Climate perspective on the large-scale circulation associated with the transition of the first South Atlantic hurricane

The landfall of Cyclone Catarina on the Brazilian coast in March 2004 became known as the first documented hurricane in the South Atlantic Ocean, promoting a new view oil how large-scale features can contribute to tropical transition. The aim of this paper is to put the large-scale circulation associated with Catarina`s transition in climate perspective. This is discussed in the light of a robust pattern of spatial correlations between thermodynamic and dynamic variables of importance for hurricane formation. A discussion on how transition mechanisms respond to the present-day circulation is presented. These associations help in understanding why Catarina was formed in a region previously thought to be hurricane-free. Catarina developed over a large-scale area of thermodynamically favourable air/sea temperature contrast. This aspect explains the paradox that such a rare system developed when the sea surface temperature was slightly below average. But, although thermodynamics played an important role, it is apparent that Catarina would not have formed without the key dynamic interplay triggered by a high latitude blocking. The blocking was associated with an extreme positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) both hemispherically and locally, and the nearby area where Catarina developed is found to be more cyclonic during the positive phase of the SAM. A conceptual model is developed and a `South Atlantic index` is introduced as a useful diagnostic of potential conditions leading to tropical transition in the area, where large-scale indices indicate trends towards more favourable atmospheric conditions for tropical cyclone formation. Copyright (c) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

An analysis of the environmental energetics associated with the transition of the first South Atlantic hurricane

This study presents the first analysis of the energetics associated with a hybrid cyclone`s transition in the Southern Hemisphere, Hurricane Catarina ( March 2004). Catarina has earned a place in history as the first documented South Atlantic hurricane, but its unusual tropical transition is still poorly understood. Here we show that Catarina`s transition was preceded by marked environmental changes in the Lorenz energy cycle, with an abrupt shift from a baroclinic to a predominantly barotropic state. Such changes help to explain the unusual vortex`s growth until its transition was completed. Although the vortex`s energy flux is not explicitly calculated, a likely mechanism linking the environmental energetics with Catarina is the extraction of eddy kinetic energy from horizontal momentum and heat transfers within the through component of the blocking. The results advance the understanding of this rare event and suggest that the technique has a great potential to study transitioning systems in general.

Reanalysis of the 1954-1963 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons

HURDAT is the main historical archive of all tropical storms and hurricanes in the North Atlantic Basin, which includes the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, from 1851 to the present. HURDAT is maintained and updated annually by the National Hurricane Center at Miami, Florida. Today, HURDAT is widely used by research scientists, operational hurricane forecasters, insurance companies, emergency managers and others. HURDAT contains both systematic biases and random errors. Thus, the reanalysis of HURDAT is vital. For this thesis, HURDAT is reanalyzed for the period of 1954-1963. The track and intensity of each existing tropical cyclone in HURDAT is assessed in the light of 21st century understanding and previously unrecognized tropical cyclones are detected and analyzed. The resulting changes will be recommended to the National Hurricane Center Best Track Change Committee for inclusion in HURDAT.

Impact of duration thresholds on Atlantic tropical cyclone counts*

Records of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones (TCs) since the late nineteenth century indicate a very large upward trend in storm frequency. This increase in documented TCs has been previously interpreted as resulting from anthropogenic climate change. However, improvements in observing and recording practices provide an alternative interpretation for these changes: recent studies suggest that the number of potentially missed TCs is sufficient to explain a large part of the recorded increase in TC counts. This study explores the influence of another factor—TC duration—on observed changes in TC frequency, using a widely used Atlantic hurricane database (HURDAT). It is found that the occurrence of short-lived storms (duration of 2 days or less) in the database has increased dramatically, from less than one per year in the late nineteenth–early twentieth century to about five per year since about 2000, while medium- to long-lived storms have increased little, if at all. Thus, the previously documented increase in total TC frequency since the late nineteenth century in the database is primarily due to an increase in very short-lived TCs. The authors also undertake a sampling study based upon the distribution of ship observations, which provides quantitative estimates of the frequency of missed TCs, focusing just on the moderate to long-lived systems with durations exceeding 2 days in the raw HURDAT. Upon adding the estimated numbers of missed TCs, the time series of moderate to long-lived Atlantic TCs show substantial multidecadal variability, but neither time series exhibits a significant trend since the late nineteenth century, with a nominal decrease in the adjusted time series. Thus, to understand the source of the century-scale increase in Atlantic TC counts in HURDAT, one must explain the relatively monotonic increase in very short-duration storms since the late nineteenth century. While it is possible that the recorded increase in short-duration TCs represents a real climate signal, the authors consider that it is more plausible that the increase arises primarily from improvements in the quantity and quality of observations, along with enhanced interpretation techniques. These have allowed National Hurricane Center forecasters to better monitor and detect initial TC formation, and thus incorporate increasing numbers of very short-lived systems into the TC database.

New perspectives on the synoptic and mesoscale structure of Hurricane Catarina

This work explores in detail synoptic and mesoscale features of Hurricane Catarina during its life cycle from a decaying baroclinic wave to a tropical depression that underwent tropical transition (TT) and finally to a Category 2 hurricane at landfall over Santa Catarina State coast, southern Brazil. This unique system caused 11 deaths mostly off the Brazilian coast and an estimated half billion dollars in damage in a matter of a few hours on 28 March 2004. Although the closest meteorological station available was tens of kilometres away from the eye, in situ meteorological measurements provided by a work-team sent to the area where the eye made landfall unequivocally reproduces the tropical signature with category 2 strength, adding to previous analysis where this data was not available. Further analyses are based mostly on remote sensing data available at the time of the event. A classic dipole blocking set synoptic conditions for Hurricane Catarina to develop, dynamically contributing to the low wind shear observed. On the other hand, on its westward transit, large scale subsidence limited its strength and vertical development. Catarina had relatively cool SST conditions, but this was mitigated by favourable air-sea fluxes leading to latent heat release-driven processes during the mature phase. The ocean`s dynamic topography also suggested the presence of nearby warm core rings which may have facilitated the transition and post-transition intensification. Since there were no records of such a system at least in the past 30 years and given that SSTs were generally below 26 degrees C and vertical shear was usually strong, despite all satellite data available, the system was initially classified as an extratropical cyclone. Here we hypothesise that this categorization was based oil inadequate regional scale model outputs which did not account for the importance of the latent heat fluxes over the ocean. Hurricane Catarina represents a dramatic event on weather systems in South America. It has attracted attention worldwide and poses questions as whether or not it is a symptom of global warming. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The influence of absorbed solar radiation by Saharan dust on hurricane genesis

To date, the radiative impact of dust and the Sahar an air layer (SAL) on North Atlantic hurricane activity is not yet known. According to previous studies, dust stabilizes the atmosphere due to absorption of solar radiation but thus shifts convection to regions more conducive for hurricane genesis. Here we analyze differences in hurricane genesis and frequency from ensemble sensitivity simulations with radiatively active and inactive dust in the aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM. We investigate dust burden and other hurricane-related variables and determine their influence on disturbances which develop into hurricanes (developing disturbances, DDs) and those which do not (nondeveloping disturbances, NDDs). Dust and the SAL are found to potentially have both inhibiting and supporting influences on background conditions for hurricane genesis. A slight southward shift of DDs is determined when dust is active as well as a significant warming of the SAL, which leads to a strengthening of the vertical circulation associated with the SAL. The dust burden of DDs is smaller in active dust simulations compared to DDs in simulations with inactive dust, while NDDs contain more dust in active dust simulations. However, no significant influence of radiatively active dust on other variables in DDs and NDDs is found. Furthermore, no substantial change in the DD and NDD frequency due to the radiative effects of dust can be detected.

Age determination of North Atlantic sediment cores

Available overwash records from coastal barrier systems document significant variability in North Atlantic hurricane activity during the late Holocene. The same climate forcings that may have controlled cyclone activity over this interval (e.g., the West African Monsoon, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) show abrupt changes around 6000 yrs B.P., but most coastal sedimentary records do not span this time period. Establishing longer records is essential for understanding mid-Holocene patterns of storminess and their climatic drivers, which will lead to better forecasting of how climate change over the next century may affect tropical cyclone frequency and intensity. Storms are thought to be an important mechanism for transporting coarse sediment from shallow carbonate platforms to the deep-sea, and bank-edge sediments may offer an unexplored archive of long-term hurricane activity. Here, we develop this new approach, reconstructing more than 7000 years of North Atlantic hurricane variability using coarse-grained deposits in sediment cores from the leeward margin of the Great Bahama Bank. High energy event layers within the resulting archive are (1) broadly correlated throughout an offbank transect of multi-cores, (2) closely matched with historic hurricane events, and (3) synchronous with previous intervals of heightened North Atlantic hurricane activity in overwash reconstructions from Puerto Rico and elsewhere in the Bahamas. Lower storm frequency prior to 4400 yrs B.P. in our records suggests that precession and increased NH summer insolation may have greatly limited hurricane potential intensity, outweighing weakened ENSO and a stronger West African Monsoon-factors thought to be favorable for hurricane development.

[Global climate] global aerosols [in state of the climate in 2008]

The global mean temperature in 2008 was slightly cooler than that in 2007; however, it still ranks within the 10 warmest years on record. Annual mean temperatures were generally well above average in South America, northern and southern Africa, Iceland, Europe, Russia, South Asia, and Australia. In contrast, an exceptional cold outbreak occurred during January across Eurasia and over southern European Russia and southern western Siberia. There has been a general increase in land-surface temperatures and in permafrost temperatures during the last several decades throughout the Arctic region, including increases of 1° to 2°C in the last 30 to 35 years in Russia. Record setting warm summer (JJA) air temperatures were observed throughout Greenland. The year 2008 was also characterized by heavy precipitation in a number of regions of northern South America, Africa, and South Asia. In contrast, a prolonged and intense drought occurred during most of 2008 in northern Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, and southern Brazil, causing severe impacts to agriculture and affecting many communities. The year began with a strong La Niña episode that ended in June. Eastward surface current anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean in early 2008 played a major role in adjusting the basin from strong La Niña conditions to ENSO-neutral conditions by July–August, followed by a return to La Niña conditions late in December. The La Niña conditions resulted in far-reaching anomalies such as a cooling in the central tropical Pacific, Arctic Ocean, and the regions extending from the Gulf of Alaska to the west coast of North America; changes in the sea surface salinity and heat content anomalies in the tropics; and total column water vapor, cloud cover, tropospheric temperature, and precipitation patterns typical of a La Niña. Anomalously salty ocean surface salinity values in climatologically drier locations and anomalously fresh values in rainier locations observed in recent years generally persisted in 2008, suggesting an increase in the hydrological cycle. The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season was the 14th busiest on record and the only season ever recorded with major hurricanes each month from July through November. Conversely, activity in the northwest Pacific was considerably below normal during 2008. While activity in the north Indian Ocean was only slightly above average, the season was punctuated by Cyclone Nargis, which killed over 145,000 people; in addition, it was the seventh-strongest cyclone ever in the basin and the most devastating to hit Asia since 1991. Greenhouse gas concentrations continued to rise, increasing by more than expected based on with CO2 the 1979 to 2007 trend. In the oceans, the global mean uptake for 2007 is estimated to be 1.67 Pg-C, about CO2 0.07 Pg-C lower than the long-term average, making it the third-largest anomaly determined with this method since 1983, with the largest uptake of carbon over the past decade coming from the eastern Indian Ocean. Global phytoplankton chlorophyll concentrations were slightly elevated in 2008 relative to 2007, but regional changes were substantial (ranging to about 50%) and followed long-term patterns of net decreases in chlorophyll with increasing sea surface temperature. Ozone-depleting gas concentrations continued to fall globally to about 4% below the peak levels of the 2000–02 period. Total column ozone concentrations remain well below pre-1980, levels and the 2008 ozone hole was unusually large (sixth worst on record) and persistent, with low ozone values extending into the late December period. In fact the polar vortex in 2008 persisted longer than for any previous year since 1979. Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent for the year was well below average due in large part to the record-low ice extent in March and despite the record-maximum coverage in January and the shortest snow cover duration on record (which started in 1966) in the North American Arctic. Limited preliminary data imply that in 2008 glaciers continued to lose mass, and full data for 2007 show it was the 17th consecutive year of loss. The northern region of Greenland and adjacent areas of Arctic Canada experienced a particularly intense melt season, even though there was an abnormally cold winter across Greenland's southern half. One of the most dramatic signals of the general warming trend was the continued significant reduction in the extent of the summer sea-ice cover and, importantly, the decrease in the amount of relatively older, thicker ice. The extent of the 2008 summer sea-ice cover was the second-lowest value of the satellite record (which started in 1979) and 36% below the 1979–2000 average. Significant losses in the mass of ice sheets and the area of ice shelves continued, with several fjords on the northern coast of Ellesmere Island being ice free for the first time in 3,000–5,500 years. In Antarctica, the positive phase of the SAM led to record-high total sea ice extent for much of early 2008 through enhanced equatorward Ekman transport. With colder continental temperatures at this time, the 2007–08 austral summer snowmelt season was dramatically weakened, making it the second shortest melt season since 1978 (when the record began). There was strong warming and increased precipitation along the Antarctic Peninsula and west Antarctica in 2008, and also pockets of warming along coastal east Antarctica, in concert with continued declines in sea-ice concentration in the Amundsen/Bellingshausen Seas. One significant event indicative of this warming was the disintegration and retreat of the Wilkins Ice Shelf in the southwest peninsula area of Antarctica.

The energy cycle and structural evolution of cyclones over southeastern South America in three case studies

In this paper, the Lorenz energy cycle over a limited area was applied for three cyclones with different origins and evolutions, where each of them was formed in an important cyclogenetic region near southeastern South America. The synoptic conditions and energetics were analyzed during each system`s life cycle and showed important relationships between their energy cycle and the evolution of their vertical structure. In the case of the weak baroclinic cyclone which formed on Brazil`s south-southeastern coast, the analysis showed that it originated through a midlevel cutoff low with contribution from barotropic instability. Its evolution would indicate potential transition to a hybrid system if the convective activity were stronger. The system that occurred in the La Plata River mouth had features of an oceanic bomb-type cyclogenesis and showed an important contribution from the available potential energy generation term through the latent heat release by the convection. Meanwhile, the system of the southern Argentina coast presented a classical baroclinic development of extratropical cyclogenesis in the energy cycle, from the wave amplification up to the final occlusion of the associated frontal system. These analyses revealed that the development of some cyclones that occur in eastern South America can present different mechanisms that are not related to the classical extratropical cyclogenesis.

Pb-210 and composition data of near-surface sediments and interstitial waters evidencing anthropogenic inputs in Amazon River mouth, Macapa, Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Stable isotope ratios and chemistry on corals from the Caribbean Sea

Instrumental climate data are limited in length and only available with low spatial coverage before the middle of the 20th century. This is too short to reliably determine and interpret decadal and longer scale climate variability and to understand the underlying mechanisms with sufficient accuracy. A proper knowledge of past variability of the climate system is needed to assess the anthropogenic impact on climate and ecosystems, and also important with regard to long-range climate forecasting. Highly-resolved records of past climate variations that extend beyond pre-industrial times can significantly help to understand long-term climate changes and trends. Indirect information on past environmental and climatic conditions can be deduced from climate-sensitive proxies. Large colonies of massive growing tropical reef corals have been proven to sensitively monitor changes in ambient seawater. Rapid skeletal growth, typically ranging between several millimeters to centimeters per year, allows the development of proxy records at sub-seasonal resolution. Stable oxygen isotopic composition and trace elemental ratios incorporated in the aragonitic coral skeleton can reveal a detailed history of past environmental conditions, e.g., sea surface temperature (SST). In general, coral-based reconstructions from the tropical Atlantic region have lagged behind the extensive work published using coral records from the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Difficulties in the analysis of previously utilized coral archives from the Atlantic, typically corals of the genera Montastrea and Siderastrea, have so far exacerbated the production of long-term high-resolution proxy records. The objective of this study is the evaluation of massive fast-growing corals of the species Diploria strigosa as a new marine archive for climate reconstructions from the tropical Atlantic region. For this purpose, coral records from two study sites in the eastern Caribbean Sea (Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles; and Archipelago Los Roques, Venezuela) were examined. At Guadeloupe, a century-long monthly resolved multi-proxy coral record was generated. Results present the first d18O (Sr/Ca)-SST calibration equations for the Atlantic braincoral Diploria strigosa, that are robust and consistent with previously published values using other coral species from different regions. Both proxies reflect local variability of SST on a sub-seasonal scale, which is a precondition for studying seasonally phase-locked climate variations, as well as track variability on a larger spatial scale (i.e., in the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic). Coral Sr/Ca reliably records local annual to interannual temperature variations and is higher correlated to in-situ air temperature than to grid-SST. The warming calculated from coral Sr/Ca is concurrent with the strong surface temperature increase at the study site during the past decades. Proxy data show a close relationship to major climate signals from the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic (the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)) affecting the seasonal cycle of SST in the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA). Coral oxygen isotopes are also influenced by seawater d18O (d18Osw) which is linked to the hydrological cycle, and capture large-scale climate variability in the NTA region better than Sr/Ca. Results from a quantitative comparison between extreme events in the two most prominent modes of external forcing, namely the ENSO and NAO, and respective events recorded in seasonal coral d18O imply that SST variability at the study site is highly linked to Pacific and North Atlantic variability, by this means supporting the assumptions of observational- and model-based studies which suggest a strong impact of ENSO and NAO forcings onto the NTA region through a modulation of trade wind strength in winter. Results from different spectral analysis tools suggest that interannual climate variability recorded by the coral proxies is II largely dictated by Pacific ENSO forcing, whereas at decadal and longer timescales the influence of the NAO is dominan. tThe Archipelago Los Roques is situated in the southeastern Caribbean Sea, north of the Venezuelan coast. Year-to-year variations in monthly resolved coral d18O of a nearcentury- long Diploria strigosa record are significantly correlated with SST and show pronounced multidecadal variations. About half of the variance in coral d18O can be explained by variations in seawater d18O, which can be estimated by calculating the d18Oresidual via subtracting the SST component from measured coral d18O. The d18Oresidual and a regional precipitation index are highly correlated at low frequencies, suggesting that d18Osw variations are primarily atmospheric-driven. Warmer SSTs at Los Roques broadly coincide with higher precipitation in the southeastern Caribbean at multidecadal time scales, effectively strengthening the climate signal in the coral d18O record. The Los Roques coral d18O record displays a strong and statistically significant relationship to different indices of hurricane activity during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season in boreal summer and is a particularly good indicator of decadal-multidecadal swings in the latter indices. In general, the detection of long-term changes and trends in Atlantic hurricane activity is hampered due to the limited length of the reliable instrumental record and the known inhomogeneity in the observational databases which result from changes in observing practice and technology over the years. The results suggest that coral-derived proxy data from Los Roques can be used to infer changes in past hurricane activity on timescales that extend well beyond the reliable record. In addition, the coral record exhibits a clear negative trend superimposed on the decadal to multidecadal cycles, indicating a significant warming and freshening of surface waters in the genesis region of tropical cyclones during the past decades. The presented coral d18O time series provides the first and, so far, longest continuous coral-based record of hurricane activity. It appears that the combination of both signals (SST and d18Osw) in coral d18O leads to an amplification of large-scale climate signals in the record, and makes coral d18O even a better proxy for hurricane activity than SST alone. Atlantic hurricane activity naturally exhibits strong multidecadal variations that are associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the major mode of lowfrequency variability in the North Atlantic Ocean. However, the mechanisms underlying this multidecadal variability remain controversial, primarily because of the limited instrumental record. The Los Roques coral d18O displays strong multidecadal variability with a period of approximately 60 years that is closely related to the AMO, making the Archipelago Los Roques a very sensitive location for studying low-frequency climate variability in the Atlantic Ocean. In summary, the coral records presented in this thesis capture different key climate variables in the north tropical Atlantic region very well, indicating that fast-growing Diploria strigosa corals represent a promising marine archive for further proxy-based reconstructions of past climate variability on a range of time scales.

Standardized rainfall indices for the West and Central Sahel, and the Guinea Coast

For years, various indices of seasonal West African precipitation have served as useful predictors of the overall tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Ocean. Since the mid-1990s, the correlation unexpectedly deteriorated. In the present study, statistical techniques are developed to describe the nonstationary nature of the correlations between annual measures of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and three selected West African precipitation indices (namely, western Sahelian precipitation in June-September, central Sahelian precipitation in June-September, and Guinean coastal precipitation in the preceding year's August-November period). The correlations between these parameters are found to vary over the period from 1921 to 2007 on a range of time scales. Additionally, considerable year-to-year variability in the strength of these correlations is documented by selecting subsamples of years with respect to various meteorological factors. Broadly, in years when the environment in the main development region is generally favorable for enhanced tropical cyclogenesis (e.g., when sea surface temperatures are high, when there is relatively little wind shear through the depth of the troposphere, or when the relative vorticity in the midtroposphere is anomalously high), the correlations between indices of West African monsoon precipitation and Atlantic tropical cyclone activity are considerably weaker than in years when the overall conditions in the region are less conducive. Other more remote climate parameters, such as the phase of the Southern Oscillation, are less effective at modulating the nature of these interactions.

Hurricane hindcast methodology and wave statistics for Atlantic and Gulf hurricanes from 1956-1975 /

Mode of access: Internet.

Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability

Systematic climate shifts have been linked to multidecadal variability in observed sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean1. These links are extensive, influencing a range of climate processes such as hurricane activity2 and African Sahel3, 4, 5 and Amazonian5 droughts. The variability is distinct from historical global-mean temperature changes and is commonly attributed to natural ocean oscillations6, 7, 8, 9, 10. A number of studies have provided evidence that aerosols can influence long-term changes in sea surface temperatures11, 12, but climate models have so far failed to reproduce these interactions6, 9 and the role of aerosols in decadal variability remains unclear. Here we use a state-of-the-art Earth system climate model to show that aerosol emissions and periods of volcanic activity explain 76 per cent of the simulated multidecadal variance in detrended 1860–2005 North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. After 1950, simulated variability is within observational estimates; our estimates for 1910–1940 capture twice the warming of previous generation models but do not explain the entire observed trend. Other processes, such as ocean circulation, may also have contributed to variability in the early twentieth century. Mechanistically, we find that inclusion of aerosol–cloud microphysical effects, which were included in few previous multimodel ensembles, dominates the magnitude (80 per cent) and the spatial pattern of the total surface aerosol forcing in the North Atlantic. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic aerosol emissions influenced a range of societally important historical climate events such as peaks in hurricane activity and Sahel drought. Decadal-scale model predictions of regional Atlantic climate will probably be improved by incorporating aerosol–cloud microphysical interactions and estimates of future concentrations of aerosols, emissions of which are directly addressable by policy actions.