Protecting World Heritage sites from the adverse impacts of climate change : obligations for States Parties to the World Heritage Convention

Through its mandate to protect and preserve places of ‘outstanding universal value’, the World Heritage Convention provides an unlikely yet effective tool in global efforts to mitigate climate change. The practical efficacy of the Strategy to Assist States Parties to Implement Appropriate Management Responses (‘the Strategy’), which represents the World Heritage Committee’s primary response to the threats posed by climate change to World Heritage sites, is undermined by its weak stance on mitigation. This paper argues that the World Heritage Convention imposes stronger obligations on States Parties than those contained in the Strategy, including a duty on States Parties to commit to ‘deep cuts’ in greenhouse gas emissions. In order to ensure the continuing success of the World Heritage Convention States Parties must engage in extensive mitigation strategies without delay.

Creating a Sustainability Scorecard as a predictive tool for measuring the complex social, economic and environmental impacts of industries, a case study : assessing the viability and sustainability of the dairy industry

Sustainability is a key driver for decisions in the management and future development of industries. The World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED, 1987) outlined imperatives which need to be met for environmental, economic and social sustainability. Development of strategies for measuring and improving sustainability in and across these domains, however, has been hindered by intense debate between advocates for one approach fearing that efforts by those who advocate for another could have unintended adverse impacts. Studies attempting to compare the sustainability performance of countries and industries have also found ratings of performance quite variable depending on the sustainability indices used. Quantifying and comparing the sustainability of industries across the triple bottom line of economy, environment and social impact continues to be problematic. Using the Australian dairy industry as a case study, a Sustainability Scorecard, developed as a Bayesian network model, is proposed as an adaptable tool to enable informed assessment, dialogue and negotiation of strategies at a global level as well as being suitable for developing local solutions.

Evaluation of the impacts of spaying by either the dropped ovary technique or ovariectomy via flank laparotomy on the welfare of Bos indicus beef heifers and cows

The welfare outcomes for Bos indicus cattle (100 heifers and 50 cows) spayed by either the dropped ovary technique (DOT) or ovariectomy via flank laparotomy (FL) were compared with cattle subjected to physical restraint (PR), restraint by electroimmobilization in conjunction with PR (EIM), and PR and mock AI (MAI). Welfare assessment used measures of morbidity, mortality, BW change, and behavior and physiology indicative of pain and stress. One FL heifer died at d 5 from peritonitis. In the 8-h period postprocedures, plasma bound cortisol concentrations of FL, DOT, and EIM cows were not different and were greater (P < 0.05) than PR and MAI. Similarly, FL and DOT heifers had greater (P < 0.05) concentrations than PR and MAI, with EIM intermediate. Creatine kinase and aspartate aminotransferase concentrations were greater (P < 0.05) in FL and EIM heifers compared with the other treatments, with a similar pattern seen in the cows. Haptoglobin concentrations were significantly (P < 0.05) increased in the FL heifers compared with other treatments in the 8- to 24-h and 24- to 96-h periods postprocedures, and in cows were significantly (P < 0.05) increased in the FL and DOT compared with PR in the 24- to 96-h period. Behavioral responses complemented the physiological responses; standing head down was shown by more (P < 0.05) FL cows and heifers to 3 d postprocedures compared with other treatments, although there was no difference between FL and DOT heifers at the end of the day of procedures. At this same time, fewer (P < 0.05) FL and DOT heifers and cows were observed feeding compared with other treatments, although in cows there was no difference between FL, DOT, and EIM. There were no significant differences (P > 0.05) between treatments in BW changes. For both heifers and cows, FL and DOT spaying caused similar levels of acute pain, but FL had longer-lasting adverse impacts on welfare. Electroimmobilization during FL contributed to the pain and stress of the procedure. We conclude that: i) FL and DOT spaying should not be conducted without measures to manage the associated pain and stress; ii) DOT spaying is preferable to FL spaying; iii) spaying heifers is preferable to spaying cows; and iv) electroimmobilization causes pain and stress and should not be routinely used as a method of restraint.

Robust features of future climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa

West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate hazards and better quantification and understanding of the impact of climate change on crop yields are urgently needed. Here we provide an assessment of near-term climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa and account for uncertainties both in future climate scenarios and in crop models. Towards this goal, we use simulations of nine bias-corrected CMIP5 climate models and two crop models (SARRA-H and APSIM) to evaluate the robustness of projected crop yield impacts in this area. In broad agreement with the full CMIP5 ensemble, our subset of bias-corrected climate models projects a mean warming of +2.8 °C in the decades of 2031–2060 compared to a baseline of 1961–1990 and a robust change in rainfall in West Africa with less rain in the Western part of the Sahel (Senegal, South-West Mali) and more rain in Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, South-West Niger). Projected rainfall deficits are concentrated in early monsoon season in the Western part of the Sahel while positive rainfall changes are found in late monsoon season all over the Sahel, suggesting a shift in the seasonality of the monsoon. In response to such climate change, but without accounting for direct crop responses to CO2, mean crop yield decreases by about 16–20% and year-to-year variability increases in the Western part of the Sahel, while the eastern domain sees much milder impacts. Such differences in climate and impacts projections between the Western and Eastern parts of the Sahel are highly consistent across the climate and crop models used in this study. We investigate the robustness of impacts for different choices of cultivars, nutrient treatments, and crop responses to CO2. Adverse impacts on mean yield and yield variability are lowest for modern cultivars, as their short and nearly fixed growth cycle appears to be more resilient to the seasonality shift of the monsoon, thus suggesting shorter season varieties could be considered a potential adaptation to ongoing climate changes. Easing nitrogen stress via increasing fertilizer inputs would increase absolute yields, but also make the crops more responsive to climate stresses, thus enhancing the negative impacts of climate change in a relative sense. Finally, CO2 fertilization would significantly offset the negative climate

Exploring the Potential Impacts of Climate Variability on Spring Wheat Yield with the APSIM Decision Support Tool

Assessing the impacts of climate variability on agricultural productivity at regional, national or global scale is essential for defining adaptation and mitigation strategies. We explore in this study the potential changes in spring wheat yields at Swift Current and Melfort, Canada, for different sowing windows under projected climate scenarios (i.e., the representative concentration pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). First, the APSIM model was calibrated and evaluated at the study sites using data from long term experimental field plots. Then, the impacts of change in sowing dates on final yield were assessed over the 2030-2099 period with a 1990-2009 baseline period of observed yield data, assuming that other crop management practices remained unchanged. Results showed that the performance of APSIM was quite satisfactory with an index of agreement of 0.80, R2 of 0.54, and mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of 529 kg/ha and 1023 kg/ha, respectively (MAE = 476 kg/ha and RMSE = 684 kg/ha in calibration phase). Under the projected climate conditions, a general trend in yield loss was observed regardless of the sowing window, with a range from -24 to -94 depending on the site and the RCP, and noticeable losses during the 2060s and beyond (increasing CO2 effects being excluded). Smallest yield losses obtained through earlier possible sowing date (i.e., mid-April) under the projected future climate suggested that this option might be explored for mitigating possible adverse impacts of climate variability. Our findings could therefore serve as a basis for using APSIM as a decision support tool for adaptation/mitigation options under potential climate variability within Western Canada.

Assessment of the potential impacts of coasteering on rocky intertidal habitats in Wales

The relatively new recreational pursuit of coasteering, which has developed in the St David's area of Pembrokeshire, appears to be expanding rapidly. The majority of local commercial recreation providers (outdoor pursuit centers etc.) now appear to offer this pursuit. The majority of the rocky coastlines where it takes place lie within Pembrokeshire Marine Special Area of Conservation (SAC), and are also Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI). No assessment has yet been undertaken of coasteering's potential impact on the intertidal habitats. Therefore the Countryside Council for Wales (CCW) commissioned the Marine Life Information Network (MarLIN) to undertake a desk study of the likely environmental effects of coasteering on rocky intertidal habitats within the Pembrokeshire marine SAC. The desk study was based on a review of the available literature, and in particular the effects of trampling on rocky intertidal communities. Communities (as biotopes) within the Pembrokeshire marine SAC likely to be exposed to coasteering activities were identified from Phase I biotope data for the area, provided by CCW. Where possible, existing research by MarLIN into the intolerance, recoverability and sensitivity of the biotopes identified, was used to identify their potential vulnerability to trampling. The literature review revealed that: - foliose canopy forming algae (e.g. fucoids) were particularly intolerant and sensitive to trampling impacts; - trampling damaged erect coralline turfs, barnacles, and resulted in an increase in bare space; in some cases paths across the shore were visible; - on brown algae dominated shores, understorey algae could suffer due to increased desiccation but algal turf species, opportunists and gastropod grazers (e.g. limpets) could increase in abundance as an indirect effect of trampling, and that - trampling impacts resulted from physical contact and wear and were dependant on the intensity, duration, and frequency of trampling, and even the type of footwear used. A total of 19 intolerant rocky intertidal biotopes were identified as potentially vulnerable to trampling and hence coasteering within the Pembrokeshire marine SAC, of which six are of Welsh importance and eight are nationally rare or scarce. Trampling is a highly localized impact and it was not possible to identify biotopes, and hence communities, actually impacted by coasteering activities in the Pembrokeshire marine SAC. In addition, the majority of the literature addresses the impacts of trampling on wave sheltered or moderately exposed brown algal dominated shores, while coasteering occurs on more wave exposed, steeply inclined shores. Therefore, direct survey of the routes used by coasteering groups within the Pembrokeshire marine SAC is required to identify the intensity, duration and frequency of trampling impact, together with the communities impacted. Given the paucity of data concerning trampling effects in the rocky intertidal in the UK, a survey of the impacts of coasteering would provide an opportunity to examine the effects of trampling and visitor use in steep rocky, wave exposed shores. The report recognizes the potential to engage coasteerers in contributing to the development of strategies for minimizing adverse impacts, recording impacts and collecting information of use in identifying climate change and the occurrence of non-native species.

The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale

This paper presents an assessment of the implications of climate change for global river flood risk. It is based on the estimation of flood frequency relationships at a grid resolution of 0.5 × 0.5°, using a global hydrological model with climate scenarios derived from 21 climate models, together with projections of future population. Four indicators of the flood hazard are calculated; change in the magnitude and return period of flood peaks, flood-prone population and cropland exposed to substantial change in flood frequency, and a generalised measure of regional flood risk based on combining frequency curves with generic flood damage functions. Under one climate model, emissions and socioeconomic scenario (HadCM3 and SRES A1b), in 2050 the current 100-year flood would occur at least twice as frequently across 40 % of the globe, approximately 450 million flood-prone people and 430 thousand km2 of flood-prone cropland would be exposed to a doubling of flood frequency, and global flood risk would increase by approximately 187 % over the risk in 2050 in the absence of climate change. There is strong regional variability (most adverse impacts would be in Asia), and considerable variability between climate models. In 2050, the range in increased exposure across 21 climate models under SRES A1b is 31–450 million people and 59 to 430 thousand km2 of cropland, and the change in risk varies between −9 and +376 %. The paper presents impacts by region, and also presents relationships between change in global mean surface temperature and impacts on the global flood hazard. There are a number of caveats with the analysis; it is based on one global hydrological model only, the climate scenarios are constructed using pattern-scaling, and the precise impacts are sensitive to some of the assumptions in the definition and application.

Expert systems modeling for assessing climate change impacts and adaptation in agricultural systems at regional level

Australian agriculture is very susceptible to the adverse impacts of climate change, with major shifts in temperature and rainfall projected. In this context, this paper describes a research methodology for assessing potential climate change impacts on, and formulating adaptation options for, agriculture at regional level. The methodology was developed and applied in the analysis of climate change impacts on key horticultural commodities—pome fruits (apples and pears), stone fruits (peaches and nectarines) and wine grapes—in the Goulburn Broken catchment management region, State of Victoria, Australia. Core components of the methodology are mathematical models that enable to spatially represent the degree of biophysical land suitability for the growth of agricultural commodities in the region of interest given current and future climatic conditions. The methodology provides a sound analytic approach to 1) recognise regions under threat of declines in agricultural production due to unfolding climatic changes; 2) identify alternative agricultural systems better adapted to likely future climatic conditions and 3) investigate incremental and transformational adaptation actions to improve the problem situations that are being created by climate change.

Implications of stillage land disposal: A critical review on the impacts of fertigation

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Political crisis and suspension of duty-free access in Madagascar : assessment of impacts on the garment industry

The export-oriented garment industry in Madagascar has displayed robust growth, thus both contributing to the economy and creating formal employment opportunities. However, it experienced a critical situation after the political turmoil that occurred in 2009. Our investigation using the trade data demonstrates that suspension of duty-free access to the US market (AGOA) resulting from the turmoil had a greater impact on exports, 64%–78% reduction, than the turmoil itself. Our original factory-level data demonstrates that AGOA suspension increased the probability of closure by 57.8% for the factories supplying exclusively to US market, and reduced 6405 jobs for low-skilled positions during the post turmoil period. The factory-level adverse impacts are much less than those on export value at the industry level because of the maintained duty-free access to EU, which has provided an alternative market. It suggests that if EU also had cancelled duty-free access, adverse impacts would have been enormous. Given the general pattern of comparative advantage in low-income countries, unplanned cancellation of duty-free access for them hurts labor-intensive industries and low-skilled workers.

Potential Adverse Effects of the Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline on Arctic Caribou and Proposed Mitigation

The Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline (ANGP) is proposed for construction on the North Slope in 2016. It will be aligned through Arctic caribou habitat and evidence shows that caribou are negatively affected by human development. This Capstone identifies potential adverse affects of ANGP on Arctic caribou using interviews from expert caribou biologists and the 1977 Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS) as a model. Based on a synthesis of the interviews and TAPS analysis, this capstone proposes and examines a set of seventeen conservation measures to be implemented during construction and operation of ANGP to minimize adverse impacts on caribou herds. These conservation measures can be used as a baseline for future developments on the North Slope to promote caribou herd management.

Assessing the vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change

There is an urgent need to assess the vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change. This paper aims to provide an overview of current research, to identify knowledge gaps, and to propose future research needs in this challenging area. Evidence shows that climate change is affecting and will, in the future, have more (mostly adverse) impacts on ecosystems. Ecosystem degradation, particularly the decline of the life support systems, will undoubtedly affect human health and wellbeing. Therefore, it is important to develop a framework to assess the vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change, and to identify appropriate adaptation strategies to minimize the impact of climate change.

Test of a model of the effects of parental illness on youth and family functioning

Objective: Parental illness (PI) may have adverse impacts on youth and family functioning. Research in this area has suffered from the absence of a guiding comprehensive framework. This study tested a conceptual model of the effects of PI on youth and family functioning derived from the Family Ecology Framework (FEF; Pedersen & Revenson, 2005). Method. A total of 85 parents with multiple sclerosis and 127 youth completed questionnaires at Time 1 and 12 months later at Time 2. Results. Structural equation modeling results supported the FEF with regards to physical-illness disability. Specifically, the proposed mediators (role redistribution, stress, and stigma) were implicated in the processes that link parental disability to several domains of youth adjustment. The results suggest that the effects of parental depression (PD) are not mediated through these processes; rather, PD directly affects family functioning, which in turn mediates the effects onto youth adjustment. Family functioning further mediated between PD and youth well-being and behavioral-social difficulties. Conclusions. Although results support the effects of parental-illness disability on youth and family functioning via the proposed mediational mechanisms, the additive effects of PD on youth physical and mental health occur through direct and indirect (via family functioning) pathways, respectively.

Book review : "Carbon Capture and Storage Emerging Legal and Regulatory Issues" edited by Ian Havercroft, Richard Macrory, Richard B Stewart, Oxford, Hart Publishing, 2011

As the international community struggles to find a cost-effective solution to mitigate climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, carbon capture and storage (CCS) has emerged as a project mechanism with the potential to assist in transitioning society towards its low carbon future. Being a politically attractive option, legal regimes to promote and approve CCS have proceeded at an accelerated pace in multiple jurisdictions including the European Union and Australia. This acceleration and emphasis on the swift commercial deployment of CCS projects has left the legal community in the undesirable position of having to advise on the strengths and weaknesses of the key features of these regimes once they have been passed and become operational. This is an area where environmental law principles are tested to their very limit. On the one hand, implementation of this new technology should proceed in a precautionary manner to avoid adverse impacts on the atmosphere, local community and broader environment. On the other hand, excessive regulatory restrictions will stifle innovation and act as a barrier to the swift deployment of CCS projects around the world. Finding the balance between precaution and innovation is no easy feat. This is an area where lawyers, academics, regulators and industry representatives can benefit from the sharing of collective experiences, both positive and negative, across the jurisdictions. This exemplary book appears to have been collated with this philosophy in mind and provides an insightful addition to the global dialogue on establishing effective national and international regimes for the implementation of CCS projects...