On the relationship between connections and the asymptotic properties of predictive distributions

In a recent paper, Komaki studied the second-order asymptotic properties of predictive distributions, using the Kullback-Leibler divergence as a loss function. He showed that estimative distributions with asymptotically efficient estimators can be improved by predictive distributions that do not belong to the model. The model is assumed to be a multidimensional curved exponential family. In this paper we generalize the result assuming as a loss function any f divergence. A relationship arises between alpha connections and optimal predictive distributions. In particular, using an alpha divergence to measure the goodness of a predictive distribution, the optimal shift of the estimate distribution is related to alpha-covariant derivatives. The expression that we obtain for the asymptotic risk is also useful to study the higher-order asymptotic properties of an estimator, in the mentioned class of loss functions.

Asymptotic properties of stationary sequences.

Bibliography: p. 146.

Robust Estimation in Multitype Branching Processes Based on their Asymptotic Properties

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60J80.

A Generalized Quasi-Likelihood Estimator for Nonstationary Stochastic Processes−Asymptotic Properties and Examples

2010 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62F12, 62M05, 62M09, 62M10, 60G42.

Spectral asymptotic properties of semi-regular non-commutative harmonic oscillators

The study carried out in this thesis is devoted to spectral analysis of systems of PDEs related also with quantum physics models. Namely, the research deals with classes of systems that contain certain quantum optics models such as Jaynes-Cummings, Rabi and their generalizations that describe light-matter interaction. First we investigate the spectral Weyl asymptotics for a class of semiregular systems, extending to the vector-valued case results of Helffer and Robert, and more recently of Doll, Gannot and Wunsch. Actually, the asymptotics by Doll, Gannot and Wunsch is more precise (that is why we call it refined) than the classical result by Helffer and Robert, but deals with a less general class of systems, since the authors make an hypothesis on the measure of the subset of the unit sphere on which the tangential derivatives of the X-Ray transform of the semiprincipal symbol vanish to infinity order. Abstract Next, we give a meromorphic continuation of the spectral zeta function for semiregular differential systems with polynomial coefficients, generalizing the results by Ichinose and Wakayama and Parmeggiani. Finally, we state and prove a quasi-clustering result for a class of systems including the aforementioned quantum optics models and we conclude the thesis by showing a Weyl law result for the Rabi model and its generalizations.

Asymptotic and structural properties of special cases of the Wright function arising in probability theory

This analysis paper presents previously unknown properties of some special cases of the Wright function whose consideration is necessitated by our work on probability theory and the theory of stochastic processes. Specifically, we establish new asymptotic properties of the particular Wright function 1Ψ1(ρ, k; ρ, 0; x) = X∞ n=0 Γ(k + ρn) Γ(ρn) x n n! (|x| < ∞) when the parameter ρ ∈ (−1, 0)∪(0, ∞) and the argument x is real. In the probability theory applications, which are focused on studies of the Poisson-Tweedie mixtures, the parameter k is a non-negative integer. Several representations involving well-known special functions are given for certain particular values of ρ. The asymptotics of 1Ψ1(ρ, k; ρ, 0; x) are obtained under numerous assumptions on the behavior of the arguments k and x when the parameter ρ is both positive and negative. We also provide some integral representations and structural properties involving the ‘reduced’ Wright function 0Ψ1(−−; ρ, 0; x) with ρ ∈ (−1, 0) ∪ (0, ∞), which might be useful for the derivation of new properties of members of the power-variance family of distributions. Some of these imply a reflection principle that connects the functions 0Ψ1(−−;±ρ, 0; ·) and certain Bessel functions. Several asymptotic relationships for both particular cases of this function are also given. A few of these follow under additional constraints from probability theory results which, although previously available, were unknown to analysts.

From nonwetting to prewetting: The asymptotic behavior of 4He drops on alkali substrates

We investigate the spreading of 4He droplets on alkali-metal surfaces at zero temperature, within the frame of finite range density-functional theory. The equilibrium configurations of several 4HeN clusters and their asymptotic trend with increasing particle number N, which can be traced to the wetting behavior of the quantum fluid, are examined for nanoscopic droplets. We discuss the size effects inferring that the asymptotic properties of large droplets correspond to those of the prewetting film.

From nonwetting to prewetting: The asymptotic behavior of 4He drops on alkali substrates

We investigate the spreading of 4He droplets on alkali-metal surfaces at zero temperature, within the frame of finite range density-functional theory. The equilibrium configurations of several 4HeN clusters and their asymptotic trend with increasing particle number N, which can be traced to the wetting behavior of the quantum fluid, are examined for nanoscopic droplets. We discuss the size effects inferring that the asymptotic properties of large droplets correspond to those of the prewetting film.

Asymptotic Theory for Extended Asymmetric Multivariate GARCH Processes

The paper considers various extended asymmetric multivariate conditional volatility models, and derives appropriate regularity conditions and associated asymptotic theory. This enables checking of internal consistency and allows valid statistical inferences to be drawn based on empirical estimation. For this purpose, we use an underlying vector random coefficient autoregressive process, for which we show the equivalent representation for the asymmetric multivariate conditional volatility model, to derive asymptotic theory for the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator. As an extension, we develop a new multivariate asymmetric long memory volatility model, and discuss the associated asymptotic properties.

Soliton based DPSK encoded sequences:stability and dynamical properties

We study the dynamical properties of the RZ-DPSK encoded sequences of bits, focusing on the instabilities in the train leading to the bit stream corruption. The problem is studied within the framework of the complex Toda chain model for optical solitons. We show how the bit composition of the pattern affects the initial stage of the train dynamics and explain the general mechanisms of the appearance of unstable collective soliton modes. Then we discuss the nonlinear regime using the asymptotic properties of the pulse stream at large propagation distances and analyze the dynamical behavior of the train elucidating different scenarios for the pattern instabilities. ©2010 Crown.

Context tree selection: A unifying view

Context tree models have been introduced by Rissanen in [25] as a parsimonious generalization of Markov models. Since then, they have been widely used in applied probability and statistics. The present paper investigates non-asymptotic properties of two popular procedures of context tree estimation: Rissanen's algorithm Context and penalized maximum likelihood. First showing how they are related, we prove finite horizon bounds for the probability of over- and under-estimation. Concerning overestimation, no boundedness or loss-of-memory conditions are required: the proof relies on new deviation inequalities for empirical probabilities of independent interest. The under-estimation properties rely on classical hypotheses for processes of infinite memory. These results improve on and generalize the bounds obtained in Duarte et al. (2006) [12], Galves et al. (2008) [18], Galves and Leonardi (2008) [17], Leonardi (2010) [22], refining asymptotic results of Buhlmann and Wyner (1999) [4] and Csiszar and Talata (2006) [9]. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Characterizations of Lojasiewicz inequalities and applications

The classical Lojasiewicz inequality and its extensions for partial differential equation problems (Simon) and to o-minimal structures (Kurdyka) have a considerable impact on the analysis of gradient-like methods and related problems: minimization methods, complexity theory, asymptotic analysis of dissipative partial differential equations, tame geometry. This paper provides alternative characterizations of this type of inequalities for nonsmooth lower semicontinuous functions defined on a metric or a real Hilbert space. In a metric context, we show that a generalized form of the Lojasiewicz inequality (hereby called the Kurdyka- Lojasiewicz inequality) relates to metric regularity and to the Lipschitz continuity of the sublevel mapping, yielding applications to discrete methods (strong convergence of the proximal algorithm). In a Hilbert setting we further establish that asymptotic properties of the semiflow generated by -∂f are strongly linked to this inequality. This is done by introducing the notion of a piecewise subgradient curve: such curves have uniformly bounded lengths if and only if the Kurdyka- Lojasiewicz inequality is satisfied. Further characterizations in terms of talweg lines -a concept linked to the location of the less steepest points at the level sets of f- and integrability conditions are given. In the convex case these results are significantly reinforced, allowing in particular to establish the asymptotic equivalence of discrete gradient methods and continuous gradient curves. On the other hand, a counterexample of a convex C2 function in R2 is constructed to illustrate the fact that, contrary to our intuition, and unless a specific growth condition is satisfied, convex functions may fail to fulfill the Kurdyka- Lojasiewicz inequality.

Is the observed persistence spurious? A test for fractional integration versus short memory and structural breaks

Although it is commonly accepted that most macroeconomic variables are nonstationary, it is often difficult to identify the source of the non-stationarity. In particular, it is well-known that integrated and short memory models containing trending components that may display sudden changes in their parameters share some statistical properties that make their identification a hard task. The goal of this paper is to extend the classical testing framework for I(1) versus I(0)+ breaks by considering a a more general class of models under the null hypothesis: non-stationary fractionally integrated (FI) processes. A similar identification problem holds in this broader setting which is shown to be a relevant issue from both a statistical and an economic perspective. The proposed test is developed in the time domain and is very simple to compute. The asymptotic properties of the new technique are derived and it is shown by simulation that it is very well-behaved in finite samples. To illustrate the usefulness of the proposed technique, an application using inflation data is also provided.

Linear least squares estimation of the first order moving average parameter

We propose an iterative procedure to minimize the sum of squares function which avoids the nonlinear nature of estimating the first order moving average parameter and provides a closed form of the estimator. The asymptotic properties of the method are discussed and the consistency of the linear least squares estimator is proved for the invertible case. We perform various Monte Carlo experiments in order to compare the sample properties of the linear least squares estimator with its nonlinear counterpart for the conditional and unconditional cases. Some examples are also discussed