Multiagent system for adaptive strategy formulation in electricity markets

Electricity markets are complex environments with very particular characteristics. MASCEM is a market simulator developed to allow deep studies of the interactions between the players that take part in the electricity market negotiations. This paper presents a new proposal for the definition of MASCEM players’ strategies to negotiate in the market. The proposed methodology is multiagent based, using reinforcement learning algorithms to provide players with the capabilities to perceive the changes in the environment, while adapting their bids formulation according to their needs, using a set of different techniques that are at their disposal.

Adaptive strategy for the statistical analysis of connectomes.

We study an adaptive statistical approach to analyze brain networks represented by brain connection matrices of interregional connectivity (connectomes). Our approach is at a middle level between a global analysis and single connections analysis by considering subnetworks of the global brain network. These subnetworks represent either the inter-connectivity between two brain anatomical regions or by the intra-connectivity within the same brain anatomical region. An appropriate summary statistic, that characterizes a meaningful feature of the subnetwork, is evaluated. Based on this summary statistic, a statistical test is performed to derive the corresponding p-value. The reformulation of the problem in this way reduces the number of statistical tests in an orderly fashion based on our understanding of the problem. Considering the global testing problem, the p-values are corrected to control the rate of false discoveries. Finally, the procedure is followed by a local investigation within the significant subnetworks. We contrast this strategy with the one based on the individual measures in terms of power. We show that this strategy has a great potential, in particular in cases where the subnetworks are well defined and the summary statistics are properly chosen. As an application example, we compare structural brain connection matrices of two groups of subjects with a 22q11.2 deletion syndrome, distinguished by their IQ scores.

Maternal modulation of natal dispersal in a passerine bird: An adaptive strategy to cope with parasitism?

The decision of how far to disperse from the natal territory has profound and long-lasting consequences for young animals, yet the optimal dispersal behavior often depends on environmental factors that are difficult or impossible to assess by inexperienced juveniles. Natural selection thus favors mechanisms that allow the adaptive and flexible adjustment of the offspring's dispersal behavior by their parents via either paternal or maternal effects. Here we show that different dispersal strategies maximize the reproductive success of young great tits (Parus major) originating from a parasite-infested or a parasite-free nest and demonstrate that differential transfer of maternal yolk androgens in response to parasitism can result in a modification of the offspring's dispersal behavior that appears adaptive. It demonstrates that prenatal maternal effects are an important yet so far neglected determinant of natal dispersal and highlights the potential importance of maternal effects in mediating coevolutionary processes in host-parasite systems.

Self-adaptive strategy based on fuzzy control systems for improving performance in wireless sensors networks

The solutions to cope with new challenges that societies have to face nowadays involve providing smarter daily systems. To achieve this, technology has to evolve and leverage physical systems automatic interactions, with less human intervention. Technological paradigms like Internet of Things (IoT) and Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) are providing reference models, architectures, approaches and tools that are to support cross-domain solutions. Thus, CPS based solutions will be applied in different application domains like e-Health, Smart Grid, Smart Transportation and so on, to assure the expected response from a complex system that relies on the smooth interaction and cooperation of diverse networked physical systems. The Wireless Sensors Networks (WSN) are a well-known wireless technology that are part of large CPS. The WSN aims at monitoring a physical system, object, (e.g., the environmental condition of a cargo container), and relaying data to the targeted processing element. The WSN communication reliability, as well as a restrained energy consumption, are expected features in a WSN. This paper shows the results obtained in a real WSN deployment, based on SunSPOT nodes, which carries out a fuzzy based control strategy to improve energy consumption while keeping communication reliability and computational resources usage among boundaries.

Variable mutation rates as an adaptive strategy in replicator populations

For evolving populations of replicators, there is much evidence that the effect of mutations on fitness depends on the degree of adaptation to the selective pressures at play. In optimized populations, most mutations have deleterious effects, such that low mutation rates are favoured. In contrast to this, in populations thriving in changing environments a larger fraction of mutations have beneficial effects, providing the diversity necessary to adapt to new conditions. What is more, non-adapted populations occasionally benefit from an increase in the mutation rate. Therefore, there is no optimal universal value of the mutation rate and species attempt to adjust it to their momentary adaptive needs. In this work we have used stationary populations of RNA molecules evolving in silico to investigate the relationship between the degree of adaptation of an optimized population and the value of the mutation rate promoting maximal adaptation in a short time to a new selective pressure. Our results show that this value can significantly differ from the optimal value at mutation-selection equilibrium, being strongly influenced by the structure of the population when the adaptive process begins. In the short-term, highly optimized populations containing little variability respond better to environmental changes upon an increase of the mutation rate, whereas populations with a lower degree of optimization but higher variability benefit from reducing the mutation rate to adapt rapidly. These findings show a good agreement with the behaviour exhibited by actual organisms that replicate their genomes under broadly different mutation rates. © 2010 Stich et al.

Multi-objective adaptive evolutionary strategy for tuning compilations

Tuning compilations is the process of adjusting the values of a compiler options to improve some features of the final application. In this paper, a strategy based on the use of a genetic algorithm and a multi-objective scheme is proposed to deal with this task. Unlike previous works, we try to take advantage of the knowledge of this domain to provide a problem-specific genetic operation that improves both the speed of convergence and the quality of the results. The evaluation of the strategy is carried out by means of a case of study aimed to improve the performance of the well-known web server Apache. Experimental results show that a 7.5% of overall improvement can be achieved. Furthermore, the adaptive approach has shown an ability to markedly speed-up the convergence of the original strategy.

Improved statistical evaluation of group differences in connectomes by screening-filtering strategy with application to study maturation of brain connections between childhood and adolescence.

Detecting local differences between groups of connectomes is a great challenge in neuroimaging, because the large number of tests that have to be performed and the impact on multiplicity correction. Any available information should be exploited to increase the power of detecting true between-group effects. We present an adaptive strategy that exploits the data structure and the prior information concerning positive dependence between nodes and connections, without relying on strong assumptions. As a first step, we decompose the brain network, i.e., the connectome, into subnetworks and we apply a screening at the subnetwork level. The subnetworks are defined either according to prior knowledge or by applying a data driven algorithm. Given the results of the screening step, a filtering is performed to seek real differences at the node/connection level. The proposed strategy could be used to strongly control either the family-wise error rate or the false discovery rate. We show by means of different simulations the benefit of the proposed strategy, and we present a real application of comparing connectomes of preschool children and adolescents.

An adaptive multiscale method for density-driven instabilities

Accurate modeling of flow instabilities requires computational tools able to deal with several interacting scales, from the scale at which fingers are triggered up to the scale at which their effects need to be described. The Multiscale Finite Volume (MsFV) method offers a framework to couple fine-and coarse-scale features by solving a set of localized problems which are used both to define a coarse-scale problem and to reconstruct the fine-scale details of the flow. The MsFV method can be seen as an upscaling-downscaling technique, which is computationally more efficient than standard discretization schemes and more accurate than traditional upscaling techniques. We show that, although the method has proven accurate in modeling density-driven flow under stable conditions, the accuracy of the MsFV method deteriorates in case of unstable flow and an iterative scheme is required to control the localization error. To avoid large computational overhead due to the iterative scheme, we suggest several adaptive strategies both for flow and transport. In particular, the concentration gradient is used to identify a front region where instabilities are triggered and an accurate (iteratively improved) solution is required. Outside the front region the problem is upscaled and both flow and transport are solved only at the coarse scale. This adaptive strategy leads to very accurate solutions at roughly the same computational cost as the non-iterative MsFV method. In many circumstances, however, an accurate description of flow instabilities requires a refinement of the computational grid rather than a coarsening. For these problems, we propose a modified iterative MsFV, which can be used as downscaling method (DMsFV). Compared to other grid refinement techniques the DMsFV clearly separates the computational domain into refined and non-refined regions, which can be treated separately and matched later. This gives great flexibility to employ different physical descriptions in different regions, where different equations could be solved, offering an excellent framework to construct hybrid methods.

A comparison between PML, infinite elements and an iterative BEM as mesh truncation methods for HP self-adaptive procedures in electromagnetics

Finite element hp-adaptivity is a technology that allows for very accurate numerical solutions. When applied to open region problems such as radar cross section prediction or antenna analysis, a mesh truncation method needs to be used. This paper compares the following mesh truncation methods in the context of hp-adaptive methods: Infinite Elements, Perfectly Matched Layers and an iterative boundary element based methodology. These methods have been selected because they are exact at the continuous level (a desirable feature required by the extreme accuracy delivered by the hp-adaptive strategy) and they are easy to integrate with the logic of hp-adaptivity. The comparison is mainly based on the number of degrees of freedom needed for each method to achieve a given level of accuracy. Computational times are also included. Two-dimensional examples are used, but the conclusions directly extrapolated to the three dimensional case.

An hr-adaptive discontinuous Galerkin method for advection-diffusion problems

We propose an adaptive mesh refinement strategy based on exploiting a combination of a pre-processing mesh re-distribution algorithm employing a harmonic mapping technique, and standard (isotropic) mesh subdivision for discontinuous Galerkin approximations of advection-diffusion problems. Numerical experiments indicate that the resulting adaptive strategy can efficiently reduce the computed discretization error by clustering the nodes in the computational mesh where the analytical solution undergoes rapid variation.

Morpho-anatomical features of underground systems in six Asteraceae species from the Brazilian Cerrado

In the Brazilian Cerrado (neotropical savanna), the development of bud-bearing underground systems as adaptive structures to fire and dry periods can comprise an important source of buds for this ecosystem, as already demonstrated in the Brazilian Campos grasslands and North American prairies. Asteraceae species from both woody and herbaceous strata have subterranean organs that accumulate carbohydrates, reinforcing the adaptive strategy of these plants to different environmental conditions. This study aims to analyse the morpho-anatomy of underground systems of six species of Asteraceae (Mikania cordifolia L.f. Willd., Mikania sessilifolia DC, Trixis nobilis (Vell.) Katinas, Pterocaulon alopecuroides (Lam.) DC., Vernonia elegans Gardner and Vernonia megapotamica Spreng.), to describe these structures and to verify the occurrence and origin of shoot buds, and to analyse the presence of reserve substances. Individuals sampled in Cerrado areas in São Paulo State showed thick underground bud-bearing organs, with adventitious or lateral roots and presence of fructans. Xylopodium was found in all studied species, except for Trixis nobilis, which had stem tuber. The presence of fructans as reserve, and the capacity of structures in the formation of buds indicate the potential of herbaceous species of Asteraceae in forming a viable bud bank for vegetation regeneration in the Brazilian Cerrado.

Justified Fault-Ride-Through Requirements for Wind Turbines in Power Systems

In this paper, a novel adaptive strategy to obtain technically justified fault-ride-through requirements for wind turbines (WTs) is proposed. The main objective is to promote an effective integration of wind turbines into power systems with still low penetration levels of wind power based on technical and economical considerations. The level of requirement imposed by the strategy is increased stepwise over time, depending on system characteristics and on wind power penetration level. The idea behind is to introduce stringent requirements only when they are technically needed for a reliable and secure power system operation. Voltage stability support and fault-ride-through requirements are considered in the strategy. Simulations are based on the Chilean transmission network, a midsize isolated power system with still low penetration levels of wind power. Simulations include fixed speed induction generators and doubly fed induction generators. The effects on power system stability of the wind power injections, integrated into the network by adopting the adaptive strategy, are compared with the effects that have the same installed capacity of wind power but only considering WTs able to fulfill stringent requirements (fault-ride-through capability and support voltage stability). Based on simulations and international experience, technically justified requirements for the Chilean case are proposed.

Divorce in the barn owl: securing a compatible or better mate entails the cost of re-pairing with a less ornamented female mate.

Two nonmutually exclusive hypotheses can explain why divorce is an adaptive strategy to improve reproductive success. Under the 'better option hypothesis', only one of the two partners initiates divorce to secure a higher-quality partner and increases reproductive success after divorce. Under the 'incompatibility hypothesis', partners are incompatible and hence they may both increase reproductive success after divorce. In a long-term study of the barn owl (Tyto alba), we address the question of whether one or the two partners derive fitness benefits by divorcing. Our results support the hypothesis that divorce is adaptive: after a poor reproductive season, at least one of the two divorcees increase breeding success up to the level of faithful pairs. By breeding more often together, faithful pairs improve coordination and thereby gain in their efficiency to produce successful fledglings. Males would divorce to obtain a compatible mate rather than a mate of higher quality: a heritable melanin-based signal of female quality did not predict divorce (indicating that female absolute quality may not be the cause of divorce), but the new mate of divorced males was less melanic than their previous mate. This suggests that, at least for males, a cost of divorce may be to secure a lower-quality but compatible mate. The better option hypothesis could not be formally rejected, as only one of the two divorcing partners commonly succeeded in obtaining a higher reproductive success after divorce. In conclusion, incompatible partners divorce to restore reproductive success, and by breeding more often together, faithful partners improve coordination.

Dispersal of Triatoma infestans and other Triatominae species in the arid Chaco of Argentina: Flying, walking or passive carriage? The importance of walking females

The aim of this paper was to analyse the active dispersal of Triatoma infestans and the role of chickens as passive carriers of this insect in peridomestic areas of La Rioja, Argentina. To measure active dispersal, monthly catches were made on six consecutive nights for five months (in the warm season) using light traps (for flying insects) and sticky dispersal barriers (for walking insects). The nutritional and reproductive states of adults were evaluated. Over the course of the sampling period, a total of eight flying adults, six walking nymphs and 10 walking adults of the species T. infestans were captured, as well as specimens of Triatoma guasayana, Triatoma eratyrusiformis and Triatoma platensis. Our data demonstrate for the first time that females of T. infestans can disperse by walking. This may be an adaptive strategy because it allows them to move with eggs and/or with good blood reserves, which are not possible when flying. All flying and walking individuals of both genders were of an appropriate physiological state that would allow for colonisation of the target habitat. However, manual inspection of 122 chickens suggests that it is unlikely that these animals passively transport T. infestans. Finally, the dispersal activity of T. infestans was compared with other triatomines using a dispersion index.