Tool for discovering sequential patterns in financial markets

The goal of this thesis is the study of a tool that can help analysts in finding sequential patterns. This tool will have a focus on financial markets. A study will be made on how new and relevant knowledge can be mined from real life information, potentially giving investors, market analysts, and economists new basis to make informed decisions. The Ramex Forum algorithm will be used as a basis for the tool, due to its ability to find sequential patterns in financial data. So that it further adapts to the needs of the thesis, a study of relevant improvements to the algorithm will be made. Another important aspect of this algorithm is the way that it displays the patterns found, even with good results it is difficult to find relevant patterns among all the studied samples without a proper result visualization component. As such, different combinations of parameterizations and ways to visualize data will be evaluated and their influence in the analysis of those patterns will be discussed. In order to properly evaluate the utility of this tool, case studies will be performed as a final test. Real information will be used to produce results and those will be evaluated in regards to their accuracy, interest, and relevance.

Do dogs (canis familiaris) understand invisible displacement?

Domestic dogs (Canis familiaris) perform above chance on invisible displacement tasks despite showing few other signs of possessing the necessary representational abilities. Four experiments investigated how dogs find an object that has been hidden in 1 of 3 opaque boxes. Dogs passed the task under a variety of control conditions, but only if the device used to displace the object ended up adjacent to the target box after the displacement. These results suggest that the search behavior of dogs was guided by simple associative rules rather than mental representation of the object's past trajectory. In contrast, Experiment 5 found that on the same task, 18- and 24-month-old children showed no disparity between trials in which the displacement device was adjacent or nonadjacent to the target box.

MPGN – An Approach for Discovering Class Association Rules

his article presents some of the results of the Ph.D. thesis Class Association Rule Mining Using MultiDimensional Numbered Information Spaces by Iliya Mitov (Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, BAS), successfully defended at Hasselt University, Faculty of Science on 15 November 2011 in Belgium

Applying Associative Classifier PGN for Digitised Cultural Heritage Resource Discovery

Resource discovery is one of the key services in digitised cultural heritage collections. It requires intelligent mining in heterogeneous digital content as well as capabilities in large scale performance; this explains the recent advances in classification methods. Associative classifiers are convenient data mining tools used in the field of cultural heritage, by applying their possibilities to taking into account the specific combinations of the attribute values. Usually, the associative classifiers prioritize the support over the confidence. The proposed classifier PGN questions this common approach and focuses on confidence first by retaining only 100% confidence rules. The classification tasks in the field of cultural heritage usually deal with data sets with many class labels. This variety is caused by the richness of accumulated culture during the centuries. Comparisons of classifier PGN with other classifiers, such as OneR, JRip and J48, show the competitiveness of PGN in recognizing multi-class datasets on collections of masterpieces from different West and East European Fine Art authors and movements.

Classifier PGN: Classification with High Confidence Rules

ACM Computing Classification System (1998): H.2.8, H.3.3.

Radiative decay of the X(3872) as a mixed molecule-charmonium state in QCD sum rules

We use QCD sum rules (QCDSR) to calculate the width of the radiative decay of the meson X(3872), assumed to be a mixture between charmonium and exotic molecular [c (q) over bar][q (c) over bar] states with J(PC) = 1(++). We find that in a small range for the values of the mixing angle, 5 degrees <= theta <= 13 degrees, we get the branching ratio Gamma(X -> J/psi gamma)/Gamma(X -> J/psi pi(+)pi(-)) = 0.19 +/- 0.13, which is in agreement, with the experimental value. This result is compatible with the analysis of the mass and decay width of the mode J/psi(n pi) performed in the same approach.

Bs0 meson and the Bs0BK coupling from QCD sum rules

We evaluate the mass of the B(s0) scalar meson and the coupling constant in the B(s0)BK vertex in the framework of QCD sum rules. We consider the B(s0) as a tetraquark state to evaluate its mass. We get m(Bs0) = (5.85 +/- 0.13) GeV, which is in agreement, considering the uncertainties, with predictions supposing it as a b (s) over bar state or a B (K) over bar bound state with J(P) = 0(+). To evaluate the g(Bs0BK) coupling, we use the three-point correlation functions of the vertex, considering B(s0) as a normal b (s) over bar state. The obtained coupling constant is: g(Bs0BK) = (16.3 +/- 3.2) GeV. This number is in agreement with light-cone QCD sum rules calculation. We have also compared the decay width of the B(s0) -> BK process considering the B(s0) to be a b (s) over bar state and a BK molecular state. The width obtained for the BK molecular state is twice as big as the width obtained for the b (s) over bar state. Therefore, we conclude that with the knowledge of the mass and the decay width of the B(s0) meson, one can discriminate between the different theoretical proposals for its structure.

QCD sum rules for the X(3872) as a mixed molecule-charmonium state

We use QCD sum rules to test the nature of the meson X(3872), assumed to be a mixture between charmonium and exotic molecular [c (q) over bar][q (c) over bar] states with J(PC) = 1(++). We find that there is only a small range for the values of the mixing angle theta that can provide simultaneously good agreement with the experimental value of the mass and the decay width, and this range is 5(0) <= theta <= 3(0). In this range we get m(X) = (3.77 +/- 0.18) GeV and Gamma(X -> J/psi pi(+)pi(-)) = (9.3 +/- 6.9) MeV, which are compatible, within the errors, with the experimental values. We, therefore, conclude that the X(3872) is approximately 97% a charmonium state with 3% admixture of similar to 88% D(0)D*(0) molecule and similar to 12% D(+)D*(-) molecule.

Width of exotics from QCD sum rules : Tetraquarks or molecules?

We investigate the widths of the recently observed charmonium like resonances X(3872), Z(4430), and Z(2)(4250) using QCD sum rules. Extending previous analyses regarding these states as diquark-antiquark states or molecules of D mesons, we introduce the Breit-Wigner function in the pole term. We find that introducing the width increases the mass at the small Borel window region. Using the operator-product expansion up to dimension 8, we find that the sum rules based on interpolating current with molecular components give a stable Borel curve from which both the masses and widths of these resonances can be well obtained. Thus the QCD sum rule approach strongly favors the molecular description of these states.

Bayesian updating rules in continuous opinion dynamics models

Here, I investigate the use of Bayesian updating rules applied to modeling how social agents change their minds in the case of continuous opinion models. Given another agent statement about the continuous value of a variable, we will see that interesting dynamics emerge when an agent assigns a likelihood to that value that is a mixture of a Gaussian and a uniform distribution. This represents the idea that the other agent might have no idea about what is being talked about. The effect of updating only the first moments of the distribution will be studied, and we will see that this generates results similar to those of the bounded confidence models. On also updating the second moment, several different opinions always survive in the long run, as agents become more stubborn with time. However, depending on the probability of error and initial uncertainty, those opinions might be clustered around a central value.

Special issue on advances in data mining and its applications

Data mining is the process to identify valid, implicit, previously unknown, potentially useful and understandable information from large databases. It is an important step in the process of knowledge discovery in databases, (Olaru & Wehenkel, 1999). In a data mining process, input data can be structured, seme-structured, or unstructured. Data can be in text, categorical or numerical values. One of the important characteristics of data mining is its ability to deal data with large volume, distributed, time variant, noisy, and high dimensionality. A large number of data mining algorithms have been developed for different applications. For example, association rules mining can be useful for market basket problems, clustering algorithms can be used to discover trends in unsupervised learning problems, classification algorithms can be applied in decision-making problems, and sequential and time series mining algorithms can be used in predicting events, fault detection, and other supervised learning problems (Vapnik, 1999). Classification is among the most important tasks in the data mining, particularly for data mining applications into engineering fields. Together with regression, classification is mainly for predictive modelling. So far, there have been a number of classification algorithms in practice. According to (Sebastiani, 2002), the main classification algorithms can be categorized as: decision tree and rule based approach such as C4.5 (Quinlan, 1996); probability methods such as Bayesian classifier (Lewis, 1998); on-line methods such as Winnow (Littlestone, 1988) and CVFDT (Hulten 2001), neural networks methods (Rumelhart, Hinton & Wiliams, 1986); example-based methods such as k-nearest neighbors (Duda & Hart, 1973), and SVM (Cortes & Vapnik, 1995). Other important techniques for classification tasks include Associative Classification (Liu et al, 1998) and Ensemble Classification (Tumer, 1996).

Associative priming in color naming: Interference and facilitation

In Experiment 1, color-naming interference for target stimuli following associated primes was greater in a group making a lexical decision to the prime than in a group reading the prime silently. High-frequency targets were responded to more quickly than low-frequency targets. In Experiment 2, with subjects naming the prime, there was evidence of associative interference when the prime and the target were grouped temporally but not when the intertrial interval was comparable with the prime-target interval. Associative primes presented at a short (120-msec) prime-target stimulus onset asynchrony facilitated color naming in Experiment 3. Taken together, the results suggest that the effect of faster processing of the base word in a color-naming task is facilitatory and that color-naming priming interference arises when associative prime processing increases conflict between word and color responses by enhancing phonological or articulatory activation of the base word.

Quasispin graded-fermion formalism and gl(m vertical bar n)down arrow osp(m vertical bar n) branching rules

The graded-fermion algebra and quasispin formalism are introduced and applied to obtain the gl(m\n)down arrow osp(m\n) branching rules for the two- column tensor irreducible representations of gl(m\n), for the case m less than or equal to n(n > 2). In the case m < n, all such irreducible representations of gl(m\n) are shown to be completely reducible as representations of osp(m\n). This is also shown to be true for the case m=n, except for the spin-singlet representations, which contain an indecomposable representation of osp(m\n) with composition length 3. These branching rules are given in fully explicit form. (C) 1999 American Institute of Physics. [S0022-2488(99)04410-2].