Potential impacts of climate change on water quality and ecology in six UK rivers

A modelling study has been undertaken to assess the likely impacts of climate change on water quality across the UK. A range of climate change scenarios have been used to generate future precipitation, evaporation and temperature time series at a range of catchments across the UK. These time series have then been used to drive the Integrated Catchment (INCA) suite of flow, water quality and ecological models to simulate flow, nitrate, ammonia, total and soluble reactive phosphorus, sediments, macrophytes and epiphytes in the Rivers Tamar, Lugg, Tame, Kennet, Tweed and Lambourn. A wide range of responses have been obtained with impacts varying depending on river character, catchment location, flow regime, type of scenario and the time into the future. Essentially upland reaches of river will respond differently to lowland reaches of river, and the responses will vary depending on the water quality parameter of interest.

Sharing and visualizing environmental data using Virtual Globes

Virtual globe technology holds many exciting possibilities for environmental science. These easy-to-use, intuitive systems provide means for simultaneously visualizing four-dimensional environmental data from many different sources, enabling the generation of new hypotheses and driving greater understanding of the Earth system. Through the use of simple markup languages, scientists can publish and consume data in interoperable formats without the need for technical assistance. In this paper we give, with examples from our own work, a number of scientific uses for virtual globes, demonstrating their particular advantages. We explain how we have used Web Services to connect virtual globes with diverse data sources and enable more sophisticated usage such as data analysis and collaborative visualization. We also discuss the current limitations of the technology, with particular regard to the visualization of subsurface data and vertical sections.

Food-chain transfer of zinc from contaminated Urtica dioica and Acer pseudoplatanus L. to Microlophium carnosum and Drepanosiphum platanoidis Schrank

This study examines the food-chain transfer of Zn from two plant species, Urtica dioica (stinging nettle) and Acer pseudoplatanus (sycamore maple), into their corresponding aphid species, Microlophium carnosum and Drepanosiphum platanoidis. The plants were grown in a hydroponic system using solutions with increasing concentrations of Zn from 0.02 to 41.9 mg Zn/l. Above-ground tissue concentrations in U. dioica and M. carnosum increased with increasing Zn exposure (p < 0.001). Zn concentrations in A. pseudoplatanus also increased with solution concentration from the control to the 9.8 mg Zn/l solution, above which concentrations remained constant. Zn concentrations in both D. platanoidis and the phloem tissue of A. pseudoplatanus were not affected by the Zn concentration in the watering solution. It appears that A. pseudoplatanus was able to limit Zn transport in the phloem, resulting in constant Zn exposure to the aphids. Zn concentrations in D. platanoidis were around three times those in M. carnosum. Concentrations of Zn in two aphid species are dependant on species and exposure.

Biological and chemical assessment of zinc ageing in field soils

As zinc (Zn) is both an essential trace element and potential toxicant, the effects of Zn fixation in soil are of practical significance. Soil samples from four field sites amended with ZnSO4 were used to investigate ageing of soluble Zn under field conditions over a 2-year period. Lability of Zn measured using 65Zn radioisotope dilution showed a significant decrease over time and hence evidence of Zn fixation in three of the four soils. However, 0.01 M CaCl2 extractions and toxicity measurements using a genetically modified lux-marked bacterial biosensor did not indicate a decrease in soluble/bioavailable Zn over time. This was attributed to the strong regulatory effect of abiotic properties such as pH on these latter measurements. These results also showed that Zn ageing occurred immediately after Zn spiking, emphasising the need to incubate freshly spiked soils before ecotoxicity assessments. Ageing effects were detected in Zn-amended field soils using 65Zn isotopic dilution as a measure of lability, but not with either CaCl2 extractions or a lux-marked bacterial biosensor.

Controlling nitrate pollution: an integrated approach

The introduction of the EU Water Framework Directive requires policy to address non-point source pollution as part of an overall integrated strategy to improve the ecological status of water bodies. In this paper, we combine an economic optimisation framework with a dynamic simulation model of N transport in the Kennet Catchment to link decisions taken at the farm level to reductions in nitrate concentrations in the River Kennet. We examine a variety of policies targeted at reducing fertiliser use and changing the way in which farm land is used. We find that a tax on nitrogen emerges as the best policy both in terms of cost- and environmental effectiveness. Such a policy involves a considerable reduction in fertiliser use, as well as, a restructuring of land-use away from arable towards increased use of set-aside. Budgetary implications of such a radical move towards set-aside would be huge and hence unlikely to be politically palatable given the objective of reducing the EU budgetary allocation to agriculture. Additionally, the current rise in world demand for food may also mitigate calls for increasing the proportion of land taken out of agricultural production. Although the study succeeds in establishing a link between actions on the farm and nitrate concentrations in the stream water, further work is required to explore the effect of the retention of nitrates in the unsaturated zone and groundwater on this link.

Uncertainty assessment of a process-based integrated catchment model of phosphorus

Despite the many models developed for phosphorus concentration prediction at differing spatial and temporal scales, there has been little effort to quantify uncertainty in their predictions. Model prediction uncertainty quantification is desirable, for informed decision-making in river-systems management. An uncertainty analysis of the process-based model, integrated catchment model of phosphorus (INCA-P), within the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework is presented. The framework is applied to the Lugg catchment (1,077 km2), a River Wye tributary, on the England–Wales border. Daily discharge and monthly phosphorus (total reactive and total), for a limited number of reaches, are used to initially assess uncertainty and sensitivity of 44 model parameters, identified as being most important for discharge and phosphorus predictions. This study demonstrates that parameter homogeneity assumptions (spatial heterogeneity is treated as land use type fractional areas) can achieve higher model fits, than a previous expertly calibrated parameter set. The model is capable of reproducing the hydrology, but a threshold Nash-Sutcliffe co-efficient of determination (E or R 2) of 0.3 is not achieved when simulating observed total phosphorus (TP) data in the upland reaches or total reactive phosphorus (TRP) in any reach. Despite this, the model reproduces the general dynamics of TP and TRP, in point source dominated lower reaches. This paper discusses why this application of INCA-P fails to find any parameter sets, which simultaneously describe all observed data acceptably. The discussion focuses on uncertainty of readily available input data, and whether such process-based models should be used when there isn’t sufficient data to support the many parameters.

Simulating metals and mine discharges in river basins using a new integrated catchment model for metals: pollution impacts and restoration strategies in the Aries-Mures river system in Transylvania, Romania

The INtegrated CAtchment (INCA) model has been developed to simulate the impact of mine discharges on river systems. The model accounts for the key kinetic chemical processes operating as well as the dilution, mixing and redistribution of pollutants in rivers downstream of mine discharges or acid rock drainage sites. The model is dynamic and simulates the day-to-day behaviour of hydrology and eight metals (cadmium, mercury, copper, zinc, lead, arsenic, manganese and chromium) as well as cyanide and ammonia. The model is semi-distributed and can simulate catchments, sub-catchment and in-stream river behaviour. The model has been applied to the Roia Montan Mine in Transylvania, Romania, and used to assess the impacts of old mine adits on the local catchments as well as on the downstream Aries and Mures river system. The question of mine restoration is investigated and a set of clean-up scenarios investigated. It is shown that the planned restoration will generate a much improved water quality from the mine and also alleviate the metal pollution of the river system.

A review of the potential impacts of climate change on surface water quality

It is now accepted that some human-induced climate change is unavoidable. Potential impacts on water supply have received much attention, but relatively little is known about the concomitant changes in water quality. Projected changes in air temperature and rainfall could affect river flows and, hence, the mobility and dilution of contaminants. Increased water temperatures will affect chemical reaction kinetics and, combined with deteriorations in quality, freshwater ecological status. With increased flows there will be changes in stream power and, hence, sediment loads with the potential to alter the morphology of rivers and the transfer of sediments to lakes, thereby impacting freshwater habitats in both lake and stream systems. This paper reviews such impacts through the lens of UK surface water quality. Widely accepted climate change scenarios suggest more frequent droughts in summer, as well as flash-flooding, leading to uncontrolled discharges from urban areas to receiving water courses and estuaries. Invasion by alien species is highly likely, as is migration of species within the UK adapting to changing temperatures and flow regimes. Lower flows, reduced velocities and, hence, higher water residence times in rivers and lakes will enhance the potential for toxic algal blooms and reduce dissolved oxygen levels. Upland streams could experience increased dissolved organic carbon and colour levels, requiring action at water treatment plants to prevent toxic by-products entering public water supplies. Storms that terminate drought periods will flush nutrients from urban and rural areas or generate acid pulses in acidified upland catchments. Policy responses to climate change, such as the growth of bio-fuels or emission controls, will further impact freshwater quality.

Using information criteria to select the correct variance–covariance structure for longitudinal data in ecology

1. Ecological data sets often use clustered measurements or use repeated sampling in a longitudinal design. Choosing the correct covariance structure is an important step in the analysis of such data, as the covariance describes the degree of similarity among the repeated observations. 2. Three methods for choosing the covariance are: the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the quasi-information criterion (QIC), and the deviance information criterion (DIC). We compared the methods using a simulation study and using a data set that explored effects of forest fragmentation on avian species richness over 15 years. 3. The overall success was 80.6% for the AIC, 29.4% for the QIC and 81.6% for the DIC. For the forest fragmentation study the AIC and DIC selected the unstructured covariance, whereas the QIC selected the simpler autoregressive covariance. Graphical diagnostics suggested that the unstructured covariance was probably correct. 4. We recommend using DIC for selecting the correct covariance structure.

Elicitator : an expert elicitation tool for regression in ecology

Expert elicitation is the process of retrieving and quantifying expert knowledge in a particular domain. Such information is of particular value when the empirical data is expensive, limited, or unreliable. This paper describes a new software tool, called Elicitator, which assists in quantifying expert knowledge in a form suitable for use as a prior model in Bayesian regression. Potential environmental domains for applying this elicitation tool include habitat modeling, assessing detectability or eradication, ecological condition assessments, risk analysis, and quantifying inputs to complex models of ecological processes. The tool has been developed to be user-friendly, extensible, and facilitate consistent and repeatable elicitation of expert knowledge across these various domains. We demonstrate its application to elicitation for logistic regression in a geographically based ecological context. The underlying statistical methodology is also novel, utilizing an indirect elicitation approach to target expert knowledge on a case-by-case basis. For several elicitation sites (or cases), experts are asked simply to quantify their estimated ecological response (e.g. probability of presence), and its range of plausible values, after inspecting (habitat) covariates via GIS.

Ecology and bioprospecting

Bioprospecting is the exploration of biodiversity for new resources of social and commercial value. It is carried out by a wide range of established industries such as pharmaceuticals, manufacturing and agriculture as well as a wide range of comparatively new ones such as aquaculture, bioremediation, biomining, biomimetic engineering and nanotechnology. The benefits of bioprospecting have emerged from such a wide range of organisms and environments worldwide that it is not possible to predict what species or habitats will be critical to society, or industry, in the future. The benefits include an unexpected variety of products that include chemicals, genes, metabolic pathways, structures, materials and behaviours. These may provide physical blueprints or inspiration for new designs. Criticism aimed at bioprospecting has been addressed, in part, by international treaties and legal agreements aimed at stopping biopiracy and many activities are now funded by agencies that require capacity-building and economic benefits in host countries. Thus, much contemporary bioprospecting has multiple goals, including the conservation of biodiversity, the sustainable management of natural resources and economic development. Ecologists are involved in three vital ways: first, applying ecological principles to the discovery of new resources. In this context, natural history becomes a vast economic database. Second, carrying out field studies, most of them demographic, to help regulate the harvest of wild species. Third, emphasizing the profound importance of millions of mostly microscopic species to the global economy.

An ecology of centre-based child care

The studies in the thesis were derived from a program of research focused on centre-based child care in Australia. The studies constituted an ecological analysis as they examined proximal and distal factors which have the potential to affect children's developmental opportunities (Bronfenbrenner, 1979). The project was conducted in thirty-two child care centres located in south-east Queensland. Participants in the research included staff members at the centres, families using the centres and their children. The first study described the personal and professional characteristics of one hundred and forty-four child care workers, as well as their job satisfaction and job commitment. Factors impinging on the stability of care afforded to children were examined, specifically child care workers' intentions to leave their current position and actual staff turnover at a twelve month follow-up. This is an ecosystem analysis (Bronfenbrenner & Crouter, 1983), as it examined the world of work for carers; a setting not directly involving the developing child, but which has implications for children's experiences. Staff job satisfaction was focused on working with children and other adults, including parents and colleagues. Involvement with children was reported as being the most rewarding aspect of the work. This intrinsic satisfaction was enough to sustain caregivers' efforts to maintain their employment in child care programs. It was found that, while improving working conditions may help to reduce turnover, it is likely that moderate turnover rates will remain as child care staff work in relatively small centres and they leave in order to improve career prospects. Departure from a child care job appeared to be as much about improving career opportunities or changing personal circumstances, as it was about poor wages and working conditions. In the second study, factors that influence maternal satisfaction with child care arrangements were examined. The focus included examination of the nature and qualities of parental interaction with staff. This was a mesosystem analysis (Bronfenbrenner & Crouter, 1983), as it considered the links between family and child care settings. Two hundred and twenty-two questionnaires were returned from mothers whose children were enrolled in the participating centres. It was found that maternal satisfaction with child care encompassed the domains of child-centred and parent-centred satisfaction. The nature and range of responses in the quantitative and qualitative data indicated that these parents were genuinely satisfied with their children's care. In the prediction of maternal satisfaction with child care, single parents, mothers with high role satisfaction, and mothers who were satisfied with the frequency of staff contact and degree of supportive communication had higher levels of satisfaction with their child care arrangements. The third study described the structural and process variations within child care programs and examined program differences for compliance with regulations and differences by profit status of the centre, as a microsystem analysis (Bronfenbrenner, 1979). Observations were made in eighty-three programs which served children from two to five years. The results of the study affirmed beliefs that nonprofit centres are superior in the quality of care provided, although this was not to a level which meant that the care in for-profit centres was inadequate. Regulation of structural features of child care programs, per se, did not guarantee higher quality child care as measured by global or process indicators. The final study represented an integration of a range of influences in child care and family settings which may impact on development. Features of child care programs which predict children's social and cognitive development, while taking into account child and family characteristics, were identified. Results were consistent with other research findings which show that child and family characteristics and child care quality predict children's development. Child care quality was more important to the prediction of social development, while family factors appeared to be more predictive of cognitive/language development. An influential variable predictive of development was the period of time which the child had been in the centre. This highlighted the importance of the stability of child care arrangements. Child care quality features which had most influence were global ratings of the qualities of the program environment. However, results need to be interpreted cautiously as the explained variance in the predictive models developed was low. The results of these studies are discussed in terms of the implications for practice and future research. Considerations for an expanded view of ecological approaches to child care research are outlined. Issues discussed include the need to generate child care research which is relevant to social policy development, the implications of market driven policies for child care services, professionalism and professionalisation of child care work, and the need to reconceptualise child care research when the goal is to develop greater theoretical understanding about child care environments and developmental processes.