Application of data mining techniques in the prediction of coronary artery disease : use of anaesthesia time-series and patient risk factor data

The high morbidity and mortality associated with atherosclerotic coronary vascular disease (CVD) and its complications are being lessened by the increased knowledge of risk factors, effective preventative measures and proven therapeutic interventions. However, significant CVD morbidity remains and sudden cardiac death continues to be a presenting feature for some subsequently diagnosed with CVD. Coronary vascular disease is also the leading cause of anaesthesia related complications. Stress electrocardiography/exercise testing is predictive of 10 year risk of CVD events and the cardiovascular variables used to score this test are monitored peri-operatively. Similar physiological time-series datasets are being subjected to data mining methods for the prediction of medical diagnoses and outcomes. This study aims to find predictors of CVD using anaesthesia time-series data and patient risk factor data. Several pre-processing and predictive data mining methods are applied to this data. Physiological time-series data related to anaesthetic procedures are subjected to pre-processing methods for removal of outliers, calculation of moving averages as well as data summarisation and data abstraction methods. Feature selection methods of both wrapper and filter types are applied to derived physiological time-series variable sets alone and to the same variables combined with risk factor variables. The ability of these methods to identify subsets of highly correlated but non-redundant variables is assessed. The major dataset is derived from the entire anaesthesia population and subsets of this population are considered to be at increased anaesthesia risk based on their need for more intensive monitoring (invasive haemodynamic monitoring and additional ECG leads). Because of the unbalanced class distribution in the data, majority class under-sampling and Kappa statistic together with misclassification rate and area under the ROC curve (AUC) are used for evaluation of models generated using different prediction algorithms. The performance based on models derived from feature reduced datasets reveal the filter method, Cfs subset evaluation, to be most consistently effective although Consistency derived subsets tended to slightly increased accuracy but markedly increased complexity. The use of misclassification rate (MR) for model performance evaluation is influenced by class distribution. This could be eliminated by consideration of the AUC or Kappa statistic as well by evaluation of subsets with under-sampled majority class. The noise and outlier removal pre-processing methods produced models with MR ranging from 10.69 to 12.62 with the lowest value being for data from which both outliers and noise were removed (MR 10.69). For the raw time-series dataset, MR is 12.34. Feature selection results in reduction in MR to 9.8 to 10.16 with time segmented summary data (dataset F) MR being 9.8 and raw time-series summary data (dataset A) being 9.92. However, for all time-series only based datasets, the complexity is high. For most pre-processing methods, Cfs could identify a subset of correlated and non-redundant variables from the time-series alone datasets but models derived from these subsets are of one leaf only. MR values are consistent with class distribution in the subset folds evaluated in the n-cross validation method. For models based on Cfs selected time-series derived and risk factor (RF) variables, the MR ranges from 8.83 to 10.36 with dataset RF_A (raw time-series data and RF) being 8.85 and dataset RF_F (time segmented time-series variables and RF) being 9.09. The models based on counts of outliers and counts of data points outside normal range (Dataset RF_E) and derived variables based on time series transformed using Symbolic Aggregate Approximation (SAX) with associated time-series pattern cluster membership (Dataset RF_ G) perform the least well with MR of 10.25 and 10.36 respectively. For coronary vascular disease prediction, nearest neighbour (NNge) and the support vector machine based method, SMO, have the highest MR of 10.1 and 10.28 while logistic regression (LR) and the decision tree (DT) method, J48, have MR of 8.85 and 9.0 respectively. DT rules are most comprehensible and clinically relevant. The predictive accuracy increase achieved by addition of risk factor variables to time-series variable based models is significant. The addition of time-series derived variables to models based on risk factor variables alone is associated with a trend to improved performance. Data mining of feature reduced, anaesthesia time-series variables together with risk factor variables can produce compact and moderately accurate models able to predict coronary vascular disease. Decision tree analysis of time-series data combined with risk factor variables yields rules which are more accurate than models based on time-series data alone. The limited additional value provided by electrocardiographic variables when compared to use of risk factors alone is similar to recent suggestions that exercise electrocardiography (exECG) under standardised conditions has limited additional diagnostic value over risk factor analysis and symptom pattern. The effect of the pre-processing used in this study had limited effect when time-series variables and risk factor variables are used as model input. In the absence of risk factor input, the use of time-series variables after outlier removal and time series variables based on physiological variable values’ being outside the accepted normal range is associated with some improvement in model performance.

Effect of ramipril on walking times and quality of life among patients with peripheral artery disease and intermittent claudication : a randomized controlled trial

Importance Approximately one-third of patients with peripheral artery disease experience intermittent claudication, with consequent loss of quality of life. Objective To determine the efficacy of ramipril for improving walking ability, patient-perceived walking performance, and quality of life in patients with claudication. Design, Setting, and Patients Randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial conducted among 212 patients with peripheral artery disease (mean age, 65.5 [SD, 6.2] years), initiated in May 2008 and completed in August 2011 and conducted at 3 hospitals in Australia. Intervention Patients were randomized to receive 10 mg/d of ramipril (n = 106) or matching placebo (n = 106) for 24 weeks. Main Outcome Measures Maximum and pain-free walking times were recorded during a standard treadmill test. The Walking Impairment Questionnaire (WIQ) and Short-Form 36 Health Survey (SF-36) were used to assess walking ability and quality of life, respectively. Results At 6 months, relative to placebo, ramipril was associated with a 75-second (95% CI, 60-89 seconds) increase in mean pain-free walking time (P < .001) and a 255-second (95% CI, 215-295 seconds) increase in maximum walking time (P < .001). Relative to placebo, ramipril improved the WIQ median distance score by 13.8 (Hodges-Lehmann 95% CI, 12.2-15.5), speed score by 13.3 (95% CI, 11.9-15.2), and stair climbing score by 25.2 (95% CI, 25.1-29.4) (P < .001 for all). The overall SF-36 median Physical Component Summary score improved by 8.2 (Hodges-Lehmann 95% CI, 3.6-11.4; P = .02) in the ramipril group relative to placebo. Ramipril did not affect the overall SF-36 median Mental Component Summary score. Conclusions and Relevance Among patients with intermittent claudication, 24-week treatment with ramipril resulted in significant increases in pain-free and maximum treadmill walking times compared with placebo. This was associated with a significant increase in the physical functioning component of the SF-36 score. Trial Registration clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00681226

Reduction in arterial wall strain with aggressive lipid-lowering therapy in patients with carotid artery disease

Background: Inflammation and biomechanical factors have been associated with the development of vulnerable atherosclerotic plaques. Lipid-lowering therapy has been shown to be effective in stabilizing them by reducing plaque inflammation. Its effect on arterial wall strain, however, remains unknown. The aim of the present study was to investigate the role of high- and low-dose lipid-lowering therapy using an HMG-CoA reductase inhibitor, atorvastatin, on arterial wall strain. Methods and Results: Forty patients with carotid stenosis >40% were successfully followed up during the Atorvastatin Therapy: Effects on Reduction Of Macrophage Activity (ATHEROMA; ISRCTN64894118) Trial. All patients had plaque inflammation as shown by intraplaque accumulation of ultrasmall super paramagnetic particles of iron oxide on magnetic resonance imaging at baseline. Structural analysis was performed and change of strain was compared between high- and low-dose statin at 0 and 12 weeks. There was no significant difference in strain between the 2 groups at baseline (P=0.6). At 12 weeks, the maximum strain was significantly lower in the 80-mg group than in the 10-mg group (0.085±0.033 vs. 0.169±0.084; P=0.001). A significant reduction (26%) of maximum strain was observed in the 80-mg group at 12 weeks (0.018±0.02; P=0.01). Conclusions: Aggressive lipid-lowering therapy is associated with a significant reduction in arterial wall strain. The reduction in biomechanical strain may be associated with reductions in plaque inflammatory burden.

Finite element analysis of vulnerable atherosclerotic plaques: A comparison of mechanical stresses within carotid plaques of acute and recently symptomatic patients with carotid artery disease

Objectives: There is considerable evidence that patients with carotid artery stenosis treated immediately after the ischaemic cerebrovascular event have a better clinical outcome than those who have delayed treatment. Biomechanical assessment of carotid plaques using high-resolution MRI can help examine the relationship between the timing of carotid plaque symptomology and maximum simulated plaque stress concentration. Methods: Fifty patients underwent high-resolution multisequence in vivo MRI of their carotid arteries. Patients with acute symptoms (n=25) underwent MRI within 72 h of the onset of ischaemic cerebrovascular symptoms, whereas recently symptomatic patients (n=25) underwent MRI from 2 to 6 weeks after the onset of symptoms. Stress analysis was performed based on the geometry derived from in vivo MRI of the symptomatic carotid artery at the point of maximum stenosis. The peak stresses within the plaques of the two groups were compared. Results: Patient demographics were comparable for both groups. All the patients in the recently symptomatic group had severe carotid stenosis in contrast to patients with acute symptoms who had predominantly mild to moderate carotid stenosis. The simulated maximum stresses in patients with acute symptoms was significantly higher than in recently symptomatic patients (median (IQR): 313310 4 dynes/cm 2 (295 to 382) vs 2523104 dynes/cm 2 (236 to 311), p=0.02). Conclusions: Patients have extremely unstable, high-risk plaques, with high stresses, immediately after an acute cerebrovascular event, even at lower degrees of carotid stenoses. Biomechanical stress analysis may help us refine our risk-stratification criteria for the management of patients with carotid artery disease in future.

Genetic analysis for a shared biological basis between migraine and coronary artery disease

Objective: To apply genetic analysis of genome-wide association data to study the extent and nature of a shared biological basis between migraine and coronary artery disease (CAD). Methods: Four separate methods for cross-phenotype genetic analysis were applied on data from 2 large-scale genome-wide association studies of migraine (19,981 cases, 56,667 controls) and CAD (21,076 cases, 63,014 controls). The first 2 methods quantified the extent of overlapping risk variants and assessed the load of CAD risk loci in migraineurs. Genomic regions of shared risk were then identified by analysis of covariance patterns between the 2 phenotypes and by querying known genome-wide significant loci. Results: We found a significant overlap of genetic risk loci for migraine and CAD. When stratified by migraine subtype, this was limited to migraine without aura, and the overlap was protective in that patients with migraine had a lower load of CAD risk alleles than controls. Genes indicated by 16 shared risk loci point to mechanisms with potential roles in migraine pathogenesis and CAD, including endothelial dysfunction (PHACTR1) and insulin homeostasis (GIP). Conclusions: The results suggest that shared biological processes contribute to risk of migraine and CAD, but surprisingly this commonality is restricted to migraine without aura and the impact is in opposite directions. Understanding the mechanisms underlying these processes and their opposite relationship to migraine and CAD may improve our understanding of both disorders.

Molecular mediators linking stroke and carotid artery disease

Carotid artery disease is the most prevalent etiologic precursor of ischemic stroke, which is a major health hazard and the second most common cause of death in the world. If a patient presents with a symptomatic high-grade (>70%) stenosis in the internal carotid artery, the treatment of choice is carotid endarterectomy. However, the natural course of radiologically equivalent carotid lesions may be clinically quite diverse, and the reason for that is unknown. It would be of utmost importance to develop molecular markers that predict the symptomatic phenotype of an atherosclerotic carotid plaque (CP) and help to differentiate vulnerable lesions from stable ones. The aim of this study was to investigate the morphologic and molecular factors that associate with stroke-prone CPs. In addition to immunohistochemistry, DNA microarrays were utilized to identify molecular markers that would differentiate between symptomatic and asymptomatic CPs. Endothelial adhesion molecule expression (ICAM-1, VCAM-1, P-selectin, and E-selectin) did not differ between symptomatic and asymptomatic patients. Denudation of endothelial cells was associated with symptom-generating carotid lesions, but in studies on the mechanism of decay of endothelial cells, markers of apoptosis (TUNEL, activated caspase 3) were found to be decreased in the endothelium of symptomatic lesions. Furthermore, markers of endothelial apoptosis were directly associated with those of cell proliferation (Ki-67) in all plaques. FasL expression was significantly increased on the endothelium of symptomatic CPs. DNA microarray analysis revealed prominent induction of specific genes in symptomatic CPs, including those subserving iron and heme metabolism, namely HO-1, and hemoglobin scavenger receptor CD163. HO-1 and CD163 proteins were also increased in symptomatic CPs and associated with intraplaque iron deposits, which, however, did not correlate with symptom status itself. ADRP, the gene for adipophilin, was also overexpressed in symptomatic CPs. Adipophilin expression was markedly increased in ulcerated CPs and colocalized with extravasated red blood cells and cholesterol crystals. Taken together, the phenotypic characteristics and the numerous possible molecular mediators of the destabilization of carotid plaques provide potential platforms for future research. The denudation of the endothelial lining observed in symptomatic CPs may lead to direct thromboembolism and maintain harmful oxidative and inflammatory processes, predispose to plaque microhemorrhages, and contribute to lipid accumulation into the plaque, thereby making it vulnerable to rupture.

Determinants of Coronary and Carotid Atherosclerosis in Finnish Patients with Clinically Suspected Coronary Artery Disease. A Quantitative Angiography and Ultrasound Study

Background. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the most serious threat to life and health in industrialized countries. Atherosclerosis is the main underlying pathology associated with CVD, in particular coronary artery disease (CAD), ischaemic stroke, and peripheral arterial disease. Risk factors play an important role in initiating and accelerating the complex process of atherosclerosis. Most studies of risk factors have focused on the presence or absence of clinically defined CVD. Less is known about the determinants of the severity and extent of atherosclerosis in symptomatic patients. Aims. To clarify the association between coronary and carotid artery atherosclerosis, and to study the determinants associated with these abnormalities with special regard to novel cardiovascular risk factors. Subjects and methods. Quantitative coronary angiography (QCA) and B-mode ultrasound were used to assess coronary and carotid artery atherosclerosis in 108 patients with clinically suspected CAD referred for elective coronary angiography. To evaluate anatomic severity and extent of CAD, several QCA parameters were incorporated into indexes. These measurements reflected CAD severity, extent, and overall atheroma burden and were calculated for the entire coronary tree and separately for different coronary segments (i.e., left main, proximal, mid, and distal segments). Maximum and mean intima-media thickness (IMT) values of carotid arteries were measured and expressed as mean aggregate values. Furthermore, the study design included extensive fasting blood samples, oral glucose tolerance test, and an oral fat-load test to be performed in each participant. Results. Maximum and mean IMT values were significantly correlated with CAD severity, extent, and atheroma burden. There was heterogeneity in associations between IMT and CAD indexes according to anatomical location of CAD. Maximum and mean IMT values, respectively, were correlated with QCA indexes for mid and distal segments but not with the proximal segments of coronary vessels. The values of paraoxonase-1 (PON1) activity and concentration, respectively, were lower in subjects with significant CAD and there was a significant relationship between PON1 activity and concentration and coronary atherosclerosis assessed by QCA. PON1 activity was a significant determinant of severity of CAD independently of HDL cholesterol. Neither PON1 activity nor concentration was associated with carotid IMT. The concentration of triglycerides (TGs), triglyceride-rich lipoproteins (TRLs), oxidized LDL (oxLDL), and the cholesterol content of remnant lipoprotein particle (RLP-C) were significantly increased at 6 hours after intake of an oral fatty meal as compared with fasting values. The mean peak size of LDL remained unchanged 6 hours after the test meal. The correlations between total TGs, TRLs, and RLP-C in fasting and postprandial state were highly significant. RLP-C correlated with oxLDL both in fasting and in fed state and inversely with LDL size. In multivariate analysis oxLDL was a determinant of severity and extent of CAD. Neither total TGs, TRLs, oxLDL, nor LDL size were linked to carotid atherosclerosis. Insulin resistance (IR) was associated with an increased severity and extent of coronary atherosclerosis and seemed to be a stronger predictor of coronary atherosclerosis in the distal parts of the coronary tree than in the proximal and mid parts. In the multivariate analysis IR was a significant predictor of the severity of CAD. IR did not correlate with carotid IMT. Maximum and mean carotid IMT were higher in patients with the apoE4 phenotype compared with subjects with the apoE3 phenotype. Likewise, patients with the apoE4 phenotype had a more severe and extensive CAD than individuals with the apoE3 phenotype. Conclusions. 1) There is an association between carotid IMT and the severity and extent of CAD. Carotid IMT seems to be a weaker predictor of coronary atherosclerosis in the proximal parts of the coronary tree than in the mid and distal parts. 2) PON1 activity has an important role in the pathogenesis of coronary atherosclerosis. More importantly, the study illustrates how the protective role of HDL could be modulated by its components such that equivalent serum concentrations of HDL cholesterol may not equate with an equivalent, potential protective capacity. 3) RLP-C in the fasting state is a good marker of postprandial TRLs. Circulating oxLDL increases in CAD patients postprandially. The highly significant positive correlation between postprandial TRLs and postprandial oxLDL suggests that the postprandial state creates oxidative stress. Our findings emphasize the fundamental role of LDL oxidation in the development of atherosclerosis even after inclusion of conventional CAD risk factors. 4) Disturbances in glucose metabolism are crucial in the pathogenesis of coronary atherosclerosis. In fact, subjects with IR are comparable with diabetic subjects in terms of severity and extent of CAD. 5) ApoE polymorphism is involved in the susceptibility to both carotid and coronary atherosclerosis.

Major histocompatibility complex and coronary artery disease: Special emphasis on Chlamydia pneumoniae, and periodontitis

Most of the genes in the MHC region are involveed in adaptive and innate immunity, with essential function in inflammatory reactions and in protection against infections. These genes might serve as a candidate region for infection and inflammation associated diseases. CAD is an inflammatory disease. The present set of studies was performed to assess whether the MHC region harbors genetic markers for CAD, and whether these genetic markers explain the CAD risk factors: e.g., C. pneumoniae, periodontitis, and periodontal pathogens. Study I was performed using two separate patient materials and age- and sex-matched healthy controls, categorizing them into two independent studies: the HTx and ACS studies. Both studies consistently showed the HLA-A3– B35– DR1 (35 ancestral haplotype) haplotype as a susceptible MHC genetic marker for CAD. HLA-DR1 alone was associated not only with CAD, but also with CAD risk factor diseases, e.g., diabetes mellitus, and hyperlipidemia. The ACS study further showed the HLA-B*07 and -DRB1*15 -related haplotype as a protective MHC haplotype for CAD. Study II showed that patients with CAD showed signs of chronic C. pneumoniae infection when compared to age- and sex-matched healthy controls. HLA-B*35 or -related haplotypes associated with the C. pneumoniae infection markers. Among these haplotype carriers, males and smokers associated with elevated C. pneumoniae infection markers. Study III showed that CAD patients with periodontitis had elevated serum markers of P. gingivalis and occurrence of the pathogen in saliva. LTA+496C strongly associated with periodontitis, while HLA-DRB1*01 with periodontitis and with the elevated serum antibodies of P. gingivalis. Study IV showed that the increased level of C3/C4 ratio was a new risk factor and was associated with recurrent cardiovascular end-points. The increased C3 and decreased C4 concentrations in serum explained the increased level of the C3/C4 ratio. Both the higher than cut-off value (4.53) and the highest quartile of the C3/C4 ratio were also associated with worst survival, increased end-points, and C4 null alleles. The presence of C4 null alleles associated with decreased serum C4 concentration, and increased C3/C4 ratio. In conclusion, the present studies show that the CAD susceptibility haplotype (HLA-A3− B35− DR1 -related haplotypes, Study I) partially explains the development of CAD in patients possessing several recognized and novel risk factors: diabetes mellitus, increased LDL, smoking, C4B*Q0, C. pneumnoiae, periodontitis, P. gingivalis, and complement C3/C4 ratio (Study II, III, and IV).

Noninvasive techniques in assessing coronary artery disease

Conventional invasive coronary angiography is the clinical gold standard for detecting of coronary artery stenoses. Noninvasive multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) in combination with retrospective ECG gating has recently been shown to permit visualization of the coronary artery lumen and detection of coronary artery stenoses. Single photon emission tomography (SPECT) perfusion imaging has been considered the reference method for evaluation of nonviable myocardium, but magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) can accurately depict structure, function, effusion, and myocardial viability, with an overall capacity unmatched by any other single imaging modality. Magnetocardiography (MCG) provides noninvasively information about myocardial excitation propagation and repolarization without the use of electrodes. This evolving technique may be considered the magnetic equivalent to electrocardiography. The aim of the present series of studies was to evaluate changes in the myocardium assessed with SPECT and MRI caused by coronary artery disease, examine the capability of multidetector computed tomography coronary angiography (MDCT-CA) to detect significant stenoses in the coronary arteries, and MCG to assess remote myocardial infarctions. Our study showed that in severe, progressing coronary artery disease laser treatment does not improve global left ventricular function or myocardial perfusion, but it does preserve systolic wall thickening in fixed defects (scar). It also prevents changes from ischemic myocardial regions to scar. The MCG repolarization variables are informative in remote myocardial infarction, and may perform as well as the conventional QRS criteria in detection of healed myocardial infarction. These STT abnormalities are more pronounced in patients with Q-wave infarction than in patients with non-Q-wave infarctions. MDCT-CA had a sensitivity of 82%, a specificity of 94%, a positive predictive value of 79%, and a negative predictive value of 95% for stenoses over 50% in the main coronary arteries as compared with conventional coronary angiography in patients with known coronary artery disease. Left ventricular wall dysfunction, perfusion defects, and infarctions were detected in 50-78% of sectors assigned to calcifications or stenoses, but also in sectors supplied by normally perfused coronary arteries. Our study showed a low sensitivity (sensitivity 63%) in detecting obstructive coronary artery disease assessed by MDCT in patients with severe aortic stenosis. Massive calcifications complicated correct assessment of the lumen of coronary arteries.