims of other road users is also about 43%. The objective of this study is to identify the factors that contribute to the fault of motorcyclists involved in crashes. This is done by using the binary logit model to differentiate between at-fault and not-at-fault cases and the analysis is further categorized by the location of the crashes, i.e., at intersections, on expressways and at non-intersections. A number of explanatory variables representing roadway characteristics, environmental factors, motorcycle descriptions, and rider demographics have been evaluated. Time trend effect shows that not-at-fault crash involvement of motorcyclists has increased with time. The likelihood of night time crashes has also increased for not-at-fault crashes at intersections and expressways. The presence of surveillance cameras is effective in reducing not-at-fault crashes at intersections. Wet road surfaces increase at-fault crash involvement at non-intersections. At intersections, not-at-fault crash involvement is more likely on single lane roads or on median lane of multi-lane roads, while on expressways at-fault crash involvement is more likely on the median lane. Roads with higher speed limit have higher at-fault crash involvement and this is also true on expressways. Motorcycles with pillion passengers or with higher engine capacity have higher likelihood of being at-fault in crashes on expressways. Motorcyclists are more likely to be at-fault in collisions involving pedestrians and this effect is higher at night. In multi-vehicle crashes, motorcyclists are more likely to be victims than at fault. Young and older riders are more likely to be at-fault in crashes than middle-aged group of riders. The findings of this study will help to develop more targeted countermeasures to improve motorcycle safety and more cost-effective safety awareness program in motorcyclist training.

Effectiveness of red light cameras on the right-angle crash involvement of motorcycles

Red light cameras (RLC) have been used to reduce right-angle collisions at signalized intersections. However, the effect of RLCs on motorcycle crashes has not been well investigated. The objective of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of RLCs on motorcycle safety in Singapore. This is done by comparing their exposure, proneness of at-fault right-angle crashes as well as the resulting right-angle collisions at RLC with those at non-RLC sites. Estimating the crash vulnerability from not-at-fault crash involvements, the study shows that with a RLC, the relative crash vulnerability or crash-involved exposure of motorcycles at right-angle crashes is reduced. Furthermore, field investigation of motorcycle maneuvers reveal that at non-RLC arms, motorcyclists usually queue beyond the stop-line, facilitating an earlier discharge and hence become more exposed to the conflicting stream. However at arms with a RLC, motorcyclists are more restrained to avoid activating the RLC and hence become less exposed to conflicting traffic during the initial period of the green. The study also shows that in right-angle collisions, the proneness of at-fault crashes of motorcycles is lowest among all vehicle types. Hence motorcycles are more likely to be victims than the responsible parties in right-angle crashes. RLCs have also been found to be very effective in reducing at-fault crash involvements of other vehicle types which may implicate exposed motorcycles in the conflicting stream. Taking all these into account, the presence of RLCs should significantly reduce the vulnerability of motorcycles at signalized intersections.

Learning from insurance data: Injuries to other road users in motorcyclist at-fault crashes

In multi-vehicle motorcycle crashes, the motorcycle rider is less likely to be at-fault but more commonly severely injured than the other road user. Therefore, not surprisingly, crashes in which motorcycle riders are at-fault and particularly the injuries to the other road users in these crashes have received little research attention. This paper aims to address this gap in the literature by investigating the factors influencing the severity of injury to other road users in motorcyclist-at-fault crashes. Five years of data from Queensland, Australia, were obtained from a database of claims against the compulsory third party (CTP) injury insurance of the at-fault motorcyclists. Analysis of the data using an ordered probit model shows higher injury severity for crashes involving young (under 25) and older (60+) at-fault motorcyclists. Among the not at-fault road users, the young, old, and males were found to be more severely injured than others. Injuries to vehicle occupants were less severe than those to pillions. Crashes that occurred between vehicles traveling in opposite directions resulted in more severe injuries than those involving vehicles traveling in the same direction. While most existing studies have analyzed police reported crash data, this study used CTP insurance data. Comparison of results indicates the potential of using CTP insurance data as an alternative to police reported crash data for gaining a better understanding of risk factors for motorcycle crashes and injury severity.

Developing targeted countermeasures to improve motorcycle safety

The fatality and injury rate of motorcyclists per registered vehicle are higher than those of other motor vehicles by 13 and 7 times respectively. The crash involvement rate of motorcyclists as a victim party is 58% at intersections and as an offending party is 67% at expressways. Previous research efforts showed that the motorcycle safety programs are not very effective in improving motorcycle safety. This is perhaps due to inefficient design of safety program as specific causal factors may not be well explored. The objective of this study is to propose more sophisticated countermeasures and awareness programs for improving motorcycle safety after analyzing specific causal factors for motorcycle crashes at intersections and expressways. Methodologically this study applies the binary logistic model to explore the at-fault or not-at-fault crash involvement of motorcyclists at those locations. A number of explanatory variables representing roadway characteristics, environmental factors, motorcycle descriptions, and rider demographics have been evaluated. Results shows that the night time crash occurrence, presence of red light camera, lane position, rider age, licence class, and multivehicle collision significantly affect the fault of motorcyclists involved in crashes at intersections. On the other hand, the night time crash occurrence, lane position, speed limit, rider age, licence class, engine capacity, riding with pillion passenger, foreign registered motorcycles, and multivehicle collision has been found to be significant at expressways. Legislate to wear reflective clothes and using reflective markings on the motorcycles and helmets are suggested as an effective countermeasure for reducing their vulnerability. The red light cameras at intersections reduce the vulnerability of motorcycles and hence motorcycle flow and motorcycle crashes should be considered during installation of red light cameras. At signalized intersections, motorcyclists may be taught to follow correct movement and queuing rather than weaving through the traffic as it leads them to become victims of other motorists. The riding simulators in the training centers can be useful to demonstrate the proper movement and queuing at junctions. Riding with pillion passenger and excess speed at expressways are found to significantly influence the at at-fault crash involvement of the motorcyclists. Hence the motorcyclists should be advised to concentrate more on riding while riding with pillion passenger and encouraged to avoid excess speed at expressways. Very young and very older group of riders are found to be at-fault than middle aged groups. Hence this group of riders should be targeted for safety improvement. This can be done by arranging safety talks and programs in motorcycling clubs in colleges and universities as well as community riding clubs with high proportion of elderly riders. It is recommended that the driving centers may use the findings of this study to include in licensure program to make motorcyclists more aware of the different factors which expose the motorcyclists to crash risks so that more defensive riding may be needed.

How similar are two-unit bicycle and motorcycle crashes?

This paper explores the similarities and differences between bicycle and motorcycle crashes with other motor vehicles. If similar treatments can be effective for both bicycle and motorcycle crashes, then greater benefits in terms crash costs saved may be possible for the same investment in treatments. To reduce the biases associated with under-reporting of these crashes to police, property damage and minor injury crashes were excluded. The most common crash type for both bicycles (31.1%) and motorcycles (24.5%) was intersection from adjacent approaches. Drivers of other vehicles were coded most at fault in the majority of two-unit bicycle (57.0%) and motorcycle crashes (62.7%). The crash types, patterns of fault and factors affecting fault were generally similar for bicycle and motorcycle crashes. This confirms the need to combat the factors contributing to failure of other drivers to yield right of way to two-wheelers, and suggest that some of these actions should prove beneficial to the safety of both motorized and non-motorized two-wheelers. In contrast, child bicyclists were more often at fault, particularly in crashes involving a vehicle leaving the driveway or footpath. The greater reporting of violations by riders and drivers in motorcycle crashes also deserves further investigation.

It wasn't my fault : does crash culpability improve predictive outcomes in a self-report study?

Introduction: Research that has focused on the ability of self-report assessment tools to predict crash outcomes has proven to be mixed. As a result, researchers are now beginning to explore whether examining culpability of crash involvement can subsequently improve this predictive efficacy. This study reports on the application of the Manchester Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) to predict crash involvement among a sample of general Queensland motorists, and in particular, whether including a crash culpability variable improves predictive outcomes. Surveys were completed by 249 general motorists on-line or via a pen-and-paper format. Results: Consistent with previous research, a factor analysis revealed a three factor solution for the DBQ accounting for 40.5% of the overall variance. However, multivariate analysis using the DBQ revealed little predictive ability of the tool to predict crash involvement. Rather, exposure to the road was found to be predictive of crashes. An analysis into culpability revealed 88 participants reported being “at fault” for their most recent crash. Corresponding between and multi-variate analyses that included the culpability variable did not result in an improvement in identifying those involved in crashes. Conclusions: While preliminary, the results suggest that including crash culpability may not necessarily improve predictive outcomes in self-report methodologies, although it is noted the current small sample size may also have had a deleterious effect on this endeavour. This paper also outlines the need for future research (which also includes official crash and offence outcomes) to better understand the actual contribution of self-report assessment tools, and culpability variables, to understanding and improving road safety.

Association between perception of fault for the crash and function, return to work and health status 1 year after road traffic injury: a registry-based cohort study

Objectives To establish the association between the patient's perception of fault for the crash and 12-month outcomes after non-fatal road traffic injury.Setting Two adult major trauma centres, one regional trauma centre and one metropolitan trauma centre in Victoria, Australia.Participants 2605 adult, orthopaedic trauma patients covered by the state's no-fault third party insurer for road traffic injury, injured between September 2010 and February 2014.Outcome measures EQ-5D-3L, return to work and functional recovery (Glasgow Outcome Scale—Extended score of upper good recovery) at 12 months postinjury.Results After adjusting for key confounders, the adjusted relative risk (ARR) of a functional recovery (0.57, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.69) and return to work (0.92, 95% CI 0.86 to 0.99) were lower for the not at fault compared to the at fault group. The ARR of reporting problems on EQ-5D items was 1.20–1.35 times higher in the not at fault group. Conclusions Patients who were not at fault, or denied being at fault despite a police report of fault, experienced poorer outcomes than the at fault group. Attributing fault to others was associated with poorer outcomes. Interventions to improve coping, or to resolve negative feelings from the crash, could facilitate better outcomes in the future.

Right-angle crash vulnerability of motorcycles at signalized intersections : mixed logit analysis

Motorcycles are particularly vulnerable in right-angle crashes at signalized intersections. The objective of this study is to explore how variations in roadway characteristics, environmental factors, traffic factors, maneuver types, human factors as well as driver demographics influence the right-angle crash vulnerability of motorcycles at intersections. The problem is modeled using a mixed logit model with a binary choice category formulation to differentiate how an at-fault vehicle collides with a not-at-fault motorcycle in comparison to other collision types. The mixed logit formulation allows randomness in the parameters and hence takes into account the underlying heterogeneities potentially inherent in driver behavior, and other unobserved variables. A likelihood ratio test reveals that the mixed logit model is indeed better than the standard logit model. Night time riding shows a positive association with the vulnerability of motorcyclists. Moreover, motorcyclists are particularly vulnerable on single lane roads, on the curb and median lanes of multi-lane roads, and on one-way and two-way road type relative to divided-highway. Drivers who deliberately run red light as well as those who are careless towards motorcyclists especially when making turns at intersections increase the vulnerability of motorcyclists. Drivers appear more restrained when there is a passenger onboard and this has decreased the crash potential with motorcyclists. The presence of red light cameras also significantly decreases right-angle crash vulnerabilities of motorcyclists. The findings of this study would be helpful in developing more targeted countermeasures for traffic enforcement, driver/rider training and/or education, safety awareness programs to reduce the vulnerability of motorcyclists.

Criminal histories of crash and non-crash involved Queensland speeding offenders: Evidence supporting the idea that we drive as we live

Evidence increasingly suggests that our behaviour on the road mirrors our behaviour across other aspects of our life. The idea that we drive as we live, described by Tillman and Hobbs more than 65 years ago when examining off-road behaviours of taxi drivers (1949), is the focus of the current paper. As part of a larger study examining the impact of penalty changes on a large cohort of Queensland speeding offenders, criminal (lifetime) and crash history (10 year period) data for a sub-sample of 1000 offenders were obtained. Based on the ‘drive as we live’ maxim, it was hypothesised that crash-involved speeding offenders would be more likely to have a criminal history than non-crash involved offenders. Overall, only 30% of speeding offenders had a criminal history. However, crash-involved offenders were significantly more likely to have a criminal history (49.4%) than non-crash involved offenders (28.6%), supporting the hypothesis. Furthermore, those deemed ‘most at fault’ in a crash were the group most likely to have at least one criminal offence (52.2%). When compared to the non-crash involved offenders, those deemed ‘not most at fault’ in a crash were also more likely to have had at least one criminal offence (46.5%). Therefore, when compared to non-crash involved speeding offenders, those offenders involved in a crash were more likely to have been convicted of at least one criminal offence, irrespective of whether they were deemed ‘most at fault’ in that crash. Implications for traffic offender management and policing are discussed.

Failure detectors and communication efficiency in the crash and general omisión failure models

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Fault tolerance logging-based model for deterministic systems

Fault tolerance allows a system to remain operational to some degree when some of its components fail. One of the most common fault tolerance mechanisms consists on logging the system state periodically, and recovering the system to a consistent state in the event of a failure. This paper describes a general fault tolerance logging-based mechanism, which can be layered over deterministic systems. Our proposal describes how a logging mechanism can recover the underlying system to a consistent state, even if an action or set of actions were interrupted mid-way, due to a server crash. We also propose different methods of storing the logging information, and describe how to deploy a fault tolerant master-slave cluster for information replication. We adapt our model to a previously proposed framework, which provided common relational features, like transactions with atomic, consistent, isolated and durable properties, to NoSQL database management systems.