Who remembers Turkey's pre-accession? CEPS Special Report No. 74/December 2012

In 2005 the EU and Turkey officially started accession negotiations that were intended to lead to Turkey’s full membership of the EU. Yet today, the Turkish accession process has virtually ground to a halt and lost all credibility. Talk of alternatives to full membership can be heard from various sides; we highlight four instances of what we call ‘parallelism’, namely the elusive concept of a ‘privileged partnership’, the EU-Turkey customs union, the recently launched ‘Positive Agenda’ and Turkish participation in the Energy Community Treaty. While a privileged partnership represents a more comprehensive but still remote framework for EU-Turkish relations, the latter three are merely an escape route from preaccession. We conclude our analysis with a discussion on Turkey’s possible membership of the European Economic Area, which in effect would serve none of the parties involved. We conclude that both partners, the EU and Turkey, would be well advised to remember their pre-accession commitments of 13 years ago – for their mutual benefit.

Too cold to handle: EU accession talks with Iceland. CEPS Commentary, 3 June 2013

Recent opinion polls suggest that most Icelanders are against joining the EU. By the same token, however, a majority of those polled are in favour of continuing accession talks. These results show that Iceland’s relationship with the EU is a deeply divisive issue within the country. Although no date for the referendum has been set, the new centre-right coalition may thus want to settle this matter as soon as possible. Should there indeed be a majority in support of continuing negotiations, then Iceland’s accession process will become a complicated and cool affair in the hands of an anti-EU membership coalition government.

The Western Balkans: deadlock in the EU enlargement process. OSW Commentary No. 43, 2010-11-24

On 9 November the European Commission presented the annual reports assessing the progress of the Balkans states in their preparations for EU membership, the enlargement strategy up to autumn 2011, and the assessment of the EU membership applications submitted by Albania and Macedonia. All these documents show that the reform process in the Balkan states has slowed down in comparison to previous years. The main reason for this slowdown is the negative consequences of the global economic crisis for these countries. Nonetheless, the transformation process is continuing, despite these difficulties. Another increasingly serious challenge for integrating the Balkan states is the EU's growing reluctance to enlarge any further. Among other measures, the EU states have blocked the formal acknowledgement of the integration progress (objections have been raised to the submission of membership applications by Albania, Serbia and Montenegro, and to granting Albania candidate status), which has significantly prolonged the accession process. In fact, this illustrates the lack of political will to accept new members. The European Commission is aware that the integration process may be blocked, and so in the coming year it is planning to focus on fostering the idea of enlargement among the EU member states. It will also focus on persuading the Balkan states to move on with reforms, especially those designed to strengthen state institutions (administration, the judiciary), even if their progress will not be formally considered during the integration process. The Commission assumes that by the end of next year, the reforms implemented by the Balkan states will be comprehensive enough to persuade the EU states to step up the integration process in subsequent years. However, if the EU member states' standpoint on the enlargement process does not change, the Commission's efforts will not bring about the expected results. Considering that their prospects for EU membership are receding, the Balkan states may not have sufficient motivation to go on with long-term reform efforts. As a result, the transformation process may become impeded, and in the longer perspective, the situation in the entire region may be destabilised.

A Constructivist perspective on EU'S democracy promotion in Turkey

The European Union, as a regional actor and an example of stability and well-being, has embraced a set of principles it has stood for and which constitute its own identity. The diffusion of these values among third countries is one of the objectives of EU’s External Policy. Democracy can be found among the principles that are sought to be exported through comprehensive and complex strategies within different frameworks, such as neighbourhood relations, trade partnerships and the accession process. Focusing on the latter, candidates are object of an intensive process of Europeanisation that operates through different mechanisms like socialisation and conditionality. Turkey, on the other side, has decided to apply for full membership several decades ago and, ever since, it has been pressured to Europeanise, which includes improving its unstable democracy. This case, however, is different from all other previous enlargements; for its special socio-cultural and civilisational features, Turkey constitutes a more complex novelty for the European Union. Therefore, this thesis aims to study the influence of the European Union on the democratisation process of Turkey, focusing on the period ranging between 1999, the year the European Council recognised Turkey’s candidacy status, and 2009 that marks the 10-year period of that condition. It is the intention of this project to assess the impact of the European Union at that level through the study of the democratic evolution of the country and its co-relation with other variables related to the presence or pressure of the EU. As this is a challenging objective, it will require a deep reflection upon central concepts like democracy and democratic consolidation, and a diversified use of methodological techniques, such as statistical analysis and mathematical co-relations, historical analysis, literature review and in-depth interviews. This study will privilege a Constructivist approach, emphasising the social construction of reality and the role of the ideational aspects – identity, perceptions and the broader socio-cultural dimension – in Turkey-EU relations.

Le processus d'adhésion à l'Union Européenne est-il en mesure de contribuer davantage que la Convention européenne à la protection des droits de l'homme en Turquie?

La Turquie va-t-elle adhérer à l'Union européenne? Sa candidature a toujours été sujette à critiques: droits de l'homme non respectés, restrictions des droits et libertés, notamment de la liberté d'expression, de religion et des droits politiques. Les dossiers sensibles comme le problème kurde et la question chypriote sont à l'origine des multiples plaintes contre l'État turc devant la Cour européenne des droits de l'homme. Dotée des caractéristiques essentielles d'un État moderne et laïque, le pays dispose de structures formellement démocratiques, mais sa démocratie se révèle fragile: ses politiques tant internes qu'externes sont décidées par un Conseil national de sécurité composé pour l'essentiel de militaires. En outre, l'armée qui a pris le pouvoir à maintes reprises a donné au régime une dimension autoritaire. Cela non seulement en vertu des principes fondateurs de la République (tradition centralisatrice de l'État turc), mais aussi de la priorité que l'institution militaire accorde à la sécurité, à l'unité et à l'identité nationales. En effet, les mesures d'exception (état d'urgence, cours de sûreté de l'État, loi anti-terroriste) ont contribué aux violations des droits de l'homme, d'où l'opposition entre le droit conventionnel et le droit national. De plus, le système judiciaire et administratif instauré par les militaires en 1982 n'est pas conçu dans l'intérêt des justiciables. Certes, l'accès à la modernité n'a pu se faire que sous la contrainte et le contrôle de l'armée, mais le régime en Turquie peut-il continuer à s'appuyer sur les«piliers de l'ordre» que sont l'armée, la police et la justice ? L’État semble cependant se réorganiser progressivement pour permettre au pouvoir politique d'assurer un contrôleur les forces de sécurité et pour donner une meilleure indépendance à la justice. Le processus mis en route et les critères imposés pour l'adhésion à l'UE devraient contribuer à mettre en œuvre les réformes institutionnelles capables d'harmoniser la démocratie à l'État de droit, à l'image des pays européens. En effet, les changements récents sont liés à l'agenda européen. Le gouvernement turc semble être déterminé et ambitieux dans sa vocation européenne. Les progrès réalisés pour intégrer l'UE lui sont un moteur de propulsion devant servir au pays et à sa population.

WTO-plus commitments on the elimination of export duties: evidence of a two-tier membership?

This descriptive paper examines the prevalence of ‘WTO-plus’ commitments in accession protocols of newly acceded Members, with a focus on commitments on the elimination of export duties. It presents preliminary results of a mapping exercise carried out with respect to these commitments and seeks to answer two questions. First, can any general conclusions be drawn as to the prevalence of these commitments or are they, per definition, country-specific. Second, has the political nature of the WTO accession process allowed for the creation of a two-tier membership. The first question is answered by relying on data gathered as part of the ongoing PhD-research project conducted by the author. The project aims to construct a typology of WTO-plus commitments to allow for a more detailed analysis of the relationship between these commitments and the baseline obligations in the covered agreements. The accession of China to the WTO is commonly considered as the prime example of the inclusion of WTO-plus obligations in accession protocols. The paper tries to answer the question whether this particular accession was truly unique in nature, or whether the inclusion of “Plus” obligations is less exceptional than often assumed. Additionally, the accession protocols of other recently acceded-Members are examined to establish whether the hypothesis holds. In the PhD-research project this comparative methodology will also be applied to map WTO-plus commitments in other areas, such as anti-dumping and transparency. The second question will be answered in two stages. In a preliminary stage, international institutional law will be used to by analyzing the way in which the WTO’s Dispute Settlement Body has dealt with this type of WTO-plus commitment in its jurisprudence. The second stage deals with the question of hierarchy: Accession Protocols are negotiated with the WTO Membership, by each country willing to accede to the WTO. This poses questions as to their exact position in the system of WTO law. To establish whether evidence of a two-tier membership is present, one first has to turn back to the question whether Accession Protocols are a separate (or independent) legal instrument or an “integral part” of the WTO system of covered agreements. If newly acceded Members do not benefit from the general exceptions in order to balance their more stringent, WTO-plus, obligations, this may support the conclusion that the membership of the World Trade Organization is becoming, in fact, two-tiered.

Deploying the energy incentive: reinforcing EU integration in South-East Europe. CEPS Policy Brief No. 296, July 2013

This Policy Brief urges the European Union to consider reinforcing the Energy Community by further Europeanising the Energy Community Treaty. It argues that the level of dysfunctionality with respect to the rule of law and corruption will make it very hard to establish a pathway for accession for most Balkan states. However, the demand across the region for a sustainable, competitive and stable energy sector creates an ‘energy incentive’ that the Union can leverage to improve the rule of law and adherence to European rules. Furthermore, a juridical strengthening of the Energy Community Treaty will also strengthen the hand of those parties supporting energy liberalisation rules across the region, such as independent businesses, consumers and NGOs. In addition, there is likely to be significant spill-over effects from decisions of a European Energy Community Court operating in the region on the rule of law in general and the accession process in particular.

EU-Turkey Relations: Turning vicious circles into virtuous ones. CEPS Policy Brief No. 317, 26 March 2014

The coming weeks and months will be decisive for the general tenor of politics in Turkey. The country faces local elections this March, presidential elections in August and general elections next June, while top-level political scandals compound the deterioration in the state of democracy and rule of law. At the same time, stagnation in Turkey’s accession process continues to sour relations with the EU. In this new Policy Brief, Steven Blockmans puts forward a number of recommendations to help drive the EU accession process forward, namely the early opening of negotiation chapters 23 (judiciary and fundamental rights) and 24 (justice, freedom and security), in line with the EU’s so-called New Approach. In that way reform could not just be assured on paper, but a track record in implementation could be established throughout the process. To achieve this, member states, and Cyprus in particular, need to be persuaded to end their opposition to formulating benchmarks for the opening of accession negotiating chapters 23 and 24.

Towards a new constitutional blueprint for Bosnia and Herzegovina. CEPS Commentary, 20 June 2014

Bosnia-Herzegovina's provisional constitutional system, as created by the Dayton Agreement, has outlived its purpose by more than ten years. Economic and political governance are now even more deadlocked by corruption, political recriminations and institutional failure. Fouéré and Blockmans argue the need for more robust engagement by both the EU and the US and for a constitutional convention to spur reform. This should facilitate the transition from the country’s current status as international protectorate to sustainable self-government, guided by the EU pre-accession process.

The sultans of swing: Turkey's stance on integration with the European Union. OSW Point of View Number 37, November 2013

Despite a rise in anti-EU rhetoric and a growing assertiveness in Ankara’s relations with Brussels, Turkey will continue to seek closer integration with the European Union in the coming years. The current stalemate in the accession process has been a source of irritation to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government. Nonetheless, a complete collapse of accession talks would be a much worse scenario for the ruling AKP party. Currently, the government is primarily interested in keeping the negotiation process alive, rather than hoping to gain full membership any time soon. Erdoğan’s government will likely seek to continue the accession talks because the AKP is acutely aware of their importance for the country’s domestic politics, for its the economy, and – although to a lesser extent – for Turkey’s international standing. The opportunity to capitalise on this process will encourage the Turkish government to avoid crises in its relations with the EU, or to at least mitigate the impact of any potential diplomatic fallouts.

EU Enlargement: external economic implications. Bruges European Economic Policy (BEEP) Briefing 4/2003

Unlike some previous EU enlargements (e.g. with the UK and with Spain/Portugal) the present EU enlargement to Central Europe has not prompted much, let alone a fierce, debate about the external dimension. This BEEP briefing discusses the main economic aspects of the external dimension, in particular whether there is a threat of (how much) trade diversion. Attention is paid to the three main topics of interest for third countries: industrial trade effects, impact on FDI and agricultural trade effects. Agriculture is arguably the most sensitive of the three, given the very high CAP border protection, and although large-scale trade diversion may eventually occur under certain scenarios (such as an unreformed CAP), these fears are greatly exaggerated in the short to medium term (5-7 years): the time frame considered is therefore all-important. This conclusion becomes less surprising if one takes a closer look at the current sorry state of agriculture in the CEECs. Separate sections treat the somewhat sensitive subject of U.S.-CEEC Bilateral Investment Treaties, as well as the longterm development perspective, which addresses the prospects for catch-up growth by the accession countries. In the end, non-European stakeholders in the accession process will greatly benefit from sustained catch-up growth by the CEECs, which are locking-in deep reforms due to EU accession.

Ending the State-Building Impasse: What Can Be Learned from Previous EU Enlargements that Might Offer Solutions for Bosnia and Herzegovina. ACES Working Paper No. 10, 2007

On the basis of the success of the two previous waves of European Union enlargement to post-communist states, EU accession is the international community's solution for ending the state-building impasse in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Through a literature review of analysis of the recent EU enlargements, this paper compares those countries' experiences with the current situation in Bosnia, and raises questions about the ability of the EU to address state-building issues through the accession process. The paper concludes that the previous enlargements do not provide a model for state-building in Bosnia. Because the EU's attempts to help along the process of state building in Bosnia is a new type of policy project, the paper proposes how the enlargement process might be adapted to address the specific problems in Bosnia, particularly in terms using human rights norms to compel Bosnian leaders to adopt necessary reforms.

Civil-Military Relations in Croatia: Politicisation and Politics of Reform.

This article argues that since 2000 successive Croatian governments have shown themselves increasingly dedicated to reforming civil-military relations. However, their efforts have been hampered by four key obstacles. First, the need to implement defence reforms in the context of an unwieldy set of civil-military relationships, political and institutional rivalries, a lack of civil and military defence expertise and a continuing legacy of politicisation. Second, the need to cut defence spending as a proportion of the overall budget whilst taking on new military roles and improving the capability of the armed forces. Third, the need to balance the demands of the NATO accession process while implementing a balanced and fundamental reform of the armed forces as a whole. Finally, the need to implement root and branch personnel reforms and downsizing in the OSRH while simultaneously recruiting and retaining quality personnel and addressing the wider social issue of unemployment.

Europeanization from below:the formation of gender equality policies in the Western Balkans

The article argues that, compared with the other countries in the Western Balkans, the Europeanization of gender equality policies in Bosnia and Herzegovina represents an interesting case of "Europeanization from below". It was not the EU, which called for the introduction of gender equality policies in the Stabilization and Association Process, but domestic policy entrepreneurs, who constructed a "shadow of membership conditionality". They framed their requests as element of the accession process tapping into the aspiration of policy-makers to joining the EU. The case illustrates that Europeanization matters in the Western Balkans, not only in terms of a direct influence of the EU but also because it provides opportunities for domestic policy entrepreneurs to further European objectives themselves.

Trajetória de pessoas com AIDS em situação de vulnerabilidade social: à luz da história oral de vida

The epidemic caused by HIV presents a global, dynamic and unstable phenomenon, which depends on the individual and collective human behavior. Efforts to deconstruct the stigmatized image caused by infection of AIDS are still often associated with adoption of socially unacceptable behavior to be a circumscribed the susceptibilities of vulnerable individuals and communities to infection, illness and death by HIV. This study aimed to: narrate the trajectory of life of people with AIDS more vulnerable enrolled in the Municipal Social Assistance Parnamirim / RN. It is a study of qualitative, exploratory and descriptive approach, taking oral history of life as technical and methodological framework. The colony consisted of 186 people with AIDS. The network was comprised of 13 employees of both sexes, aged between 19 and 62 years old with positive diagnosis and agreed to voluntarily participate. After approval by the Ethics Committee of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (CEP / UFRN), in the opinion No. 719,926 CAAE: 30408114.5.0000.5537 on 6 June 2014 data were collected from August to September 2014. The employees signed the Informed Consent and Informed and letter of assignment. Held transcribing the interviews and later returned to respondents to retest, ie so that they confer what allowed us to carry out transcreation after consecutive readings. The reports were analyzed through Bardin content analysis. Guiding the analysis of the accounts of employees, we find three themes: Prejudice and discrimination in living with AIDS; Reacting to the diagnosis and the accession process to antiretroviral treatment; and religious coping in people with AIDS. It can be concluded in this study, that employees have shown great emotional impact after positive diagnosis for HIV / AIDS, especially with regard to social life, the family ties, work and above all to the prejudice of society. Treatment with antiretroviral drugs was seen as a motivation to regain dreams and plans for a future once uncertain, and even if it is not a cure therapy, provided the employees improved quality of life.