Can we meet targets for biofuels and renewable energy in transport given the constraints imposed by policy in agriculture and energy?

The deployment of biofuels is significantly affected by policy in energy and agriculture. In the energy arena, concerns regarding the sustainability of biofuel systems and their impact on food prices led to a set of sustainability criteria in EU Directive 2009/28/EC on Renewable Energy. In addition, the 10% biofuels target by 2020 was replaced with a 10% renewable energy in transport target. This allows the share of renewable electricity used by electric vehicles to contribute to the mix in achieving the 2020 target. Furthermore, only biofuel systems that effect a 60% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 compared with the fuel they replace are allowed to contribute to meeting the target. In the agricultural arena, cross-compliance (which is part of EU Common Agricultural Policy) dictates the allowable ratio of grassland to total agricultural land, and has a significant impact on which biofuels may be supported. This paper outlines the impact of these policy areas and their implications for the production and use of biofuels in terms of the 2020 target for 10% renewable transport energy, focusing on Ireland. The policies effectively impose constraints on many conventional energy crop biofuels and reinforce the merits of using biomethane, a gaseous biofuel. The analysis shows that Ireland can potentially satisfy 15% of renewable energy in transport by 2020 (allowing for double credit for biofuels from residues and ligno-cellulosic materials, as per Directive 2009/28/EC) through the use of indigenous biofuels: grass biomethane, waste and residue derived biofuels, electric vehicles and rapeseed biodiesel. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate and energy scenarios for Ireland to 2050 using the Irish TIMES energy systems model

Due to growing concerns regarding the anthropogenic interference with the climate system, countries across the world are being challenged to develop effective strategies to mitigate climate change by reducing or preventing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The European Union (EU) is committed to contribute to this challenge by setting a number of climate and energy targets for the years 2020, 2030 and 2050 and then agreeing effort sharing amongst Member States. This thesis focus on one Member State, Ireland, which faces specific challenges and is not on track to meet the targets agreed to date. Before this work commenced, there were no projections of energy demand or supply for Ireland beyond 2020. This thesis uses techno-economic energy modelling instruments to address this knowledge gap. It builds and compares robust, comprehensive policy scenarios, providing a means of assessing the implications of different future energy and emissions pathways for the Irish economy, Ireland’s energy mix and the environment. A central focus of this thesis is to explore the dynamics of the energy system moving towards a low carbon economy. This thesis develops an energy systems model (the Irish TIMES model) to assess the implications of a range of energy and climate policy targets and target years. The thesis also compares the results generated from the least cost scenarios with official projections and target pathways and provides useful metrics and indications to identify key drivers and to support both policy makers and stakeholder in identifying cost optimal strategies. The thesis also extends the functionality of energy system modelling by developing and applying new methodologies to provide additional insights with a focus on particular issues that emerge from the scenario analysis carried out. Firstly, the thesis develops a methodology for soft-linking an energy systems model (Irish TIMES) with a power systems model (PLEXOS) to improve the interpretation of the electricity sector results in the energy system model. The soft-linking enables higher temporal resolution and improved characterisation of power plants and power system operation Secondly, the thesis develops a methodology for the integration of agriculture and energy systems modelling to enable coherent economy wide climate mitigation scenario analysis. This provides a very useful starting point for considering the trade-offs between the energy system and agriculture in the context of a low carbon economy and for enabling analysis of land-use competition. Three specific time scale perspectives are examined in this thesis (2020, 2030, 2050), aligning with key policy target time horizons. The results indicate that Ireland’s short term mandatory emissions reduction target will not be achieved without a significant reassessment of renewable energy policy and that the current dominant policy focus on wind-generated electricity is misplaced. In the medium to long term, the results suggest that energy efficiency is the first cost effective measure to deliver emissions reduction; biomass and biofuels are likely to be the most significant fuel source for Ireland in the context of a low carbon future prompting the need for a detailed assessment of possible implications for sustainability and competition with the agri-food sectors; significant changes are required in infrastructure to deliver deep emissions reductions (to enable the electrification of heat and transport, to accommodate carbon capture and storage facilities (CCS) and for biofuels); competition between energy and agriculture for land-use will become a key issue. The purpose of this thesis is to increase the evidence-based underpinning energy and climate policy decisions in Ireland. The methodology is replicable in other Member States.

Management of the Tongass National Forest [microform] : hearings before the Subcommittee on Forests, Family Farms, and Energy of the Committee on Agriculture, House of Representatives, One Hundredth Congress, second session, on H.R. 1516, May 25 and 26, 1988.

"Serial no. 100-86."

Timber sales on national forests [microform] : hearings before the Subcommittee on Forests, Family Farms, and Energy of the Committee on Agriculture, House of Representatives, One Hundredth Congress, first session, June 17 and 18, 1987.

"Serial no. 100-47."

Exchange certain national forest system lands in the Targhee National Forest [microform] : hearing before the Subcommittee on Forests, Family Farms, and Energy of the Committee on Agriculture, House of Representatives, One Hundredth Congress, second session, on H.R. 4028, April 16, 1988; Driggs, ID and April 27, 1988.

"Serial no. 100-88."

Middle Atlantic Interstate Forest Fire Protection Compact to include the state of Ohio; land conveyance in Henderson, TN; and release a revisionary interest of the United States in certain land located in Oktibbeha County, MS [microform] : hearings before the Subcommittee on Forests, Family Farms, and Energy of the Committee on Agriculture, House of Representatives, One Hundredth Congress, second session, on H.R. 2756, H.R. 2835, and H.R. 4724, May 4, 1988 ... September 22, 1988 ....

"Serial no. 100-89."

Review of the drug law enforcement activities of the Forest Service; and the Omnibus Public Lands Act of 1987 [microform] : hearing before the Subcommittee on Forests, Family Farms, and Energy of the Committee on Agriculture, House of Representatives, One Hundredth Congress, second session, on H.R. 3680, July 12, 1988.

"Serial no. 100-92."

Review of reoffered timber sale appeals and fire salvage efforts in Oregon [microform] : hearing before the Subcommittee on Forests, Family Farms, and Energy of the Committee on Agriculture, House of Representatives, One Hundredth Congress, second session, April 13, 1988.

"Serial no. 100-87."

Review the effects of the 1987 forest fires and the recovery efforts in the national forests in California [microform] : hearing before the Subcommittee on Forests, Family Farms, and Energy of the Committee on Agriculture, House of Representatives, One Hundredth Congress, second session, May 20, 1988, Redding, CA.

"Serial no. 100-90."

Federal timber sales contracts extensions and terminations [microform] : hearings before the Subcommittee on Forests, Family Farms, and Energy of the Committee on Agriculture, House of Representatives, Ninety-seventh Congress, first session, on H.R. 4932 and H.R. 5012, October 15, 1981 and November 23, 1981, Washington, D.C., December 3, 1981, Roseburg, Oreg.

"Serial no. 97-QQ."

National Forest Management Act regulations [microform] : hearing before the Subcommittee on Forests, Family Farms, and Energy of the Committee on Agriculture, House of Representatives, Ninety-seventh Congress, second session, March 10, 1982.

"Serial no. 97-AAA."

Vegetation Management Reform Act of 1981 [microform] : hearing before the Subcommittee on Forests, Family Farms, and Energy of the Committee on Agriculture, House of Representatives, Ninety-seventh Congress, first session, on H.R. 2900, April 16, 1981, Eugene, Oreg.

"Serial no. 97-I."

Beginning Farmers Assistance Act [microform] : hearings before the Subcommittee on Forests, Family Farms, and Energy and the Subcommittee on Conservation, Credit, and Rural Development of the Committee on Agriculture, House of Representatives, Ninety-seventh Congress, first session, on H.R. 2977, June 17 and 18, 1981.

"Serial no. 97-M."

Loan guarantees for alcohol fuels and biomass programs [microform] : hearing before the Subcommittee on Forests, Family Farms, and Energy of the Committee on Agriculture, House of Representatives, Ninety-seventh Congress, first session, March 16, 1981.

"Serial no. 97-C."