Future contributions of crop modelling - from heuristics and supporting decision making to understanding genetic regulation and aiding crop improvement

Crop modelling has evolved over the last 30 or so years in concert with advances in crop physiology, crop ecology and computing technology. Having reached a respectable degree of acceptance, it is appropriate to review briefly the course of developments in crop modelling and to project what might be major contributions of crop modelling in the future. Two major opportunities are envisioned for increased modelling activity in the future. One opportunity is in a continuing central, heuristic role to support scientific investigation, to facilitate decision making by crop managers, and to aid in education. Heuristic activities will also extend to the broader system-level issues of environmental and ecological aspects of crop production. The second opportunity is projected as a prime contributor in understanding and advancing the genetic regulation of plant performance and plant improvement. Physiological dissection and modelling of traits provides an avenue by which crop modelling could contribute to enhancing integration of molecular genetic technologies in crop improvement. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Liveweight gains of steers at different stocking rates on monospecific Gatton panic and Estrella grass pastures in the Chaco Central region of Paraguay

A grazing trial to study the effect of stocking rate on animal production and botanical composition of Gallon panic (Panicum maximum) and Estrella grass (Cynodon nlemfuensis) was conducted in the central region of the Paraguayan Chaco between 1992 and 1998. The experiment included 6 stocking rates (0.5, 0.8. 1.1, 1.4. 1.7 and 2.0 AU/ha) on individual 4-ha paddocks. The pasture treatments were continuously grazed by yearling steers. replaced annually, over a 4-year grazing period. No fertiliser was used. Botanical composition was recorded annually in autumn from 1992 to 1998 while animal production data were recorded monthly from 1992 to 1996. Relationships between animal productivity and stocking rates were determined by regression analysis. Gallon panic produced greater liveweight gains per head than Estrella grass at low and intermediate stocking rates. However, the slope of the linear relationship between liveweight gain per head and stocking rate increased each year in Gallon panic indicating that the productivity of this grass progressively declined at higher stocking rates over the period of observation. Estrella grass showed less sensitivity to stocking rate but was affected severely by periods of low rainfall.

International Grassland Congress Outlook: An historical review and future expectations

Features of the history of the International Grassland Congress are mentioned. Aspects of a number of failed themes in grassland science are described with respect to molecular biology, intensive systems of ruminant production, carbohydrate use in plant growth, plant succession and range condition, and stocking method. Future expectations are focused on meeting a balance of objectives, maintaining reductionist science, taking new initiatives in plant improvement and in the development of animal production systems, and reducing barriers to international trade. The adoption of grassland science depends upon the growth of new learning, especially through cyclical interaction between scientists and farmers.

Factors affecting cane yield and commercial cane sugar in the Tully district

The Tully Sugar Mill has collected information about sugarcane supplied for crushing from every block in the mill district from 1970 to 1999. Data from 1988 to 1999 were analysed to understand the extent of the variation in cane yield per hectare and commercial cane sugar in the Tully mill area. The key factors influencing the variation in cane yield and commercial cane sugar in this commercial environment were identified and the variance components computed using a restricted maximum likelihood methodology. Cane yield was predominantly influenced by the year in which it was harvested, the month when the crop was ratooned (month of harvest in the previous year) and the farm of origin. These variables were relatively more important than variety, age of crop or crop class (plant crop, first ratoon through to fourth or older ratoons) and fallowing practice (fallow or ploughout-replant). The month-of-ratooning effect was relatively stable from year-to-year. Commercial cane sugar was influenced by the year of harvest, the month of harvest and their interaction, in that the influence of the month of harvest varied from year to year. Variety and farm differences were also significant but accounted for a much lower portion of the variation in commercial cane sugar. An empirical model was constructed from the key factors that influenced commercial cane sugar and cane yield to quantify their combined influence on sugar yield (t/ha). This may be used to assist mill personnel to predict their activities more accurately, for example to calculate the impact of a late finish to the current harvest season on the following year's crop.

Development of a generic crop model template in the cropping system model APSIM

The Agricultural Production Systems slMulator, APSIM, is a cropping system modelling environment that simulates the dynamics of soil-plant-management interactions within a single crop or a cropping system. Adaptation of previously developed crop models has resulted in multiple crop modules in APSIM, which have low scientific transparency and code efficiency. A generic crop model template (GCROP) has been developed to capture unifying physiological principles across crops (plant types) and to provide modular and efficient code for crop modelling. It comprises a standard crop interface to the APSIM engine, a generic crop model structure, a crop process library, and well-structured crop parameter files. The process library contains the major science underpinning the crop models and incorporates generic routines based on physiological principles for growth and development processes that are common across crops. It allows APSIM to simulate different crops using the same set of computer code. The generic model structure and parameter files provide an easy way to test, modify, exchange and compare modelling approaches at process level without necessitating changes in the code. The standard interface generalises the model inputs and outputs, and utilises a standard protocol to communicate with other APSIM modules through the APSIM engine. The crop template serves as a convenient means to test new insights and compare approaches to component modelling, while maintaining a focus on predictive capability. This paper describes and discusses the scientific basis, the design, implementation and future development of the crop template in APSIM. On this basis, we argue that the combination of good software engineering with sound crop science can enhance the rate of advance in crop modelling. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Linking physiological and architectural models of cotton

Despite the strong influence of plant architecture on crop yield, most crop models either ignore it or deal with it in a very rudimentary way. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of linking a model that simulates the morphogenesis and resultant architecture of individual cotton plants with a crop model that simulates the effects of environmental factors on critical physiological processes and resulting yield in cotton. First the varietal parameters of the models were made concordant. Then routines were developed to allocate the flower buds produced each day by the crop model amongst the potential positions generated by the architectural model. This allocation is done according to a set of heuristic rules. The final weight of individual bolls and the shedding of buds and fruit caused by water, N, and C stresses are processed in a similar manner. Observations of the positions of harvestable fruits, both within and between plants, made under a variety of agronomic conditions that had resulted in a broad range of plant architectures were compared to those predicted by the model with the same environmental inputs. As illustrated by comparisons of plant maps, the linked models performed reasonably well, though performance of the fruiting point allocation and shedding algorithms could probably be improved by further analysis of the spatial relationships of retained fruit. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of nitrogen supply on leaf appearance, leaf growth, leaf nitrogen economy and photosynthetic capacity in maize (Zea mays L.)

Leaf area growth and nitrogen concentration per unit leaf area, N-a (g m(-2) N) are two options plants can use to adapt to nitrogen limitation. Previous work indicated that potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) adapts the size of leaves to maintain Na and photosynthetic capacity per unit leaf area. This paper reports on the effect of N limitation on leaf area production and photosynthetic capacity in maize, a C4 cereal. Maize was grown in two experiments in pots in glasshouses with three (0.84-6.0 g N pot(-1)) and five rates (0.5-6.0 g pot(-1)) of N. Leaf tip and ligule appearance were monitored and final individual leaf area was determined. Changes with leaf age in leaf area, leaf N content and light-saturated photosynthetic capacity, P a,, were measured on two leaves per plant in each experiment. The final area of the largest leaf and total plant leaf area differed by 16 and 29% from the lowest to highest N supply, but leaf appearance rate and the duration of leaf expansion were unaffected. The N concentration of expanding leaves (N-a or %N in dry matter) differed by at least a factor 2 from the lowest to highest N supply. A hyperbolic function described the relation between P-max and N-a. The results confirm the 'maize strategy': leaf N content, photosynthetic capacity, and ultimately radiation use efficiency is more sensitive to nitrogen limitation than are leaf area expansion and light interception. The generality of the findings is discussed and it is suggested that at canopy level species showing the 'potato strategy' can be recognized from little effect of nitrogen supply on radiation use efficiency, while the reverse is true for species showing the 'maize strategy' for adaptation to N limitation. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing moth migration and population structuring in Helicoverpa annigera (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae) at the regional scale: Example from the Darling Downs, Australia

Analysis of gene flow and migration of Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner) in a major cropping region of Australia identified substantial genetic structuring, migration events, and significant population genotype changes over the 38-mo sample period from November 1999 to January 2003. Five highly variable microsatellite markers were used to analyze 916 individuals from 77 collections across 10 localities in the Darling Downs. The molecular data indicate that in some years (e.g., April 2002-March 2003), low levels of H. armigera migration and high differentiation between populations occurred, whereas in other years (e.g., April 2001-March 2002), there were higher levels of adult moth movement resulting in little local structuring of populations. Analysis of populations in other Australian cropping regions provided insight into the quantity and direction of immigration of H. armigera adults into the Darling Downs growing region of Australia. These data provide evidence adult moth movement differs from season to season, highlighting the importance of studies in groups such as the Lepidoptera extending over consecutive years, because short-term sampling may be misleading when population dynamics and migration change so significantly. This research demonstrates the importance of maintaining a coordinated insecticide resistance management strategy, because in some years H. armigera populations may be independent within a region and thus significantly influenced by local management practices; however, periods with high migration will occur and resistance may rapidly spread.