Aid effectiveness on accumulation: a meta study

The AEL (aid effectiveness literature) studies the macroeconomic effects of development aid using cross-country or panel data econometrics. It contains 97 papers of which 43 study whether development aid leads to increasing accumulation. The aggregate results of the 43 studies are that aid increases investment with about 25% of the aid, while most of the remaining 75% of the effect is crowded out by a fall in savings. However, these aggregate results are so variable that it is dubious if accumulation rises.

Aid effectiveness on growth : a meta study

The aid effectiveness literature contains about 100 papers that see aid as a treatment given to poor countries to generate development. 68 of these papers provide a total of 543 comparable estimates of the effect of aid on growth, which are the data of our meta-analysis. We consider two questions: (Q1) Are the estimates converging to a clear result over time as aid agencies gain experience, models become better and data accumulates? We find that the results do have a positive average, but it is small, insignificant and falling. (Q2) Can we identify the main factors that explain the large differences in the results? We find that much of the variation between studies can be attributed to publication outlet, institutional affiliation, data and specification differences. However, some of the difference between studies is real. In particular, the aid-growth effect is stronger for Asian countries. The meta-analysis indicates also the existence of indirect channels, which need to be further explored.