Does Chance hide Necessity? : a reevaluation of the debate ‘determinism - indeterminism’ in the light of quantum mechanics and probability theory

Dans cette thèse l’ancienne question philosophique “tout événement a-t-il une cause ?” sera examinée à la lumière de la mécanique quantique et de la théorie des probabilités. Aussi bien en physique qu’en philosophie des sciences la position orthodoxe maintient que le monde physique est indéterministe. Au niveau fondamental de la réalité physique – au niveau quantique – les événements se passeraient sans causes, mais par chance, par hasard ‘irréductible’. Le théorème physique le plus précis qui mène à cette conclusion est le théorème de Bell. Ici les prémisses de ce théorème seront réexaminées. Il sera rappelé que d’autres solutions au théorème que l’indéterminisme sont envisageables, dont certaines sont connues mais négligées, comme le ‘superdéterminisme’. Mais il sera argué que d’autres solutions compatibles avec le déterminisme existent, notamment en étudiant des systèmes physiques modèles. Une des conclusions générales de cette thèse est que l’interprétation du théorème de Bell et de la mécanique quantique dépend crucialement des prémisses philosophiques desquelles on part. Par exemple, au sein de la vision d’un Spinoza, le monde quantique peut bien être compris comme étant déterministe. Mais il est argué qu’aussi un déterminisme nettement moins radical que celui de Spinoza n’est pas éliminé par les expériences physiques. Si cela est vrai, le débat ‘déterminisme – indéterminisme’ n’est pas décidé au laboratoire : il reste philosophique et ouvert – contrairement à ce que l’on pense souvent. Dans la deuxième partie de cette thèse un modèle pour l’interprétation de la probabilité sera proposé. Une étude conceptuelle de la notion de probabilité indique que l’hypothèse du déterminisme aide à mieux comprendre ce que c’est qu’un ‘système probabiliste’. Il semble que le déterminisme peut répondre à certaines questions pour lesquelles l’indéterminisme n’a pas de réponses. Pour cette raison nous conclurons que la conjecture de Laplace – à savoir que la théorie des probabilités présuppose une réalité déterministe sous-jacente – garde toute sa légitimité. Dans cette thèse aussi bien les méthodes de la philosophie que de la physique seront utilisées. Il apparaît que les deux domaines sont ici solidement reliés, et qu’ils offrent un vaste potentiel de fertilisation croisée – donc bidirectionnelle.

Probability Theory. Stochastic Processes And Their Applications Probabilistic Analysis Of Some Queueing And Inventory Models

In this thesis we attempt to make a probabilistic analysis of some physically realizable, though complex, storage and queueing models. It is essentially a mathematical study of the stochastic processes underlying these models. Our aim is to have an improved understanding of the behaviour of such models, that may widen their applicability. Different inventory systems with randon1 lead times, vacation to the server, bulk demands, varying ordering levels, etc. are considered. Also we study some finite and infinite capacity queueing systems with bulk service and vacation to the server and obtain the transient solution in certain cases. Each chapter in the thesis is provided with self introduction and some important references

Application of inclusive probability theory to heavy ion-atom collisions

Using the independent particle model as our basis we present a scheme to reduce the complexity and computational effort to calculate inclusive probabilities in many-electron collision system. As an example we present an application to K - K charge transfer in collisions of 2.6 MeV Ne{^9+} on Ne. We are able to give impact parameter-dependent probabilities for many-particle states which could lead to KLL-Auger electrons after collision and we compare with experimental values.

Bibliography on the foundations of probability theory,

Mode of access: Internet.

A liberation model for comminution based on probability theory

Mineral processing plants use two main processes; these are comminution and separation. The objective of the comminution process is to break complex particles consisting of numerous minerals into smaller simpler particles where individual particles consist primarily of only one mineral. The process in which the mineral composition distribution in particles changes due to breakage is called 'liberation'. The purpose of separation is to separate particles consisting of valuable mineral from those containing nonvaluable mineral. The energy required to break particles to fine sizes is expensive, and therefore the mineral processing engineer must design the circuit so that the breakage of liberated particles is reduced in favour of breaking composite particles. In order to effectively optimize a circuit through simulation it is necessary to predict how the mineral composition distributions change due to comminution. Such a model is called a 'liberation model for comminution'. It was generally considered that such a model should incorporate information about the ore, such as the texture. However, the relationship between the feed and product particles can be estimated using a probability method, with the probability being defined as the probability that a feed particle of a particular composition and size will form a particular product particle of a particular size and composition. The model is based on maximizing the entropy of the probability subject to mass constraints and composition constraint. Not only does this methodology allow a liberation model to be developed for binary particles, but also for particles consisting of many minerals. Results from applying the model to real plant ore are presented. A laboratory ball mill was used to break particles. The results from this experiment were used to estimate the kernel which represents the relationship between parent and progeny particles. A second feed, consisting primarily of heavy particles subsampled from the main ore was then ground through the same mill. The results from the first experiment were used to predict the product of the second experiment. The agreement between the predicted results and the actual results are very good. It is therefore recommended that more extensive validation is needed to fully evaluate the substance of the method. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Asymptotic and structural properties of special cases of the Wright function arising in probability theory

This analysis paper presents previously unknown properties of some special cases of the Wright function whose consideration is necessitated by our work on probability theory and the theory of stochastic processes. Specifically, we establish new asymptotic properties of the particular Wright function 1Ψ1(ρ, k; ρ, 0; x) = X∞ n=0 Γ(k + ρn) Γ(ρn) x n n! (|x| < ∞) when the parameter ρ ∈ (−1, 0)∪(0, ∞) and the argument x is real. In the probability theory applications, which are focused on studies of the Poisson-Tweedie mixtures, the parameter k is a non-negative integer. Several representations involving well-known special functions are given for certain particular values of ρ. The asymptotics of 1Ψ1(ρ, k; ρ, 0; x) are obtained under numerous assumptions on the behavior of the arguments k and x when the parameter ρ is both positive and negative. We also provide some integral representations and structural properties involving the ‘reduced’ Wright function 0Ψ1(−−; ρ, 0; x) with ρ ∈ (−1, 0) ∪ (0, ∞), which might be useful for the derivation of new properties of members of the power-variance family of distributions. Some of these imply a reflection principle that connects the functions 0Ψ1(−−;±ρ, 0; ·) and certain Bessel functions. Several asymptotic relationships for both particular cases of this function are also given. A few of these follow under additional constraints from probability theory results which, although previously available, were unknown to analysts.

The philosophical significance of Cox's theorem

Cox's theorem states that, under certain assumptions, any measure of belief is isomorphic to a probability measure. This theorem, although intended as a justification of the subjectivist interpretation of probability theory, is sometimes presented as an argument for more controversial theses. Of particular interest is the thesis that the only coherent means of representing uncertainty is via the probability calculus. In this paper I examine the logical assumptions of Cox's theorem and I show how these impinge on the philosophical conclusions thought to be supported by the theorem. I show that the more controversial thesis is not supported by Cox's theorem. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Problems with the argument from fine tuning

The argument from fine tuning is supposed to establish the existence of God from the fact that the evolution of carbon-based life requires the laws of physics and the boundary conditions of the universe to be more or less as they are. We demonstrate that this argument fails. In particular, we focus on problems associated with the role probabilities play in the argument. We show that, even granting the fine tuning of the universe, it does not follow that the universe is improbable, thus no explanation of the fine tuning, theistic or otherwise, is required.

How to predict everything: Nostradamus in the role of Copernicus

Statistics is known to be an art as well as a science. The training of mathematical physicists predisposes them towards hypothesising plausible Bayesean priors. Tony Bracken and I were of that mind [1], but in our discussions we also recognised the Bayesean will-o'-the-wisp illustrated below.

An optimal sequential procedure for a buying-selling problem with independent observations

We consider a buying-selling problem when two stops of a sequence of independent random variables are required. An optimal stopping rule and the value of a game are obtained.