A study on time-varying quantile and its applications

This Thesis is the result of my Master Degree studies at the Graduate School of Economics, Getúlio Vargas Foundation, from January 2004 to August 2006. am indebted to my Thesis Advisor, Professor Luiz Renato Lima, who introduced me to the Econometrics' world. In this Thesis, we study time-varying quantile process and we develop two applications, which are presented here as Part and Part II. Each of these parts was transformed in paper. Both papers were submitted. Part shows that asymmetric persistence induces ARCH effects, but the LMARCH test has power against it. On the other hand, the test for asymmetric dynamics proposed by Koenker and Xiao (2004) has correct size under the presence of ARCH errors. These results suggest that the LM-ARCH and the Koenker-Xiao tests may be used in applied research as complementary tools. In the Part II, we compare four different Value-at-Risk (VaR) methodologies through Monte Cario experiments. Our results indicate that the method based on quantile regression with ARCH effect dominates other methods that require distributional assumption. In particular, we show that the non-robust method ologies have higher probability to predict VaRs with too many violations. We illustrate our findings with an empirical exercise in which we estimate VaR for returns of São Paulo stock exchange index, IBOVESPA, during periods of market turmoil. Our results indicate that the robust method based on quantile regression presents the least number of violations.

Comparing value-at-risk methodologies

In this paper, we compare four different Value-at-Risk (V aR) methodologies through Monte Carlo experiments. Our results indicate that the method based on quantile regression with ARCH effect dominates other methods that require distributional assumption. In particular, we show that the non-robust methodologies have higher probability to predict V aRs with too many violations. We illustrate our findings with an empirical exercise in which we estimate V aR for returns of S˜ao Paulo stock exchange index, IBOVESPA, during periods of market turmoil. Our results indicate that the robust method based on quantile regression presents the least number of violations.

Early alveolar bone grafting has a negative effect on maxillary dental arch dimensions of pre-school children with complete unilateral cleft lip and palate

To evaluate maxillary dental arch dimensions in pre-school children with a complete unilateral cleft lip and palate (CUCLP) after early alveolar bone grafting.

Contribution to Theme A of the Benchmark Workshop: Effect of Concrete Swelling on the Equilibrium and Displacements of an Arch Dam

The Kariba dam is undergoing concrete expansion as a result of an alkali-aggregate reaction. The model adopted to simulate the process is explained in the paper; it is based on the model first proposed by Ulm et al, as later modified by Saouma and Perotti. It has been implemented in the commercial finite element code Abaqus and applied to solve the benchmark problem. The parameters of the model were calibrated using the data recorded up to 1995. The calibrated model was then used for predicting the evolution of the dam up to the present date. Apart from this prediction the paper offers a number of conclusions, such as the fact that the stress level appears to have a major influence on the expansion process; and it presents some suggestions to improve the formulation of the benchmark, such as providing temperature data and widening the locations and conditions of the data employed in the calibration

Effect of Concrete Swelling on the Equilibrium and Displacements of an Arch Dam

The Kariba dam is undergoing concrete expansion as a result of an alkali-aggregate reaction. The model adopted to simulate the process is explained in the paper; it is based on the model first proposed by Ulm et al, as later modified by Saouma and Perotti. It has been implemented in the commercial finite element code Abaqus and applied to solve the benchmark problem. The parameters of the model were calibrated using the data recorded up to 1995. The calibrated model was then used for predicting the evolution of the dam up to the present date. Apart from this prediction the paper offers a number of conclusions, such as the fact that the stress level appears to have a major influence on the expansion process; and it presents some suggestions to improve the formulation of the benchmark, such as providing temperature data and widening the locations and conditions of the data employed in the calibration

The effect of the aged garlic extract, 'Kyolic', on the development of experimental atherosclerosis

The aged garlic extract 'Kyolic' lowers serum cholesterol levels in humans and experimental animals and thus is presumed to have a protective effect against atherosclerosis. However, to date no studies have examined the effect of this substance on the actual development of the disease. In the present study, the right carotid artery of 24 rabbits was de-endothelialized by balloon catheterisation in order to produce a myointimal thickening. After 2 weeks the rabbits were randomly assigned to four groups: Group I received a standard diet; Group II received the standard diet supplemented with 800 mu 1/kg body weight/day 'Kyolic'; Group III received a 1% cholesterol supplemented standard diet; and Group IV received a 1% cholesterol supplemented standard diet plus 'Kyolic'. After 6 weeks, the cholesterol diet caused a 6-fold increase in serum cholesterol level (Group III; 6.4 +/- 0.6 mmol/1) compared to normal diet (Group I; 1.2 +/- 0.4 mmol/1) (P < 0.05) with only a minor, non-significant reduction seen by the addition of 'Kyolic' (Group IV; 6.2 +/- 0.7 mmol/l). Group III rabbits developed fatty streak lesions covering approximately 70 +/- 8% of the surface area of the thoracic aorta, which was significantly reduced to 25 +/- 3% in the 'Kyolic'-treated Group IV. No lesions were present in Groups I and II. The hypercholesterolaemic diet caused an increase in aortic arch cholesterol (2.1 +/- 0.1 mg cholesterol/g tissue) which was significantly reduced by 'Kyolic' supplementation (1.7 +/- 0.2 mg cholesterol/g tissue) (P < 0.05). 'Kyolic' significantly inhibited the development of thickened, lipid-filled lesions in the pre-formed neointimas produced by balloon-catheter injury of the right carotid artery in cholesterol-fed rabbits (intima as percent of artery wall, Group III 42.6 +/- 6.5% versus Group IV 23.8 +/- 2.3%, P < 0.01), but had little effect in rabbits on a standard diet (Group II 18.4 +/- 5.0% versus Group I 16.7 +/- 2.0%). In vitro studies showed that 'Kyolic' has a direct effect on inhibition of smooth muscle proliferation. In conclusion,'Kyolic' treatment reduces fatty streak development, vessel wall cholesterol accumulation and the development of fibro fatty plaques in neointimas of cholesterol-fed rabbits, thus providing protection against the onset of atherosclerosis. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd.

Effect of a 10% carbamide peroxide on wear resistance of enamel and dentine: In situ study

Objectives: This triple-blind, 2 x 2 crossover in situ study, was undertaken to verify whether the wear resistance of enamel and root dentine would be affected by bleaching with a 10% carbamide peroxide agent and a placebo agent. Methods: Thirty slabs of each. substrate (2 mm x 3 mm x 2 mm) were selected for each phase, after flattening and polishing procedures and microhardness test. After a 7-day lead-in period, one specimen of each substrate was randomly bonded on the facial surface of each one of 30 subject`s upper second premolars. The volunteers received instructions on how to perform toothbrushing and application of gel in the tray. Fifteen volunteers bleached their maxillary arch with a 10% carbamide peroxide bleaching agent for a 2-week period, while the remainders used a placebo agent. After a 1-week washout period, a new set of enamel and root dentine slabs were bonded to the premolars and volunteers were crossed over to the alternate agent for 14 days. The resistance of enamel and root dentine to wear following bleaching, toothbrushing and intraoral exposure was measured with a profilometer, using reference areas. Results: For enamel, ANOVA did not demonstrate significant difference between wear provided by placebo and bleaching agent (p = 0.3713), but higher wear depth was observed for bleached root dentine (p = 0.0346). Conclusions: While overnight bleaching caused no alteration in wear resistance of enamel, root dentine showed increased tissue loss. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estudo sobre a memória longa na volatilidade dos preços do ouro : uma abordagem com base nos modelos de tipo ARCH

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Análise Financeira

Morphology of Aortic Arch in Rabbits with Atherosclerosis Treated with Resveratrol

Objective: Atherosclerosis is a chronic inflammatory condition associated with the production of oxidative species. The phenoliccompound, resveratrol, seems to have cardioprotective activities preventing the oxidation of low-density lipoproteins.In this study we investigated the effect of resveratrol on prevention of induced atheromatosis, through the morphological study of the segment of aortic arch in White New Zealand rabbits.Study design: 20 rabbits were divided into four groups which received the following diet for 60 days: control group (CT) normal ration; resveratrol group (R) normal ration and resveratrol (3 mg/kg/day); cholesterol group (CL) 1.5% of cholesterol added to the ration; group cholesterol plus resveratrol (CR) 1.5% of cholesterol added to the ration and resveratrol (3 mg/kg/day). The analysis of the atherosclerotic lesions were performed by the means of appropriate histological techniques.Results and conclusions: The animals belonging to group CL showed atherosclerotic lesions with tunica intima thickening due to the presence of foam cells, placed in several disorganized layers, and extracellular lipid droplets in subendothelial conjunctive tissue.We also observed the invasion of foam cells in the beginning of tunica media. In animals belonging to group CR there were changes in the subendothelial of tunica intima, although in a minor degree of development as for the number of foam cells layers and extracellular lipid droplets. An invasion of foam cells in tunica media was observed in this group. We haven't seen any changes in tunica adventitia in any of the studied groups. There were not evident histological changes in any of the analised tunicas for groups CT and RConclusions: This study may help demonstrate that the phenolic compound, resveratrol, works as a preventive agent in the development of atherosclerotic lesions.

Effect of 0.4% stannous fluoride gel on Streptococci mutans in relation to elastomeric rings and steel ligatures in orthodontic patients

Background: Patients with fixed orthodontic appliances often experience an absolute increase in the number of Streptococci mutans colony-forming units (cfu). The aim of this investigation was to study the development of biofilm and S. mutans cfu in connection with stainless steel ligatures and elastomeric rings in orthodontic patients treated with and without 0.4% stannous fluoride gel (SFG). Material: Forty-seven patients were divided into 2 groups: those treated with 0.4% SFG for 4 minutes (experimental) and those without 0.4% SFG (control). In each patient, elastomeric rings were used for ligation on 1 side of the dental arch midline, and stainless steel ligatures were used on the opposite side. Saliva samples were collected before and after appliance placement. At 15 and 30 days after appliance placement, biofilm samples from the stainless steel ligatures and the elastomeric rings were collected and subjected to microbiologic procedures and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) analysis. Results: The numbers of S. mutans cfu in the saliva and biofilm were not statistically different between the teeth fitted with elastomeric rings and stainless steel ligatures, or between the experimental and control groups. SEM analysis showed biofilm formation on both ligature ties. Conclusions: Topical application of 0.4% SFG in orthodontic patients with elastomeric rings or stainless steel ligatures does not cause a significant decrease in S. mutans cfu in the saliva and biofilm. Copyright © 2005 by the American Association of Orthodontists.

Anticariogenic effect of fluoride-releasing elastomers in orthodontic patients

This in vivo experimental study evaluated the efficacy of fluoride-releasing elastomers in the control of Streptococcus mutans levels in the oral cavity. Forty orthodontic patients were recruited and divided into two groups of 20. Fluoride-releasing elastomeric ligature ties (Fluor-I-Ties, Ortho Arch Co. Inc., USA) were used in the experimental group, and conventional elastomeric ligature ties (D. Morelli, Brazil), in the control group. Two initial samples of saliva were collected at a 14-day interval to determine the number of colony forming units (CFU) of Streptococcus mutans. Immediately after collecting the second sample, fluoride-releasing elastomeric ligature ties were placed in the patients of the experimental group, and conventional ligature ties, in the patients of the control group. Seven, 14 and 28 days after placement of the elastomeric ligature ties, saliva and plaque surrounding the orthodontic appliance were collected for microbiologic analysis. There were no significant differences in the number of Streptococcus mutans CFUs in saliva or plaque in the area surrounding the fluoride-releasing or conventional elastomeric ligature ties. Thus, fluoride-releasing elastomeric ligature ties should not be indicated to reduce the incidence of enamel decalcification in orthodontic patients. Since there was no significant reduction in S. mutans in saliva or plaque, other means of prevention against enamel decalcification should be indicated for these patients.

Comparison of different designs of implant-retained overdentures and fixed full-arch implant-supported prosthesis on stress distribution in edentulous mandible - A computed tomography-based three-dimensional finite element analysis

A finite element analysis was used to compare the effect of different designs of implant-retained overdentures and fixed full-arch implant-supported prosthesis on stress distribution in edentulous mandible. Four models of an human mandible were constructed. In the OR (O'ring) group, the mandible was restored with an overdenture retained by four unsplinted implants with O'ring attachment; in the BC (bar-clip) -C and BC groups, the mandibles were restored with overdentures retained by four splinted implants with bar-clip anchor associated or not with two distally placed cantilevers, respectively; in the FD (fixed denture) group, the mandible was restored with a fixed full-arch four-implant-supported prosthesis. Models were supported by the masticatory muscles and temporomandibular joints. A 100-N oblique load was applied on the left first molar. Von Mises (σvM), maximum (σmax) and minimum (σmin) principal stresses (in MPa) analyses were obtained. BC-C group exhibited the highest stress values (σvM=398.8, σmax=580.5 and σmin=-455.2) while FD group showed the lowest one (σvM=128.9, σmax=185.9 and σmin=-172.1). Within overdenture groups, the use of unsplinted implants reduced the stress level in the implant/prosthetic components (59.4% for σvM, 66.2% for σmax and 57.7% for σmin versus BC-C group) and supporting tissues (maximum stress reduction of 72% and 79.5% for σmax, and 15.7% and 85.7% for σmin on the cortical and trabecular bones, respectively). Cortical bone exhibited greater stress concentration than the trabecular bone for all groups. The use of fixed implant dentures and removable dentures retained by unsplinted implants to rehabilitate edentulous mandible reduced the stresses in the periimplant bone tissue, mucosa and implant/prosthetic components. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Effect of simvastatin in the autonomic system is dependent on the increased gain/sensitivity of the baroreceptors

A number of mechanisms have been proposed to explain the pleiotropic effect of statin therapy to reduce sympathetic outflow in cardiovascular disease. We tested the hypothesis that statin treatment could improve baroreflex gain-sensitivity triggered by morphological adaptations in the mechanoreceptor site, thus reducing sympathetic activity, regardless of arterial pressure (AP) level reduction. Male spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHR) were divided into control (SHR, n = 8) and SHR-simvastatin (5 mg/kg/day, for 7 days) (SHR-S, n = 8). After treatment, AP, baroreflex sensitivity (BRS) in response to AP-induced changes, aortic depressor nerve activity, and spectral analyses of pulse interval (PI) and AP variabilities were performed. Internal and external carotids were prepared for morphoquantitative evaluation. Although AP was similar between groups, sympathetic modulation, represented by the low frequency band of PI (SHR: 6.84 ± 3.19 vs. SHR-S: 2.41 ± 0.96 msec2) and from systolic AP variability (SHR: 3.95 ± 0.36 vs. SHR-S: 2.86 ± 0.18 mmHg2), were reduced in treated animals. In parallel, simvastatin induced an increase of 26% and 21% in the number of elastic lamellae as well as a decrease of 9% and 25% in the carotid thickness in both, external and internal carotid, respectively. Moreover, improved baroreceptor function (SHR: 0.78 ± 0.03 vs. SHR-S: 1.06 ± 0.04% mv/mmHg) was observed in addition to a 115% increase in aortic depressor nerve activity in SHR-S rats. Therefore, our data suggest that the reduction of sympathetic outflow in hypertension by simvastatin treatment may be triggered by structural changes in the carotid arteries and increased BRS in response to an improvement of the baroreceptors discharge and consequently of the afferent pathway of the baroreflex arch.

Dental Arch Relationships following Palatoplasty for Cleft Lip and Palate Repair

Palatal scarring is assumed to be a primary cause of facial growth derangement in cleft lip and palate. Evidence supporting this hypothesis is confounded by the clinical involvement of various surgeons, and therefore definitive conclusions are not possible. In this study, we investigated the dental arch relationship in two groups, Exposed (47 children; 11.2 yrs) and Unexposed (61 children; 11.2 yrs), with a unilateral cleft lip and palate operated on by the same surgeon. The technique of hard palate repair differed between the two groups. In the Exposed group, palatal bone of the non-cleft side only was left denuded, inducing scar formation. In the Unexposed group, a vomerplasty with tight closure of the soft tissues was applied. Three raters graded the dental arch relationship and palatal morphology using the EUROCRAN Index. The dental arch relationship in the Exposed group was less favorable than in the Unexposed group (p = 0.009). Palatal morphology in both groups was comparable (p = 0.323). This study demonstrates that reduction of denuded bony areas on the palate after palatal repair with a vomer flap had a favorable effect on the dental arch relationship. For palatal morphology, no effect of the type of palatal repair was found.

Preventive effect of ozone on the development of white spot lesions during multibracket appliance therapy

OBJECTIVE: To test the null hypotheses: (1) there is no difference in the caries protective effect of ozone and Cervitec/Fluor Protector during multibracket (MB) appliance therapy, and (2) DIAGNOdent and quantitative light-induced fluorescence (QLF) are not superior to a visual evaluation of initial caries lesions. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Twenty right-handed patients with a very poor oral hygiene who required full MB appliance therapy were analyzed during 26 months. In a split-mouth-design, the four quadrants of each patient were either treated with ozone, a combination of Cervitec and Fluor Protector, or served as untreated controls. The visible plaque index (VPI) and white spot formation were analyzed clinically. DIAGNOdent and QLF were used for a quantitative assessment of white spot formation. RESULTS: The average VPI in all four dental arch quadrants amounted to 55.6% and was independent of the preventive measure undertaken. In the quadrants treated with Cervitec/Fluor Protector, only 0.7% of the areas developed new, clinically visible white spots. This was significantly (P < .05) less than in the quadrants treated with ozone (3.2%). The lesions detected with QLF only partially corresponded to the clinically detected white spots, while DIAGNOdent proved to be unable to detect any changes at all. CONCLUSIONS: The caries protective effect of Cervitec/Fluor Protector during MB therapy was superior to ozone, and a visual evaluation of initial caries lesions was superior to both DIAGNOdent and QLF.