Amazon Rainforest Exchange of Carbon and Subcanopy Air Flow: Manaus LBA Site-A Complex Terrain Condition

On the moderately complex terrain covered by dense tropical Amazon Rainforest (Reserva Biologica do Cuieiras-ZF2-02 degrees 36'17.1 '' S, 60 degrees 12'24.4 '' W), subcanopy horizontal and vertical gradients of the air temperature, CO2 concentration and wind field were measured for the dry and wet periods in 2006. We tested the hypothesis that horizontal drainage flow over this study area is significant and can affect the interpretation of the high carbon uptake rates reported by previous works at this site. A similar experimental design as the one by Tota et al. (2008) was used with a network of wind, air temperature, and CO2 sensors above and below the forest canopy. A persistent and systematic subcanopy nighttime upslope (positive buoyancy) and daytime downslope (negative buoyancy) flow pattern on a moderately inclined slope (12%) was observed. The microcirculations observed above the canopy (38 m) over the sloping area during nighttime presents a downward motion indicating vertical convergence and correspondent horizontal divergence toward the valley area. During the daytime an inverse pattern was observed. The microcirculations above the canopy were driven mainly by buoyancy balancing the pressure gradient forces. In the subcanopy space the microcirculations were also driven by the same physical mechanisms but probably with the stress forcing contribution. The results also indicated that the horizontal and vertical scalar gradients (e. g., CO2) were modulated by these micro-circulations above and below the canopy, suggesting that estimates of advection using previous experimental approaches are not appropriate due to the tridimensional nature of the vertical and horizontal transport locally. This work also indicates that carbon budget from tower-based measurement is not enough to close the system, and one needs to include horizontal and vertical advection transport of CO2 into those estimates.

(Supplement) Regeneration of Pinus sylvestris, disturbance residuals and soil properties 5 years after a mixed-severity wildfire in the inner Italian Alps

We analyzed the abundance of Scots pine regeneration in a 257 ha wildfire in an inner-alpine forest. We sampled regeneration, percent soil cover by classes, physical and chemical properties of topsoils (A horizon, 0-5 cm) under four fire severity levels (unburned, moderate, moderate/high, high severity). 5 plots per severity level, circular (R= 3m). Analysis methods for soil properties as described in the paper.

Modelling tree population dynamics at the alpine and boreal tree-line ecotones in response to climate and land-use change

Summary Ecotones are sensitive to change because they contain high numbers of species living at the margin of their environmental tolerance. This is equally true of tree-lines, which are determined by attitudinal or latitudinal temperature gradients. In the current context of climate change, they are expected to undergo modifications in position, tree biomass and possibly species composition. Attitudinal and latitudinal tree-lines differ mainly in the steepness of the underlying temperature gradient: distances are larger at latitudinal tree-lines, which could have an impact on the ability of tree species to migrate in response to climate change. Aside from temperature, tree-lines are also affected on a more local level by pressure from human activities. These are also changing as a consequence of modifications in our societies and may interact with the effects of climate change. Forest dynamics models are often used for climate change simulations because of their mechanistic processes. The spatially-explicit model TreeMig was used as a base to develop a model specifically tuned for the northern European and Alpine tree-line ecotones. For the latter, a module for land-use change processes was also added. The temperature response parameters for the species in the model were first calibrated by means of tree-ring data from various species and sites at both tree-lines. This improved the growth response function in the model, but also lead to the conclusion that regeneration is probably more important than growth for controlling tree-line position and species' distributions. The second step was to implement the module for abandonment of agricultural land in the Alps, based on an existing spatial statistical model. The sensitivity of its most important variables was tested and the model's performance compared to other modelling approaches. The probability that agricultural land would be abandoned was strongly influenced by the distance from the nearest forest and the slope, bath of which are proxies for cultivation costs. When applied to a case study area, the resulting model, named TreeMig-LAb, gave the most realistic results. These were consistent with observed consequences of land-abandonment such as the expansion of the existing forest and closing up of gaps. This new model was then applied in two case study areas, one in the Swiss Alps and one in Finnish Lapland, under a variety of climate change scenarios. These were based on forecasts of temperature change over the next century by the IPCC and the HadCM3 climate model (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 and +5.6 °C) and included a post-change stabilisation period of 300 years. The results showed radical disruptions at both tree-lines. With the most conservative climate change scenario, species' distributions simply shifted, but it took several centuries reach a new equilibrium. With the more extreme scenarios, some species disappeared from our study areas (e.g. Pinus cembra in the Alps) or dwindled to very low numbers, as they ran out of land into which they could migrate. The most striking result was the lag in the response of most species, independently from the climate change scenario or tree-line type considered. Finally, a statistical model of the effect of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) browsing on the growth of Pinus sylvestris was developed, as a first step towards implementing human impacts at the boreal tree-line. The expected effect was an indirect one, as reindeer deplete the ground lichen cover, thought to protect the trees against adverse climate conditions. The model showed a small but significant effect of browsing, but as the link with the underlying climate variables was unclear and the model was not spatial, it was not usable as such. Developing the TreeMig-LAb model allowed to: a) establish a method for deriving species' parameters for the growth equation from tree-rings, b) highlight the importance of regeneration in determining tree-line position and species' distributions and c) improve the integration of social sciences into landscape modelling. Applying the model at the Alpine and northern European tree-lines under different climate change scenarios showed that with most forecasted levels of temperature increase, tree-lines would suffer major disruptions, with shifts in distributions and potential extinction of some tree-line species. However, these responses showed strong lags, so these effects would not become apparent before decades and could take centuries to stabilise. Résumé Les écotones son sensibles au changement en raison du nombre élevé d'espèces qui y vivent à la limite de leur tolérance environnementale. Ceci s'applique également aux limites des arbres définies par les gradients de température altitudinaux et latitudinaux. Dans le contexte actuel de changement climatique, on s'attend à ce qu'elles subissent des modifications de leur position, de la biomasse des arbres et éventuellement des essences qui les composent. Les limites altitudinales et latitudinales diffèrent essentiellement au niveau de la pente des gradients de température qui les sous-tendent les distance sont plus grandes pour les limites latitudinales, ce qui pourrait avoir un impact sur la capacité des espèces à migrer en réponse au changement climatique. En sus de la température, la limite des arbres est aussi influencée à un niveau plus local par les pressions dues aux activités humaines. Celles-ci sont aussi en mutation suite aux changements dans nos sociétés et peuvent interagir avec les effets du changement climatique. Les modèles de dynamique forestière sont souvent utilisés pour simuler les effets du changement climatique, car ils sont basés sur la modélisation de processus. Le modèle spatialement explicite TreeMig a été utilisé comme base pour développer un modèle spécialement adapté pour la limite des arbres en Europe du Nord et dans les Alpes. Pour cette dernière, un module servant à simuler des changements d'utilisation du sol a également été ajouté. Tout d'abord, les paramètres de la courbe de réponse à la température pour les espèces inclues dans le modèle ont été calibrées au moyen de données dendrochronologiques pour diverses espèces et divers sites des deux écotones. Ceci a permis d'améliorer la courbe de croissance du modèle, mais a également permis de conclure que la régénération est probablement plus déterminante que la croissance en ce qui concerne la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces. La seconde étape consistait à implémenter le module d'abandon du terrain agricole dans les Alpes, basé sur un modèle statistique spatial existant. La sensibilité des variables les plus importantes du modèle a été testée et la performance de ce dernier comparée à d'autres approches de modélisation. La probabilité qu'un terrain soit abandonné était fortement influencée par la distance à la forêt la plus proche et par la pente, qui sont tous deux des substituts pour les coûts liés à la mise en culture. Lors de l'application en situation réelle, le nouveau modèle, baptisé TreeMig-LAb, a donné les résultats les plus réalistes. Ceux-ci étaient comparables aux conséquences déjà observées de l'abandon de terrains agricoles, telles que l'expansion des forêts existantes et la fermeture des clairières. Ce nouveau modèle a ensuite été mis en application dans deux zones d'étude, l'une dans les Alpes suisses et l'autre en Laponie finlandaise, avec divers scénarios de changement climatique. Ces derniers étaient basés sur les prévisions de changement de température pour le siècle prochain établies par l'IPCC et le modèle climatique HadCM3 (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 et +5.6 °C) et comprenaient une période de stabilisation post-changement climatique de 300 ans. Les résultats ont montré des perturbations majeures dans les deux types de limites de arbres. Avec le scénario de changement climatique le moins extrême, les distributions respectives des espèces ont subi un simple glissement, mais il a fallu plusieurs siècles pour qu'elles atteignent un nouvel équilibre. Avec les autres scénarios, certaines espèces ont disparu de la zone d'étude (p. ex. Pinus cembra dans les Alpes) ou ont vu leur population diminuer parce qu'il n'y avait plus assez de terrains disponibles dans lesquels elles puissent migrer. Le résultat le plus frappant a été le temps de latence dans la réponse de la plupart des espèces, indépendamment du scénario de changement climatique utilisé ou du type de limite des arbres. Finalement, un modèle statistique de l'effet de l'abroutissement par les rennes (Rangifer tarandus) sur la croissance de Pinus sylvestris a été développé, comme première étape en vue de l'implémentation des impacts humains sur la limite boréale des arbres. L'effet attendu était indirect, puisque les rennes réduisent la couverture de lichen sur le sol, dont on attend un effet protecteur contre les rigueurs climatiques. Le modèle a mis en évidence un effet modeste mais significatif, mais étant donné que le lien avec les variables climatiques sous jacentes était peu clair et que le modèle n'était pas appliqué dans l'espace, il n'était pas utilisable tel quel. Le développement du modèle TreeMig-LAb a permis : a) d'établir une méthode pour déduire les paramètres spécifiques de l'équation de croissance ä partir de données dendrochronologiques, b) de mettre en évidence l'importance de la régénération dans la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces et c) d'améliorer l'intégration des sciences sociales dans les modèles de paysage. L'application du modèle aux limites alpines et nord-européennes des arbres sous différents scénarios de changement climatique a montré qu'avec la plupart des niveaux d'augmentation de température prévus, la limite des arbres subirait des perturbations majeures, avec des glissements d'aires de répartition et l'extinction potentielle de certaines espèces. Cependant, ces réponses ont montré des temps de latence importants, si bien que ces effets ne seraient pas visibles avant des décennies et pourraient mettre plusieurs siècles à se stabiliser.

Atmospheric deposition and migration of artificial radionuclides in Alpine soils (Val Piora, Switzerland) compared to the distribution of selected major and trace elements.

Artificial radionuclides ((137)Cs, (90)Sr, Pu, and (241)Am) are present in soils because of Nuclear Weapon Tests and accidents in nuclear facilities. Their distribution in soil depth varies according to soil characteristics, their own chemical properties, and their deposition history. For this project, we studied the atmospheric deposition of (137)Cs, (90)Sr, Pu, (241)Am, (210)Pb, and stable Pb. We compared the distribution of these elements in soil profiles from different soil types from an alpine Valley (Val Piora, Switzerland) with the distribution of selected major and trace elements in the same soils. Our goals were to explain the distribution of the radioisotopes as a function of soil parameters and to identify stable elements with analogous behaviors. We found that Pu and (241)Am are relatively immobile and accumulate in the topsoil. In all soils, (90)Sr is more mobile and shows some accumulations at depth into Fe-Al rich horizons. This behavior is also observed for Cu and Zn, indicating that these elements may be used as chemical analogues for the migration of (90)Sr into the soil.

Determining Pu-241 in environmental samples: case studies in alpine soils

A procedure was developed for determining Pu-241 activity in environmental samples. This beta emitter isotope of plutonium was measured by ultra low level liquid scintillation, after several separation and purification steps that involved the use of a highly selective extraction chromatographic resin (Eichrom-TEVA). Due to the lack of reference material for Pu-241, the method was nevertheless validated using four IAEA reference sediments with information values for Pu-241. Next, the method was used to determine the Pu-241 activity in alpine soils of Switzerland and France. The Pu-241/Pu-239,Pu-240 and Pu-238/Pu-239,Pu-240 activity ratios confirmed that Pu contamination in the tested alpine soils originated mainly from global fallout from nuclear weapon tests conducted in the fifties and sixties. Estimation of the date of the contamination, using the Pu-241/Am-241 age-dating method, further confirmed this origin. However, the Pu-241/Am-241 dating method was limited to samples where Pu-Am fractionation was insignificant. If any, the contribution of the Chernobyl accident is negligible.

Origin of cadmium enrichments in carbonate rocks deposited in the Alpine Tethys area during the Middle-Late Jurassic

ABSTRACTThe pollution of air, soil and water by heavy metals through anthropogenic activities is an object of numerous environmental studies since long times. A number of natural processes, such as volcanic activity, hydrothermal fluid circulation and weathering of metal-rich deposits may lead to an additional and potentially important input and accumulation of heavy metals in the environment. In the Swiss and French Jura Mountains, anomalous high cadmium (Cd) concentrations (up to 16 ppm) in certain soils are related to the presence of underlying Cd-enriched (up to 21 ppm) carbonate rocks of Middle to Late Jurassic age. The aim of this study is to understand the processes controlling Cd incorporation into carbonate rocks of Middle and Late Jurassic age and to reconstruct the sedimentary and environmental conditions, which have led to Cd enrichments in these sedimentary rocks.Cd concentrations in studied hemipelagic sections in France vary between 0.1 and 0.5 ppm (mean 0.15 ppm). Trace-element behavior and high Mn concentrations suggest that sediment accumulation occurred in a well-oxygenated environment. Increases in Cd contents in the bulk-rock carbonate sediments may be related to increases in surface-water productivity under oxic conditions and important remineralization of organic matter within the water column. In platform settings preserved in the Swiss Jura Mountains, no correlation is observed between Cd contents and evolution of environmental conditions. Cd concentrations in these platform sections are often below the detection limit, with isolated peaks of up to 21 ppm. These important Cd enrichments are associated with peaks in Zn concentrations and are present in carbonate rocks independently of facies and age. The high Cd contents in these shallow-water carbonate rocks are partly related to the presence of disseminated, Cd-rich (up to 1.8%), sphalerite (ZnS) mineralization. The basement rocks are considered to be the source of metals for sulfide mineralization in the overlying Jurassic strata, as the sphalerite Pb isotope pattern is comparable to that of granite rocks from the nearby southern Black Forest crystalline massif. The Rb-Sr ages of sphalerite samples indicate that a main phase of sphalerite formation occurred near the boundary between the late Middle and early Late Jurassic, at around 162 Ma, as a result of enhanced tectonic and hydrothermal activity in Europe, related to the opening of the Central Atlantic and to the tectonic/thermal subsidence during spreading of the Alpine Tethys. I therefore propose to use unusually high Cd concentrations in carbonates as a tracer of tectonic activity in the Jura Mountains area, especially in the case when important enrichments in Zn co-occur. Paleoproductivity reconstructions based on records of authigenic Cd may be compromised not only by post-depositional redistribution, but also by incorporation of additional Cd from hydrothermal solutions circulating in the rock.The circulation of metal-rich hydrothermal fluids through the sediment sequence, in addition to specific environmental conditions during sedimentation, contributes to the incorporation of Cd into the carbonate rocks. However, only hydrothermal activity has led to the unusually high concentrations of Cd in carbonate rocks of Bajocian-Oxfordian age, through the formation of sphalerite mineralization.

Geospatial approach for defining the Wildland-Urban Interface in the Alpine environment

Problems related to fire hazard and fire management have become in recent decades one of the most relevant issues in the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI), that is the area where human infrastructures meet or intermingle with natural vegetation. In this paper we develop a robust geospatial method for defining and mapping the WUI in the Alpine environment, where most interactions between infrastructures and wildland vegetation concern the fire ignition through human activities, whereas no significant threats exist for infrastructures due to contact with burning vegetation. We used the three Alpine Swiss cantons of Ticino, Valais and Grisons as the study area. The features representing anthropogenic infrastructures (urban or infrastructural components of the WUI) as well as forest cover related features (wildland component of the WUI) were selected from the Swiss Topographic Landscape Model (TLM3D). Georeferenced forest fire occurrences derived from the WSL Swissfire database were used to define suitable WUI interface distances. The Random Forest algorithm was applied to estimate the importance of predictor variables to fire ignition occurrence. This revealed that buildings and drivable roads are the most relevant anthropogenic components with respect to fire ignition. We consequently defined the combination of drivable roads and easily accessible (i.e. 100 m from the next drivable road) buildings as the WUI-relevant infrastructural component. For the definition of the interface (buffer) distance between WUI infrastructural and wildland components, we computed the empirical cumulative distribution functions (ECDF) of the percentage of ignition points (observed and simulated) arising at increasing distances from the selected infrastructures. The ECDF facilitates the calculation of both the distance at which a given percentage of ignition points occurred and, in turn, the amount of forest area covered at a given distance. Finally, we developed a GIS ModelBuilder routine to map the WUI for the selected buffer distance. The approach was found to be reproducible, robust (based on statistical analyses for evaluating parameters) and flexible (buffer distances depending on the targeted final area covered) so that fire managers may use it to detect WUI according to their specific priorities.

Modern pollen samples from alpine vegetation on the Tibetan Plateau.

1  A set of 316 modern surface pollen samples, sampling all the alpine vegetation types that occur on the Tibetan Plateau, has been compiled and analysed. Between 82 and 92% of the pollen present in these samples is derived from only 28 major taxa. These 28 taxa include examples of both tree (AP) and herb (NAP) pollen types. 2  Most of the modern surface pollen samples accurately reflect the composition of the modern vegetation in the sampling region. However, airborne dust-trap pollen samples do not provide a reliable assessment of the modern vegetation. Dust-trap samples contain much higher percentages of tree pollen than non-dust-trap samples, and many of the taxa present are exotic. In the extremely windy environments of the Tibetan Plateau, contamination of dust-trap samples by long-distance transport of exotic pollen is a serious problem. 3  The most characteristic vegetation types present on the Tibetan Plateau are alpine meadows, steppe and desert. Non-arboreal pollen (NAP) therefore dominates the pollen samples in most regions. Percentages of arboreal pollen (AP) are high in samples from the southern and eastern Tibetan Plateau, where alpine forests are an important component of the vegetation. The relative importance of forest and non-forest vegetation across the Plateau clearly follows climatic gradients: forests occur on the southern and eastern margins of the Plateau, supported by the penetration of moisture-bearing airmasses associated with the Indian and Pacific summer monsoons; open, treeless vegetation is dominant in the interior and northern margins of the Plateau, far from these moisture sources. 4  The different types of non-forest vegetation are characterized by different modern pollen assemblages. Thus, alpine deserts are characterized by high percentages of Chenopodiaceae and Artemisia, with Ephedra and Nitraria. Alpine meadows are characterized by high percentages of Cyperaceae and Artemisia, with Ranunculaceae and Polygonaceae. Alpine steppe is characterized by high abundances of Artemisia, with Compositae, Cruciferae and Chenopodiaceae. Although Artemisia is a common component of all non-forest vegetation types on the Tibetan Plateau, the presence of other taxa makes it possible to discriminate between the different vegetation types. 5  The good agreement between modern vegetation and modern surface pollen samples across the Tibetan Plateau provides a measure of the reliability of using pollen data to reconstruct past vegetation patterns in non-forested areas.

Comparative phylogeography of two co-distributed arctic-alpine freshwater insect species in Europe

The distribution pattern of European arctic-alpine disjunct species is of growing interest among biogeographers due to the arising variety of inferred demographic histories. In this thesis I used the co-distributed mayfly Ameletus inopinatus and the stonefly Arcynopteryx compacta as model species to investigate the European Pleistocene and Holocene history of stream-inhabiting arctic-alpine aquatic insects. I used last glacial maximum (LGM) species distribution models (SDM) to derive hypotheses on the glacial survival during the LGM and the recolonization of Fennoscandia: 1) both species potentially survived glacial cycles in periglacial, extra Mediterranean refugia, and 2) postglacial recolonization of Fennoscandia originated from these refugia. I tested these hypotheses using mitochondrial sequence (mtCOI) and species specific microsatellite data. Additionally, I used future SDM to predict the impact of climate change induced range shifts and habitat loss on the overall genetic diversity of the endangered mayfly A. inopinatus.rnI observed old lineages, deep splits, and almost complete lineage sorting of mtCOI sequences between mountain ranges. These results support the hypothesis that both species persisted in multiple periglacial extra-Mediterranean refugia in Central Europe during the LGM. However, the recolonization of Fennoscandia was very different between the two study species. For the mayfly A. inopinatus I found strong differentiation between the Fennoscandian and all other populations in sequence and microsatellite data, indicating that Fennoscandia was recolonized from an extra European refugium. High mtCOI genetic structure within Fennoscandia supports a recolonization of multiple lineages from independent refugia. However, this structure was not apparent in the microsatellite data, consistent with secondary contact without sexual incompability. In contrast, the stonefly A. compacta exhibited low genetic structure and shared mtCOI haplotypes among Fennoscandia and the Black Forest, suggesting a shared Pleistocene refugium in the periglacial tundrabelt. Again, there is incongruence with the microsatellite data, which could be explained with ancestral polymorphism or female-biased dispersal. Future SDM projects major regional habitat loss for the mayfly A. inopinatus, particularly in Central European mountain ranges. By relating these range shifts to my population genetic results, I identified conservation units primarily in Eastern Europe, that if preserved would maintain high levels of the present-day genetic diversity of A. inopinatus and continue to provide long-term suitable habitat under future climate warming scenarios.rnIn this thesis I show that despite similar present day distributions the underlying demographic histories of the study species are vastly different, which might be due to differing dispersal capabilities and niche plasticity. I present genetic, climatic, and ecological data that can be used to prioritize conservation efforts for cold-adapted freshwater insects in light of future climate change. Overall, this thesis provides a next step in filling the knowledge gap regarding molecular studies of the arctic-alpine invertebrate fauna. However, there is continued need to explore the phenomenon of arctic-alpine disjunctions to help understand the processes of range expansion, regression, and lineage diversification in Europe’s high latitude and high altitude biota.

Changes in biodiversity and vegetation composition in the central Swiss Alps during the transition from pristine forest to first farming

Aim: We investigate the response of vegetation composition and plant diversity to increasing land clearance, burning and agriculture at the Mesolithic–Neolithic transition (c. 6400–5000 bc) when first farming was introduced. Location: The Valais, a dry alpine valley in Switzerland. Methods: We combine high-resolution pollen, microscopic charcoal and sedimentological data to reconstruct past vegetation, fire and land use. Pollen evenness, rarefaction-based and accumulation-based palynological richness analyses were used to reconstruct past trends in plant diversity. Results: Our results show that from c. 5500 cal. yr bc, slash-and-burn activities created a more open landscape for agriculture, at the expense of Pinus and Betula forests. Land clearance by slash-and-burn promoted diverse grassland ecosystems, while on the long term it reduced woodland and forest diversity, affecting important tree species such as Ulmus and Tilia. Main conclusions: Understanding the resilience of Alpine ecosystems to past disturbance variability is relevant for future nature conservation plans. Our study suggests that forecasted land abandonment in the Alps will lead to pre-Neolithic conditions, with significant biodiversity losses in abandoned grassland ecosystems. Thus, management measures for biodiversity, such as ecological compensation areas, are needed in agricultural landscapes with a millennial history of human impact, such as the non-boreal European lowlands. Our study supports the hypothesis that species coexistence is maximized at an intermediate level of disturbances. For instance, species richness decreased when fire exceeded the quasi-natural variability observed during the Mesolithic times. Under a more natural disturbance regime, rather closed Pinus sylvestris and mixed oak forests would prevail.

Importance of vegetation, topography and flow paths for water transit times of base flow in alpine headwater catchments

The mean transit time (MTT) of water in a catchment gives information about storage, flow paths, sources of water and thus also about retention and release of solutes in a catchment. To our knowledge there are only a few catchment studies on the influence of vegetation cover changes on base flow MTTs. The main changes in vegetation cover in the Swiss Alps are massive shrub encroachment and forest expansion into formerly open habitats. Four small and relatively steep headwater catchments in the Swiss Alps (Ursern Valley) were investigated to relate different vegetation cover to water transit times. Time series of water stable isotopes were used to calculate MTTs. The high temporal variation of the stable isotope signals in precipitation was strongly dampened in stream base flow samples. MTTs of the four catchments were 70 to 102 weeks. The strong dampening of the stable isotope input signal as well as stream water geochemistry points to deeper flow paths and mixing of waters of different ages at the catchments' outlets. MTTs were neither related to topographic indices nor vegetation cover. The major part of the quickly infiltrating precipitation likely percolates through fractured and partially karstified deeper rock zones, which increases the control of bedrock flow paths on MTT. Snow accumulation and the timing of its melt play an important role for stable isotope dynamics during spring and early summer. We conclude that, in mountainous headwater catchments with relatively shallow soil layers, the hydrogeological and geochemical patterns (i.e. geochemistry, porosity and hydraulic conductivity of rocks) and snow dynamics influence storage, mixing and release of water in a stronger way than vegetation cover or topography do.

A model-data comparison of Holocene timberline changes in the Swiss Alps reveals past and future drivers of mountain forest dynamics

Mountain vegetation is strongly affected by temperature and is expected to shift upwards with climate change. Dynamic vegetation models are often used to assess the impact of climate on vegetation and model output can be compared with paleobotanical data as a reality check. Recent paleoecological studies have revealed regional variation in the upward shift of timberlines in the Northern and Central European Alps in response to rapid warming at the Younger Dryas/Preboreal transition ca. 11700years ago, probably caused by a climatic gradient across the Alps. This contrasts with previous studies that successfully simulated the early Holocene afforestation in the (warmer) Central Alps with a chironomid-inferred temperature reconstruction from the (colder) Northern Alps. We use LandClim, a dynamic landscape vegetation model to simulate mountain forests under different temperature, soil and precipitation scenarios around Iffigsee (2065m a.s.l.) a lake in the Northwestern Swiss Alps, and compare the model output with the paleobotanical records. The model clearly overestimates the upward shift of timberline in a climate scenario that applies chironomid-inferred July-temperature anomalies to all months. However, forest establishment at 9800 cal. BP at Iffigsee is successfully simulated with lower moisture availability and monthly temperatures corrected for stronger seasonality during the early Holocene. The model-data comparison reveals a contraction in the realized niche of Abies alba due to the prominent role of anthropogenic disturbance after ca. 5000 cal. BP, which has important implications for species distribution models (SDMs) that rely on equilibrium with climate and niche stability. Under future climate projections, LandClim indicates a rapid upward shift of mountain vegetation belts by ca. 500m and treeline positions of ca. 2500m a.s.l. by the end of this century. Resulting biodiversity losses in the alpine vegetation belt might be mitigated with low-impact pastoralism to preserve species-rich alpine meadows.

Climate change impacts on tree species, forest properties, and ecosystem services

– Swiss forests experience strong impacts under the CH2011 scenarios, partly even for the low greenhouse gas scenario RCP3PD. Negative impacts prevail in low-elevation forests, whereas mostly positive impacts are expected in high-elevation forests. – Major changes in the distribution of the two most important tree species, Norway spruce and European beech, are expected. Growth conditions for spruce improve in a broad range of scenarios at presently cool high-elevation sites with plentiful precipitation, but in the case of strong warming (A1B and A2) spruce and beech are at risk in large parts of the Swiss Plateau. – High elevation forests that are temperature-limited will show little change in species composition but an increase in biomass. In contrast, forests at low elevations in warm-dry inner-Alpine valleys are sensitive to even moderate warming and may no longer sustain current biomass and species. – Timber production potential, carbon storage, and protection from avalanches and rockfall react differently to climate change, with an overall tendency to deteriorate at low elevations, and improve at high elevations. – Climate change will affect forests also indirectly, e.g., by increasing the risk of infestation by spruce bark beetles, which will profit from an extended flight period and will produce more generations per year.