Model updating using genetic algorithms with sequential niche technique

The authors would like to express their gratitude to organizations and people that supported this research. Piotr Omenzetter’s work within the Lloyd’s Register Foundation Centre for Safety and Reliability Engineering at the University of Aberdeen is supported by Lloyd’s Register Foundation. The Foundation helps to protect life and property by supporting engineering-related education, public engagement and the application of research. Ben Ryder of Aurecon and Graeme Cummings of HEB Construction assisted in obtaining access to the bridge and information for modelling. Luke Williams and Graham Bougen, undergraduate research students, assisted with testing.

Model reduction for nonlinear aerodynamics and aeroelasticity using a Discrete Empirical Interpolation Method

A novel surrogate model is proposed in lieu of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solvers, for fast nonlinear aerodynamic and aeroelastic modeling. A nonlinear function is identified on selected interpolation points by
a discrete empirical interpolation method (DEIM). The flow field is then reconstructed using a least square approximation of the flow modes extracted
by proper orthogonal decomposition (POD). The aeroelastic reduce order
model (ROM) is completed by introducing a nonlinear mapping function
between displacements and the DEIM points. The proposed model is investigated to predict the aerodynamic forces due to forced motions using
a N ACA 0012 airfoil undergoing a prescribed pitching oscillation. To investigate aeroelastic problems at transonic conditions, a pitch/plunge airfoil
and a cropped delta wing aeroelastic models are built using linear structural models. The presence of shock-waves triggers the appearance of limit
cycle oscillations (LCO), which the model is able to predict. For all cases
tested, the new ROM shows the ability to replicate the nonlinear aerodynamic forces, structural displacements and reconstruct the complete flow
field with sufficient accuracy at a fraction of the cost of full order CFD
model.

Model reduction for nonlinear aeroelasticity using the Discrete Empirical Interpolation Method

A novel surrogate model is proposed in lieu of computational fluid dynamic (CFD) code for fast nonlinear aerodynamic modeling. First, a nonlinear function is identified on selected interpolation points defined by discrete empirical interpolation method (DEIM). The flow field is then reconstructed by a least square approximation of flow modes extracted by proper orthogonal decomposition (POD). The proposed model is applied in the prediction of limit cycle oscillation for a plunge/pitch airfoil and a delta wing with linear structural model, results are validate against a time accurate CFD-FEM code. The results show the model is able to replicate the aerodynamic forces and flow fields with sufficient accuracy while requiring a fraction of CFD cost.

Model predictive control applied to a supply chain management problem

Supply chains are ubiquitous in any commercial delivery systems. The exchange of goods and services, from different supply points to distinct destinations scattered along a given geographical area, requires the management of stocks and vehicles fleets in order to minimize costs while maintaining good quality services. Even if the operating conditions remain constant over a given time horizon, managing a supply chain is a very complex task. Its complexity increases exponentially with both the number of network nodes and the dynamical operational changes. Moreover, the management system must be adaptive in order to easily cope with several disturbances such as machinery and vehicles breakdowns or changes in demand. This work proposes the use of a model predictive control paradigm in order to tackle the above referred issues. The obtained simulation results suggest that this strategy promotes an easy tasks rescheduling in case of disturbances or anticipated changes in operating conditions. © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2017

‘‘Model age-based” and ‘‘copy when uncertain” biases in children’s social learning of a novel task

Theoretical models of social learning predict that individuals can benefit from using strategies that specify when and whom to copy. Here the interaction of two social learning strategies, model age-based biased copying and copy when uncertain, was investigated. Uncertainty was created via a systematic manipulation of demonstration efficacy (completeness) and efficiency (causal relevance of some actions). The participants, 4- to 6-year-old children (N = 140), viewed both an adult model and a child model, each of whom used a different tool on a novel task. They did so in a complete condition, a near-complete condition, a partial demonstration condition, or a no-demonstration condition. Half of the demonstrations in each condition incorporated causally irrelevant actions by the models. Social transmission was assessed by first responses but also through children’s continued fidelity, the hallmark of social traditions. Results revealed a bias to copy the child model both on first response and in continued interactions. Demonstration efficacy and efficiency did not affect choice of model at first response but did influence solution exploration across trials, with demonstrations containing causally irrelevant actions decreasing exploration of alternative methods. These results imply that uncertain environments can result in canalized social learning from specific classes of mode

Bulk density, ash content, humification, peat accumulation and selected lithogenic data of Store Mosse peat bog

This datafile presents chemical and physical as well as age dating information from the Store Mosse peat bog in southern Sweden. This record dates back to 8900 cal yr BP. The aim of the research was to reconstruct mineral dust deposition over time. As such we have only presented the lithogenic element data (Al, Ga, Rb, Sc, Ti, Y, Zr, Th and the REE) as the sample preparation method was tailored to these. This data is supported by parameters describing the deposit including bulk density, humification, ash content and net peat accumulation rates.

Modelling and predictive control techniques for building heating systems

Model predictive control (MPC) has often been referred to in literature as a potential method for more efficient control of building heating systems. Though a significant performance improvement can be achieved with an MPC strategy, the complexity introduced to the commissioning of the system is often prohibitive. Models are required which can capture the thermodynamic properties of the building with sufficient accuracy for meaningful predictions to be made. Furthermore, a large number of tuning weights may need to be determined to achieve a desired performance. For MPC to become a practicable alternative, these issues must be addressed. Acknowledging the impact of the external environment as well as the interaction of occupants on the thermal behaviour of the building, in this work, techniques have been developed for deriving building models from data in which large, unmeasured disturbances are present. A spatio-temporal filtering process was introduced to determine estimates of the disturbances from measured data, which were then incorporated with metaheuristic search techniques to derive high-order simulation models, capable of replicating the thermal dynamics of a building. While a high-order simulation model allowed for control strategies to be analysed and compared, low-order models were required for use within the MPC strategy itself. The disturbance estimation techniques were adapted for use with system-identification methods to derive such models. MPC formulations were then derived to enable a more straightforward commissioning process and implemented in a validated simulation platform. A prioritised-objective strategy was developed which allowed for the tuning parameters typically associated with an MPC cost function to be omitted from the formulation by separation of the conflicting requirements of comfort satisfaction and energy reduction within a lexicographic framework. The improved ability of the formulation to be set-up and reconfigured in faulted conditions was shown.

Destination brand equity for Australia : testing a model of CBBE in short haul and long haul markets

The study of destination brand performance measurement has only emerged in earnest as a field in the tourism literature since 2007. The concept of consumer-based brand equity (CBBE) is gaining favour from services marketing researchers as an alternative to the traditional ‘net-present-value of future earnings’ method of measuring brand equity. The perceptions-based CBBE model also appears suitable for examining destination brand performance, where a financial brand equity valuation on a destination marketing organisation’s (DMO) balance sheet is largely irrelevant. This is the first study to test and compare the model in both short and long haul markets. The paper reports the results of tests of a CBBE model for Australia in a traditional short haul market (New Zealand) and an emerging long haul market (Chile). The data from both samples indicated destination brand salience, brand image, and brand value are positively related to purchase intent for Australia in these two disparate markets.

A poroviscohyperelastic model for numerical analysis of mechanical behavior of single chondrocyte

The aim of this paper is to utilize a poroviscohyperelastic (PVHE) model which is developed based on the porohyperelastic (PHE) model to explore the mechanical deformation properties of single chondrocytes. Both creep and relaxation responses are investigated by using FEM models of micropipette aspiration and AFM experiments, respectively. The newly developed PVHE model is compared thoroughly with the SnHS and PHE models. It has been found that the PVHE can accurately capture both creep and stress relaxation behaviors of chondrocytes better than other two models. Hence, the PVHE is a promising model to investigate mechanical properties of single chondrocytes.

Alive SMC^2: Bayesian model selection for low-count time series models with intractable likelihoods

In this paper we present a new method for performing Bayesian parameter inference and model choice for low count time series models with intractable likelihoods. The method involves incorporating an alive particle filter within a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm to create a novel pseudo-marginal algorithm, which we refer to as alive SMC^2. The advantages of this approach over competing approaches is that it is naturally adaptive, it does not involve between-model proposals required in reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo and does not rely on potentially rough approximations. The algorithm is demonstrated on Markov process and integer autoregressive moving average models applied to real biological datasets of hospital-acquired pathogen incidence, animal health time series and the cumulative number of poison disease cases in mule deer.

Toward the multilevel older person's transportation and road safety model: A new perspective on the role of demographic, functional, and psychosocial factors

Objectives Self-regulation refers to the practice of using self-imposed restrictions to protect oneself from situations that are, or are perceived to be, unsafe. Within the driving context, self-regulation refers the compensatory practices that some older adults adopt to restrict their driving to situations in which they feel safe. However, the way in which demographic, functional, and psychosocial factors, and the interactions between these factors, influence older adults’ driving self-regulation is not well understood. Improving this understanding could lead to new ways of considering the mobility concerns faced by older drivers. Method A systematic review of the current literature was conducted to explore this issue. Twenty-nine empirical studies investigating the factors associated with older adults’ self-regulatory driving behaviors were examined. Results The review findings were used to construct the Multilevel Older Persons Transportation and Road Safety (MOTRS) model. The MOTRS model proposes that individual and environmental factors such as age, gender, and the availability of alternative transportation predict older adults’ practice of driving-related self-regulation. However, these variables influence self-regulation through psychosocial variables such as driving confidence, affective attitude, and instrumental attitude toward driving. Discussions The MOTRS model extends previous attempts to model older adults’ driving by focusing on a novel target, driving self-regulation, and by including a wider range of predictors identified on the basis of the systematic literature review. This focus enables consideration of broader mobility issues and may inform new strategies to support the mobility of older adults.

A network DEA quantity and quality-orientated production model: An application to Australian university research services

The motivation for this analysis is the recently developed Excellence in Research for Australia (ERA) program developed to assess the quality of research in Australia. The objective is to develop an appropriate empirical model that better represents the underlying production of higher education research. In general, past studies on university research performance have used standard DEA models with some quantifiable research outputs. However, these suffer from the twin maladies of an inappropriate production specification and a lack of consideration of the quality of output. By including the qualitative attributes of peer-reviewed journals, we develop a procedure that captures both quality and quantity, and apply it using a network DEA model. Our main finding is that standard DEA models tend to overstate the research efficiency of most Australian universities.

Developments of the total entropy utility function for the dual purpose of model discrimination and parameter estimation in Bayesian design

The total entropy utility function is considered for the dual purpose of Bayesian design for model discrimination and parameter estimation. A sequential design setting is proposed where it is shown how to efficiently estimate the total entropy utility for a wide variety of data types. Utility estimation relies on forming particle approximations to a number of intractable integrals which is afforded by the use of the sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for Bayesian inference. A number of motivating examples are considered for demonstrating the performance of total entropy in comparison to utilities for model discrimination and parameter estimation. The results suggest that the total entropy utility selects designs which are efficient under both experimental goals with little compromise in achieving either goal. As such, the total entropy utility is advocated as a general utility for Bayesian design in the presence of model uncertainty.

A mathematical model for intermittent microwave convective (IMCD) drying of food materials

Intermittent microwave convective drying (IMCD) is an advanced technology that improves both energy efficiency and food quality in drying. Modelling of IMCD is essential to understand the physics of this advanced drying process and to optimize the microwave power level and intermittency during drying. However, there is still a lack of modelling studies dedicated to IMCD. In this study, a mathematical model for IMCD was developed and validated with experimental data. The model showed that the interior temperature of the material was higher than the surface in IMCD, and that the temperatures fluctuated and redistributed due to the intermittency of the microwave power. This redistribution of temperature could significantly contribute to the improvement of product quality during IMCD. Limitations when using Lambert's Law for microwave heat generation were identified and discussed.

Predictors of condom use behaviour among male street labourers in urban Vietnam using a modified Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills (IMB) model

HIV risk in vulnerable groups such as itinerant male street labourers is often examined via a focus on individual determinants. This study provides a test of a modified Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills (IMB) model to predict condom use behaviour among male street workers in urban Vietnam. In a cross-sectional survey using a social mapping technique, 450 male street labourers from 13 districts of Hanoi, Vietnam were recruited and interviewed. Collected data were first examined for completeness; structural equation modelling was then employed to test the model fit. Condoms were used inconsistently by many of these men, and usage varied in relation to a number of factors. A modified IMB model had a better fit than the original IMB model in predicting condom use behaviour. This modified model accounted for 49% of the variance, versus 10% by the original version. In the modified model, the influence of psychosocial factors was moderately high, whilst the influence of HIV prevention information, motivation and perceived behavioural skills was moderately low, explaining in part the limited level of condom use behaviour. This study provides insights into social factors that should be taken into account in public health planning to promote safer sexual behaviour among Asian male street labourers.