Stable oxygen isotope, UK'37, productivity, CaCO3 and XRF records from sediment core MD06-3075

Proxy records of hydrologic variability in the West Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) have revealed wide-scale changes in past convective activity in response to orbital and sub-orbital climate forcings. However, attributing proxy responses to regional changes in WPWP hydrology versus local variations in precipitation requires independent records linking the terrestrial and marine realms. We present high-resolution stable isotope, UK'37 sea-surface temperature, X-ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanning and coccolithophore-derived paleoproductivity records covering the past 120 ka from International Marine Global Change (IMAGES) Program Core MD06-3075 (6°29' N, 125°50' E, water depth 1878 m), situated in the Davao Gulf on the southern side of Mindanao. XRF-derived log(Fe/Ca) records provide a robust proxy for runoff-driven sedimentary discharge from Mindanao, whilst past changes in local productivity are associated with variable freshwater runoff and stratification of the surface layer. Significant precessional-scale variability in sedimentary discharge occurred during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5, with peaks in discharge contemporaneous with Northern Hemisphere summer insolation minima. We attribute these changes to the latitudinal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over the WPWP together with variability in the strength of the Walker circulation acting on precessional timescales. Between 60 and 15 ka sedimentary discharge at Mindanao was muted, displaying little orbital- or millennial-scale variability, likely in response to weakened precessional insolation forcing and lower sea level driving increased subsidence of air masses over the exposed Sunda Shelf. These results highlight the high degree of local variability in the precipitation response to past climate changes in the WPWP.

The interpretation of scholars' interpretations of confidence intervals: criticism, replication, and extension of Hoekstra et al. (2014)

Hoekstra et al. (Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 2014, 21:1157–1164) surveyed the interpretation of confidence intervals (CIs) by first-year students, master students, and researchers with six items expressing misinterpretations of CIs. They asked respondents to answer all items, computed the number of items endorsed, and concluded that misinterpretation of CIs is robust across groups. Their design may have produced this outcome artifactually for reasons that we describe. This paper discusses first the two interpretations of CIs and, hence, why misinterpretation cannot be inferred from endorsement of some of the items. Next, a re-analysis of Hoekstra et al.’s data reveals some puzzling differences between first-year and master students that demand further investigation. For that purpose, we designed a replication study with an extended questionnaire including two additional items that express correct interpretations of CIs (to compare endorsement of correct vs. nominally incorrect interpretations) and we asked master students to indicate which items they would have omitted had they had the option (to distinguish deliberate from uninformed endorsement caused by the forced-response format). Results showed that incognizant first-year students endorsed correct and nominally incorrect items identically, revealing that the two item types are not differentially attractive superficially; in contrast, master students were distinctively more prone to endorsing correct items when their uninformed responses were removed, although they admitted to nescience more often that might have been expected. Implications for teaching practices are discussed.

A melting pot world of species : reply to Speziale et al.

Native plants and animals are a natural heritage threatened by one of the six greatest extinction events in Earth's history. Humans, through habitat transformation, exploitation, and species introductions, are driving this extinction event. To turn this tide, Speziale et al. (2014) suggest reducing human dependence on non-native species by increasing the use, harvest, planting, and raising of native species, thereby increasing their cultural and economic value. The search for new or under-appreciated uses of native species is laudable, especially if it helps protect them and contributes to local cultural diversity. Such efforts are arguably an inherent trait of human curiosity and entrepreneurship and are a central platform of popular movements such as slow foods and native gardening. However, Speziale et al.'s hypothesis - that using native species can protect them - is less simple than they suggest. We refute the idea of nativism that underpins Speziale et al.'s proposal and makes it poorly defensible and considered the unaddressed consequences of the proposal for people and for conservation.

Comment on “Low time resolution analysis of polar ice cores cannot detect impulsive nitrate events” by D.F. Smart et al.

Smart et al. (2014) suggested that the detection of nitrate spikes in polar ice cores from solar energetic particle (SEP) events could be achieved if an analytical system with sufficiently high resolution was used. Here we show that the spikes they associate with SEP events are not reliably recorded in cores from the same location, even when the resolution is clearly adequate. We explain the processes that limit the effective resolution of ice cores. Liquid conductivity data suggest that the observed spikes are associated with sodium or another nonacidic cation, making it likely that they result from deposition of sea salt or similar aerosol that has scavenged nitrate, rather than from a primary input of nitrate in the troposphere. We consider that there is no evidence at present to support the identification of any spikes in nitrate as representing SEP events. Although such events undoubtedly create nitrate in the atmosphere, we see no plausible route to using nitrate spikes to document the statistics of such events.

Productivity- and ocean circulation changes in the sub-Antarctic Atlantic during the last deglaciation and Marine Isotope Stage 3

Millennial-scale climate changes during the last glacial period and deglaciation were accompanied by rapid changes in atmospheric CO2 that remain unexplained. While the role of the Southern Ocean as a 'control valve' on ocean-atmosphere CO2 exchange has been emphasized, the exact nature of this role, in particular the relative contributions of physical (for example, ocean dynamics and air-sea gas exchange) versus biological processes (for example, export productivity), remains poorly constrained. Here we combine reconstructions of bottom-water [O2], export production and 14C ventilation ages in the sub-Antarctic Atlantic, and show that atmospheric CO2 pulses during the last glacial- and deglacial periods were consistently accompanied by decreases in the biological export of carbon and increases in deep-ocean ventilation via southern-sourced water masses. These findings demonstrate how the Southern Ocean's 'organic carbon pump' has exerted a tight control on atmospheric CO2, and thus global climate, specifically via a synergy of both physical and biological processes.

Sedimentary n-alkanes, their hydrogen isotopes, GDGTs and d15N as well as d13Corg of lake Nam Co, Tibet

The transition from the last Glacial to the current Interglacial, the Holocene, represents an important period with climatic and environmental changes impacting ecosystems. In this study, we examined the interplay between the Indian Ocean Summer Monsoon (IOSM) and the Westerlies at lake Nam Co, southern Tibet to understand the climatic effects on the ecosystem. Different organic geochemical proxies (n-alkanes, glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers, dD, d13Corg, d15N) are applied to reconstruct the environmental and hydrological changes on one of the longest available paleorecords at the Tibetan Plateau. Based on our paleohydrological dD proxies, the aquatic signal lags the terrestrial one due to specific ecological thresholds, which, in addition to climatic changes, can influence aquatic organisms. The aquatic organisms' response strongly depends on temperature and associated lake size, as well as pH and nutrient availability. Because the terrestrial vegetation reacts faster and more sensitively to changes in the monsoonal and climatic system, the dD of n-C29 and the reconstructed inflow water signal represent an appropriate IOSM proxy. In general, the interplay of the different air masses seems to be primarily controlled by solar insolation. In the Holocene, the high insolation generates a large land-ocean pressure gradient associated with strong monsoonal winds and the strongest IOSM. In the last glacial period, however, the weak insolation promoted the Westerlies, thereby increasing their influence at the Tibetan Plateau. Our results help to elucidate the variable IOSM, and they illustrate a remarkable shift in the lake system regarding pH, d13Corg and d15N from the last glacial to the Holocene interglacial period.

The sleeper effect: Artifact or phenomenon—A brief comment on Bell et al. (2013)

OBJECTIVE: Bell, Marcus, and Goodlad (2013) recently conducted a meta-analysis of randomized controlled additive trials and found that adding an additional component to an existing treatment vis-à-vis the existing treatment produced larger effect sizes on targeted outcomes at 6-months follow-up than at termination, an effect they labeled as a sleeper effect. One of the limitations with Bell et al.'s detection of the sleeper effect was that they did not conduct a statistical test of the size of the effect at follow-up versus termination. METHOD: To statistically test if the differences of effect sizes between the additive conditions and the control conditions at follow-up differed from those at termination, we used a restricted maximum-likelihood random-effect model with known variances to conduct a multilevel longitudinal meta-analysis (k = 30). RESULTS: Although the small effects at termination detected by Bell et al. were replicated (ds = 0.17-0.23), none of the analyses of growth from termination to follow-up produced statistically significant effects (ds < 0.08; p > .20), and when asymmetry was considered using trim-and-fill procedure or the studies after 2000 were analyzed, magnitude of the sleeper effect was negligible (d = 0.00). CONCLUSION: There is no empirical evidence to support the sleeper effect.

Copepod vital rates under CO2-induced acidification: a calanoid species and a cyclopoid species under short-term exposures

Although copepods have been considered tolerant against the direct influence of the ocean acidification (OA) projected for the end of the century, some recent studies have challenged this view. Here, we have examined the direct impact of short-term exposure to a pCO2/pH level relevant for the year 2100 (pHNBS, control: 8.18, low pH: 7.78), on the physiological performance of two representative marine copepods: the calanoid Acartia grani and the cyclopoid Oithona davisae. Adults of both species, from laboratory cultures, were preconditioned for four consecutive days in algal suspensions (Akashiwo sanguinea) prepared with filtered sea water pre-adjusted to the targeted pH values via CO2 bubbling. We measured the feeding and respiratory activity and reproductive output of those pre-conditioned females. The largely unaffected fatty acid composition of the prey offered between OA treatments and controls supports the absence in the study of indirect OA effects (i.e. changes of food nutritional quality). Our results show no direct effect of acidification on the vital rates examined in either copepod species. Our findings are compared with results from previous short- and long-term manipulative experiments on other copepod species.