Beyond the Fragmentation Threshold Hypothesis: Regime Shifts in Biodiversity Across Fragmented Landscapes

Ecological systems are vulnerable to irreversible change when key system properties are pushed over thresholds, resulting in the loss of resilience and the precipitation of a regime shift. Perhaps the most important of such properties in human-modified landscapes is the total amount of remnant native vegetation. In a seminal study Andren proposed the existence of a fragmentation threshold in the total amount of remnant vegetation, below which landscape-scale connectivity is eroded and local species richness and abundance become dependent on patch size. Despite the fact that species patch-area effects have been a mainstay of conservation science there has yet to be a robust empirical evaluation of this hypothesis. Here we present and test a new conceptual model describing the mechanisms and consequences of biodiversity change in fragmented landscapes, identifying the fragmentation threshold as a first step in a positive feedback mechanism that has the capacity to impair ecological resilience, and drive a regime shift in biodiversity. The model considers that local extinction risk is defined by patch size, and immigration rates by landscape vegetation cover, and that the recovery from local species losses depends upon the landscape species pool. Using a unique dataset on the distribution of non-volant small mammals across replicate landscapes in the Atlantic forest of Brazil, we found strong evidence for our model predictions - that patch-area effects are evident only at intermediate levels of total forest cover, where landscape diversity is still high and opportunities for enhancing biodiversity through local management are greatest. Furthermore, high levels of forest loss can push native biota through an extinction filter, and result in the abrupt, landscape-wide loss of forest-specialist taxa, ecological resilience and management effectiveness. The proposed model links hitherto distinct theoretical approaches within a single framework, providing a powerful tool for analysing the potential effectiveness of management interventions.

Evolutionary dynamics on rugged fitness landscapes: Exact dynamics and information theoretical aspects

The parallel mutation-selection evolutionary dynamics, in which mutation and replication are independent events, is solved exactly in the case that the Malthusian fitnesses associated to the genomes are described by the random energy model (REM) and by a ferromagnetic version of the REM. The solution method uses the mapping of the evolutionary dynamics into a quantum Ising chain in a transverse field and the Suzuki-Trotter formalism to calculate the transition probabilities between configurations at different times. We find that in the case of the REM landscape the dynamics can exhibit three distinct regimes: pure diffusion or stasis for short times, depending on the fitness of the initial configuration, and a spin-glass regime for large times. The dynamic transition between these dynamical regimes is marked by discontinuities in the mean-fitness as well as in the overlap with the initial reference sequence. The relaxation to equilibrium is described by an inverse time decay. In the ferromagnetic REM, we find in addition to these three regimes, a ferromagnetic regime where the overlap and the mean-fitness are frozen. In this case, the system relaxes to equilibrium in a finite time. The relevance of our results to information processing aspects of evolution is discussed.

Studies of Cognition and Emotion in Organisations: Attribution, Affective Events, Emotional Intelligence and Perception of Emotion

This article details the author’s attempts to improve understanding of organisational behaviour through investigation of the cognitive and affective processes that underlie attitudes and behaviour. To this end, the paper describes the author’s earlier work on the attribution theory of leadership and, more recently, in three areas of emotion research: affective events theory, emotional intelligence, and the effect of supervisors’ facial expression on employees’ perceptions of leader-member exchange quality. The paper summarises the author’s research on these topics, shows how they have contributed to furthering our understanding of organisational behaviour, suggests where research in these areas are going, and draws some conclusions for management practice.

Using FCD Mapper Software and Landsat Images to Assess Forest Canopy Density in Landscapes in Australia and the Philippines

Using Landsat imagery, forest canopy density (FCD) estimated with the FCD Mapper®, was correlated with predominant height (PDH, measured as the average height of the tallest 50 trees per hectare) for 20 field plots measured in native forest at Noosa Heads, south-east Queensland, Australia. A corresponding image was used to calculate FCD in Leyte Island, the Philippines and was validated on the ground for accuracy. The FCD Mapper was produced for the International Tropical Timber Organisation and estimates FCD as an index of canopy density using reflectance characteristics of Landsat Enhanced Thematic (ETM) Mapper images. The FCD Mapper is a ‘semi-expert’ computer program which uses interactive screens to allow the operator to make decisions concerning the classification of land into bare soil, grass and forest. At Noosa, a positive strong nonlinear relationship (r2 = 0.86) was found between FCD and PDH for 15 field plots with variable PDH but complete canopy closure. An additional five field plots were measured in forest with a broken canopy and the software assessed these plots as having a much lower FCD than forest with canopy closure. FCD estimates for forest and agricultural land in the island of Leyte and subsequent field validation showed that at appropriate settings, the FCD Mapper differentiated between tropical rainforest and banana or coconut plantation. These findings suggest that in forests with a closed canopy this remote sensing technique has promise for forest inventory and productivity assessment. The findings also suggest that the software has promise for discriminating between native forest with a complete canopy and forest which has a broken canopy, such as coconut or banana plantation.

Combining GIS and Expert Opinion to Model Landscapes for a Smallholder Forest Extension Program in Leyte, the Philippines

A Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to model datasets of Leyte Island, the Philippines, to identify land which was suitable for a forest extension program on the island. The datasets were modelled to provide maps of the distance of land from cities and towns, land which was a suitable elevation and slope for smallholder forestry and land of various soil types. An expert group was used to assign numeric site suitabilities to the soil types and maps of site suitability were used to assist the selection of municipalities for the provision of extension assistance to smallholders. Modelling of the datasets was facilitated by recent developments of the ArcGIS® suite of computer programs and derivation of elevation and slope was assisted by the availability of digital elevation models (DEM) produced by the Shuttle Radar Topography (SRTM) mission. The usefulness of GIS software as a decision support tool for small-scale forestry extension programs is discussed.

Decreased perinatal sunshine duration is associated with increased non-affective but not affective psychosis birth rates

We have previously found an association between variations in schizophrenia birth rates and varyinglevels of perinatal sunshine duration. This study examines whether such an association can also be found for Ža. affective psychosis, and Žb. broadly defined nonaffective psychoses. Data for individuals born between 1931 and 1970 in Australia with ICD9 Other PsychosisŽ295–299.were obtained from the Queensland Mental Health Statistical System. ‘Affective psychosis’ included affective psychosis, schizo-affective psychosis, and depressive and excitative non-organic psychoses. ‘Non-affective psychosis’ included chizophrenia, paranoid disorders and other non-organic psychoses. Those receiving both affective and non-affective psychotic diagnoses were excluded. Rates per 10,000 live monthly general population births were calculated. For each month, we assessed the agreementŽusing the kappa statistic. between trends in Ža. birth rates and Žb. long-term trends in seasonally adjusted perinatal sunshine duration. The analyses were performed separately for males and females. There were 6265 with non-affective psychosis ŽMs3964 rate 66r10,000; Fs2299 44r10,000. and 2858 with affective psychosisŽMs1392 24r10,000; Fs1466 28r10,000.. There were no significant associations between Ža. affective psychosis birth rates for either males or females and Žb. sunshine duration. There was a significant association between nonaffective psychosis birth rates for males only and Žb. sunshine duration Žkappas0.15 p-0.001.. This suggests that, as a risk factor, the effect of reduced perinatal sunshine is specifically associated with males who develop non-affective psychosis. The Stanley Foundation supported this project.

Is affective learning really resistant to extinction? Stimulus ratings and affective priming give different answers

Affective learning, the learning of likes and dislikes, is proposed to differ from signal learning, the learning of relationships between events. However, affective learning research varies in the methodology used, and in addition, researchers concerned primarily with affective learning tend to use different paradigms from those concerned with signal learning. The current research used an affective priming task in addition to verbal ratings to assess changes in the valence of neutral geometric shapes in an aversive differential conditioning procedure. After acquisition, affective learning was present as indexed by ratings and affective priming, whereas after extinction, affective learning remained significant only in the ratings. This study suggests that different measures of affective learning may be differentially sensitive to valence, which has implications for studies that employ verbal ratings as the sole measure of affective learning. Moreover, there is no evidence from the current study that affective learning differs from signal learning.

Extinction of affective learning: No evidence for dual process accounts of human learning

The acquisition and extinction of affective valence to neutral geometrical shape conditional stimuli was investigated in three experiments. Experiment 1 employed a differential conditioning procedure with aversive shock USs. Differential electrodermal responding was evident during acquisition and lost during extinction. As indexed by verbal ratings, the CS1 acquired negative valence during acquisition,which was reduced after extinction. Affective priming, a reaction time based demand free measure of stimulus valence, failed to provide evidence for affective learning. Experiment 2 employed pictures of happy and angry faces as USs.Valence ratings after acquisitionweremore positive for theCS paired with happy faces (CS-H) and less positive for the CS paired with angry faces (CS-A) than during baseline. Extinction training reduced the extent of acquired valence significantly for both CSs, however, ratings of the CS-A remained different from baseline. Affective priming confirmed these results yielding differences between CS-A and CS-H after acquisition for pleasant and unpleasant targets, but for pleasant targets only after extinction. Experiment 3 replicated the design of Experiment 2, but presented the US pictures backwardly masked. Neither rating nor affective priming measures yielded any evidence for affective learning. The present results confirm across two different experimental procedures that, contrary to predictions from dual process accounts of human learning, affective learning is subject to extinction.

Age-at-first-registration for affective psychosis and schizophrenia

We compared the age-at-first-registration for patients with schizophrenia and affective psychosis in a statewide mental health register. After excluding those receiving (1) a diagnosis of both schizophrenia (ICD-9 295.x) and affective psychosis (ICD-9 296.x), or (2) a diagnosis of ICD-9 296.1 (which can cover major depressive episode), we adjusted the distributions for the age structure of the background general population. We found that all distributions showed a wide age range of onset, with a similar male modal age group of 20-24 for schizophrenia and 25-29 for affective psychosis. The female modal age group was 50-54 for both diagnoses. Although more individuals were diagnosed with schizophrenia (males = 2,434, females = 1,609) than with affective psychosis (males = 670, females = 913), the shape of the two distributions was similar. This finding suggests that factors influencing age-at-first-registration for schizophrenia and affective psychosis may be similar, especially for females.