The Impact of Population Ageing on the Labour Market: Evidence from Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) Model of Scotland

This paper presents a dynamic Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) model of Scotland. The model is used to examine the impact of population ageing on the labour market. More specifically, it is used to evaluate the effects of labour force decline and labour force ageing on key macro-economic variables. The second effect is assumed to operate through age-specific productivity and labour force participation. In the analysis, particular attention is paid to how population ageing impinges on the government expenditure constraint. The basic structure of the model follows in the Auerbach and Kotlikoff tradition. However, the model takes into consideration directly age-specific mortality. This is analogous to “building in” a cohort-component population projection structure to the model, which allows more complex and more realistic demographic scenarios to be considered.

The Impact of Population Ageing on House Prices: A Micro-simulation Approach

This paper attempts to estimate the impact of population ageing on house prices. There is considerable debate about whether population ageing puts downwards or upwards pressure on house prices. The empirical approach differs from earlier studies of this relationship, which are mainly regression analyses of macro time-series data. A micro-simulation methodology is adopted that combines a macro-level house price model with a micro-level household formation model. The case study is Scotland, a country that is expected to age rapidly in the future. The parameters of the household formation model are estimated with panel data from the British Household Panel Survey covering the period 1999-2008. The estimates are then used to carry out a set of simulations. The simulations are based on a set of population projections that represent a considerable range in the rate of population ageing. The main finding from the simulations is that population ageing—or more generally changes in age structure—is not likely a main determinant of house prices, at least in Scotland.

The Impact of Population Ageing on the Labour Market: Evidence from Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) Model of Scotland

This paper presents a dynamic Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) model of Scotland. The model is used to examine the impact of population ageing on the labour market. More specifically, it is used to evaluate the effects of labour force decline and labour force ageing on key macro-economic variables. The second effect is assumed to operate through age-specific productivity and labour force participation. In the analysis, particular attention is paid to how population ageing impinges on the government expenditure constraint. The basic structure of the model follows in the Auerbach and Kotlikoff tradition. However, the model takes into consideration directly age-specific mortality. This is analogous to “building in” a cohort-component population projection structure to the model, which allows more complex and more realistic demographic scenarios to be considered.

Health and Social Care Implications of Population Ageing In Ireland 1991-2011

This report has two main objectives. The first is to set out national and health board area population projections for Ireland in the period 1991-2011, with special reference to the elderly population. The second is to consider the implications of the predicted trends in the elderly population for health and social care services over the same period, taking account of official policy objectives and service norms for the health services. Download the Report here

Losing Track of Time: Dementia and the ageing prison population

Dementia and the ageing prison population: treatment challenges and examples of good practice.The aims of this report are to scope existing research on treating and managing male offenders with cognitive impairment to identify and share examples of good practice employed by a handful of prisons around the globe.Read full report here (pdf).��

On the rationale of population screening for chronic kidney disease : a public health perspective

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) and its complications represent an enormous and increasing public health burden worldwide [1]. More than one in ten adults suffers from CKD in the general population [2], with a majority of people being in its early stages (i.e. 1 to 3) [2]. In the general population, the prevalence of CKD sharply increases with age [3]. CKD can be considered as a condition associated with premature ageing with accelerated vascular disease [4]. The large number of people with CKD, or at high risk of CKD (i.e. patients with hypertension, diabetes and/or CVD), implies that primary care providers and specialists other than nephrologists frequently encounter patients with CKD [5], a situation in which most CKD cases are diagnosed via opportunistic kidney function screening or automated eGFR reporting. The aim of this review is to discuss the rationale and currently available evidence for, or against, population-based screening for CKD. The focus will be on the situation of screening asymptomatic individuals at early stages of CKD regardless of the presence or absence of CKD risk factors.

An assessment of population structure in eight breeds of cattle using a whole genome SNP panel

Background: Analyses of population structure and breed diversity have provided insight into the origin and evolution of cattle. Previously, these studies have used a low density of microsatellite markers, however, with the large number of single nucleotide polymorphism markers that are now available, it is possible to perform genome wide population genetic analyses in cattle. In this study, we used a high-density panel of SNP markers to examine population structure and diversity among eight cattle breeds sampled from Bos indicus and Bos taurus. Results: Two thousand six hundred and forty one single nucleotide polymorphisms ( SNPs) spanning all of the bovine autosomal genome were genotyped in Angus, Brahman, Charolais, Dutch Black and White Dairy, Holstein, Japanese Black, Limousin and Nelore cattle. Population structure was examined using the linkage model in the program STRUCTURE and Fst estimates were used to construct a neighbor-joining tree to represent the phylogenetic relationship among these breeds. Conclusion: The whole-genome SNP panel identified several levels of population substructure in the set of examined cattle breeds. The greatest level of genetic differentiation was detected between the Bos taurus and Bos indicus breeds. When the Bos indicus breeds were excluded from the analysis, genetic differences among beef versus dairy and European versus Asian breeds were detected among the Bos taurus breeds. Exploration of the number of SNP loci required to differentiate between breeds showed that for 100 SNP loci, individuals could only be correctly clustered into breeds 50% of the time, thus a large number of SNP markers are required to replace the 30 microsatellite markers that are currently commonly used in genetic diversity studies.

Aspects of the biology of the yabby Trypea australiensis (Dana) (Decapoda : Thalassinidea) and the potential of burrow counts as an indirect measure of population density

The thalassinidean shrimp Trypea australiensis (the yabby) commonly occurs on intertidal sandflats and subtidal regions of sheltered embayments and estuaries along the east coast of Australia and is harvested commercially and recreationally for use as bait by anglers. The potential for counts of burrow openings to provide a reliable indirect estimate of the abundance of yabbies was examined on intertidal sandflats on North Stradbroke Island (Queensland, Australia). The relationship between the number of burrow openings and the abundance of yabbies was generally poor and also varied significantly through time, casting doubt on previous estimates of abundance for this species based on unvalidated hole counts. Spatial and temporal variation in population density, the size at maturity and the reproductive period of the yabby were also assessed. Except for an initial peak in abundance as a result of recruitment, the density of yabbies was constant throughout the study but considerably less than that estimated from a previous study in the same area. Ovigerous females were recorded at 3 mm carapace length (CL) which is smaller than previously recorded for this species and thalassinideans in general. Small ovigerous females were found throughout the study, including the summer months, which is unusual for thalassinideans in the intertidal zone. It was hypothesised that in the intertidal zone, small female yabbies may be able to balance the metabolic demands of reproduction and respiration at higher temperatures than can larger females allowing them to reproduce in the warmer months.

Comparative analysis of population structure of endemic Western Atlantic hermit crab Loxopagurus loxochelis (Decapoda, Anomura) in two regions of state of Sao Paulo, Brazil

This work characterized the population structure of the hermit crab Loxopagurus loxochelis (Moreira, 1901) in terms of size frequency distribution and sex ratio. Specimens were collected monthly, over a period of one year (from July 2002 to June 2003), in seven transects (from 5 to 35 m of depth) using fishing boat equipped with two double-rig trawl nets, in Caraguatatuba and Ubatuba regions (state of Sao Paulo, Brazil). A total of 366 hermit crabs were collected in Caraguatatuba [222 males (60.65%), 114 non-ovigerous females (31.15%) and 30 ovigerous females (8.20%)] and 126 hermit crabs in Ubatuba [81 males (64.28%), 38 non-ovigerous females (30.16%) and seven ovigerous females (5.56%)]. In Caraguatatuba the highest incidence of ovigerous females occurred during winter (July 2002), whereas in Ubatuba, the number was incipient. The cephalothoracic shield length ranged from 2.0 to 7.9mm (5.29 +/- 0.96mm) in Caraguatatuba, and from 2.7 to 7.5mm (5.32 +/- 0.95mm) in Ubatuba. The mean size of males was significantly larger than the mean size of females in both regions. Overall sex ratio was in favor of males (1.54:1 in Caraguatatuba and 1.9:1 in Ubatuba). Sexual dimorphism was recorded to L. loxochelis by the presence of males in the largest size classes, following the standard pattern observed in Decapoda. There was an unimodal size distribution for both sexes, with normal distributions in both regions. The higher number of males in relation to females may indicate the existence of different growth and mortality rates between the sexes. Despite of the different geomorphologic characteristics between Caraguatatuba and Ubatuba regions, the dynamics of development was similar for both populations.

A comparative study of population traits between two South American populations of the striped-legged hermit crab Clibanarius vittatus

The striped-legged hermit Crab Clibanarius vittatus, with a geographical distribution covering a wide range Of latitudes in the western Atlantic, was selected for a comparative study on population features between two different areas of the Brazilian coast that are separated by approximately 3000 km. The two populations Were sampled concurrently for nine months. The populations in northern and southeastern Brazil showed different profiles in terms of size of specimens, sex ratio, and shell occupation. The observed plasticity of these life-cycle traits of C. vittatus in relation to local environmental conditions is discussed. (C) 2009 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved

The use and abuse of population viability analysis

A recent study by Brook ef al. empirically tested the performance of population viability analysis (PVA) using data from 21 populations across a wide range of species. The study concluded that PVAs are good at predicting the future dynamics of populations. We suggest that this conclusion is a result of a bias in the studies that Brook et al, included in their analyses, We present arguments that PVAs can only be accurate at predicting extinction probabilities if data are extensive and reliable, and if the distribution of vital rates between individuals and years can be assumed stationary in the future, or if any changes can be accurately predicted. In particular, we note th at although catastrophes are likely to have precipitated many extinctions, estimates of the probability of catastrophes are unreliable.

Development and implementation of the population Fisher information matrix for the evaluation of population pharmacokinetic designs.

In population pharmacokinetic studies, the precision of parameter estimates is dependent on the population design. Methods based on the Fisher information matrix have been developed and extended to population studies to evaluate and optimize designs. In this paper we propose simple programming tools to evaluate population pharmacokinetic designs. This involved the development of an expression for the Fisher information matrix for nonlinear mixed-effects models, including estimation of the variance of the residual error. We implemented this expression as a generic function for two software applications: S-PLUS and MATLAB. The evaluation of population designs based on two pharmacokinetic examples from the literature is shown to illustrate the efficiency and the simplicity of this theoretic approach. Although no optimization method of the design is provided, these functions can be used to select and compare population designs among a large set of possible designs, avoiding a lot of simulations.

Combining the analyses of introgressive hybridisation and linkage mapping to investigate the genetic architecture of population divergence in the lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis, Mitchill)

Adaptation and reproductive isolation, the engines of biological diversity, are still elusive when discussing the genetic bases of speciation. Namely, the number of genes and magnitude of selection acting positively or negatively on genomic traits implicated in speciation is contentious. Here, we describe the first steps of an ongoing research program aimed at understanding the genetic bases of population divergence and reproductive isolation in the lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis). A preliminary linkage map originating from a hybrid cross between dwarf and normal ecotypes is presented, whereby some of the segregating AFLP markers were found to be conserved among natural populations. Maximum-likelihood was used to estimate hybrid indices from non-diagnostic markers at 998 AFLP loci. This allowed identification of the most likely candidate loci that have been under the influence of selection during the natural hybridisation of whitefish originating from different glacial races. As some of these loci could be identified on the linkage map, the possibility that selection of traits in natural populations may eventually be correlated to specific chromosomal regions was demonstrated. The future prospects and potential of these approaches to elucidate the genetic bases of adaptation and reproductive isolation among sympatric ecotypes of lake whitefish is discussed.