Avaliação ultra-sonográfica do osso nasal fetal: evolução das medidas ao longo da gestação

OBJETIVO: além da ausência ultra-sonográfica do osso nasal fetal, sua hipoplasia também apresenta forte associação com a trissomia 21, porém por não haver clara definição do que seja tal hipoplasia, objetivou-se estabelecer seus valores de referência ao longo da gestação, em população brasileira. MÉTODOS: este estudo seccional se baseou em 625 dentre 902 fetos, entre 10 e 39 semanas, considerando-se uma medida de cada indivíduo. Foram excluídos os malformados e aqueles cujas mães apresentavam doenças que, sabidamente, interferem em seu crescimento. Utilizou-se a imagem ecográfica do perfil fetal, com feixe acústico incidindo em ângulo de 45 ou 135° em relação ao plano da face. A média de cada idade gestacional foi estimada pela regressão polinomial. O teste de Anderson-Darling verificou a distribuição normal das medidas (p>0,05). RESULTADOS: dos 625 fetos, 88,3% originaram-se de gestações simples e 11,7% de gestações múltiplas. O avanço da idade gestacional implicou aumento da medida do osso nasal e aumento de sua variabilidade. Encontrou-se tamanho mínimo de 1,0 mm e 4,7 mm no primeiro e segundo trimestres, respectivamente. CONCLUSÕES: há correlação direta entre o tamanho do osso nasal e a idade gestacional. Essa correlação é válida tanto para gestação simples quanto para múltipla. Este trabalho permite adotar a avaliação ecográfica do osso nasal fetal como marcador de cromossomopatias, ao estabelecer os valores de referência de sua medida ao longo da gestação, útil para a população brasileira, com grande miscigenação étnica. Entretanto, necessita-se aprimorar a sistematização e padronização do estudo ecográfico do osso nasal fetal, além de estabelecer seu real valor em fetos previamente classificados como de alto e baixo risco para aneuploidias.

Avaliação hemogasométrica em cães submetidos à pneumonectomia esquerda

Moléstias de natureza infecciosa, traumática ou neoplásica acometem o pulmão dos cães, constituindo-se a pneumonectomia como possibilidade de tratamento para algumas dessas afecções. Assim, diante da escassez de dados encontrados na literatura, objetivou-se avaliar e comparar parâmetros hemogasométricos, pressão parcial de oxigênio (PaO2), de dióxido de carbono (PaCO2), concentração do íon hidrogênio (pH) e do íon bicarbonato [HCO3-] no sangue arterial de cães adultos, antes e após pneumonectomia esquerda. Foram estudados 18 cães, machos e fêmeas de idades variadas, pesando entre 15 e 20 kg, distribuídos aleatoriamente em dois grupos de 9 animais cada. No Grupo A, o coto brôn-quico esquerdo dos cães foi suturado manualmente com fio de polipropileno 5-0, e no Grupo B, o coto brônquico esquerdo foi suturado mecanicamente com grampeador cirúrgico. Os dados foram colhidos em 6 momentos: antes da administração da medicação pré-anestésica (T0), 1 hora após a extubação do animal (T1EXT), 48 horas após a intervenção cirúrgica (T48h), 17 (T7d), 15 (T15d) e 36 dias (T36d) após intervenção cirúrgica. Em seguida, foi realizada a análise estatística (teste de normalidade de Anderson-Darling, Wilcox e teste U de Man-Whitney). Os valores de PaO2 do Grupo A no T1EXT (67,00±11,31) mostraram-se significativamente inferiores em relação ao T0 (99,44±18,34), fato este que não ocorreu no Grupo B: T1EXT (87,00±8,35) em relação ao T0 (87,00±7,55). Não houve diferença do pH entre os momentos nos cães do grupo A, porém no grupo B observou-se uma diminuição em T1EXT (7,3644±0,0353) em relação ao T0 (7,4189±0,0136), sem que os animais tenham desenvolvido acidose. Apesar dessas alterações, concluiu-se que os cães submetidos à pneumonectomia esquerda (sutura manual ou mecânica do coto brônquico esquerdo) não apresentaram tendência a desenvolver desequilíbrio ácido-básico no período em que foram avaliados.

Redundancy gain : manifestations, causes and predictions

Les temps de réponse dans une tache de reconnaissance d’objets visuels diminuent de façon significative lorsque les cibles peuvent être distinguées à partir de deux attributs redondants. Le gain de redondance pour deux attributs est un résultat commun dans la littérature, mais un gain causé par trois attributs redondants n’a été observé que lorsque ces trois attributs venaient de trois modalités différentes (tactile, auditive et visuelle). La présente étude démontre que le gain de redondance pour trois attributs de la même modalité est effectivement possible. Elle inclut aussi une investigation plus détaillée des caractéristiques du gain de redondance. Celles-ci incluent, outre la diminution des temps de réponse, une diminution des temps de réponses minimaux particulièrement et une augmentation de la symétrie de la distribution des temps de réponse. Cette étude présente des indices que ni les modèles de course, ni les modèles de coactivation ne sont en mesure d’expliquer l’ensemble des caractéristiques du gain de redondance. Dans ce contexte, nous introduisons une nouvelle méthode pour évaluer le triple gain de redondance basée sur la performance des cibles doublement redondantes. Le modèle de cascade est présenté afin d’expliquer les résultats de cette étude. Ce modèle comporte plusieurs voies de traitement qui sont déclenchées par une cascade d’activations avant de satisfaire un seul critère de décision. Il offre une approche homogène aux recherches antérieures sur le gain de redondance. L’analyse des caractéristiques des distributions de temps de réponse, soit leur moyenne, leur symétrie, leur décalage ou leur étendue, est un outil essentiel pour cette étude. Il était important de trouver un test statistique capable de refléter les différences au niveau de toutes ces caractéristiques. Nous abordons la problématique d’analyser les temps de réponse sans perte d’information, ainsi que l’insuffisance des méthodes d’analyse communes dans ce contexte, comme grouper les temps de réponses de plusieurs participants (e. g. Vincentizing). Les tests de distributions, le plus connu étant le test de Kolmogorov- Smirnoff, constituent une meilleure alternative pour comparer des distributions, celles des temps de réponse en particulier. Un test encore inconnu en psychologie est introduit : le test d’Anderson-Darling à deux échantillons. Les deux tests sont comparés, et puis nous présentons des indices concluants démontrant la puissance du test d’Anderson-Darling : en comparant des distributions qui varient seulement au niveau de (1) leur décalage, (2) leur étendue, (3) leur symétrie, ou (4) leurs extrémités, nous pouvons affirmer que le test d’Anderson-Darling reconnait mieux les différences. De plus, le test d’Anderson-Darling a un taux d’erreur de type I qui correspond exactement à l’alpha tandis que le test de Kolmogorov-Smirnoff est trop conservateur. En conséquence, le test d’Anderson-Darling nécessite moins de données pour atteindre une puissance statistique suffisante.

Analyse statistique de la pauvreté et des inégalités

Thèse numérisée par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

Segregation effects according to the evolutionary stage of galaxy groups

We study segregation phenomena in 57 groups selected from the 2dF Percolation-Inferred Galaxy Groups (2PIGG) catalogue of galaxy groups. The sample corresponds to those systems located in areas of at least 80 per cent redshift coverage out to 10 times the radius of the groups. The dynamical state of the galaxy systems was determined after studying their velocity distributions. We have used the Anderson-Darling test to distinguish relaxed and non-relaxed systems. This analysis indicates that 84 per cent of groups have galaxy velocities consistent with the normal distribution, while 16 per cent of them have more complex underlying distributions. Properties of the member galaxies are investigated taking into account this classification. Our results indicate that galaxies in Gaussian groups are significantly more evolved than galaxies in non-relaxed systems out to distances of similar to 4R(200), presenting significantly redder (B - R) colours. We also find evidence that galaxies with M(R) <= -21.5 in Gaussian groups are closer to the condition of energy equipartition.

Distribuições hiperbólicas generalizadas: aplicações ao mercado português

O objectivo desta tese é discutir o uso das distribuições hiperbólicas generalizadas como modelo para os retornos logarítmicos de 4 activos do mercado de capitais Português. Os activos em análise são o índice Português PSI 20 e as 3 maiores empresas pertencentes ao PSI 20: PT, EDP e BCP. Os dados são constituidos pelos valores de fecho diário durante mais de 8 anos. Utilizando o software R procederemos à estimação dos parâmetros das distribuições para ajustamento aos dados empíricos. Para medir o grau de ajustamento das distribuições aos dados empíricos usamos os gráficos QQ-plots e 4 distâncias: Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Kuiper, Anderson-Darling e Fajardo-Farias-Ornelas. Os resultados obtidos permitem concluir que o melhor ajustamento é feito pela hiperbólica generalizada e em seguida a distribuição normal inversa gaussiana. Todas as distribuições desta família ajustam-se muito melhor que a distribuição normal. Por último temos uma aplicação ao cálculo do preço de derivados financeiros, nomeadamente a fórmula de uma opção de compra Europeia no modelo discutido.

Parametric VaR with goodness-of-fit tests based on EDF statistics for extreme returns

Parametric VaR (Value-at-Risk) is widely used due to its simplicity and easy calculation. However, the normality assumption, often used in the estimation of the parametric VaR, does not provide satisfactory estimates for risk exposure. Therefore, this study suggests a method for computing the parametric VaR based on goodness-of-fit tests using the empirical distribution function (EDF) for extreme returns, and compares the feasibility of this method for the banking sector in an emerging market and in a developed one. The paper also discusses possible theoretical contributions in related fields like enterprise risk management (ERM). © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

The dynamical state of galaxy groups and their luminosity content

We analyse the dependence of the luminosity function (LF) of galaxies in groups on group dynamical state. We use the Gaussianity of the velocity distribution of galaxy members as a measurement of the dynamical equilibrium of groups identified in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 7 by Zandivarez & Martinez. We apply the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit test to distinguish between groups according to whether they have Gaussian or non-Gaussian velocity distributions, i.e. whether they are relaxed or not. For these two subsamples, we compute the (0.1)r-band LF as a function of group virial mass and group total luminosity. For massive groups, , we find statistically significant differences between the LF of the two subsamples: the LFs of groups that have Gaussian velocity distributions have a brighter characteristic absolute magnitude (similar to 0.3 mag) and a steeper faint-end slope (similar to 0.25). We detect a similar effect when comparing the LF of bright [M-0.1r(group) - 5log(h) < -23.5] Gaussian and non-Gaussian groups. Our results indicate that, for massive/luminous groups, the dynamical state of the system is directly related to the luminosity of its galaxy members.

A comprehensive portfolio construction under stochastic environment

Prior research has established that idiosyncratic volatility of the securities prices exhibits a positive trend. This trend and other factors have made the merits of investment diversification and portfolio construction more compelling. ^ A new optimization technique, a greedy algorithm, is proposed to optimize the weights of assets in a portfolio. The main benefits of using this algorithm are to: (a) increase the efficiency of the portfolio optimization process, (b) implement large-scale optimizations, and (c) improve the resulting optimal weights. In addition, the technique utilizes a novel approach in the construction of a time-varying covariance matrix. This involves the application of a modified integrated dynamic conditional correlation GARCH (IDCC - GARCH) model to account for the dynamics of the conditional covariance matrices that are employed. ^ The stochastic aspects of the expected return of the securities are integrated into the technique through Monte Carlo simulations. Instead of representing the expected returns as deterministic values, they are assigned simulated values based on their historical measures. The time-series of the securities are fitted into a probability distribution that matches the time-series characteristics using the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit criterion. Simulated and actual data sets are used to further generalize the results. Employing the S&P500 securities as the base, 2000 simulated data sets are created using Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, the Russell 1000 securities are used to generate 50 sample data sets. ^ The results indicate an increase in risk-return performance. Choosing the Value-at-Risk (VaR) as the criterion and the Crystal Ball portfolio optimizer, a commercial product currently available on the market, as the comparison for benchmarking, the new greedy technique clearly outperforms others using a sample of the S&P500 and the Russell 1000 securities. The resulting improvements in performance are consistent among five securities selection methods (maximum, minimum, random, absolute minimum, and absolute maximum) and three covariance structures (unconditional, orthogonal GARCH, and integrated dynamic conditional GARCH). ^

A Comprehensive Portfolio Construction Under Stochastic Environment

Prior research has established that idiosyncratic volatility of the securities prices exhibits a positive trend. This trend and other factors have made the merits of investment diversification and portfolio construction more compelling. A new optimization technique, a greedy algorithm, is proposed to optimize the weights of assets in a portfolio. The main benefits of using this algorithm are to: a) increase the efficiency of the portfolio optimization process, b) implement large-scale optimizations, and c) improve the resulting optimal weights. In addition, the technique utilizes a novel approach in the construction of a time-varying covariance matrix. This involves the application of a modified integrated dynamic conditional correlation GARCH (IDCC - GARCH) model to account for the dynamics of the conditional covariance matrices that are employed. The stochastic aspects of the expected return of the securities are integrated into the technique through Monte Carlo simulations. Instead of representing the expected returns as deterministic values, they are assigned simulated values based on their historical measures. The time-series of the securities are fitted into a probability distribution that matches the time-series characteristics using the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit criterion. Simulated and actual data sets are used to further generalize the results. Employing the S&P500 securities as the base, 2000 simulated data sets are created using Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, the Russell 1000 securities are used to generate 50 sample data sets. The results indicate an increase in risk-return performance. Choosing the Value-at-Risk (VaR) as the criterion and the Crystal Ball portfolio optimizer, a commercial product currently available on the market, as the comparison for benchmarking, the new greedy technique clearly outperforms others using a sample of the S&P500 and the Russell 1000 securities. The resulting improvements in performance are consistent among five securities selection methods (maximum, minimum, random, absolute minimum, and absolute maximum) and three covariance structures (unconditional, orthogonal GARCH, and integrated dynamic conditional GARCH).

Long-term Results Of Anderson-hynes Pyeloplasty In Children: How Long Follow-up Is Necessary?

Purpose After a successful pyeloplasty at 3 to 6 months, the question remains whether children need a long follow-up. Methods The medical charts of patients with long-term follow-up (> 5 years), who underwent dismembered pyeloplasty for uretero-pelvic junction obstruction (UPJO) from May 1998 to May 2007, excluding those with bilateral UPJO, solitary kidney, associated vesicoureteral reflux or other abnormalities, and inconclusive renogram due to poor renal function, were retrospectively reviewed. Ultrasonography, differential renal function (DRF, DMSA), and renal drainage on diuretic renography (diethylene-triamine-pentaacetate technetium-99 or DTPA-Tc99) were performed at 3 and 6 months every year. Results Complete data were available for 28 consecutive patients (28 renal unities) with 2 months to 12 years (mean age, 2.4 years) at surgery, of whom 21 (75%) were boys, 17 diagnosed prenatally (61%) and 18 unities (64.3%) were left, with median follow-up of 10.7 years. Images were graded according to the Society for Fetal Urology grading system: Grade III in 11 (49%) and grade IV in 17 (61%). All cases presented > 10% DRF (DMSA) and obstructed DTPA-Tc99. The T1/2 (the half-time of drainage) less than 20 minutes at 3 months was found in 21 cases (75%) and less than 25 minutes in 7 cases (25%). Renal function and patency were maintained during follow-up for all units with 8% maximum fluctuation of DRF. One index case (3.6%) of renal function deterioration presented DRF fluctuation > 8% at 3 months (from 23 to 32%) and progressive hydronephrosis and indeterminate DTPA at 6 months. Conclusions Satisfactory diuretic renogram at 3 to 6 months after pyeloplasty with maintained renal function and stable hydronephrosis suggests no need for further follow-up and indicates no functional loss with time. More than 8% DRF fluctuation might be a significant cutoff for further intervention aiming nephron preservation.

A strategy to fill gaps in soil survey over large spatial extents: an example from the Murray-Darling basin of Australia

We re-mapped the soils of the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) in 1995-1998 with a minimum of new fieldwork, making the most out of existing data. We collated existing digital soil maps and used inductive spatial modelling to predict soil types from those maps combined with environmental predictor variables. Lithology, Landsat Multi Spectral Scanner (Landsat MSS), the 9-s digital elevation model (DEM) of Australia and derived terrain attributes, all gridded to 250-m pixels, were the predictor variables. Because the basin-wide datasets were very large data mining software was used for modelling. Rule induction by data mining was also used to define the spatial domain of extrapolation for the extension of soil-landscape models from existing soil maps. Procedures to estimate the uncertainty associated with the predictions and quality of information for the new soil-landforms map of the MDB are described. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.