Prediction of 30-day mortality in older patients with a first acute myocardial infarction

This study sought predictors of mortality in patients aged >or=75 years with a first ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and evaluated the validity of the GUSTO-I and TIMI risk models. Clinical variables, treatment and mortality data from 433 consecutive patients were collected. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were applied to identify baseline factors associated with 30-day mortality. Subsequently a model predicting 30-day mortality was created and compared with the performance of the GUSTO-I and TIMI models. After adjustment, a higher Killip class was the most important predictor (OR 16.1; 95% CI 5.7-45.6). Elevated heart rate, longer time delay to admission, hyperglycemia and older age were also associated with increased risk. Patients with hypercholesterolemia had a significantly lower risk (OR 0.46; 95% CI 0.24-0.86). Discrimination (c-statistic 0.79, 95% CI 0.75-0.84) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow 6, p = 0.5) of our model were good. The GUSTO-I and TIMI risk scores produced adequate discrimination within our dataset (c-statistic 0.76, 95% CI 0.71-0.81, and c-statistic 0.77, 95% CI 0.72-0.82, respectively), but calibration was not satisfactory (HL 21.8, p = 0.005 for GUSTO-I, and HL 20.6, p = 0.008 for TIMI). In conclusion, short-term mortality in elderly patients with a first STEMI depends most importantly on initial clinical and hemodynamic status. The GUSTO-I and TIMI models are insufficiently adequate for providing an exact estimate of 30-day mortality risk.

A comparison of patient characteristics and 30-day mortality outcomes after transcatheter aortic valve implantation and surgical aortic valve replacement for the treatment of aortic stenosis: a two-centre study

AIMS: It is unclear whether transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) addresses an unmet clinical need for those currently rejected for surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) and whether there is a subgroup of high-risk patients benefiting more from TAVI compared to SAVR. In this two-centre, prospective cohort study, we compared baseline characteristics and 30-day mortality between TAVI and SAVR in consecutive patients undergoing invasive treatment for aortic stenosis. METHODS AND RESULTS: We pre-specified different adjustment methods to examine the effect of TAVI as compared with SAVR on overall 30-day mortality: crude univariable logistic regression analysis, multivariable analysis adjusted for baseline characteristics, analysis adjusted for propensity scores, propensity score matched analysis, and weighted analysis using the inverse probability of treatment (IPT) as weights. A total of 1,122 patients were included in the study: 114 undergoing TAVI and 1,008 patients undergoing SAVR. The crude mortality rate was greater in the TAVI group (9.6% vs. 2.3%) yielding an odds ratio [OR] of 4.57 (95%-CI 2.17-9.65). Compared to patients undergoing SAVR, patients with TAVI were older, more likely to be in NYHA class III and IV, and had a considerably higher logistic EuroSCORE and more comorbid conditions. Adjusted OR depended on the method used to control for confounding and ranged from 0.60 (0.11-3.36) to 7.57 (0.91-63.0). We examined the distribution of propensity scores and found scores to overlap sufficiently only in a narrow range. In patients with sufficient overlap of propensity scores, adjusted OR ranged from 0.35 (0.04-2.72) to 3.17 (0.31 to 31.9). In patients with insufficient overlap, we consistently found increased odds of death associated with TAVI compared with SAVR irrespective of the method used to control confounding, with adjusted OR ranging from 5.88 (0.67-51.8) to 25.7 (0.88-750). Approximately one third of patients undergoing TAVI were found to be potentially eligible for a randomised comparison of TAVI versus SAVR. CONCLUSIONS: Both measured and unmeasured confounding limit the conclusions that can be drawn from observational comparisons of TAVI versus SAVR. Our study indicates that TAVI could be associated with either substantial benefits or harms. Randomised comparisons of TAVI versus SAVR are warranted.

Repatriations and 28-day mortality of ill and injured travellers: 12 years of experience in a Swiss emergency department

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY Many persons are travelling all over the world; the elderly with pre-existing diseases also travel to places with less developed health systems. Reportedly, fewer than 0.5% of all travellers need repatriation. We aimed to analyse and examine people who are injured or ill while abroad, where they travelled to and by what means they were repatriated. METHODS Retrospective cross-sectional study with adult patients repatriated to a single level 1 trauma centre in Switzerland (2000-2011). RESULTS A total of 372 patients were repatriated, with an increasing trend per year. Of these, 67% were male; the median age was 56 years. Forty-nine percent sustained an injury, and 13% had surgical and 38% medical pathologies. Patients with medical conditions were older than those with injuries or surgical emergencies (p <0.001). Seventy-three percent were repatriated from Europe. For repatriation from Africa trauma was slightly more frequent (53%, n = 17) than illnesses, whereas for most other countries illnesses and trauma were equally distributed. Injured patients had a median Injury Severity Score of 8. The majority of illnesses involved the nervous system (38%), mainly stroke. Forty-five percent were repatriated by Swiss Air Ambulance, 26% by ground ambulance, 18% by scheduled flights with or without medical assistance and two patients injured near the Swiss boarder by helicopter. The 28-day mortality was 4%. CONCLUSIONS The numbers of travellers repatriated increased from 2000 to 2011. About half were due to illnesses and half due to injuries. The largest group were elderly Swiss nationals repatriated from European countries. As mortality is relatively high, special consideration to this group of patients is warranted.

9 by '90 : infant mortality reduction initiative for the State of Illinois /

Cover title.

A holistic attempt to predicating excess aftermarket returns of IPOs over a 90-day period post IPO

Double Degree

Biomarkers in acute respiratory failure

Acute respiratory failure (ARF) is the most common type of organ failure leading to the need for intensive care. It is often secondary to acute lung injury (ALI) and its more severe form, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). ARF, and especially ALI and ARDS, cause increased morbidity, and mortality rates remain high (up to 40%). These disorders are characterised by inflammatory reaction and tissue damage. In some cases, inflammation continues and leads to an overwhelming repair process with ongoing fibrosis, accompanied by organ dysfunction and eventually a loss of function. Measuring the magnitude of the inflammation, and the repair process, would theoretically offer information concerning outcome. Early identification of patients whose disease process is likely to proceed unfavourably, would help clinicians to optimise their treatment. The aim of this study was to evaluate the epidemiology of ARF, its treatment, and outcome in Finland, with special interest in biomarkers, and their value in the prediction of mortality. Altogether, 958 adult patients treated with ventilatory support were prospectively included in this study during an eight week period in 2007 in 25 intensive care units. Plasma aminoterminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) was assessed in 602 patients, and plasma cell-free DNA in 580 patients, to evaluate their prognostic value in ARF. Markers of collagen metabolism were studied in longitudinal serum samples in 68 patients in order to evaluate their evolution in ARF and the association to multiple organ dysfunction (MOD). Ventilatory support was used in 39% of all ICU patients. The estimated incidence of ARF was 149.5/100 000 per year. Median tidal volumes used were higher than recommended. Overall mortality at 90 days was 31%. Plasma NT-pro-BNP and cell-free DNA were highly increased in the majority of patients. Both markers were independent predictors of 90-day mortality, but their discriminative power was at most moderate when used separately. The mortality was highest in those patients, in whom both biomarkers were over their separate cut-off values. Thus, combined use of these biomarkers may increase their clinical value in the mortality prediction. The markers of collagen metabolism changed significantly over time in surviving patients. None of these markers did associate with MOD in these patients.

Patient selection for oncology phase I trials: a multi-institutional study of prognostic factors.

PURPOSE The appropriate selection of patients for early clinical trials presents a major challenge. Previous analyses focusing on this problem were limited by small size and by interpractice heterogeneity. This study aims to define prognostic factors to guide risk-benefit assessments by using a large patient database from multiple phase I trials. PATIENTS AND METHODS Data were collected from 2,182 eligible patients treated in phase I trials between 2005 and 2007 in 14 European institutions. We derived and validated independent prognostic factors for 90-day mortality by using multivariate logistic regression analysis. Results The 90-day mortality was 16.5% with a drug-related death rate of 0.4%. Trial discontinuation within 3 weeks occurred in 14% of patients primarily because of disease progression. Eight different prognostic variables for 90-day mortality were validated: performance status (PS), albumin, lactate dehydrogenase, alkaline phosphatase, number of metastatic sites, clinical tumor growth rate, lymphocytes, and WBC. Two different models of prognostic scores for 90-day mortality were generated by using these factors, including or excluding PS; both achieved specificities of more than 85% and sensitivities of approximately 50% when using a score cutoff of 5 or higher. These models were not superior to the previously published Royal Marsden Hospital score in their ability to predict 90-day mortality. CONCLUSION Patient selection using any of these prognostic scores will reduce non-drug-related 90-day mortality among patients enrolled in phase I trials by 50%. However, this can be achieved only by an overall reduction in recruitment to phase I studies of 20%, more than half of whom would in fact have survived beyond 90 days.

Fluid balance, intradialytic hypotension, and outcomes in critically ill patients undergoing renal replacement therapy: a cohort study

Introduction: In this cohort study, we explored the relationship between fluid balance, intradialytic hypotension and outcomes in critically ill patients with acute kidney injury (AKI) who received renal replacement therapy (RRT).

Methods: We analysed prospectively collected registry data on patients older than 16 years who received RRT for at least two days in an intensive care unit at two university-affiliated hospitals. We used multivariable logistic regression to determine the relationship between mean daily fluid balance and intradialytic hypotension, both over seven days following RRT initiation, and the outcomes of hospital mortality and RRT dependence in survivors.

Results: In total, 492 patients were included (299 male (60.8%), mean (standard deviation (SD)) age 62.9 (16.3) years); 251 (51.0%) died in hospital. Independent risk factors for mortality were mean daily fluid balance (odds ratio (OR) 1.36 per 1000 mL positive (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.18 to 1.57), intradialytic hypotension (OR 1.14 per 10% increase in days with intradialytic hypotension (95% CI 1.06 to 1.23)), age (OR 1.15 per five-year increase (95% CI 1.07 to 1.25)), maximum sequential organ failure assessment score on days 1 to 7 (OR 1.21 (95% CI 1.13 to 1.29)), and Charlson comorbidity index (OR 1.28 (95% CI 1.14 to 1.44)); higher baseline creatinine (OR 0.98 per 10 mu mol/L (95% CI 0.97 to 0.996)) was associated with lower risk of death. Of 241 hospital survivors, 61 (25.3%) were RRT dependent at discharge. The only independent risk factor for RRT dependence was pre-existing heart failure (OR 3.13 (95% CI 1.46 to 6.74)). Neither mean daily fluid balance nor intradialytic hypotension was associated with RRT dependence in survivors. Associations between these exposures and mortality were similar in sensitivity analyses accounting for immortal time bias and dichotomising mean daily fluid balance as positive or negative. In the subgroup of patients with data on pre-RRT fluid balance, fluid overload at RRT initiation did not modify the association of mean daily fluid balance with mortality.

Conclusions: In this cohort of patients with AKI requiring RRT, a more positive mean daily fluid balance and intradialytic hypotension were associated with hospital mortality but not with RRT dependence at hospital discharge in survivors.

A detailed assessment of adverse perioperative outcomes of the elderly treated with radical cystectomy for bladder cancer

Objectifs: Les données provenant des centres de soins tertiaires suggèrent que le taux de mortalité péri-opératoire (MPO) après cystectomie notés pour les patients âgés (septuagénaires et octogénaires) n’excède pas celle des patients plus jeunes. Toutefois, les données provenant de la communauté démontrent un phénomène inverse. Spécifiquement, la MPO est plus élevés chez les ainés. Dans cette thèse nous allons présenter une réévaluation contemporaine du taux de MPO après cystectomie. Méthodes: Entre 1988 et 2006, 12722 cystectomies radicales pour le carcinome urothéliale de la vessie ont été enregistrées dans la banque de données SEER. Le taux de MPO a été évalué dans les analyses de régression logistique univariées et multivariées à 90 jours après cystectomie radicale. Les covariables incluaient: le sexe, l’ethnie, l’année de chirurgie, la région d’origine du patient ainsi que le grade et le stade de la tumeur. Résultats: Parmi tous les patients, 4480 étaient des septuagénaires (35.2%) et 1439 étaient des octogénaires (11.3%). Le taux de MPO à 90 jours était de 4% pour la cohorte entière vs. 2% pour les patients moins de 69 ans vs. 5.4% pour les septuagénaires vs. 9.2% pour les octogénaires. Dans les analyses de régression logistiques multivariées, les septuagénaires (OR=2.80; <0.001) et les octogénaires (OR=5.02; <0.001) avaient reçu un taux de MPO plus augmenté que les patients moins de 70 ans après une cystectomie radicale. Conclusion: Cette analyse épidémiologique basée sur les donnés le plus contemporaines démontre que l’âge avancée représente un facteur de risque pour un taux de MPO plus élevé.

Risk Factors and Survival Impact of Primary Graft Dysfunction After Lung Transplantation in a Single Institution

Background. Lung transplantation has become a standard procedure for some end-stage lung diseases, but primary graft dysfunction (PGD) is an inherent problem that impacts early and late outcomes. The aim of this study was to define the incidence, risk factors, and impact of mechanical ventilation time on mortality rates among a retrospective cohort of lung transplantations performed in a single institution. Methods. We performed a retrospective study of 118 lung transplantations performed between January 2003 and July 2010. The most severe form of PGD (grade III) as defined at 48 and 72 hours was examined for risk factors by multivariable logistic regression models using donor, recipient, and transplant variables. Results. The overall incidence of PGD at 48 hours was 19.8%, and 15.4% at 72 hours. According multivariate analysis, risk factors associated with PGD were donor smoking history for 48 hours (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 4.83; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.236-18.896; P = .022) and older donors for 72 hours (adjusted OR, 1.046; 95% CI, 0.997-1.098; P = .022). The operative mortality was 52.9% among patients with PGD versus 20.3% at 48 hours (P = .012). At 72 hours, the mortality rate was 58.3% versus 21.2% (P = .013). The 90-days mortality was also higher among patients with PGD. The mechanical ventilation time was longer in patients with PGD III at 48 hours namely, a mean time of 72 versus 24 hours (P = .001). When PGD was defined at 72 hours, the mean ventilation time was even longer, namely 151 versus 24 hours (P < .001). The mean overall survival for patients who developed PGD at 48 hours was 490.9 versus 1665.5 days for subjects without PGD (P = .001). Considering PGD only at 72 hours, the mean survival was 177.7 days for the PGD group and 1628.9 days for the other patients (P < .001). Conclusion. PGD showed an important impacts on operative and 90-day mortality rates, mechanical ventilation time, and overall survival among lung transplant patients. PGD at 72 hours was a better predictor of lung transplant outcomes than at 48 hours. The use of donors with a smoking history or of advanced age were risk factors for the development of PGD.

Restrictive deferred hydration combined with preemptive norepinephrine infusion during radical cystectomy reduces postoperative complications and hospitalization time: a randomized clinical trial.

BACKGROUND Anesthetics and neuraxial anesthesia commonly result in vasodilation/hypotension. Norepinephrine counteracts this effect and thus allows for decreased intraoperative hydration. The authors investigated whether this approach could result in reduced postoperative complication rate. METHODS In this single-center, double-blind, randomized, superiority trial, 166 patients undergoing radical cystectomy and urinary diversion were equally allocated to receive 1 ml·kg·h of balanced Ringer's solution until the end of cystectomy and then 3 ml·kg·h until the end of surgery combined with preemptive norepinephrine infusion at an initial rate of 2 µg·kg·h (low-volume group; n = 83) or 6 ml·kg·h of balanced Ringer's solution throughout surgery (control group; n = 83). Primary outcome was the in-hospital complication rate. Secondary outcomes were hospitalization time, and 90-day mortality. RESULTS In-hospital complications occurred in 43 of 83 patients (52%) in the low-volume group and in 61 of 83 (73%) in the control group (relative risk, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.55-0.88; P = 0.006). The rates of gastrointestinal and cardiac complications were lower in the low-volume group than in the control group (5 [6%] vs. 31 [37%]; relative risk, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.07-0.39; P < 0.0001 and 17 [20%] vs. 39 [48%], relative risk, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.26-0.60; P = 0.0003, respectively). The median hospitalization time was 15 days [range, 11, 27d] in the low-volume group and 17 days [11, 95d] in the control group (P = 0.02). The 90-day mortality was 0% in the low-volume group and 4.8% in the control group (P = 0.12). CONCLUSION A restrictive-deferred hydration combined with preemptive norepinephrine infusion during radical cystectomy and urinary diversion significantly reduced the postoperative complication rate and hospitalization time.

Stent-Retriever Thrombectomy after Intravenous t-PA vs. t-PA Alone in Stroke

Background Among patients with acute ischemic stroke due to occlusions in the proximal anterior intracranial circulation, less than 40% regain functional independence when treated with intravenous tissue plasminogen activator (t-PA) alone. Thrombectomy with the use of a stent retriever, in addition to intravenous t-PA, increases reperfusion rates and may improve long-term functional outcome. Methods We randomly assigned eligible patients with stroke who were receiving or had received intravenous t-PA to continue with t-PA alone (control group) or to undergo endovascular thrombectomy with the use of a stent retriever within 6 hours after symptom onset (intervention group). Patients had confirmed occlusions in the proximal anterior intracranial circulation and an absence of large ischemic-core lesions. The primary outcome was the severity of global disability at 90 days, as assessed by means of the modified Rankin scale (with scores ranging from 0 [no symptoms] to 6 [death]). Results The study was stopped early because of efficacy. At 39 centers, 196 patients underwent randomization (98 patients in each group). In the intervention group, the median time from qualifying imaging to groin puncture was 57 minutes, and the rate of substantial reperfusion at the end of the procedure was 88%. Thrombectomy with the stent retriever plus intravenous t-PA reduced disability at 90 days over the entire range of scores on the modified Rankin scale (P<0.001). The rate of functional independence (modified Rankin scale score, 0 to 2) was higher in the intervention group than in the control group (60% vs. 35%, P<0.001). There were no significant between-group differences in 90-day mortality (9% vs. 12%, P=0.50) or symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (0% vs. 3%, P=0.12). Conclusions In patients receiving intravenous t-PA for acute ischemic stroke due to occlusions in the proximal anterior intracranial circulation, thrombectomy with a stent retriever within 6 hours after onset improved functional outcomes at 90 days.

There is a place for radical cystectomy and urinary diversion, including orthotopic bladder substitution, in patients aged 75 and older: Results of a retrospective observational analysis from a high-volume center

INTRODUCTION The incidence of cancer increases with age and owing to the changing demographics we are increasingly confronted with treating bladder cancer in old patients. We report our results in patients>75 years of age who underwent open radical cystectomy (RC) and urinary diversion. MATERIAL AND METHODS From January 2000 to March 2013, a consecutive series of 224 old patients with complete follow-up who underwent RC and urinary diversion (ileal orthotopic bladder substitute [OBS], ileal conduit [IC], and ureterocutaneostomy [UCST]) were included in this retrospective single-center study. End points were the 90-day complication rates (Clavien-Dindo classification), 90-day mortality rates, overall and cancer-specific survival rates, and continence rates (OBS). RESULTS Median age was 79.2 years (range: 75.1-91.6); 35 of the 224 patients (17%) received an OBS, 178 of the 224 patients (78%) an IC, and 11 of the 224 patients (5%) an UCST. The 90-day complication rate was 54.3% in the OBS (major: Clavien grade 3-5: 22.9%, minor: Clavien Grade 1-2: 31.4%), 56.7% in the IC (major: 27%, minor: 29.8%), and 63.6% in the UCST group (major: 36.4%, minor: 27.3%); P = 0.001. The 90-day mortality was 0% in the OBS group, 13% in the IC group, and 10% in the UCST group (P = 0.077). The Glasgow prognostic score was an independent predictor of all survival parameters assessed, including 90-day mortality. Median follow-up was 22 months. Overall and cancer-specific survivals were 90 and 98, 47 and 91, and 11 and 12 months for OBS, IC, and UCST, respectively. In OBS patients, daytime continence was considered as dry in 66% and humid in 20% of patients. Nighttime continence was dry in 46% and humid 26% of patients. CONCLUSION With careful patient selection, oncological and functional outcome after RC can be good in old patients. Old age as the sole criterion should not preclude the indication for RC or the option of OBS. In old patients undergoing OBS, satisfactory continence results can be achieved.

Clinical Course of acute-on-chronic liver failure syndrome and effects on prognosis

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is characterized by acute decompensation (AD) of cirrhosis, organ failure(s), and high 28-day mortality. We investigated whether assessments of patients at specific time points predicted their need for liver transplantation (LT) or the potential futility of their care. We assessed clinical courses of 388 patients who had ACLF at enrollment, from February through September 2011, or during early (28-day) follow-up of the prospective multicenter European Chronic Liver Failure (CLIF) ACLF in Cirrhosis study. We assessed ACLF grades at different time points to define disease resolution, improvement, worsening, or steady or fluctuating course. ACLF resolved or improved in 49.2%, had a steady or fluctuating course in 30.4%, and worsened in 20.4%. The 28-day transplant-free mortality was low-to-moderate (6%-18%) in patients with nonsevere early course (final no ACLF or ACLF-1) and high-to-very high (42%-92%) in those with severe early course (final ACLF-2 or -3) independently of initial grades. Independent predictors of course severity were CLIF Consortium ACLF score (CLIF-C ACLFs) and presence of liver failure (total bilirubin ≥12 mg/dL) at ACLF diagnosis. Eighty-one percent had their final ACLF grade at 1 week, resulting in accurate prediction of short- (28-day) and mid-term (90-day) mortality by ACLF grade at 3-7 days. Among patients that underwent early LT, 75% survived for at least 1 year. Among patients with ≥4 organ failures, or CLIF-C ACLFs >64 at days 3-7 days, and did not undergo LT, mortality was 100% by 28 days. CONCLUSIONS Assessment of ACLF patients at 3-7 days of the syndrome provides a tool to define the emergency of LT and a rational basis for intensive care discontinuation owing to futility.