Harvest control rule vs optimal harvesting of an age-structured population: The case of the Ibero-Atlantic Sardine Fishery

Research Masters

Asynchronous growth and competition in a two-sex age-structured population model

Asynchronous exponential growth has been extensively studied in population dynamics. In this paper we find out the asymptotic behaviour in a non-linear age-dependent model which takes into account sexual reproduction interactions. The main feature of our model is that the non-linear process converges to a linear one as the solution becomes large, so that the population undergoes asynchronous growth. The steady states analysis and the corresponding stability analysis are completely made and are summarized in a bifurcation diagram according to the parameter R0. Furthermore the effect of intraspecific competition is taken into account, leading to complex dynamics around steady states.

Tuberculosis in Cape Town: An age-structured transmission model.

BACKGROUND Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death in South Africa. The burden of disease varies by age, with peaks in TB notification rates in the HIV-negative population at ages 0-5, 20-24, and 45-49 years. There is little variation between age groups in the rates in the HIV-positive population. The drivers of this age pattern remain unknown. METHODS We developed an age-structured simulation model of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission in Cape Town, South Africa. We considered five states of TB progression: susceptible, infected (latent TB), active TB, treated TB, and treatment default. Latently infected individuals could be re-infected; a previous Mtb infection slowed progression to active disease. We further considered three states of HIV progression: HIV negative, HIV positive, on antiretroviral therapy. To parameterize the model, we analysed treatment outcomes from the Cape Town electronic TB register, social mixing patterns from a Cape Town community and used literature estimates for other parameters. To investigate the main drivers behind the age patterns, we conducted sensitivity analyses on all parameters related to the age structure. RESULTS The model replicated the age patterns in HIV-negative TB notification rates of Cape Town in 2009. Simulated TB notification rate in HIV-negative patients was 1000/100,000 person-years (pyrs) in children aged <5 years and decreased to 51/100,000 in children 5-15 years. The peak in early adulthood occurred at 25-29 years (463/100,000 pyrs). After a subsequent decline, simulated TB notification rates gradually increased from the age of 30 years. Sensitivity analyses showed that the dip after the early adult peak was due to the protective effect of latent TB and that retreatment TB was mainly responsible for the rise in TB notification rates from the age of 30 years. CONCLUSION The protective effect of a first latent infection on subsequent infections and the faster progression in previously treated patients are the key determinants of the age-structure of TB notification rates in Cape Town.

Application of an Acceleration Scheme for an Age-Structured Diffusion Model

In this paper we propose an optimized algorithm, which is faster compared to previously described finite difference acceleration scheme, namely the Modified Super-Time-Stepping (Modified STS) scheme for age- structured population models with diffusion.

Increasing the Calculation Speed of an Acceleration Scheme for an Age-Structured Diffusion Model

Дойчин Бояджиев, Галена Пеловска - В статията се предлага оптимизиран алгоритъм, който е по-бърз в сравнение с по- рано описаната ускорена (модифицирана STS) диференчна схема за възрастово структуриран популационен модел с дифузия. Запазвайки апроксимацията на модифицирания STS алгоритъм, изчислителното времето се намаля почти два пъти. Това прави оптимизирания метод по-предпочитан за задачи с нелинейност или с по-висока размерност.

An age hardening model for Al-7Si-Mg casting alloys

Yield strength (YS) ageing curves have been modelled for A356 and A357 aluminium casting alloys below the solvus temperature of the main hardening precipitate. Predictions are based on the Shercliff and Ashby methodology (Acta MetaH. Mater. 38 (1990) 1789) for wrought alloys. Differences between strengthening in wrought and cast Al-Si-Mg alloys are considered. A Brinell hardness to YS conversion incorporating strain hardening has been established to enable YS ageing curves to be predicted with reduced experimental effort. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Structured and unstructured continuous models for Wolbachia infections

We introduce and investigate a series of models for an infection of a diplodiploid host species by the bacterial endosymbiont Wolbachia. The continuous models are characterized by partial vertical transmission, cytoplasmic incompatibility and fitness costs associated with the infection. A particular aspect of interest is competitions between mutually incompatible strains. We further introduce an age-structured model that takes into account different fertility and mortality rates at different stages of the life cycle of the individuals. With only a few parameters, the ordinary differential equation models exhibit already interesting dynamics and can be used to predict criteria under which a strain of bacteria is able to invade a population. Interestingly, but not surprisingly, the age-structured model shows significant differences concerning the existence and stability of equilibrium solutions compared to the unstructured model.