Comparison of scoring systems for invasive pests using ROC analysis and Monte Carlo simulation

Different international plant protection organisations advocate different schemes for conducting pest risk assessments. Most of these schemes use structured questionnaire in which experts are asked to score several items using an ordinal scale. The scores are then combined using a range of procedures, such as simple arithmetic mean, weighted averages, multiplication of scores, and cumulative sums. The most useful schemes will correctly identify harmful pests and identify ones that are not. As the quality of a pest risk assessment can depend on the characteristics of the scoring system used by the risk assessors (i.e., on the number of points of the scale and on the method used for combining the component scores), it is important to assess and compare the performance of different scoring systems. In this article, we proposed a new method for assessing scoring systems. Its principle is to simulate virtual data using a stochastic model and, then, to estimate sensitivity and specificity values from these data for different scoring systems. The interest of our approach was illustrated in a case study where several scoring systems were compared. Data for this analysis were generated using a probabilistic model describing the pest introduction process. The generated data were then used to simulate the outcome of scoring systems and to assess the accuracy of the decisions about positive and negative introduction. The results showed that ordinal scales with at most 5 or 6 points were sufficient and that the multiplication-based scoring systems performed better than their sum-based counterparts. The proposed method could be used in the future to assess a great diversity of scoring systems.

The distribution and spread of citrus canker in Emerald, Australia

Citrus canker is a disease of citrus and closely related species, caused by the bacterium Xanthomonas citri subsp. citri. This disease, previously exotic to Australia, was detected on a single farm [infested premise-1, (IP1). IP is the terminology used in official biosecurity protocols to describe a locality at which an exotic plant pest has been confirmed or is presumed to exist. IP are numbered sequentially as they are detected] in Emerald, Queensland in July 2004. During the following 10 months the disease was subsequently detected on two other farms (IP2 and IP3) within the same area and studies indicated the disease first occurred on IP1 and spread to IP2 and IP3. The oldest, naturally infected plant tissue observed on any of these farms indicated the disease was present on IP1 for several months before detection and established on IP2 and IP3 during the second quarter (i.e. autumn) 2004. Transect studies on some IP1 blocks showed disease incidences ranged between 52 and 100% (trees infected). This contrasted to very low disease incidence, less than 4% of trees within a block, on IP2 and IP3. The mechanisms proposed for disease spread within blocks include weather-assisted dispersal of the bacterium (e.g. wind-driven rain) and movement of contaminated farm equipment, in particular by pivot irrigator towers via mechanical damage in combination with abundant water. Spread between blocks on IP2 was attributed to movement of contaminated farm equipment and/or people. Epidemiology results suggest: (i) successive surveillance rounds increase the likelihood of disease detection; (ii) surveillance sensitivity is affected by tree size; and (iii) individual destruction zones (for the purpose of eradication) could be determined using disease incidence and severity data rather than a predefined set area.

Vectors and alternative hosts of tobacco yellow dwarf virus in southeastern Australia

Factors that determine the epidemiology of Tobacco yellow dwarf virus (TbYDV), including alternative host plants and insect vector(s), were assessed over three consecutive growing seasons at four field sites in Northeastern Victoria in commercial tobacco growing properties. In addition, these factors were assessed for one growing season at three bean growing properties. Overall, 23 leafhopper species were identified at the 7 sites, with Orosius orientalis as the predominant leafhopper. Of the leafhoppers collected, only O. orientalis and Anzygina zealandica tested positive for TbYDV by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The population dynamics of O. orientalis was assessed using sweep net sampling over three growing seasons and a trimodal distribution was observed. Despite large numbers of O. orientalis occurring early in the growing season (September–October), TbYDV was only detected in these leafhoppers between late November and end of January. The peaks in the detection of TbYDV in O. orientalis correlated with the observation of disease symptoms in tobacco and bean and were associated with warmer temperatures and lower rainfall. Spatial and temporal distribution of vegetation at selected sites was determined using quadrat sampling. Of the 40 plant species identified, TbYDV was detected only in four dicotyledonous species, Amaranthus retroflexus, Phaseolus vulgaris, Nicotiana tabacum and Raphanus raphanistrum. The proportion of host and non-host availability for leafhoppers was associated with climatic conditions.

Insect distributions and sampling protocols for stored commodities

Purpose of review: This review provides an overview on the importance of characterising and considering insect distribution infor- mation for designing stored commodity sampling protocols. Findings: Sampling protocols are influenced by a number of factors including government regulations, management practices, new technology and current perceptions of the status of insect pest damage. The spatial distribution of insects in stored commodities influ- ences the efficiency of sampling protocols; these can vary in response to season, treatment and other factors. It is important to use sam- pling designs based on robust statistics suitable for the purpose. Future research: The development of sampling protocols based on flexible, robust statistics allows for accuracy across a range of spatial distributions. Additionally, power can be added to sampling protocols through the integration of external information such as treatment history and climate. Bayesian analysis provides a coherent and well understood means to achieve this.

Towards a model of spray-canopy interactions : interception, shatter, bounce and retention of droplets on horizontal leaves

Pesticides used in agricultural systems must be applied in economically viable and environmentally sensitive ways, and this often requires expensive field trials on spray deposition and retention by plant foliage. Computational models to describe whether a spray droplet sticks (adheres), bounces or shatters on impact, and if any rebounding parent or shatter daughter droplets are recaptured, would provide an estimate of spray retention and thereby act as a useful guide prior to any field trials. Parameter-driven interactive software has been implemented to enable the end-user to study and visualise droplet interception and impaction on a single, horizontal leaf. Living chenopodium, wheat and cotton leaves have been scanned to capture the surface topography and realistic virtual leaf surface models have been generated. Individual leaf models have then been subjected to virtual spray droplets and predictions made of droplet interception with the virtual plant leaf. Thereafter, the impaction behaviour of the droplets and the subsequent behaviour of any daughter droplets, up until re-capture, are simulated to give the predicted total spray retention by the leaf. A series of critical thresholds for the stick, bounce, and shatter elements in the impaction process have been developed for different combinations of formulation, droplet size and velocity, and leaf surface characteristics to provide this output. The results show that droplet properties, spray formulations and leaf surface characteristics all influence the predicted amount of spray retained on a horizontal leaf surface. Overall the predicted spray retention increases as formulation surface tension, static contact angle, droplet size and velocity decreases. Predicted retention on cotton is much higher than on chenopodium. The average predicted retention on a single horizontal leaf across all droplet size, velocity and formulations scenarios tested, is 18, 30 and 85% for chenopodium, wheat and cotton, respectively.

Spider fauna of soybean crops in south-east Queensland and their potential as predators of Helicoverpa spp. (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae)

Spiders are among the most abundant predators recorded in grain crops in Australia. They are voracious predators, and combined with their high abundance, may play an important role in the reduction of pest populations. The significance of spider assemblages as biological control agents of key pests such as Helicoverpa spp. in Australian agroecosystems is largely unknown. A thorough inventory was made of the spider fauna inhabiting unsprayed soybean fields at Gatton, south-east Queensland. One-hundred-and-two morphospecies from 28 families were collected using vacuum sampling and pitfall traps across two summer seasons (2000-01, 2001-02). No-choice feeding tests in the laboratory, using eggs and larvae of Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner) as prey, were used to ascertain the predatory potential of each spider group. The field-collected spider assemblage ate on average 2.4 (+/-0.7 standard error) to 5.0 (+/-0.8) eggs per 24 h per spider (10-25% of those available), depending on level of starvation. Clubionidae were the only spiders to readily consume eggs in the laboratory (mean of 18.4 +/- 1.5 eggs per starved spider and 8.2 +/- 3.9 per non-starved spider after 24 h). Starved spiders consumed 9.4 (+/- 0.1) first-instar larvae per 24 h per spider (90% of those available). This information was combined with field observations and literature from Australian and overseas studies to assess the potential of spider groups as predators of Helicoverpa spp. Lycosidae, Clubionidae, Oxyopidae, Salticidae and Thomisidae have the capacity to contribute to control of Helicoverpa spp.

Effect of growing site, moisture stress and seed size on viability and dormancy of Sporobolus pyramidalis (giant rats tail grass) seed

Sporobolus pyramidalis P. Beauv (giant rats tail grass) is a serious agricultural and environmental weed in tropical and subtropical areas of Australia. Infestations of this unpalatable plant reduce the productivity of pastures and the profitability of industries dependent on grazing animals. This paper reports a series of studies undertaken to assist in the development of control strategies for this species. In particular, these studies measured the viability and dormancy status of fresh seed of S. pyramidalis and the decline of dormancy with time. Variability in these characteristics was determined in seeds collected from several sites within south-east Queensland. The effect of moisture availability during the inflorescence and seed production phases on seed viability and dormancy was also determined. The dormancy of freshly collected seed from several sites ranged from 15 to 95%, but decreased to negligible levels after 4-6 months. Seeds that matured under conditions of high moisture availability were initially more dormant than seeds matured where moisture was less readily available. The proportion of viable seeds was significantly lower in smaller than larger seeds even though viability for all seed sizes exceeded 90%. This study has shown that seed of S. pyramidalis generally has high viability with a large proportion of the seed germinable soon after maturity.

Improving detection probabilities for pests in stored grains

BACKGROUND: The presence of insects in stored grains is a significant problem for grain farmers, bulk grain handlers and distributors worldwide. Inspections of bulk grain commodities is essential to detect pests and therefore to reduce the risk of their presence in exported goods. It has been well documented that insect pests cluster in response to factors such as microclimatic conditions within bulk grain. Statistical sampling methodologies for grains, however, have typically considered pests and pathogens to be homogeneously distributed throughout grain commodities. In this paper we demonstrate a sampling methodology that accounts for the heterogeneous distribution of insects in bulk grains. RESULTS: We show that failure to account for the heterogeneous distribution of pests may lead to overestimates of the capacity for a sampling program to detect insects in bulk grains. Our results indicate the importance of the proportion of grain that is infested in addition to the density of pests within the infested grain. We also demonstrate that the probability of detecting pests in bulk grains increases as the number of sub-samples increases, even when the total volume or mass of grain sampled remains constant. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates the importance of considering an appropriate biological model when developing sampling methodologies for insect pests. Accounting for a heterogeneous distribution of pests leads to a considerable improvement in the detection of pests over traditional sampling models.

Improving taro (Colocasia esculenta var. esculenta) production using biotechnological approaches

Taro (Colocasia esculenta L. Schott) is an important crop worldwide but is of particular significance in many Pacific Island countries where it forms part of the staple diet and serves as an export commodity. Escalating pest and disease problems are jeopardizing taro production with serious implications to food security and trade. Biotechnological approaches to addressing pest and disease problems, such as somatic embryogenesis and transgenesis, are potentially viable options. However, despite biotechnological advancements in higher profile agronomic crops, such progress in relation to Colocasia esculenta var. esculenta has been slow. This paper reviews taro biology, highlights the cultural and economic significance of taro in Pacific Island countries and discusses the progress made towards the molecular breeding of this important crop to date.

Apoptosis-related genes confer resistance to Fusarium wilt in transgenic ‘Lady Finger’ bananas

Fusarium wilt, caused by Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense (Foc), is one of the most devastating diseases of banana (Musa spp.). Apart from resistant cultivars, there are no effective control measures for the disease. We investigated whether the transgenic expression of apoptosis-inhibition related genes in banana could be used to confer disease resistance. Embryogenic cell suspensions of the banana cultivar, ‘Lady Finger’, were stably transformed with animal genes that negatively regulate apoptosis, namely Bcl-xL, Ced-9 and Bcl-2 3’ UTR, and independently transformed plant lines were regenerated for testing. Following a 12 week exposure to Foc race 1 in small-plant glasshouse bioassays, seven transgenic lines (2 x Bcl-xL, 3 x Ced-9 and 2 x Bcl-2 3’ UTR) showed significantly less internal and external disease symptoms than the wild-type susceptible ‘Lady Finger’ banana plants used as positive controls. Of these, one Bcl-2 3’ UTR line showed resistance that was equivalent to that of wild-type Cavendish bananas that were included as resistant negative controls. Further, the resistance of this line continued for 23 weeks post-inoculation at which time the experiment was terminated. Using TUNEL assays, Foc race 1 was shown to induce apoptosis-like features in the roots of wild-type ‘Lady Finger’ plants consistent with a necrotrophic phase in the lifecycle of this pathogen. This was further supported by the observed reduction of these effects in the roots of the resistant Bcl-2 3’ UTR transgenic line. This is the first report on the generation of transgenic banana plants with resistance to Fusarium wilt.