Novel methods and the maximum likelihood estimation technique for estimating traffic critical gap

Most unsignalised intersection capacity calculation procedures are based on gap acceptance models. Accuracy of critical gap estimation affects accuracy of capacity and delay estimation. Several methods have been published to estimate drivers’ sample mean critical gap, the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) technique regarded as the most accurate. This study assesses three novel methods; Average Central Gap (ACG) method, Strength Weighted Central Gap method (SWCG), and Mode Central Gap method (MCG), against MLE for their fidelity in rendering true sample mean critical gaps. A Monte Carlo event based simulation model was used to draw the maximum rejected gap and accepted gap for each of a sample of 300 drivers across 32 simulation runs. Simulation mean critical gap is varied between 3s and 8s, while offered gap rate is varied between 0.05veh/s and 0.55veh/s. This study affirms that MLE provides a close to perfect fit to simulation mean critical gaps across a broad range of conditions. The MCG method also provides an almost perfect fit and has superior computational simplicity and efficiency to the MLE. The SWCG method performs robustly under high flows; however, poorly under low to moderate flows. Further research is recommended using field traffic data, under a variety of minor stream and major stream flow conditions for a variety of minor stream movement types, to compare critical gap estimates using MLE against MCG. Should the MCG method prove as robust as MLE, serious consideration should be given to its adoption to estimate critical gap parameters in guidelines.

Anomalous lifetime statistics of ligand-receptor binding in a tethered polymer system

In this paper, motivated by observations of non-exponential decay times in the stochastic binding and release of ligand-receptor systems, exemplified by the work of Rogers et al on optically trapped DNA-coated colloids (Rogers et al 2013 Soft Matter 9 6412), we explore the general problem of polymer-mediated surface adhesion using a simplified model of the phenomenon in which a single polymer molecule, fixed at one end, binds through a ligand at its opposite end to a flat surface a fixed distance L away and uniformly covered with receptor sites. Working within the Wilemski-Fixman approximation to diffusion-controlled reactions, we show that for a flexible Gaussian chain, the predicted distribution of times f(t) for which the ligand and receptor are bound is given, for times much shorter than the longest relaxation time of the polymer, by a power law of the form t(-1/4). We also show when the effects of chain stiffness are incorporated into this model (approximately), the structure of f(t) is altered to t(-1/2). These results broadly mirror the experimental trends in the work cited above.

L’hépatite auto-immune

Autoimmune hepatitis is a systemic disease, difficult to diagnose due the high variability of the clinical presentation and some non specific histological features. The recent identification of additional autoantibodies used as serological markers, as well as simplified diagnostic criteria should help the primary care physician to advance with the diagnostic process. These progresses are crucial as undiagnosed and therefore untreated autoimmune hepatitis has a poor prognosis, whereas immunosuppressive therapy leads to remission in a majority of cases.