Controle aproximado para sistemas não-lineares de equações diferenciais ordinárias

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Um estudo do teorema de unicidade de Holmgren

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Dynamic, convex, and robust optimization with Bayesian learning for response-guided dosing

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Practical stability with respect to model mismatch of approximate discrete-time output feedback control

This paper establishes a practical stability result for discrete-time output feedback control involving mismatch between the exact system to be stabilised and the approximating system used to design the controller. The practical stability is in the sense of an asymptotic bound on the amount of error bias introduced by the model approximation, and is established using local consistency properties of the systems. Importantly, the practical stability established here does not require the approximating system to be of the same model type as the exact system. Examples are presented to illustrate the nature of our practical stability result.

Adaptive dual control of topic-based information retrieval

Information Retrieval is an important albeit imperfect component of information technologies. A problem of insufficient diversity of retrieved documents is one of the primary issues studied in this research. This study shows that this problem leads to a decrease of precision and recall, traditional measures of information retrieval effectiveness. This thesis presents an adaptive IR system based on the theory of adaptive dual control. The aim of the approach is the optimization of retrieval precision after all feedback has been issued. This is done by increasing the diversity of retrieved documents. This study shows that the value of recall reflects this diversity. The Probability Ranking Principle is viewed in the literature as the “bedrock” of current probabilistic Information Retrieval theory. Neither the proposed approach nor other methods of diversification of retrieved documents from the literature conform to this principle. This study shows by counterexample that the Probability Ranking Principle does not in general lead to optimal precision in a search session with feedback (for which it may not have been designed but is actively used). Retrieval precision of the search session should be optimized with a multistage stochastic programming model to accomplish the aim. However, such models are computationally intractable. Therefore, approximate linear multistage stochastic programming models are derived in this study, where the multistage improvement of the probability distribution is modelled using the proposed feedback correctness method. The proposed optimization models are based on several assumptions, starting with the assumption that Information Retrieval is conducted in units of topics. The use of clusters is the primary reasons why a new method of probability estimation is proposed. The adaptive dual control of topic-based IR system was evaluated in a series of experiments conducted on the Reuters, Wikipedia and TREC collections of documents. The Wikipedia experiment revealed that the dual control feedback mechanism improves precision and S-recall when all the underlying assumptions are satisfied. In the TREC experiment, this feedback mechanism was compared to a state-of-the-art adaptive IR system based on BM-25 term weighting and the Rocchio relevance feedback algorithm. The baseline system exhibited better effectiveness than the cluster-based optimization model of ADTIR. The main reason for this was insufficient quality of the generated clusters in the TREC collection that violated the underlying assumption.

Multilevel converter structure and control

In recent years, multilevel converters are becoming more popular and attractive than traditional converters in high voltage and high power applications. Multilevel converters are particularly suitable for harmonic reduction in high power applications where semiconductor devices are not able to operate at high switching frequencies or in high voltage applications where multilevel converters reduce the need to connect devices in series to achieve high switch voltage ratings. This thesis investigated two aspects of multilevel converters: structure and control. The first part of this thesis focuses on inductance between a DC supply and inverter components in order to minimise loop inductance, which causes overvoltages and stored energy losses during switching. Three dimensional finite element simulations and experimental tests have been carried out for all sections to verify theoretical developments. The major contributions of this section of the thesis are as follows: The use of a large area thin conductor sheet with a rectangular cross section separated by dielectric sheets (planar busbar) instead of circular cross section wires, contributes to a reduction of the stray inductance. A number of approximate equations exist for calculating the inductance of a rectangular conductor but an assumption was made that the current density was uniform throughout the conductors. This assumption is not valid for an inverter with a point injection of current. A mathematical analysis of a planar bus bar has been performed at low and high frequencies and the inductance and the resistance values between the two points of the planar busbar have been determined. A new physical structure for a voltage source inverter with symmetrical planar bus bar structure called Reduced Layer Planar Bus bar, is proposed in this thesis based on the current point injection theory. This new type of planar busbar minimises the variation in stray inductance for different switching states. The reduced layer planar busbar is a new innovation in planar busbars for high power inverters with minimum separation between busbars, optimum stray inductance and improved thermal performances. This type of the planar busbar is suitable for high power inverters, where the voltage source is supported by several capacitors in parallel in order to provide a low ripple DC voltage during operation. A two layer planar busbar with different materials has been analysed theoretically in order to determine the resistance of bus bars during switching. Increasing the resistance of the planar busbar can gain a damping ratio between stray inductance and capacitance and affects the performance of current loop during switching. The aim of this section is to increase the resistance of the planar bus bar at high frequencies (during switching) and without significantly increasing the planar busbar resistance at low frequency (50 Hz) using the skin effect. This contribution shows a novel structure of busbar suitable for high power applications where high resistance is required at switching times. In multilevel converters there are different loop inductances between busbars and power switches associated with different switching states. The aim of this research is to consider all combinations of the switching states for each multilevel converter topology and identify the loop inductance for each switching state. Results show that the physical layout of the busbars is very important for minimisation of the loop inductance at each switch state. Novel symmetrical busbar structures are proposed for multilevel converters with diode-clamp and flying-capacitor topologies which minimise the worst case in stray inductance for different switching states. Overshoot voltages and thermal problems are considered for each topology to optimise the planar busbar structure. In the second part of the thesis, closed loop current techniques have been investigated for single and three phase multilevel converters. The aims of this section are to investigate and propose suitable current controllers such as hysteresis and predictive techniques for multilevel converters with low harmonic distortion and switching losses. This section of the thesis can be classified into three parts as follows: An optimum space vector modulation technique for a three-phase voltage source inverter based on a minimum-loss strategy is proposed. One of the degrees of freedom for optimisation of the space vector modulation is the selection of the zero vectors in the switching sequence. This new method improves switching transitions per cycle for a given level of distortion as the zero vector does not alternate between each sector. The harmonic spectrum and weighted total harmonic distortion for these strategies are compared and results show up to 7% weighted total harmonic distortion improvement over the previous minimum-loss strategy. The concept of SVM technique is a very convenient representation of a set of three-phase voltages or currents used for current control techniques. A new hysteresis current control technique for a single-phase multilevel converter with flying-capacitor topology is developed. This technique is based on magnitude and time errors to optimise the level change of converter output voltage. This method also considers how to improve unbalanced voltages of capacitors using voltage vectors in order to minimise switching losses. Logic controls require handling a large number of switches and a Programmable Logic Device (PLD) is a natural implementation for state transition description. The simulation and experimental results describe and verify the current control technique for the converter. A novel predictive current control technique is proposed for a three-phase multilevel converter, which controls the capacitors' voltage and load current with minimum current ripple and switching losses. The advantage of this contribution is that the technique can be applied to more voltage levels without significantly changing the control circuit. The three-phase five-level inverter with a pure inductive load has been implemented to track three-phase reference currents using analogue circuits and a programmable logic device.

An approximate Bayesian computation approach for estimating parameters of complex environmental processes in a cellular automata

Modelling an environmental process involves creating a model structure and parameterising the model with appropriate values to accurately represent the process. Determining accurate parameter values for environmental systems can be challenging. Existing methods for parameter estimation typically make assumptions regarding the form of the Likelihood, and will often ignore any uncertainty around estimated values. This can be problematic, however, particularly in complex problems where Likelihoods may be intractable. In this paper we demonstrate an Approximate Bayesian Computational method for the estimation of parameters of a stochastic CA. We use as an example a CA constructed to simulate a range expansion such as might occur after a biological invasion, making parameter estimates using only count data such as could be gathered from field observations. We demonstrate ABC is a highly useful method for parameter estimation, with accurate estimates of parameters that are important for the management of invasive species such as the intrinsic rate of increase and the point in a landscape where a species has invaded. We also show that the method is capable of estimating the probability of long distance dispersal, a characteristic of biological invasions that is very influential in determining spread rates but has until now proved difficult to estimate accurately.

Sufficiently informative measurements for stability of approximate conditional mean estimates

This paper establishes sufficient conditions to bound the error in perturbed conditional mean estimates derived from a perturbed model (only the scalar case is shown in this paper but a similar result is expected to hold for the vector case). The results established here extend recent stability results on approximating information state filter recursions to stability results on the approximate conditional mean estimates. The presented filter stability results provide bounds for a wide variety of model error situations.

Filter and control performance bounds in the presence of model uncertainties with aerospace applications

This thesis establishes performance properties for approximate filters and controllers that are designed on the basis of approximate dynamic system representations. These performance properties provide a theoretical justification for the widespread application of approximate filters and controllers in the common situation where system models are not known with complete certainty. This research also provides useful tools for approximate filter designs, which are applied to hybrid filtering of uncertain nonlinear systems. As a contribution towards applications, this thesis also investigates air traffic separation control in the presence of measurement uncertainties.

Sequential monitoring of hospital adverse events when control charts fail : the example of fall injuries in hospitals

Objective To evaluate methods for monitoring monthly aggregated hospital adverse event data that display clustering, non-linear trends and possible autocorrelation. Design Retrospective audit. Setting The Northern Hospital, Melbourne, Australia. Participants 171,059 patients admitted between January 2001 and December 2006. Measurements The analysis is illustrated with 72 months of patient fall injury data using a modified Shewhart U control chart, and charts derived from a quasi-Poisson generalised linear model (GLM) and a generalised additive mixed model (GAMM) that included an approximate upper control limit. Results The data were overdispersed and displayed a downward trend and possible autocorrelation. The downward trend was followed by a predictable period after December 2003. The GLM-estimated incidence rate ratio was 0.98 (95% CI 0.98 to 0.99) per month. The GAMM-fitted count fell from 12.67 (95% CI 10.05 to 15.97) in January 2001 to 5.23 (95% CI 3.82 to 7.15) in December 2006 (p<0.001). The corresponding values for the GLM were 11.9 and 3.94. Residual plots suggested that the GLM underestimated the rate at the beginning and end of the series and overestimated it in the middle. The data suggested a more rapid rate fall before 2004 and a steady state thereafter, a pattern reflected in the GAMM chart. The approximate upper two-sigma equivalent control limit in the GLM and GAMM charts identified 2 months that showed possible special-cause variation. Conclusion Charts based on GAMM analysis are a suitable alternative to Shewhart U control charts with these data.

Detecting approximate clones in business process model repositories

Empirical evidence shows that repositories of business process models used in industrial practice contain significant amounts of duplication. This duplication arises for example when the repository covers multiple variants of the same processes or due to copy-pasting. Previous work has addressed the problem of efficiently retrieving exact clones that can be refactored into shared subprocess models. This article studies the broader problem of approximate clone detection in process models. The article proposes techniques for detecting clusters of approximate clones based on two well-known clustering algorithms: DBSCAN and Hi- erarchical Agglomerative Clustering (HAC). The article also defines a measure of standardizability of an approximate clone cluster, meaning the potential benefit of replacing the approximate clones with a single standardized subprocess. Experiments show that both techniques, in conjunction with the proposed standardizability measure, accurately retrieve clusters of approximate clones that originate from copy-pasting followed by independent modifications to the copied fragments. Additional experiments show that both techniques produce clusters that match those produced by human subjects and that are perceived to be standardizable.

Quantifying uncertainty in parameter estimates for stochastic models of collective cell spreading using approximate Bayesian computation

Wound healing and tumour growth involve collective cell spreading, which is driven by individual motility and proliferation events within a population of cells. Mathematical models are often used to interpret experimental data and to estimate the parameters so that predictions can be made. Existing methods for parameter estimation typically assume that these parameters are constants and often ignore any uncertainty in the estimated values. We use approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to estimate the cell diffusivity, D, and the cell proliferation rate, λ, from a discrete model of collective cell spreading, and we quantify the uncertainty associated with these estimates using Bayesian inference. We use a detailed experimental data set describing the collective cell spreading of 3T3 fibroblast cells. The ABC analysis is conducted for different combinations of initial cell densities and experimental times in two separate scenarios: (i) where collective cell spreading is driven by cell motility alone, and (ii) where collective cell spreading is driven by combined cell motility and cell proliferation. We find that D can be estimated precisely, with a small coefficient of variation (CV) of 2–6%. Our results indicate that D appears to depend on the experimental time, which is a feature that has been previously overlooked. Assuming that the values of D are the same in both experimental scenarios, we use the information about D from the first experimental scenario to obtain reasonably precise estimates of λ, with a CV between 4 and 12%. Our estimates of D and λ are consistent with previously reported values; however, our method is based on a straightforward measurement of the position of the leading edge whereas previous approaches have involved expensive cell counting techniques. Additional insights gained using a fully Bayesian approach justify the computational cost, especially since it allows us to accommodate information from different experiments in a principled way.

A semi-alternating direction method for a 2-D fractional FitzHugh–Nagumo monodomain model on an approximate irregular domain

A FitzHugh-Nagumo monodomain model has been used to describe the propagation of the electrical potential in heterogeneous cardiac tissue. In this paper, we consider a two-dimensional fractional FitzHugh-Nagumo monodomain model on an irregular domain. The model consists of a coupled Riesz space fractional nonlinear reaction-diffusion model and an ordinary differential equation, describing the ionic fluxes as a function of the membrane potential. Secondly, we use a decoupling technique and focus on solving the Riesz space fractional nonlinear reaction-diffusion model. A novel spatially second-order accurate semi-implicit alternating direction method (SIADM) for this model on an approximate irregular domain is proposed. Thirdly, stability and convergence of the SIADM are proved. Finally, some numerical examples are given to support our theoretical analysis and these numerical techniques are employed to simulate a two-dimensional fractional Fitzhugh-Nagumo model on both an approximate circular and an approximate irregular domain.

Mechanical processing and microstructural control in hot working of hot isostatically pressed P/M IN-100 superalloy

The hot deformation behavior of hot isostatically pressed (HIPd) P/M IN-100 superalloy has been studied in the temperature range 1000-1200 degrees C and strain rate range 0.0003-10 s(-1) using hot compression testing. A processing map has been developed on the basis of these data and using the principles of dynamic materials modelling. The map exhibited three domains: one at 1050 degrees C and 0.01 s(-1), with a peak efficiency of power dissipation of approximate to 32%, the second at 1150 degrees C and 10 s(-1), with a peak efficiency of approximate to 36% and the third at 1200 degrees C and 0.1 s(-1), with a similar efficiency. On the basis of optical and electron microscopic observations, the first domain was interpreted to represent dynamic recovery of the gamma phase, the second domain represents dynamic recrystallization (DRX) of gamma in the presence of softer gamma', while the third domain represents DRX of the gamma phase only. The gamma' phase is stable upto 1150 degrees C, gets deformed below this temperature and the chunky gamma' accumulates dislocations, which at larger strains cause cracking of this phase. At temperatures lower than 1080 degrees C and strain rates higher than 0.1 s(-1), the material exhibits flow instability, manifested in the form of adiabatic shear bands. The material may be subjected to mechanical processing without cracking or instabilities at 1200 degrees C and 0.1 s(-1), which are the conditions for DRX of the gamma phase.

Model Predictive Static Programming: A Computationally Efficient Technique For Suboptimal Control Design

Combining the philosophies of nonlinear model predictive control and approximate dynamic programming, a new suboptimal control design technique is presented in this paper, named as model predictive static programming (MPSP), which is applicable for finite-horizon nonlinear problems with terminal constraints. This technique is computationally efficient, and hence, can possibly be implemented online. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by designing an ascent phase guidance scheme for a ballistic missile propelled by solid motors. A comparison study with a conventional gradient method shows that the MPSP solution is quite close to the optimal solution.