Flux comparison of Eulerian and Lagrangian estimates of Agulhas leakage: A case study using a numerical model

Estimating the magnitude of Agulhas leakage, the volume flux of water from the Indian to the Atlantic Ocean, is difficult because of the presence of other circulation systems in the Agulhas region. Indian Ocean water in the Atlantic Ocean is vigorously mixed and diluted in the Cape Basin. Eulerian integration methods, where the velocity field perpendicular to a section is integrated to yield a flux, have to be calibrated so that only the flux by Agulhas leakage is sampled. Two Eulerian methods for estimating the magnitude of Agulhas leakage are tested within a high-resolution two-way nested model with the goal to devise a mooring-based measurement strategy. At the GoodHope line, a section halfway through the Cape Basin, the integrated velocity perpendicular to that line is compared to the magnitude of Agulhas leakage as determined from the transport carried by numerical Lagrangian floats. In the first method, integration is limited to the flux of water warmer and more saline than specific threshold values. These threshold values are determined by maximizing the correlation with the float-determined time series. By using the threshold values, approximately half of the leakage can directly be measured. The total amount of Agulhas leakage can be estimated using a linear regression, within a 90% confidence band of 12 Sv. In the second method, a subregion of the GoodHope line is sought so that integration over that subregion yields an Eulerian flux as close to the float-determined leakage as possible. It appears that when integration is limited within the model to the upper 300 m of the water column within 900 km of the African coast the time series have the smallest root-mean-square difference. This method yields a root-mean-square error of only 5.2 Sv but the 90% confidence band of the estimate is 20 Sv. It is concluded that the optimum thermohaline threshold method leads to more accurate estimates even though the directly measured transport is a factor of two lower than the actual magnitude of Agulhas leakage in this model.

Relating Agulhas leakage to the Agulhas Current retroflection location

The relation between the Agulhas Current retroflection location and the magnitude of Agulhas leakage, the transport of water from the Indian to the Atlantic Ocean, is investigated in a high-resolution numerical ocean model. Sudden eastward retreats of the Agulhas Current retroflection loop are linearly related to the shedding of Agulhas rings, where larger retreats generate larger rings. Using numerical Lagrangian floats a 37 year time series of the magnitude of Agulhas leakage in the model is constructed. The time series exhibits large amounts of variability, both on weekly and annual time scales. A linear relation is found between the magnitude of Agulhas leakage and the location of the Agulhas Current retroflection, both binned to three month averages. In the relation, a more westward location of the Agulhas Current retroflection corresponds to an increased transport from the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean. When this relation is used in a linear regression and applied to almost 20 years of altimetry data, it yields a best estimate of the mean magnitude of Agulhas leakage of 13.2 Sv. The early retroflection of 2000, when Agulhas leakage was probably halved, can be identified using the regression.

A weaker Agulhas Current leads to more Agulhas leakage

Time series of transports in the Agulhas region have been constructed by simulating Lagrangian drifter trajectories in a 1/10 degree two-way nested ocean model. Using these 34 year long time series it is shown that smaller (larger) Agulhas Current transport leads to larger (smaller) Indian-Atlantic inter-ocean exchange. When transport is low, the Agulhas Current detaches farther downstream from the African continental slope. Moreover, the lower inertia suppresses generation of anti-cyclonic vorticity. These two effects cause the Agulhas retroflection to move westward and enhance Agulhas leakage. In the model a 1 Sv decrease in Agulhas Current transport at 32°S results in a 0.7 ± 0.2 Sv increase in Agulhas leakage.

Impacts of interruption of the Agulhas leakage on the tropical Atlantic in coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations

In this paper we use a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to investigate the impact of the interruption of Agulhas leakage of Indian ocean water on the tropical Atlantic, a region where strong coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions occur. The effect of a shut down of leakage of Indian ocean water is isolated from the effect of a collapse of the MOC. In our experiments, the ocean model is forced with boundary conditions in the southeastern corner of the domain that correspond to no interocean exchange of Indian ocean water into the Atlantic. The southern boundary condition is taken from the Levitus data and ensures an MOC in the Atlantic. Within this configuration, instead of warm and salty Indian ocean water temperature (cold) and salinity (fresh) anomalies of southern ocean origin propagate into the South Atlantic and eventually reach the equatorial region, mainly in the thermocline. This set up mimics the closure of the ""warm water path"" in favor of the ""cold water path"". As part of the atmospheric response, there is a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The changes in trade winds lead to reduced Ekman pumping in the equatorial region. This leads to a freshening and warming of the surface waters along the equator. Especially in the Cold Tongue region, the cold and fresh subsurface anomalies do not reach the surface due to the reduced upwelling. The anomaly signals are transported by the equatorial undercurrent and spread away from the equator within the thermocline. Part of the anomaly eventually reaches the Tropical North Atlantic, where it affects the Guinea Dome. Surprisingly, the main effect at the surface is small on the equator and relatively large at the Guinea Dome. In the atmosphere, the northward shift of the ITCZ is associated with a band of negative precipitation anomalies and higher salinities over the Tropical South Atlantic. An important implication of these results is that the modified water characteristics due to a shut down of the Agulhas leakage remain largely unaffected when crossing the equatorial Atlantic and therefore can affect the deepwater formation in the North Atlantic. This supports the hypothesis that the Agulhas leakage is an important source region for climate change and decadal variability of the Atlantic.

Spatio-temporal characteristics of Agulhas leakage: a model inter-comparison study

Investigating the variability of Agulhas leakage, the volume transport of water from the Indian Ocean to the South Atlantic Ocean, is highly relevant due to its potential contribution to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation as well as the global circulation of heat and salt and hence global climate. Quantifying Agulhas leakage is challenging due to the non-linear nature of this process; current observations are insufficient to estimate its variability and ocean models all have biases in this region, even at high resolution . An Eulerian threshold integration method is developed to examine the mechanisms of Agulhas leakage variability in six ocean model simulations of varying resolution. This intercomparison, based on the circulation and thermo- haline structure at the Good Hope line, a transect to the south west of the southern tip of Africa, is used to identify features that are robust regardless of the model used and takes into account the thermohaline biases of each model. When determined by a passive tracer method, 60 % of the magnitude of Agulhas leakage is captured and more than 80 % of its temporal fluctuations, suggesting that the method is appropriate for investigating the variability of Agulhas leakage. In all simulations but one, the major driver of variability is associated with mesoscale features passing through the section. High resolution (<1/10 deg.) hindcast models agree on the temporal (2–4 cycles per year) and spatial (300–500 km) scales of these features corresponding to observed Agulhas Rings. Coarser resolution models (<1/4 deg.) reproduce similar time scale of variability of Agulhas leakage in spite of their difficulties in representing the Agulhas rings properties. A coarser resolution climate model (2 deg.) does not resolve the spatio-temporal mechanism of variability of Agulhas leakage. Hence it is expected to underestimate the contribution of Agulhas Current System to climate variability.

Spatio-temporal characteristics of Agulhas leakage: a model inter-comparison study

Investigating the variability of Agulhas leakage, the volume transport of water from the Indian Ocean to the South Atlantic Ocean, is highly relevant due to its potential contribution to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation as well as the global circulation of heat and salt and hence global climate. Quantifying Agulhas leakage is challenging due to the non-linear nature of this process; current observations are insufficient to estimate its variability and ocean models all have biases in this region, even at high resolution . An Eulerian threshold integration method is developed to examine the mechanisms of Agulhas leakage variability in six ocean model simulations of varying resolution. This intercomparison, based on the circulation and thermo- haline structure at the Good Hope line, a transect to the south west of the southern tip of Africa, is used to identify features that are robust regardless of the model used and takes into account the thermohaline biases of each model. When determined by a passive tracer method, 60 % of the magnitude of Agulhas leakage is captured and more than 80 % of its temporal fluctuations, suggesting that the method is appropriate for investigating the variability of Agulhas leakage. In all simulations but one, the major driver of variability is associated with mesoscale features passing through the section. High resolution (<1/10 deg.) hindcast models agree on the temporal (2–4 cycles per year) and spatial (300–500 km) scales of these features corresponding to observed Agulhas Rings. Coarser resolution models (<1/4 deg.) reproduce similar time scale of variability of Agulhas leakage in spite of their difficulties in representing the Agulhas rings properties. A coarser resolution climate model (2 deg.) does not resolve the spatio-temporal mechanism of variability of Agulhas leakage. Hence it is expected to underestimate the contribution of Agulhas Current System to climate variability.

On the fast decay of Agulhas rings

The Indian Ocean water that ends up in the Atlantic Ocean detaches from the Agulhas Current retroflection predominantly in the form of Agulhas rings and cyclones. Using numerical Lagrangian float trajectories in a high-resolution numerical ocean model, the fate of coherent structures near the Agulhas Current retroflection is investigated. It is shown that within the Agulhas Current, upstream of the retroflection, the spatial distributions of floats ending in the Atlantic Ocean and floats ending in the Indian Ocean are to a large extent similar. This indicates that Agulhas leakage occurs mostly through the detachment of Agulhas rings. After the floats detach from the Agulhas Current, the ambient water quickly looses its relative vorticity. The Agulhas rings thus seem to decay and loose much of their water in the Cape Basin. A cluster analysis reveals that most water in the Agulhas Current is within clusters of 180 km in diameter. Halfway in the Cape Basin there is an increase in the number of larger clusters with low relative vorticity, which carry the bulk of the Agulhas leakage transport through the Cape Basin. This upward cascade with respect to the length scales of the leakage, in combination with a power law decay of the magnitude of relative vorticity, might be an indication that the decay of Agulhas rings is somewhat comparable to the decay of two-dimensional turbulence.

Strontium isotopes, ages and carbonate content of sediments from the Agulhas Current

The Agulhas Leakage represents a significant portion of the warm, surface return flow of the global overturning circulation and thus may be an important feedback in the ocean climate system. Models indicate that reduced leakage could be caused by a stronger Agulhas Current and/or a more upstream (eastward) Agulhas Retroflection, while a weaker Agulhas Current would result in a more westward retroflection and increased leakage. However, data for the Last Glacial Maximum support both a weaker Agulhas Current and less leakage, implying a possible displacement of the retroflection. We present new 87Sr/86Sr results for modern sediments within this region, confirming that the modern pathway of the Agulhas Current, Retroflection, and Leakage can be traced by terrigenous sediment provenance using Sr isotopes. New 87Sr/86Sr data from sediments deposited during the Last Glacial Maximum suggest that the glacial Agulhas Current and Retroflection followed nearly their modern trajectory. The provenance data appear to rule out both a stronger Agulhas Current and a more upstream Agulhas Retroflection. We conclude that the reduced glacial leakage was caused by the weakened Agulhas Current, with no significant change in the retroflection position. This is inconsistent with the model predictions and thus emphasizes the need for further work in this region.

Late Pliocene age models of Agulhas Plateau sediment cores

An ensemble of new, high-resolution records of surface ocean hydrography from the Indian-Atlantic oceanic gateway, south of Africa, demonstrates recurrent and high-amplitude salinity oscillations in the Agulhas Leakage area during the penultimate glacial-interglacial cycle. A series of millennial-scale salinification events, indicating strengthened salt leakage into the South Atlantic, appear to correlate with abrupt changes in the North Atlantic climate and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This interhemispheric coupling, which plausibly involved changes in the Hadley Cell and midlatitude westerlies that impacted the interocean transport at the tip of Africa, suggests that the Agulhas Leakage acted as a source of negative buoyancy for the perturbed AMOC, possibly aiding its return to full strength. Our finding points to the Indian-to-Atlantic salt transport as a potentially important modulator of the AMOC during the abrupt climate changes of the Late Pleistocene.

Multicentennial resolution proxy records from splicings of MD96-2080 and MD02-2594, Agulhas Bank Splice (ABS)

[1] Planktonic d18O and Mg/Ca-derived sea surface temperature (SST) records from the Agulhas Corridor off South Africa display a progressive increase of SST during glacial periods of the last three climatic cycles. The SST increases of up to 4°C coincide with increased abundance of subtropical planktonic foraminiferal marker species which indicates a progressive warming due to an increased influence of subtropical waters at the core sites. Mg/Ca-derived SST maximizes during glacial maxima and glacial Terminations to values about 2.5°C above full-interglacial SST. The paired planktonic d18O and Mg/Ca-derived SST records yield glacial seawater d18O anomalies of up to 0.8 per mill, indicating measurably higher surface salinities during these periods. The SST pattern along our record is markedly different from a UK'37-derived SST record at a nearby core location in the Agulhas Corridor that displays SST maxima only during glacial Terminations. Possible explanations are lateral alkenone advection by the vigorous regional ocean currents or the development of SST contrasts during glacials in association with seasonal changes of Agulhas water transports and lateral shifts of the Agulhas retroflection. The different SST reconstructions derived from UK'37 and Mg/Ca pose a significant challenge to the interpretation of the proxy records and demonstrate that the reconstruction of the Agulhas Current and interocean salt leakage is not as straightforward as previously suggested.

Southern Annular Mode and westerly-wind-driven changes in Indian-Atlantic exchange mechanisms

The dynamical link between the Indian Ocean and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) remains poorly understood. This partly arises from the complex Agulhas leakage, which occurs via rings, cyclones, and non-eddy flux. Hindcast simulations suggest that leakage has recently increased but have not decomposed this signal into its constituent mechanisms. Here these are isolated in a realistic ocean model. Increases in simulated leakage are attributed to stronger eddy and non-eddy-driven transports, and a strong warming and salinification, especially within Agulhas rings. Variability in both regimes is associated with strengthening Indian Ocean westerly winds, reflecting an increasingly positive Southern Annular Mode. While eddy and non-eddy flux signals are tied through turbulent eddy dissipation, the ratio between the two varies decadally. Consequently, while altimetry suggests a recent increase in retroflection turbulence and implied leakage, non-eddy flux may also play a significant role in modulating the leakage AMOC connection.

Observations of the inter-ocean exchange around South Africa

There is growing evidence that the interocean exchange south of Africa is an important link in the global overturning circulation of the ocean, the so‐called ocean conveyer belt. At this location, warm and salty Indian Ocean waters enter the South Atlantic and are pulled by currents that eventually reach the North Atlantic, where water cools and sinks. A major contributor to the exchange is the frequent shedding of ring eddies from the termination of the Agulhas Current south of the tip of Africa. This shedding is controlled by developments far upstream in the Indian Ocean, and variations in this ‘Agulhas Leakage’ can lead to changes in the rate and stability of the Atlantic overturning, with possible associated global climate variations [Weijer et al., 1999]. Regional climate variations in the tropical and subtropical Indian Ocean are known to affect the whole system of the Agulhas Current, including the interocean exchanges. This article reports on some of the seminal results of ongoing multinational, multidisciplinary projects that explore these issues.

The Southern Ocean and Its Climate in CCSM4

The new Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), provides a powerful tool to understand and predict the earth's climate system. Several aspects of the Southern Ocean in the CCSM4 are explored, including the surface climatology and interannual variability, simulation of key climate water masses (Antarctic Bottom Water, Subantarctic Mode Water, and Antarctic Intermediate Water), the transport and structure of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and interbasin exchange via the Agulhas and Tasman leakages and at the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence. It is found that the CCSM4 has varying degrees of accuracy in the simulation of the climate of the Southern Ocean when compared with observations. This study has identified aspects of the model that warrant further analysis that will result in a more comprehensive understanding of ocean-atmosphere-ice dynamics and interactions that control the earth's climate and its variability.

Oxygen and carbon isotope data for benthic foraminifera from DSDP Site 94-608 and ODP Site 208-1264

Small biserial foraminifera were abundant in the early Miocene (ca. 18.9-17.2 Ma) in the eastern Atlantic and western Indian Oceans, but absent in the western equatorial Atlantic Ocean, Weddell Sea, eastern Indian Ocean, and equatorial Pacific Ocean. They have been assigned to the benthic genus Bolivina, but their high abundances in sediments without evidence for dysoxia could not be explained. Apertural morphology, accumulation rates, and isotopic composition show that they were planktic (genus Streptochilus). Living Streptochilus are common in productive waters with intermittent upwelling. The widespread early Miocene high Streptochilus abundances may reflect vigorous but intermittent upwelling, inducing high phytoplankton growth rates. However, export production (estimated from benthic foraminiferal accumulation rates) was low, possibly due to high regeneration rates in a deep thermocline. The upwelled waters may have been an analog to Subantarctic Mode Waters, carrying nutrients into the eastern Atlantic and western Indian Oceans as the result of the initiation of a deep-reaching Antarctic Circumpolar Current, active Agulhas Leakage, and vigorous vertical mixing in the Southern Oceans.