Predictors of local malaria outbreaks: an approach to the development of an early warning system in Colombia

Risk factor surveillance is a complementary tool of morbidity and mortality surveillance that improves the likelihood that public health interventions are implemented in a timely fashion. The aim of this study was to identify population predictors of malaria outbreaks in endemic municipalities of Colombia with the goal of developing an early warning system for malaria outbreaks. We conducted a multiple-group, exploratory, ecological study at the municipal level. Each of the 290 municipalities with endemic malaria that we studied was classified according to the presence or absence of outbreaks. The measurement of variables was based on historic registries and logistic regression was performed to analyse the data. Altitude above sea level [odds ratio (OR) 3.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.34-9.98], variability in rainfall (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.40-2.44) and the proportion of inhabitants over 45 years of age (OR 0.17, 95% CI 0.08-0.38) were factors associated with malaria outbreaks in Colombian municipalities. The results suggest that environmental and demographic factors could have a significant ability to predict malaria outbreaks on the municipal level in Colombia. To advance the development of an early warning system, it will be necessary to adjust and standardise the collection of required data and to evaluate the accuracy of the forecast models.

Análisis de citación y de redes sociales para el estudio del uso de revistas en centros de investigación: an approach to the development of collections

Se presenta en este trabajo una aproximación metodológica al estudio de uso de revistas por parte de investigadores. Integrando la técnica de Análisis de Citaciones (AC) y de Análisis de Redes Sociales (ARS) se elaboran mapas bibliométricos que aportan capacidad de síntesis de información compleja. Se estima que su utilización en la evaluación de colecciones aportaría información valiosa para la distribución equitativa de los recursos económicos destinados a la compra de títulos, y para la optimización de su disponibilidad y acceso.

The Scrum approach to software development

Agile methodologies have become the standard approach to software development. The most popular and used one is Scrum. Scrum is a very simple and flexible framework that respond to unpredictability in a really effective way. However, his implementation must be correct, and since Scrum tells you what to do but not how to do it, this is not trivial. In this thesis I will describe the Scrum Framework, how to implement it and a tool that can help to do this. The thesis is divided into three parts. The first part is called Scrum. Here I will introduce the framework itself, its key concepts and its components. In Scrum there are three components: roles, meetings and artifacts. Each of these is meant to accomplish a series of specific tasks. After describing the “what to do”, in the second part, Best Practices, I will focus on the “how to do it”. For example, how to decide which items should be included in the next sprint, how to estimate tasks, and how should the team workspace be. Finally, in the third part called Tools, I will introduce Visual Studio Online, a cloud service from Microsoft that offers Git and TFVC repositories and the opportunity to manage projects with Scrum. == Versione italiana: I metodi Agile sono diventati l’approccio standard per lo sviluppo di software. Il più famoso ed utilizzato è Scrum. Scrum è un framework molto semplice e flessibile che risponde ai cambiamenti in una maniera molto efficace. La sua implementazione deve però essere corretta, e visto che Scrum ci dice cosa fare ma non come farlo, questo non risulta essere immediato. In questa tesi descriverò Scrum, come implementarlo ed uno strumento che ci può aiutare a farlo. La tesi è divisa in tre parti. La prima parte è chiamata Scrum. Qui introdurrò il framework, i suoi concetti base e le sue componenti. In Scrum ci sono tre componenti: i ruoli, i meeting e gli artifact. Ognuno di questi è studiato per svolgere una serie di compiti specifici. Dopo aver descritto il “cosa fare”, nella seconda parte, Best Practices, mi concentrerò sul “come farlo”. Ad esempio, come decidere quali oggetti includere nella prossima sprint, come stimare ogni task e come dovrebbe essere il luogo di lavoro del team. Infine, nella terza parte chiamata Tools, introdurrò Visual Studio Online, un servizio cloud della Microsoft che offre repository Git e TFVC e l’opportunità di gestire un progetto con Scrum.

A Socioeconomic Approach to the Development of E-Learning

A multitude of products, systems, approaches, views and notions characterize the field of e-learning. This article attempts to disentangle the field by using economic and sociological theories, theories of marketing management and strategy as well as practical experience gained by the author while working with leading edge suppliers of e-learning. On this basis, a distinction between knowledge creation e-learning and knowledge transfer e-learning is made. The various views are divided into four different ideal-typical paradigms, each with its own characteristics and limitations. Selecting the right paradigm to use in the development of an e-learning strategy may prove crucial to success. Implications for the development of an e-learning strategy in businesses and educational institutions are outlined.

Fuzzy Multi-Objective Linear Programming and Simulation Approach to the Development of Valid and Realistic Master Production Schedule

Master production schedule (MPS) plays an important role in an integrated production planning system. It converts the strategic planning defined in a production plan into the tactical operation execution. The MPS is also known as a tool for top management to control over manufacture resources and becomes input of the downstream planning levels such as material requirement planning (MRP) and capacity requirement planning (CRP). Hence, inappropriate decision on the MPS development may lead to infeasible execution, which ultimately causes poor delivery performance. One must ensure that the proposed MPS is valid and realistic for implementation before it is released to real manufacturing system. In practice, where production environment is stochastic in nature, the development of MPS is no longer simple task. The varying processing time, random event such as machine failure is just some of the underlying causes of uncertainty that may be hardly addressed at planning stage so that in the end the valid and realistic MPS is tough to be realized. The MPS creation problem becomes even more sophisticated as decision makers try to consider multi-objectives; minimizing inventory, maximizing customer satisfaction, and maximizing resource utilization. This study attempts to propose a methodology for MPS creation which is able to deal with those obstacles. This approach takes into account uncertainty and makes trade off among conflicting multi-objectives at the same time. It incorporates fuzzy multi-objective linear programming (FMOLP) and discrete event simulation (DES) for MPS development.

Applying a disciplined approach to the development of a context-aware communication application

Pervasive computing applications must be engineered to provide unprecedented levels of flexibility in order to reconfigure and adapt in response to changes in computing resources and user requirements. To meet these challenges, appropriate software engineering abstractions and infrastructure are required as a platform on which to build adaptive applications. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of a disciplined, model-based approach to engineer a context-aware Session Initiation Protocol (SIP) based communication application. This disciplined approach builds on our previously developed conceptual models and infrastructural components, which enable the description, acquisition, management and exploitation of arbitrary types of context and user preference information to enable adaptation to context changes

Pragmatic approach to the development of robust real-time protocols

This research is concerned with the development of distributed real-time systems, in which software is used for the control of concurrent physical processes. These distributed control systems are required to periodically coordinate the operation of several autonomous physical processes, with the property of an atomic action. The implementation of this coordination must be fault-tolerant if the integrity of the system is to be maintained in the presence of processor or communication failures. Commit protocols have been widely used to provide this type of atomicity and ensure consistency in distributed computer systems. The objective of this research is the development of a class of robust commit protocols, applicable to the coordination of distributed real-time control systems. Extended forms of the standard two phase commit protocol, that provides fault-tolerant and real-time behaviour, were developed. Petri nets are used for the design of the distributed controllers, and to embed the commit protocol models within these controller designs. This composition of controller and protocol model allows the analysis of the complete system in a unified manner. A common problem for Petri net based techniques is that of state space explosion, a modular approach to both the design and analysis would help cope with this problem. Although extensions to Petri nets that allow module construction exist, generally the modularisation is restricted to the specification, and analysis must be performed on the (flat) detailed net. The Petri net designs for the type of distributed systems considered in this research are both large and complex. The top down, bottom up and hybrid synthesis techniques that are used to model large systems in Petri nets are considered. A hybrid approach to Petri net design for a restricted class of communicating processes is developed. Designs produced using this hybrid approach are modular and allow re-use of verified modules. In order to use this form of modular analysis, it is necessary to project an equivalent but reduced behaviour on the modules used. These projections conceal events local to modules that are not essential for the purpose of analysis. To generate the external behaviour, each firing sequence of the subnet is replaced by an atomic transition internal to the module, and the firing of these transitions transforms the input and output markings of the module. Thus local events are concealed through the projection of the external behaviour of modules. This hybrid design approach preserves properties of interest, such as boundedness and liveness, while the systematic concealment of local events allows the management of state space. The approach presented in this research is particularly suited to distributed systems, as the underlying communication model is used as the basis for the interconnection of modules in the design procedure. This hybrid approach is applied to Petri net based design and analysis of distributed controllers for two industrial applications that incorporate the robust, real-time commit protocols developed. Temporal Petri nets, which combine Petri nets and temporal logic, are used to capture and verify causal and temporal aspects of the designs in a unified manner.

An approach to the development of expert systems within production planning and control

The thesis presents an account of an attempt to utilize expert systems within the domain of production planning and control. The use of expert systems was proposed due to the problematical nature of a particular function within British Steel Strip Products' Operations Department: the function of Order Allocation, allocating customer orders to a production week and site. Approaches to tackling problems within production planning and control are reviewed, as are the general capabilities of expert systems. The conclusions drawn are that the domain of production planning and control contains both `soft' and `hard' problems, and that while expert systems appear to be a useful technology for this domain, this usefulness has by no means yet been demonstrated. Also, it is argued that the main stream methodology for developing expert systems is unsuited for the domain. A problem-driven approach is developed and used to tackle the Order Allocation function. The resulting system, UAAMS, contained two expert components. One of these, the scheduling procedure was not fully implemented due to inadequate software. The second expert component, the product routing procedure, was untroubled by such difficulties, though it was unusable on its own; thus a second system was developed. This system, MICRO-X10, duplicated the function of X10, a complex database query routine used daily by Order Allocation. A prototype version of MICRO-X10 proved too slow to be useful but allowed implementation and maintenance issues to be analysed. In conclusion, the usefulness of the problem-driven approach to expert systems development within production planning and control is demonstrated but restrictions imposed by current expert system software are highlighted in that the abilities of such software to cope with `hard' scheduling constructs and also the slow processing speeds of such software can restrict the current usefulness of expert systems within production planning and control.

A Step-by-Step Approach to Transit Oriented Development Project Delivery

A major challenge in successfully implementing transit-oriented development (TOD) is having a robust process that ensures effective appraisal, initiation and delivery of multi-stakeholder TOD projects. A step-by step project development process can assist in the methodic design, evaluation, and initiation of TOD projects. Successful TOD requires attention to transit, mixed-use development and public space. Brisbane, Australia provides a case-study where recent planning policies and infrastructure documents have laid a foundation for TOD, but where barriers lie in precinct level planning and project implementation. In this context and perhaps in others, the research effort needs to shift toward identification of appropriate project processes and strategies. This paper presents the outcomes of research conducted to date. Drawing on the mainstream approach to project development and financial evaluation for property projects, key steps for potential use in successful delivery of TOD projects have been identified, including: establish the framework; location selection; precinct context review; preliminary precinct design; the initial financial viability study; the decision stage; establishment of project structure; land acquisition; development application; and project delivery. The appropriateness of this mainstream development and appraisal process will be tested through stakeholder research, and the proposed process will then be refined for adoption in TOD projects. It is suggested that the criteria for successful TOD should be broadened beyond financial concerns in order to deliver public sector support for project initiation.

Practical applications of a systematic approach to the chemical abatement of pollutants in water and air

The present dissertation is devoted to the systematic approach to the development of organic toxic and refractory pollutants abatement by chemical decomposition methods in aqueous and gaseous phases. The systematic approach outlines the basic scenario of chemical decomposition process applications with a step-by-step approximation to the most effective result with a predictable outcome for the full-scale application, confirmed by successful experience. The strategy includes the following steps: chemistry studies, reaction kinetic studies in interaction with the mass transfer processes under conditions of different control parameters, contact equipment design and studies, mathematical description of the process for its modelling and simulation, processes integration into treatment technology and its optimisation, and the treatment plant design. The main idea of the systematic approach for oxidation process introduction consists of a search for the most effective combination between the chemical reaction and the treatment device, in which the reaction is supposed to take place. Under this strategy,a knowledge of the reaction pathways, its products, stoichiometry and kinetics is fundamental and, unfortunately, often unavailable from the preliminary knowledge. Therefore, research made in chemistry on novel treatment methods, comprisesnowadays a substantial part of the efforts. Chemical decomposition methods in the aqueous phase include oxidation by ozonation, ozone-associated methods (O3/H2O2, O3/UV, O3/TiO2), Fenton reagent (H2O2/Fe2+/3+) and photocatalytic oxidation (PCO). In the gaseous phase, PCO and catalytic hydrolysis over zero valent ironsare developed. The experimental studies within the described methodology involve aqueous phase oxidation of natural organic matter (NOM) of potable water, phenolic and aromatic amino compounds, ethylene glycol and its derivatives as de-icing agents, and oxygenated motor fuel additives ¿ methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) ¿ in leachates and polluted groundwater. Gas-phase chemical decomposition includes PCO of volatile organic compounds and dechlorination of chlorinated methane derivatives. The results of the research summarised here are presented in fifteenattachments (publications and papers submitted for publication and under preparation).