Water quality assessment and characterisation of chlorophyll-a variability related to river discharges, within the southeastern Bay of Biscay : evaluation and development of chlorophyll-a algorithms for MODIS and MERIS imagery

222 p. : il.

Assessment of inter-examiner agreement and variability in the manual classification of auditory brainstem response

Abstract Background: The analysis of the Auditory Brainstem Response (ABR) is of fundamental importance to the investigation of the auditory system behaviour, though its interpretation has a subjective nature because of the manual process employed in its study and the clinical experience required for its analysis. When analysing the ABR, clinicians are often interested in the identification of ABR signal components referred to as Jewett waves. In particular, the detection and study of the time when these waves occur (i.e., the wave latency) is a practical tool for the diagnosis of disorders affecting the auditory system. Significant differences in inter-examiner results may lead to completely distinct clinical interpretations of the state of the auditory system. In this context, the aim of this research was to evaluate the inter-examiner agreement and variability in the manual classification of ABR. Methods: A total of 160 ABR data samples were collected, for four different stimulus intensity (80dBHL, 60dBHL, 40dBHL and 20dBHL), from 10 normal-hearing subjects (5 men and 5 women, from 20 to 52 years). Four examiners with expertise in the manual classification of ABR components participated in the study. The Bland-Altman statistical method was employed for the assessment of inter-examiner agreement and variability. The mean, standard deviation and error for the bias, which is the difference between examiners’ annotations, were estimated for each pair of examiners. Scatter plots and histograms were employed for data visualization and analysis. Results: In most comparisons the differences between examiner’s annotations were below 0.1 ms, which is clinically acceptable. In four cases, it was found a large error and standard deviation (>0.1 ms) that indicate the presence of outliers and thus, discrepancies between examiners. Conclusions: Our results quantify the inter-examiner agreement and variability of the manual analysis of ABR data, and they also allows for the determination of different patterns of manual ABR analysis.

Exposure estimation, uncertainty and variability in occupational hygiene retrospective assessment

This thesis reports on a quantitative exposure assessment and on an analysis of the attributes of the data used in the estimations, in particular distinguishing between its uncertainty and variability. A retrospective assessment of exposure to benzene was carried out for a case control study of leukaemia in the Australian petroleum industry. The study used the mean of personal task-based measurements (Base Estimates) in a deterministic algorithm and applied factors to model back to places, times etc for which no exposure measurements were available. Mean daily exposures were estimated, on an individual subject basis, by summing the task-based exposures. These mean exposures were multiplied by the years spent on each job to provide exposure estimates in ppm-years. These were summed to provide a Cumulative Estimate for each subject. Validation was completed for the model and key inputs. Exposures were low, most jobs were below TWA of 5 ppm benzene. Exposures in terminals were generally higher than at refineries. Cumulative Estimates ranged from 0.005 to 50.9 ppm-years, with 84 percent less than 10 ppm-years. Exposure probability distributions were developed for tanker drivers using Monte Carlo simulation of the exposure estimation algorithm. The outcome was a lognormal distribution of exposure for each driver. These provide the basis for alternative risk assessment metrics e.g. the frequency of short but intense exposures which provided only a minimal contribution to the long-term average exposure but may increase risk of leukaemia. The effect of different inputs to the model were examined and their significance assessed using Monte Carlo simulation. The Base Estimates were the most important determinant of exposure in the model. The sources of variability in the measured data were examined, including the effect of having censored data and the between and within-worker variability. The sources of uncertainty in the exposure estimates were analysed and consequential improvements in exposure assessment identified. Monte Carlo sampling was also used to examine the uncertainties and variability associated with the tanker drivers' exposure assessment, to derive an estimate of the range and to put confidence intervals on the daily mean exposures. The identified uncertainty was less than the variability associated with the estimates. The traditional approach to exposure estimation typically derives only point estimates of mean exposure. The approach developed here allows a range of exposure estimates to be made and provides a more flexible and improved basis for risk assessment.

Robust food supply supply chains:An integrated framework for vulnerability assessment and disturbance management

The operation of supply chains (SCs) has for many years been focused on efficiency, leanness and responsiveness. This has resulted in reduced slack in operations, compressed cycle times, increased productivity and minimised inventory levels along the SC. Combined with tight tolerance settings for the realisation of logistics and production processes, this has led to SC performances that are frequently not robust. SCs are becoming increasingly vulnerable to disturbances, which can decrease the competitive power of the entire chain in the market. Moreover, in the case of food SCs non-robust performances may ultimately result in empty shelves in grocery stores and supermarkets.
The overall objective of this research is to contribute to Supply Chain Management (SCM) theory by developing a structured approach to assess SC vulnerability, so that robust performances of food SCs can be assured. We also aim to help companies in the food industry to evaluate their current state of vulnerability, and to improve their performance robustness through a better understanding of vulnerability issues. The following research questions (RQs) stem from these objectives:
RQ1: What are the main research challenges related to (food) SC robustness?
RQ2: What are the main elements that have to be considered in the design of robust SCs and what are the relationships between these elements?
RQ3: What is the relationship between the contextual factors of food SCs and the use of disturbance management principles?
RQ4: How to systematically assess the impact of disturbances in (food) SC processes on the robustness of (food) SC performances?
To answer these RQs we used different methodologies, both qualitative and quantitative. For each question, we conducted a literature survey to identify gaps in existing research and define the state of the art of knowledge on the related topics. For the second and third RQ, we conducted both exploration and testing on selected case studies. Finally, to obtain more detailed answers to the fourth question, we used simulation modelling and scenario analysis for vulnerability assessment.
Main findings are summarised as follows.
Based on an extensive literature review, we answered RQ1. The main research challenges were related to the need to define SC robustness more precisely, to identify and classify disturbances and their causes in the context of the specific characteristics of SCs and to make a systematic overview of (re)design strategies that may improve SC robustness. Also, we found that it is useful to be able to discriminate between varying degrees of SC vulnerability and to find a measure that quantifies the extent to which a company or SC shows robust performances when exposed to disturbances.
To address RQ2, we define SC robustness as the degree to which a SC shows an acceptable performance in (each of) its Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) during and after an unexpected event that caused a disturbance in one or more logistics processes. Based on the SCM literature we identified the main elements needed to achieve robust performances and structured them together to form a conceptual framework for the design of robust SCs. We then explained the logic of the framework and elaborate on each of its main elements: the SC scenario, SC disturbances, SC performance, sources of food SC vulnerability, and redesign principles and strategies.
Based on three case studies, we answered RQ3. Our major findings show that the contextual factors have a consistent relationship to Disturbance Management Principles (DMPs). The product and SC environment characteristics are contextual factors that are hard to change and these characteristics initiate the use of specific DMPs as well as constrain the use of potential response actions. The process and the SC network characteristics are contextual factors that are easier to change, and they are affected by the use of the DMPs. We also found a notable relationship between the type of DMP likely to be used and the particular combination of contextual factors present in the observed SC.
To address RQ4, we presented a new method for vulnerability assessments, the VULA method. The VULA method helps to identify how much a company is underperforming on a specific Key Performance Indicator (KPI) in the case of a disturbance, how often this would happen and how long it would last. It ultimately informs the decision maker about whether process redesign is needed and what kind of redesign strategies should be used in order to increase the SC’s robustness. The VULA method is demonstrated in the context of a meat SC using discrete-event simulation. The case findings show that performance robustness can be assessed for any KPI using the VULA method.
To sum-up the project, all findings were incorporated within an integrated framework for designing robust SCs. The integrated framework consists of the following steps: 1) Description of the SC scenario and identification of its specific contextual factors; 2) Identification of disturbances that may affect KPIs; 3) Definition of the relevant KPIs and identification of the main disturbances through assessment of the SC performance robustness (i.e. application of the VULA method); 4) Identification of the sources of vulnerability that may (strongly) affect the robustness of performances and eventually increase the vulnerability of the SC; 5) Identification of appropriate preventive or disturbance impact reductive redesign strategies; 6) Alteration of SC scenario elements as required by the selected redesign strategies and repeat VULA method for KPIs, as defined in Step 3.
Contributions of this research are listed as follows. First, we have identified emerging research areas - SC robustness, and its counterpart, vulnerability. Second, we have developed a definition of SC robustness, operationalized it, and identified and structured the relevant elements for the design of robust SCs in the form of a research framework. With this research framework, we contribute to a better understanding of the concepts of vulnerability and robustness and related issues in food SCs. Third, we identified the relationship between contextual factors of food SCs and specific DMPs used to maintain robust SC performances: characteristics of the product and the SC environment influence the selection and use of DMPs; processes and SC networks are influenced by DMPs. Fourth, we developed specific metrics for vulnerability assessments, which serve as a basis of a VULA method. The VULA method investigates different measures of the variability of both the duration of impacts from disturbances and the fluctuations in their magnitude.
With this project, we also hope to have delivered practical insights into food SC vulnerability. First, the integrated framework for the design of robust SCs can be used to guide food companies in successful disturbance management. Second, empirical findings from case studies lead to the identification of changeable characteristics of SCs that can serve as a basis for assessing where to focus efforts to manage disturbances. Third, the VULA method can help top management to get more reliable information about the “health” of the company.
The two most important research opportunities are: First, there is a need to extend and validate our findings related to the research framework and contextual factors through further case studies related to other types of (food) products and other types of SCs. Second, there is a need to further develop and test the VULA method, e.g.: to use other indicators and statistical measures for disturbance detection and SC improvement; to define the most appropriate KPI to represent the robustness of a complete SC. We hope this thesis invites other researchers to pick up these challenges and help us further improve the robustness of (food) SCs.

The Impact of Thought Speed and Variability on Psychological State and Threat Perception: Further Exploration of the Theory of Mental Motion

Thought speed and variability are purportedly common features of specific psychological states, such as mania and anxiety. The present study explored the independent and combinational influence of these variables upon condition-specific symptoms and affective state, as proposed by Pronin and Jacobs’ (Perspect Psychol Sci, 3:461–485, 2008) theory of mental motion. A general population sample was recruited online (N = 263). Participants completed a thought speed and variability manipulation task, inducing a combination of fast/slow and varied/repetitive thought. Change in mania and anxiety symptoms was assessed through direct self-reported symptom levels and indirect, processing bias assessment (threat interpretation). Results indicated that fast and varied thought independently increased self-reported mania symptoms. Affect was significantly less positive and more negative during slow thought. No change in anxiety symptoms or threat interpretation was found between manipulation conditions. No evidence for the proposed combinational influence of speed and variability was found. Implications and avenues for therapeutic intervention are discussed.

Environmental assessment and biomonitoring of the Twelve Mile Creek watershed, Niagara Peninsula, Ontario

In light of the heavy reliance of the people of the Niagara Peninsula on the T\\'elve Mile Creek (TMC) watershed for recreational activities and for municipal and industrial uses ( e.g., drinking water, shipping and discharge of effluents), it was deemed prudent to assess the envirol1tnental health of the system by analysing the sediments total and exchangeable metal, and TPH contents. The MOEE has set guidelines with limits for the protection and management of aquatic sediments, and the sediments from the headwaters of the TMC have total metal and TPH (subset of O&G) contents well below the lower provincial limits. Areas of environmental concern where total metal contents in sediments, either individually or collectively, exceed the guideline, are the south side of Lake Gibson, the Old WeIland Canal, a segment of TMC just south of the QEW and Martindale Pond. The total metal content of sediments does not in all instances identify areas of biological concern. Instead, it has been found that the exchangeable metal fraction of sediments is a better indicator of metal availability and thus potential accumulation in organisms. In some instances, the exchangeable metal fraction agrees with the total metal fraction defining areas of environmental concern, but it does vary from site to site reflecting the natural variability of the ambient environment. Overall, the exchangeable metal fraction of sediments appears to be a better indicator of anthropogenic pollution and ecosystem impact. A histochemical study of Anodon.ta sp., Elliptio sp. and zebra mussels (Dreissena polyn'101pha) was done in conjunction with passive biomonitoring of zebra and quagga mussels (Dreissena bugensis) from the Twelve Mile Creek watershed and Lake 51. Clair (Jeanette's Creek, Chatham, Ontario). The highest concentrations of divalent metals such as Cu, Ni, Cd, and Zn, and trivalent Al appear to accumulate in gill and kidney tissues. Metal contents of organ tissues in Anodonta sp. vary with size class. Organ metal content varies among size classes, thus requiring consideration of size in biomonitoring studies. Shucked zebra and quagga mussel tissues, exhibited similar size class to Al content trends. In addition they reflected the Al content trends of top (approximately 10 cm) most sediments in the Twelve Mile Creek watershed. Quagga mussels appear to have higher Al concentrations than zebra mussels, thus suggesting that quagga mussels may be better passive biomonitors of AI. Cd content in zebra mussel tissues, seemed to increase with size class trends. This was not demonstrated in the quagga mussel tissues. This suggests that Cd may be regulated by quagga mussels and not by zebra mussels, and that zebra mussels may be better passivebiomonitors of Cd than are quagga mussels. Zebra mussel, quagga mussel, Anodonta sp., and Elliptio sp. were used in a two part, active (translocated) biomonitoring study of the Twelve Mile Creek watershed. There was no statistical difference in death rates between zebra and quagga mussels after 65 days of biomonitoring. However there does appear to be a difference of death rates between sites. Unfortunately the data base did not permit us to differentiate between sites. Relative to Port Colborne Harbour (Port Colborne, Ontario), the Twelve Mile Creek watershed appears to be elevated in bioavailable AI. An area near the terminus of the Twelve Mile Creek appears to be an area of environmental concern since mussels seemed to have accumulated relatively large concentrations of Cd, Zn, and Pb. In addition to possible metal loading from a nearby outfalls, or possible upstream outfalls, road salt runoff from storm sewers may have contributed to metal accumulation through cation exchanges processes. Similar trends in cumulative quagga mussel metal concentrations during the two time periods (65 and 159 days), suggest that quagga mussels may reach equilibrium within 65 days of translocation. Differences in bioaccumulated metal concentrations of the two dreissenid species demonstrate that active biomonitoring studies must use a variety of organisms to adequately assess the environmental situation of specific waterways and/or bodies.

Utilization of aquatic macrophyte Spirodela polyrhiza as phytotoxicological assessment and phytoremediation tool in selected polluted wetland sites in Ernakulam district

One of the objectives of the current investigation was to evaluate the effectiveness of Spirodela polyrhiza to remove heavy metals and other contaminants from the water samples collected from wetland sites of Eloor and Kannamaly under controlled conditions .The results obtained from the current study suggest that the test material S. polyrrhiza should be used in the biomonitoring and phytoremediation of municipal, agricultural and industrial effluents because of their simplicity, sensitivity and cost-effectiveness. The study throws light on the potential of this plant which can be used as an assessment tool in two diverse wetland in Ernakulum district. The results show the usefulness of combining physicochemical analysis with bioassays as such approach ensures better understanding of the toxicity of chemical pollutants and their influence on plant health. The results shows the suitability of Spirodela plant for surface water quality assessment as all selected parameters showed consistency with respect to water samples collected over a 3-monitoring periods. Similarly the relationship between the change in exposure period (2, 4 and 8 days) with the parameters were also studied in detail. Spirodela are consistent test material as they are homogeneous plant material; due to predominantly vegetative reproduction. New fronds are formed by clonal propagation thus, producing a population of genetically homogeneous plants. The result is small variability between treated individuals. It has been observed that phytoremediation of water samples collected from Eloor and Kannamaly using the floating plant system is a predominant method which is economic to construct, requires little maintenance and eco friendly.

Assessing and understanding the impact of stratospheric dynamics and variability on the earth system

Advances in weather and climate research have demonstrated the role of the stratosphere in the Earth system across a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Stratospheric ozone loss has been identified as a key driver of Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation trends, affecting ocean currents and carbon uptake, sea ice, and possibly even the Antarctic ice sheets. Stratospheric variability has also been shown to affect short term and seasonal forecasts, connecting the tropics and midlatitudes and guiding storm track dynamics. The two-way interactions between the stratosphere and the Earth system have motivated the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP) Stratospheric Processes and Their Role in Climate (SPARC) DynVar activity to investigate the impact of stratospheric dynamics and variability on climate. This assessment will be made possible by two new multi-model datasets. First, roughly 10 models with a well resolved stratosphere are participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5), providing the first multi-model ensemble of climate simulations coupled from the stratopause to the sea floor. Second, the Stratosphere Historical Forecasting Project (SHFP) of WCRP's Climate Variability and predictability (CLIVAR) program is forming a multi-model set of seasonal hindcasts with stratosphere resolving models, revealing the impact of both stratospheric initial conditions and dynamics on intraseasonal prediction. The CMIP5 and SHFP model-data sets will offer an unprecedented opportunity to understand the role of the stratosphere in the natural and forced variability of the Earth system and to determine whether incorporating knowledge of the middle atmosphere improves seasonal forecasts and climate projections. Capsule New modeling efforts will provide unprecedented opportunities to harness our knowledge of the stratosphere to improve weather and climate prediction.

Global to city scale urban anthropogenic heat flux: model and variability

The large scale urban consumption of energy (LUCY) model simulates all components of anthropogenic heat flux (QF) from the global to individual city scale at 2.5 × 2.5 arc-minute resolution. This includes a database of different working patterns and public holidays, vehicle use and energy consumption in each country. The databases can be edited to include specific diurnal and seasonal vehicle and energy consumption patterns, local holidays and flows of people within a city. If better information about individual cities is available within this (open-source) database, then the accuracy of this model can only improve, to provide the community data from global-scale climate modelling or the individual city scale in the future. The results show that QF varied widely through the year, through the day, between countries and urban areas. An assessment of the heat emissions estimated revealed that they are reasonably close to those produced by a global model and a number of small-scale city models, so results from LUCY can be used with a degree of confidence. From LUCY, the global mean urban QF has a diurnal range of 0.7–3.6 W m−2, and is greater on weekdays than weekends. The heat release from building is the largest contributor (89–96%), to heat emissions globally. Differences between months are greatest in the middle of the day (up to 1 W m−2 at 1 pm). December to February, the coldest months in the Northern Hemisphere, have the highest heat emissions. July and August are at the higher end. The least QF is emitted in May. The highest individual grid cell heat fluxes in urban areas were located in New York (577), Paris (261.5), Tokyo (178), San Francisco (173.6), Vancouver (119) and London (106.7). Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

Reliability and variability of day-to-day vault training measures in artistic gymnastics

Inter-day training reliability and variability in artistic gymnastics vaulting was determined using a customised infra-red timing gate and contact mat timing system. Thirteen Australian high performance gymnasts (eight males and five females) aged 11-23 years were assessed during two consecutive days of normal training. Each gymnast completed a number of vault repetitions per daily session. Inter-day variability of vault run-up velocities (at -18 to -12 m, -12 to -6 m, -6 to -2 m, and -2 to 0 m from the nearest edge of the beat board), and board contact, pre-flight, and table contact times were determined using mixed modelling statistics to account for random (within-subject variability) and fixed effects (gender, number of subjects, number of trials). The difference in the mean (Mdiff) and Cohen's effect sizes for reliability assessment and intra-class correlation coefficients, and the coefficient of variation percentage (CV%) were calculated for variability assessment. Approach velocity (-18 to -2 m, CV = 2.4-7.8%) and board contact time (CV = 3.5%) were less variable measures when accounting for day-to-day performance differences, than pre-flight time (CV = 17.7%) and table contact time (CV = 20.5%). While pre-flight and table contact times are relevant training measures, approach velocity and board contact time are more reliable when quantifying vaulting performance.

Stability and variability of motivation to change in anorexia nervosa

Resistance to treatment is common among anorexic clients. Three studies indicated that although readiness to change and self-efficacy are applicable to this population, there is a large degree of variability and stability between symptoms. Multi-dimensional, continuous measures of readiness to change and self-efficacy may provide a more accurate, informative assessment.

High-altitude exposure in patients with cardiovascular disease: risk assessment and practical recommendations

Because of the development of modern transportation facilities, an ever rising number of individuals including many patients with preexisting diseases visit high-altitude locations (>2500 m). High-altitude exposure triggers a series of physiologic responses intended to maintain an adequate tissue oxygenation. Even in normal subjects, there is enormous interindividual variability in these responses that may be further amplified by environmental factors such as cold temperature, low humidity, exercise, and stress. These adaptive mechanisms, although generally tolerated by most healthy subjects, may induce major problems in patients with preexisting cardiovascular diseases in which the functional reserves are already limited. Preexposure assessment of patients helps to minimize risk and detect contraindications to high-altitude exposure. Moreover, the great variability and nonpredictability of the adaptive response should encourage physicians counseling such patients to adapt a cautionary approach. Here, we will briefly review how high-altitude adjustments may interfere with and aggravate/decompensate preexisting cardiovascular diseases. Moreover, we will provide practical recommendations on how to investigate and counsel patients with cardiovascular disease desiring to travel to high-altitude locations.

Examining the relationship between risk assessment and risk management in mental health

Risk assessment is crucial for developing risk management plans to prevent or minimize mental health patients' risks that will impede their recovery. Risk assessments and risk management plans should be closely linked. Their content and the extent to which they are linked within one Trust is explored. There is a great deal of variability in the amount and detail of risk information collected by nurses and how this is used to develop risk management plans. Keeping risk assessment information in one place rather than scattered throughout patient records is important for ensuring it can be accessed easily and linked properly to risk management plans. Strengthening the link between risk assessment and management will help ensure interventions and care is tailored to the specific needs of individual patients, thus promoting their safety and well-being. Thorough risk assessment helps in developing risk management plans that minimize risks that can impede mental health patients' recovery. Department of Health policy states that risk assessments and risk management plans should be inextricably linked. This paper examines their content and linkage within one Trust. Four inpatient wards for working age adults (18-65 years) in a large mental health Trust in England were included in the study. Completed risk assessment forms, for all patients in each inpatient ward were examined (n= 43), followed by an examination of notes for the same patients. Semi-structured interviews took place with ward nurses (n= 17). Findings show much variability in the amount and detail of risk information collected by nurses, which may be distributed in several places. Gaps in the risk assessment and risk management process are evident, and a disassociation between risk information and risk management plans is often present. Risk information should have a single location so that it can be easily found and updated. Overall, a more integrated approach to risk assessment and management is required, to help patients receive timely and appropriate interventions that can reduce risks such as suicide or harm to others. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing.

Annual Average Value of Solar Radiation and its Variability in Portugal

Solar resource assessment is essential for the different phases of solar energy projects, such as preliminary design engineering, financing including due diligence and, later, insurance phases. An important aspect is the long term resource estimation. This kind of estimation can only be obtained through the statistical analysis of long-term data series of solar radiation measurements, preferably ground measurements. This paper is a first step in this direction, with an initial statistical analysis performed over the radiation data from a national measurement network, consisting of eighty-nine meteorological stations. These preliminary results are presented in figures that represent the annual average values of Global Horizontal Irradiation (GHI) and its Variability in the Portuguese continental territory. These results show that the South of Portugal is the most suitable area for the implementation of medium to large scale solar plants.