779 resultados para Age-standardised diabetes
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One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. We used data from 751 studies including 4,372,000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-7.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. Wellcome Trust.
Resumo:
Background: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. Methods: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence - defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7·0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs - in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. Findings: We used data from 751 studies including 4 372 000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4·3% (95% credible interval 2·4-7·0) in 1980 to 9·0% (7·2-11·1) in 2014 in men, and from 5·0% (2·9-7·9) to 7·9% (6·4-9·7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28·5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39·7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31·8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. Interpretation Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults aff ected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.
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Purpose People with diabetes have accelerated age-related biometric ocular changes compared with people without diabetes. We determined the effect of Type 1 diabetes on amplitude of accommodation. Method There were 43 participants (33 ± 8 years) with type 1 diabetes and 32 (34 ± 8 years) age-balanced participants without diabetes. There was no significant difference in the mean equivalent refractive error and visual acuity between the two groups. Amplitude of accommodation was measured using two techniques: objective — by determining the accommodative response to a stimulus in a COAS-HD wavefront aberrometer (Wavefront Sciences), and subjective — with a Badal hand optometer (Rodenstock). The influences of age and diabetes duration (in years) on amplitude of accommodation were analyzed using multiple regression analysis. Results Across both groups, objective amplitude was less than subjective amplitude by 1.4 ± 1.2 D. People with diabetes had lower objective (2.7 ± 1.6 D) and subjective (4.0 ± 1.7 D) amplitudes than people without diabetes (objective 4.1 ± 2.1 D, subjective 5.6 ± 2.1 D). For objective amplitude and the whole group, the duration of diabetes contributed 57% of the variation as did age. For the objective amplitude and only the diabetes group this was 78%. For subjective amplitude, the corresponding proportions were 68% and 103%. Conclusions Both objective and subjective techniques showed lowered amplitude of accommodation in participants with type 1 diabetes when compared with age-matched controls. The loss correlated strongly with duration of diabetes. The results suggest that individuals with diabetes will experience presbyopia earlier in life than people without diabetes, possibly due to metabolic changes in the lens.
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This study compared optics of eyes in people with diabetes with those age-balanced controls. Relative to the control group, the diabetes group demonstrated greater lens thickness, more curved lens shapes, smaller lens diameters, higher light scatter, greater lens yellowing, and poorer focusing ability. While the optics of the people with diabetes made them appear as older eyes than those of people of the same age without diabetes, the differences did not increase significantly with age. It was concluded that age-related changes in eyes of people with diabetes need not be accelerated if the diabetes is well controlled.
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Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0–65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0–71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8–48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6–56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25–39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20–49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.
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This is a comprehensive study of a large range of biometric and optical parameters in people with type 1 diabetes. The parameters of 74 people with type 1 diabetes and an age matched control group were assessed. Most of the people with diabetes had low levels of neuropathy, retinopathy and nephropathy. Marginal or no significant differences were found between groups for corneal shape, corneal thickness, pupil size, and pupil decentrations. Relative to the control group, the diabetes group demonstrated smaller anterior chamber depths, more curved lenses, greater lens thickness and lower lens equivalent refractive index. While the optics of diabetic eyes make them appear as older eyes than those of people of the same age without diabetes, the differences did not increase significantly with age. Age-related changes in the optics of the eyes of people with diabetes need not be accelerated if the diabetes is well controlled.
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Background: Type 2 diabetes mellitus is associated with a diverse range of pathologies. The aim of the study was to determine the incidence of diabetes-related complications, the prevalence of coexistent chronic conditions and to report multimorbidity in people with type 2 diabetes living in the Basque Country. Methods: Administrative databases, in four cross sections (annually from 2007 to 2011) were consulted to analyse 149,015 individual records from patients aged >= 35 years with type 2 diabetes mellitus. The data observed were: age, sex, diabetes-related complications (annual rates of acute myocardial infarction, major amputations and avoidable hospitalisations), diabetes-related pathologies (prevalence of ischaemic heart disease, renal failure, stroke, heart failure, peripheral neuropathy, foot ulcers and diabetic retinopathy) and other unrelated pathologies (44 diseases). Results: The annual incidence for each condition progressively decreased during the four-year period: acute myocardial infarction (0.47 to 0.40%), major amputations (0.10 to 0.08%), and avoidable hospitalisations (5.85 to 5.5%). The prevalence for diabetes-related chronic pathologies was: ischaemic heart disease (11.5%), renal failure (8.4%), stroke (7.0%), heart failure (4.3%), peripheral neuropathy (1.3%), foot ulcers (2.0%) and diabetic retinopathy (7.2%). The prevalence of multimorbidity was 90.4%. The highest prevalence for other chronic conditions was 73.7% for hypertension, 13.8% for dyspepsia and 12.7% for anxiety. Conclusions: In the type 2 diabetes mellitus population living in the Basque Country, incidence rates of diabetes complications are not as high as in other places. However, they present a high prevalence of diabetes related and unrelated diseases. Multimorbidity is very common in this group, and is a factor to be taken into account to ensure correct clinical management.
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Background: More effective treatments have become available for haematological malignancies from the early 2000s, but few large-scale population-based studies have investigated their effect on survival. Using EUROCARE data, and HAEMACARE morphological groupings, we aimed to estimate time trends in population-based survival for 11 lymphoid and myeloid malignancies in 20 European countries, by region and age. Methods: In this retrospective observational study, we included patients (aged 15 years and older) diagnosed with haematological malignancies, diagnosed up to Dec 31, 2007, and followed up to Dec 31, 2008. We used data from the 30 cancer registries (across 20 countries) that provided continuous incidence and good quality data from 1992 to 2007. We used a hybrid approach to estimate age-standardised and age-specific 5-year relative survival, for each malignancy, overall and for five regions (UK, and northern, central, southern, and eastern Europe), and four 3-year periods (1997–99, 2000–02, 2003–05, 2006–08). For each malignancy, we also estimated the relative excess risk of death during the 5 years after diagnosis, by period, age, and region. Findings: We analysed 560 444 cases. From 1997–99 to 2006–08 survival increased for most malignancies: the largest increases were for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (42·0% [95% CI 40·7–43·4] to 55·4% [54·6–56·2], p<0·0001), follicular lymphoma (58·9% [57·3–60·6] to 74·3% [72·9–75·5], p<0·0001), chronic myeloid leukaemia (32·3% [30·6–33·9] to 54·4% [52·5–56·2], p<0·0001), and acute promyelocytic leukaemia (50·1% [43·7–56·2] to 61·9% [57·0–66·4], p=0·0038, estimate not age-standardised). Other survival increases were seen for Hodgkin's lymphoma (75·1% [74·1–76·0] to 79·3% [78·4–80·1], p<0·0001), chronic lymphocytic leukaemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma (66·1% [65·1–67·1] to 69·0% [68·1–69·8], p<0·0001), multiple myeloma/plasmacytoma (29·8% [29·0–30·6] to 39·6% [38·8–40·3], p<0·0001), precursor lymphoblastic leukaemia/lymphoma (29·8% [27·7–32·0] to 41·1% [39·0–43·1], p<0·0001), acute myeloid leukaemia (excluding acute promyelocytic leukaemia, 12·6% [11·9–13·3] to 14·8% [14·2–15·4], p<0·0001), and other myeloproliferative neoplasms (excluding chronic myeloid leukaemia, 70·3% [68·7–71·8] to 74·9% [73·8–75·9], p<0·0001). Survival increased slightly in southern Europe, more in the UK, and conspicuously in northern, central, and eastern Europe. However, eastern European survival was lower than that for other regions. Survival decreased with advancing age, and increased with time only slightly in patients aged 75 years or older, although a 10% increase in survival occurred in elderly patients with follicular lymphoma, diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, and chronic myeloid leukaemia. Interpretation: These trends are encouraging. Widespread use of new and more effective treatment probably explains much of the increased survival. However, the persistent differences in survival across Europe suggest variations in the quality of care and availability of the new treatments. High-resolution studies that collect data about stage at diagnosis and treatments for representative samples of cases could provide further evidence of treatment effectiveness and explain geographic variations in survival.
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Aims - To investigate whether young people with Type 1 diabetes have an increased rate of depression andantidepressant use and whether their risk varies by age group, time from diabetes diagnosis, calendar period ofdiagnosis or complications status. Methods - A cohort of incident cases of patients with Type 1 diabetes diagnosed before 35 years of age (n = 5548) wasidentified within the Clinical Practice Research Datalink and individually age and sex matched with up to two controlsubjects without diabetes (n = 10 657). Patients with depression were identified through general practice-recordeddepression codes and antidepressant prescriptions. Cox regression models gave hazard ratios for depression in peoplewith Type 1 diabetes compared with control subjects. Results - People with Type 1 diabetes were twice as likely to have a record of antidepressant use and generalpractice-diagnosed depression as their matched control subjects (hazard ratio 2.08, 95% CI 1.73–2.50, P < 0.001).These associations varied by time from diagnosis, with marked increases observed within the first 5 years of diagnosis(hazard ratio 2.14, 95% CI 1.51–3.03, P < 0.001), and by age at diabetes diagnosis, with excesses noted even in the 10-to 19-year age group (hazard ratio 1.45, 95% CI 1.06–1.98, P = 0.02). Conclusions - This population-based study shows that people with Type 1 diabetes have higher rates of generalpractice-recorded depression and antidepressant use. The excess is present within 5 years of diabetes diagnosis,suggesting psychological input for patients is warranted in the early years of their condition.
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Bakgrund: Antalet personer med diabetes i världen ökar. Det har blivit en global epidemi. Risken för dödsfall bland människor med diabetes, är ungefär dubbelt så stor, som för människor i samma ålder utan diabetes. Diabetes typ 2 (DT2) är den vanligaste typen av diabetes. Inom hälso- och sjukvården används alltmer motiverande samtal (MI) som behandlingsmetod för livsstilsrelaterade problem som till exempel: kost, motion alkohol och tobak. Syfte: Syftet med studien var att beskriva hur sjuksköterskans användning av MI påverkar livsstilsförändringar hos personer med DT2 och deras upplevelse av behandlingen. Metod: En litteraturöversikt. Resultat: MI som behandlingsmetod gav flera positiva hälsoeffekter. Det framgick bland annat genom en sänkning av HbA1c. Även kunskapsnivån gällande livsstilsförändringar ökade efter MI-behandling. Vid användning av MI stärktes personens inneboende motivation till förändring. Slutsats: MI är en relativt ny metod som ännu inte fått stor genomslag inom diabetesvården. MI ger positiva hälsoeffekter som till exempel sänkt HbA1c. Deltagarna blev mer motiverade och medvetna om sitt eget ansvar för att göra livsstilsförändringar. Mer forskning om MI för personer med DT2 behövs.
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Diabetic nephropathy is the most common cause of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in the United States. African-Americans and patients with type 1 diabetes (T1D) are at increased risk. We studied the rate and factors that influenced progression of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in 401 African-American T1D patients who were followed for 6 years through the observational cohort New Jersey 725 study. Patients with ESRD and/or GFR<20 ml/min were excluded. The mean (SD) baseline GFR was 106.8 (27.04) ml/min and it decreased by 13.8 (mean, SD 32.2) ml/min during the 6-year period (2.3 ml/min/year). In patients with baseline macroproteinuria, GFR decreased by 31.8 (39.0) ml/min (5.3 ml/min/year) compared to 8.2 (mean, SD 27.6) ml/min (1.3 ml/min/year) in patients without it (p<0.00001). Six-year GFR fell to <20 ml/min in 5.25% of all patients, but in 16.8% of macroproteinuric patients.^ A model including baseline GFR, proteinuria category and hypertension category, explained 35% of the 6-year GFR variability (p<0.0001). After adjustment for other variables in the model, 6-year GFR was 24.9 ml/min lower in macroproteinuric patients than in those without proteinuria (p=0.0001), and 12.6 ml/min lower in patients with treated but uncontrolled hypertension compared to normotensive patients (p=0.003). In this sample of patients, with an elevated mean glycosylated hemoglobin of 12.4%, glycemic control did not independently influence GFR deterioration, nor did BMI, cholesterol, gender, age at diabetes onset or socioeconomic level.^ Taken together, our findings suggest that proteinuria and hypertension are the most important factors associated with GFR deterioration in African-American T1D patients.^
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Diabetes is the most common disease nowadays in all populations and in all age groups. diabetes contributing to heart disease, increases the risks of developing kidney disease, blindness, nerve damage, and blood vessel damage. Diabetes disease diagnosis via proper interpretation of the diabetes data is an important classification problem. Different techniques of artificial intelligence has been applied to diabetes problem. The purpose of this study is apply the artificial metaplasticity on multilayer perceptron (AMMLP) as a data mining (DM) technique for the diabetes disease diagnosis. The Pima Indians diabetes was used to test the proposed model AMMLP. The results obtained by AMMLP were compared with decision tree (DT), Bayesian classifier (BC) and other algorithms, recently proposed by other researchers, that were applied to the same database. The robustness of the algorithms are examined using classification accuracy, analysis of sensitivity and specificity, confusion matrix. The results obtained by AMMLP are superior to obtained by DT and BC.
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With the development of an insulin autoantibody (IAA) assay performed in 96-well filtration plates, we have evaluated prospectively the development of IAA in NOD mice (from 4 weeks of age) and children (from 7 to 10 months of age) at genetic risk for the development of type 1 diabetes. NOD mice had heterogeneous expression of IAA despite being inbred. IAA reached a peak between 8 and 16 weeks and then declined. IAA expression by NOD mice at 8 weeks of age was strongly associated with early development of diabetes, which occurred at 16–18 weeks of age (NOD mice IAA+ at 8 weeks: 83% (5/6) diabetic by 18 weeks versus 11% (1/9) of IAA negative at 8 weeks; P < .01). In man, IAA was frequently present as early as 9 months of age, the first sampling time. Of five children found to have persistent IAA before 1 year of age, four have progressed to diabetes (all before 3.5 years of age) and the fifth is currently less than age 2. Of the 929 children not expressing persistent IAA before age 1, only one has progressed to diabetes to date (age onset 3), and this child expressed IAA at his second visit (age 1.1). In new onset patients, the highest levels of IAA correlated with an earlier age of diabetes onset. Our data suggest that the program for developing diabetes of NOD mice and humans is relatively “fixed” early in life and, for NOD mice, a high risk of early development of diabetes is often determined by 8 weeks of age. With such early determination of high risk of progression to diabetes, immunologic therapies in humans may need to be tested in children before the development of IAA for maximal efficacy.
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Introduction and Aims: Since the 1990s illicit drug use death rates in Australia have increased markedly. There is a notable gap in knowledge about changing socio-economic inequalities in drug use death rates. Some limited Australian and overseas data point to higher rates of drug death in the lowest socio-economic groups, but the paucity of available studies and their sometimes conflicting findings need to be addressed. Design and Methods: This paper uses data obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) to examine changes in age-standardised drug-induced mortality rates for Australian males over the period 1981 – 2002. Socio-economic status was categorised as manual or non-manual work status. Results: With the rapid increase in drug-induced mortality rates in the 1990s, there was a parallel increase in socio-economic inequalities in drug-induced deaths. The decline in drug death rates from 2000 onwards was associated with a decline in socio-economic inequalities. By 2002, manual workers had drug death rates well over twice the rate of non-manual workers. Discussion: Three factors are identified which contribute to these socio-economic inequalities in mortality. First, there has been an age shift in deaths evident only for manual workers. Secondly, there has been an increase in availability until 1999 and a relative decline in the cost of the drug, which most often leads to drug death (heroin). Thirdly, there has been a shift to amphetamine use which may lead to significant levels of morbidity, but few deaths. [Najman JM, Toloo G, Williams GM. Increasing socio-economic inequalities in drug-induced deaths in Australia: 1981–2002.
