Evaluation of seismic losses of RC buildings: the case of the industrial areas after the 2012 Emilia Earthquake

The topic of seismic loss assessment not only incorporates many aspects of the earthquake engineering, but also entails social factors, public policies and business interests. Because of its multidisciplinary character, this process may be complex to challenge, and sound discouraging to neophytes. In this context, there is an increasing need of deriving simplified methodologies to streamline the process and provide tools for decision-makers and practitioners. This dissertation investigates different possible applications both in the area of modelling of seismic losses, both in the analysis of observational seismic data. Regarding the first topic, the PRESSAFE-disp method is proposed for the fast evaluation of the fragility curves of precast reinforced-concrete (RC) structures. Hence, a direct application of the method to the productive area of San Felice is studied to assess the number of collapses under a specific seismic scenario. In particular, with reference to the 2012 events, two large-scale stochastic models are outlined. The outcomes of the framework are promising, in good agreement with the observed damage scenario. Furthermore, a simplified displacement-based methodology is outlined to estimate different loss performance metrics for the decision-making phase of the seismic retrofit of a single RC building. The aim is to evaluate the seismic performance of different retrofit options, for a comparative analysis of their effectiveness and the convenience. Finally, a contribution to the analysis of the observational data is presented in the last part of the dissertation. A specific database of losses of precast RC buildings damaged by the 2012 Earthquake is created. A statistical analysis is performed, allowing deriving several consequence functions. The outcomes presented may be implemented in probabilistic seismic risk assessments to forecast the losses at the large scale. Furthermore, these may be adopted to establish retrofit policies to prevent and reduce the consequences of future earthquakes in industrial areas.

The analysis of the collapse of a precast r.c. industrial building during the 29th may 2012 emilia romagna earthquake

Analysis of the collapse of a precast r.c. industrial building during the 2012 Emilia earthquake, focus on the failure mechanisms in particular on the flexure-shear interactions. Analysis performed by a time history analysis using a FEM model with the software SAP2000. Finally a reconstruction of the collapse on the basis of the numerical data coming from the strength capacity of the elements failed, using formulation for lightly reinforced columns with high shear and bending moment.

Studio Integrato Geomorfologico-Geofisico dell'Area Epicentrale del Terremoto del 20 Maggio 2012 (Mw 5.9) in Emilia-Romagna

La Sequenza Sismica Emiliana del 2012 ha colpito la zona compresa tra Mirandola e Ferrara con notevoli manifestazioni cosismiche e post-sismiche secondarie, soprattutto legate al fenomeno della liquefazione delle sabbie e alla formazione di fratturazioni superficiali del terreno. A fronte del fatto che la deformazione principale, osservata tramite tecniche di remote-sensing, ha permesso di individuare la posizione della struttura generatrice, ci si è interrogati sul rapporto tra strutture profonde e manifestazioni secondarie superficiali. In questa tesi è stato svolto un lavoro di integrazione di dati a varia scala, dalla superficie al sottosuolo, fino profondità di alcuni chilometri, per analizzare il legame tra le strutture geologiche che hanno generato il sisma e gli effetti superficiali percepiti dagli osservatori. Questo, non solo in riferimento allo specifico del sisma emiliano del 2012, ma al fine di trarre utili informazioni in una prospettiva storica e geologica sugli effetti di un terremoto “tipico”, in una regione dove le strutture generatrici non affiorano in superficie. Gli elementi analizzati comprendono nuove acquisizioni e rielaborazioni di dati pregressi, e includono cartografie geomorfologiche, telerilevamenti, profili sismici a riflessione superficiale e profonda, stratigrafie e informazioni sulla caratterizzazione dell’area rispetto al rischio sismico. Parte dei dati di nuova acquisizione è il risultato dello sviluppo e la sperimentazione di metodologie innovative di prospezione sismica in corsi e specchi d’acqua continentali, che sono state utilizzate con successo lungo il Cavo Napoleonico, un canale artificiale che taglia ortogonalmente la zona di massima deformazione del sisma del 20 Maggio. Lo sviluppo della nuova metodologia di indagine geofisica, applicata ad un caso concreto, ha permesso di migliorare le tecniche di imaging del sottosuolo, oltre a segnalare nuove evidenze co-sismiche che rimanevano nascoste sotto le acque del canale, e a fornire elementi utili alla stratigrafia del terreno. Il confronto tra dati geofisici e dati geomorfologici ha permesso di cartografare con maggiore dettaglio i corpi e le forme sedimentarie superficiali legati alla divagazione fluviale dall’VIII sec a.C.. I dati geofisici, superficiali e profondi, hanno evidenziato il legame tra le strutture sismogeniche e le manifestazioni superficiali seguite al sisma emiliano. L’integrazione dei dati disponibili, sia nuovi che da letteratura, ha evidenziato il rapporto tra strutture profonde e sedimentazione, e ha permesso di calcolare i tassi geologici di sollevamento della struttura generatrice del sisma del 20 Maggio. I risultati di questo lavoro hanno implicazioni in vari ambiti, tra i quali la valutazione del rischio sismico e la microzonazione sismica, basata su una caratterizzazione geomorfologico-geologico-geofisica dettagliata dei primi 20 metri al di sotto della superficie topografica. Il sisma emiliano del 2012 ha infatti permesso di riconoscere l’importanza del substrato per lo sviluppo di fenomeni co- e post-sismici secondari, in un territorio fortemente eterogeneo come la Pianura Padana.

Spatial and temporal characterisation of ground deformation recorded by geodetic techniques

A critical point in the analysis of ground displacements time series is the development of data driven methods that allow the different sources that generate the observed displacements to be discerned and characterised. A widely used multivariate statistical technique is the Principal Component Analysis (PCA), which allows reducing the dimensionality of the data space maintaining most of the variance of the dataset explained. Anyway, PCA does not perform well in finding the solution to the so-called Blind Source Separation (BSS) problem, i.e. in recovering and separating the original sources that generated the observed data. This is mainly due to the assumptions on which PCA relies: it looks for a new Euclidean space where the projected data are uncorrelated. The Independent Component Analysis (ICA) is a popular technique adopted to approach this problem. However, the independence condition is not easy to impose, and it is often necessary to introduce some approximations. To work around this problem, I use a variational bayesian ICA (vbICA) method, which models the probability density function (pdf) of each source signal using a mix of Gaussian distributions. This technique allows for more flexibility in the description of the pdf of the sources, giving a more reliable estimate of them. Here I present the application of the vbICA technique to GPS position time series. First, I use vbICA on synthetic data that simulate a seismic cycle (interseismic + coseismic + postseismic + seasonal + noise) and a volcanic source, and I study the ability of the algorithm to recover the original (known) sources of deformation. Secondly, I apply vbICA to different tectonically active scenarios, such as the 2009 L'Aquila (central Italy) earthquake, the 2012 Emilia (northern Italy) seismic sequence, and the 2006 Guerrero (Mexico) Slow Slip Event (SSE).

Possible earthquake trigger for 6th century mass wasting deposit at Lake Ohrid (Macedonia/Albania)

Abstract. Lake Ohrid shared by the Republics of Albania and Macedonia is formed by a tectonically active graben within the south Balkans and suggested to be the oldest lake in Europe. Several studies have shown that the lake provides a valuable record of climatic and environmental changes and a distal tephrostratigraphic record of volcanic eruptions from Italy. Fault structures identified in seismic data demonstrate that sediments have also the potential to record tectonic activity in the region. Here, we provide an example of linking seismic and sedimentological information with tectonic activity and historical documents. Historical documents indicate that a major earthquake destroyed the city of Lychnidus (today: city of Ohrid) in the early 6th century AD. Multichannel seismic profiles, parametric sediment echosounder profiles, and a 10.08m long sediment record from the western part of the lake indicate a 2m thick mass wasting deposit, which is tentatively correlated with this earthquake. The mass wasting deposit is chronologically well constrained, as it directly overlays the AD472/AD 512 tephra. Moreover, radiocarbon dates and cross correlation with other sediment sequences with similar geochemical characteristics of the Holocene indicate that the mass wasting event took place prior to the onset of the Medieval Warm Period, and is attributed it to one of the known earthquakes in the region in the early 6th century AD.

Una chiesa di campagna a San Biagio. Ricostruire dopo il sisma.

Il progetto indaga principalmente le modalità di approccio ai manufatti in rovina, crollati dopo il sisma di maggio 2012, in Emilia; nello specifico, sulla chiesa di San Biagio in Padule. In particolare, si è cercato di comprendere la relazione che è possibile instaurare tra la preesistenza e la nuova costruzione: il concetto di contemporaneità in architettura. Quest'ultimo, diventa concept dell'intero progetto che vede la realizzazione della nuova chiesa, all'interno dei ruderi di quella antica, creando una promenade che si sviluppa sui tre livelli (interrato: museo del terremoto, piano terra: cappelle e spazi per la meditazione, piano primo: aula della chiesa).

Terremoto emilia 2012: I "torrioni" di San Prospero - dalla messa in sicurezza alla nuova funzione.

L'oggetto di questa tesi è la villa i Torrioni situata nel comune di San Prospero in provincia di Modena. Si tratta di una villa a due torri presumibilmente sorta nella prima metà del Cinquecento, in aperta campagna. L'interesse verso il fabbricato nasce dallo stato di danno provocato dagli eventi sismici che hanno coinvolto questi territori tra il maggio e il giugno del 2012, aggravato dalla condizione di abbandono in cui verteva da diversi anni. La tesi si divide in tre parti: conoscenza del manufatto, valutazione del rischio sismico e progetto di restauro.

STATIC AND DYNAMIC STRESS CHANGE AT 27 VOLCANOES OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN VOLCANIC ARC AFTER THE MW. 7.6 COSTA RICA EARTHQUAKE OF 5 SEPTEMBER 2012

Large earthquakes may strongly influence the activity of volcanoes through static and dynamic processes. In this study, we quantify the static and dynamic stress change on 27 volcanoes in Central America, after the Mw 7.6 Costa Rica earthquake of 5 September 2012. Following this event, 8 volcanoes showed signs of activity. We calculated the static stress change due to the earthquake on hypothetical faults under these volcanoes with Coulomb 3.3. For the dynamic stress change, we computed synthetic seismograms to simulate the waveforms at these volcanoes. We then calculated the Peak Dynamic Stress (PDS) from the modeled peak ground velocities. The resulting values are from moderate to minor changes in stress (10-1-10-2 MPa) with the PDS values generally an order of magnitude larger than the static stress change. Although these values are small, they may be enough to trigger a response by the volcanoes, and are on the order of stress changes implicated in many other studies of volcano and earthquake triggering by large earthquakes. This study provides insight into the poorly-constrained mechanism for remote triggering.

Emilia Flores de Tejada (ed.). La justicia, pasión y reflexión en la Grecia Antigua. Esquilo, Píndaro y Heródoto. San Juan, Universidad Nacional de San Juan, Facultad de Filosofía, Humanidades y Artes, 2012, 202 pp.

Fil: Poquet, Adriana. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo

The source of the 1722 Algarve earthquake: evidence from MCS and tsunami data

The 27 December 1722 Algarve earthquake destroyed a large area in southern Portugal generating a local tsunami that inundated the shallow areas of Tavira. It is unclear whether its source was located onshore or offshore and, in any case, what was the tectonic source responsible for the event. We analyze available historical information concerning macroseismicity and the tsunami to discuss the most probable location of the source. We also review available seismotectonic knowledge of the offshore region close to the probable epicenter, selecting a set of four candidate sources. We simulate tsunamis produced by these candidate sources assuming that the sea bottom displacement is caused by a compressive dislocation over a rectangular fault, as given by the half-space homogeneous elastic approach, and we use numerical modeling to study wave propagation and run-up. We conclude that the 27 December 1722 Tavira earthquake and tsunami was probably generated offshore, close to 37 degrees 01'N, 7 degrees 49'W.

Fractional dynamics and MDS visualization of earthquake phenomena

This paper analyses earthquake data in the perspective of dynamical systems and fractional calculus (FC). This new standpoint uses Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) as a powerful clustering and visualization tool. FC extends the concepts of integrals and derivatives to non-integer and complex orders. MDS is a technique that produces spatial or geometric representations of complex objects, such that those objects that are perceived to be similar in some sense are placed on the MDS maps forming clusters. In this study, over three million seismic occurrences, covering the period from January 1, 1904 up to March 14, 2012 are analysed. The events are characterized by their magnitude and spatiotemporal distributions and are divided into fifty groups, according to the Flinn–Engdahl (F–E) seismic regions of Earth. Several correlation indices are proposed to quantify the similarities among regions. MDS maps are proven as an intuitive and useful visual representation of the complex relationships that are present among seismic events, which may not be perceived on traditional geographic maps. Therefore, MDS constitutes a valid alternative to classic visualization tools for understanding the global behaviour of earthquakes.

Multidimensional scaling visualization of earthquake phenomena

Earthquakes are associated with negative events, such as large number of casualties, destruction of buildings and infrastructures, or emergence of tsunamis. In this paper, we apply the Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) analysis to earthquake data. MDS is a set of techniques that produce spatial or geometric representations of complex objects, such that, objects perceived to be similar/distinct in some sense are placed nearby/distant on the MDS maps. The interpretation of the charts is based on the resulting clusters since MDS produces a different locus for each similarity measure. In this study, over three million seismic occurrences, covering the period from January 1, 1904 up to March 14, 2012 are analyzed. The events, characterized by their magnitude and spatiotemporal distributions, are divided into groups, either according to the Flinn–Engdahl seismic regions of Earth or using a rectangular grid based in latitude and longitude coordinates. Space-time and Space-frequency correlation indices are proposed to quantify the similarities among events. MDS has the advantage of avoiding sensitivity to the non-uniform spatial distribution of seismic data, resulting from poorly instrumented areas, and is well suited for accessing dynamics of complex systems. MDS maps are proven as an intuitive and useful visual representation of the complex relationships that are present among seismic events, which may not be perceived on traditional geographic maps. Therefore, MDS constitutes a valid alternative to classic visualization tools, for understanding the global behavior of earthquakes.

Integer and Fractional Order Entropy Analysis of Earthquake Data-series

This paper studies the statistical distributions of worldwide earthquakes from year 1963 up to year 2012. A Cartesian grid, dividing Earth into geographic regions, is considered. Entropy and the Jensen–Shannon divergence are used to analyze and compare real-world data. Hierarchical clustering and multi-dimensional scaling techniques are adopted for data visualization. Entropy-based indices have the advantage of leading to a single parameter expressing the relationships between the seismic data. Classical and generalized (fractional) entropy and Jensen–Shannon divergence are tested. The generalized measures lead to a clear identification of patterns embedded in the data and contribute to better understand earthquake distributions.

Evaluation of thermal remote sensing for detection of thermal anomalies as earthquake precursors: a case study for Malatya-Pütürge-Doganyol (Turkey) Earthquake, July 13, 2003

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.