"Odds ratio": algumas considerações

Tem sido grande o número de estudos retrospectivos e transversais controlados que utilizam o "odds ratio" como medida de intensidade de associação. Visando melhor compreensão do significado desta medida, o "odds ratio" foi comparado com a razão de prevalências; foi estudado o comportamento desta medida em relação a variação amostrai de prevalência do fator de risco nos casos e nos controles; e a importância de expressar o "odds ratio" com o respectivo intervalo de confiança.

Measuring an effect size from dichotomized data : contrasted results whether using a correlation or an odds-ratio

It is well known that dichotomizing continuous data has the effect to decrease statistical power when the goal is to test for a statistical association between two variables. Modern researchers however are focusing not only on statistical significance but also on an estimation of the "effect size" (i.e., the strength of association between the variables) to judge whether a significant association is also clinically relevant. In this article, we are interested in the consequences of dichotomizing continuous data on the value of an effect size in some classical settings. It turns out that the conclusions will not be the same whether using a correlation or an odds ratio to summarize the strength of association between the variables: Whereas the value of a correlation is typically decreased by a factor pi/2 after each dichotomization, the value of an odds ratio is at the same time raised to the power 2. From a descriptive statistical point of view, it is thus not clear whether dichotomizing continuous data leads to a decrease or to an increase in the effect size, as illustrated using a data set to investigate the relationship between motor and intellectual functions in children and adolescents

Active-control trials with binary data: a comparison of methods for testing superiority or non-inferiority using the odds ratio

This paper considers methods for testing for superiority or non-inferiority in active-control trials with binary data, when the relative treatment effect is expressed as an odds ratio. Three asymptotic tests for the log-odds ratio based on the unconditional binary likelihood are presented, namely the likelihood ratio, Wald and score tests. All three tests can be implemented straightforwardly in standard statistical software packages, as can the corresponding confidence intervals. Simulations indicate that the three alternatives are similar in terms of the Type I error, with values close to the nominal level. However, when the non-inferiority margin becomes large, the score test slightly exceeds the nominal level. In general, the highest power is obtained from the score test, although all three tests are similar and the observed differences in power are not of practical importance. Copyright (C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Sample size considerations in active-control non-inferiority trials with binary data based on the odds ratio

This paper presents an approximate closed form sample size formula for determining non-inferiority in active-control trials with binary data. We use the odds-ratio as the measure of the relative treatment effect, derive the sample size formula based on the score test and compare it with a second, well-known formula based on the Wald test. Both closed form formulae are compared with simulations based on the likelihood ratio test. Within the range of parameter values investigated, the score test closed form formula is reasonably accurate when non-inferiority margins are based on odds-ratios of about 0.5 or above and when the magnitude of the odds ratio under the alternative hypothesis lies between about 1 and 2.5. The accuracy generally decreases as the odds ratio under the alternative hypothesis moves upwards from 1. As the non-inferiority margin odds ratio decreases from 0.5, the score test closed form formula increasingly overestimates the sample size irrespective of the magnitude of the odds ratio under the alternative hypothesis. The Wald test closed form formula is also reasonably accurate in the cases where the score test closed form formula works well. Outside these scenarios, the Wald test closed form formula can either underestimate or overestimate the sample size, depending on the magnitude of the non-inferiority margin odds ratio and the odds ratio under the alternative hypothesis. Although neither approximation is accurate for all cases, both approaches lead to satisfactory sample size calculation for non-inferiority trials with binary data where the odds ratio is the parameter of interest.

A note on the use of the generalized odds ratio in meta-analysis of association studies involving bi- and tri-allelic polymorphisms

Abstract Background The generalized odds ratio (GOR) was recently suggested as a genetic model-free measure for association studies. However, its properties were not extensively investigated. We used Monte Carlo simulations to investigate type-I error rates, power and bias in both effect size and between-study variance estimates of meta-analyses using the GOR as a summary effect, and compared these results to those obtained by usual approaches of model specification. We further applied the GOR in a real meta-analysis of three genome-wide association studies in Alzheimer's disease. Findings For bi-allelic polymorphisms, the GOR performs virtually identical to a standard multiplicative model of analysis (e.g. per-allele odds ratio) for variants acting multiplicatively, but augments slightly the power to detect variants with a dominant mode of action, while reducing the probability to detect recessive variants. Although there were differences among the GOR and usual approaches in terms of bias and type-I error rates, both simulation- and real data-based results provided little indication that these differences will be substantial in practice for meta-analyses involving bi-allelic polymorphisms. However, the use of the GOR may be slightly more powerful for the synthesis of data from tri-allelic variants, particularly when susceptibility alleles are less common in the populations (≤10%). This gain in power may depend on knowledge of the direction of the effects. Conclusions For the synthesis of data from bi-allelic variants, the GOR may be regarded as a multiplicative-like model of analysis. The use of the GOR may be slightly more powerful in the tri-allelic case, particularly when susceptibility alleles are less common in the populations.

Limitations of the Odds Ratio in Gauging the Performance of a Diagnostic or Prognostic Marker

A marker that is strongly associated with outcome (or disease) is often assumed to be effective for classifying individuals according to their current or future outcome. However, for this to be true, the associated odds ratio must be of a magnitude rarely seen in epidemiological studies. An illustration of the relationship between odds ratios and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves shows, for example, that a marker with an odds ratio as high as 3 is in fact a very poor classification tool. If a marker identifies 10 percent of controls as positive (false positives) and has an odds ratio of 3, then it will only correctly identify 25 percent of cases as positive (true positives). Moreover, the authors illustrate that a single measure of association such as an odds ratio does not meaningfully describe a marker’s ability to classify subjects. Appropriate statistical methods for assessing and reporting the classification power of a marker are described. The serious pitfalls of using more traditional methods based on parameters in logistic regression models are illustrated.

Body Mass Index, Cigarette Smoking, and Alcohol Consumption and Cancers of the Oral Cavity, Pharynx, and Larynx: Modeling Odds Ratios in Pooled Case-Control Data

study-specific results, their findings should be interpreted with caution

An examination of male and female odds ratios by BMI, cigarette smoking, and alcohol consumption for cancers of the oral cavity, pharynx, and larynx in pooled data from 15 case-control studies

Greater tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption and lower body mass index (BMI) increase odds ratios (OR) for oral cavity, oropharyngeal, hypopharyngeal, and laryngeal cancers; however, there are no comprehensive sex-specific comparisons of ORs for these factors. We analyzed 2,441 oral cavity (925 women and 1,516 men), 2,297 oropharynx (564 women and 1,733 men), 508 hypopharynx (96 women and 412 men), and 1,740 larynx (237 women and 1,503 men) cases from the INHANCE consortium of 15 head and neck cancer case-control studies. Controls numbered from 7,604 to 13,829 subjects, depending on analysis. Analyses fitted linear-exponential excess ORs models. ORs were increased in underweight (< 18.5 BMI) relative to normal weight (18.5-24.9) and reduced in overweight and obese categories (a parts per thousand yen25 BMI) for all sites and were homogeneous by sex. ORs by smoking and drinking in women compared with men were significantly greater for oropharyngeal cancer (p < 0.01 for both factors), suggestive for hypopharyngeal cancer (p = 0.05 and p = 0.06, respectively), but homogeneous for oral cavity (p = 0.56 and p = 0.64) and laryngeal (p = 0.18 and p = 0.72) cancers. The extent that OR modifications of smoking and drinking by sex for oropharyngeal and, possibly, hypopharyngeal cancers represent true associations, or derive from unmeasured confounders or unobserved sex-related disease subtypes (e.g., human papillomavirus-positive oropharyngeal cancer) remains to be clarified.

Relationship between Neutrophil-To-Lymphocyte Ratio and Electrocardiographic Ischemia Grade in STEMI

Background: Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has been found to be a good predictor of future adverse cardiovascular outcomes in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Changes in the QRS terminal portion have also been associated with adverse outcomes following STEMI. Objective: To investigate the relationship between ECG ischemia grade and NLR in patients presenting with STEMI, in order to determine additional conventional risk factors for early risk stratification. Methods: Patients with STEMI were investigated. The grade of ischemia was analyzed from the ECG performed on admission. White blood cells and subtypes were measured as part of the automated complete blood count (CBC) analysis. Patients were classified into two groups according to the ischemia grade presented on the admission ECG, as grade 2 ischemia (G2I) and grade 3 ischemia (G3I). Results: Patients with G3I had significantly lower mean left ventricular ejection fraction than those in G2I (44.58 ± 7.23 vs. 48.44 ± 7.61, p = 0.001). As expected, in-hospital mortality rate increased proportionally with the increase in ischemia grade (p = 0.036). There were significant differences in percentage of lymphocytes (p = 0.010) and percentage of neutrophils (p = 0.004), and therefore, NLR was significantly different between G2I and G3I patients (p < 0.001). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that only NLR was the independent variable with a significant effect on ECG ischemia grade (odds ratio = 1.254, 95% confidence interval 1.120–1.403, p < 0.001). Conclusion: We found an association between G3I and elevated NLR in patients with STEMI. We believe that such an association might provide an additional prognostic value for risk stratification in patients with STEMI when combined with standardized risk scores.

Body mass index, cigarette smoking, and alcohol consumption and cancers of the oral cavity, pharynx, and larynx: modeling odds ratios in pooled case-control data.

Odds ratios for head and neck cancer increase with greater cigarette and alcohol use and lower body mass index (BMI; weight (kg)/height(2) (m(2))). Using data from the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium, the authors conducted a formal analysis of BMI as a modifier of smoking- and alcohol-related effects. Analysis of never and current smokers included 6,333 cases, while analysis of never drinkers and consumers of < or =10 drinks/day included 8,452 cases. There were 8,000 or more controls, depending on the analysis. Odds ratios for all sites increased with lower BMI, greater smoking, and greater drinking. In polytomous regression, odds ratios for BMI (P = 0.65), smoking (P = 0.52), and drinking (P = 0.73) were homogeneous for oral cavity and pharyngeal cancers. Odds ratios for BMI and drinking were greater for oral cavity/pharyngeal cancer (P < 0.01), while smoking odds ratios were greater for laryngeal cancer (P < 0.01). Lower BMI enhanced smoking- and drinking-related odds ratios for oral cavity/pharyngeal cancer (P < 0.01), while BMI did not modify smoking and drinking odds ratios for laryngeal cancer. The increased odds ratios for all sites with low BMI may suggest related carcinogenic mechanisms; however, BMI modification of smoking and drinking odds ratios for cancer of the oral cavity/pharynx but not larynx cancer suggests additional factors specific to oral cavity/pharynx cancer.

An examination of male and female odds ratios by BMI, cigarette smoking, and alcohol consumption for cancers of the oral cavity, pharynx, and larynx in pooled data from 15 case-control studies.

BACKGROUND: Greater tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption and lower body mass index (BMI) increase odds ratios (OR) for oral cavity, oropharyngeal, hypopharyngeal, and laryngeal cancers; however, there are no comprehensive sex-specific comparisons of ORs for these factors. METHODS: We analyzed 2,441 oral cavity (925 women and 1,516 men), 2,297 oropharynx (564 women and 1,733 men), 508 hypopharynx (96 women and 412 men), and 1,740 larynx (237 women and 1,503 men) cases from the INHANCE consortium of 15 head and neck cancer case-control studies. Controls numbered from 7,604 to 13,829 subjects, depending on analysis. Analyses fitted linear-exponential excess ORs models. RESULTS: ORs were increased in underweight (<18.5 BMI) relative to normal weight (18.5-24.9) and reduced in overweight and obese categories (>/=25 BMI) for all sites and were homogeneous by sex. ORs by smoking and drinking in women compared with men were significantly greater for oropharyngeal cancer (p < 0.01 for both factors), suggestive for hypopharyngeal cancer (p = 0.05 and p = 0.06, respectively), but homogeneous for oral cavity (p = 0.56 and p = 0.64) and laryngeal (p = 0.18 and p = 0.72) cancers. CONCLUSIONS: The extent that OR modifications of smoking and drinking by sex for oropharyngeal and, possibly, hypopharyngeal cancers represent true associations, or derive from unmeasured confounders or unobserved sex-related disease subtypes (e.g., human papillomavirus-positive oropharyngeal cancer) remains to be clarified.

Elevated AST-to-platelet ratio index is associated with increased all-cause mortality among HIV-infected adults in Zambia.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS We investigated the association between significant liver fibrosis, determined by AST-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), and all-cause mortality among HIV-infected patients prescribed antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Zambia METHODS: Among HIV-infected adults who initiated ART, we categorized baseline APRI scores according to established thresholds for significant hepatic fibrosis (APRI ≥1.5) and cirrhosis (APRI ≥2.0). Using multivariable logistic regression we identified risk factors for elevated APRI including demographic characteristics, body mass index (BMI), HIV clinical and immunologic status, and tuberculosis. In the subset tested for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), we investigated the association of hepatitis B virus co-infection with APRI score. Using Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression we determined the association of elevated APRI with death during ART. RESULTS Among 20,308 adults in the analysis cohort, 1,027 (5.1%) had significant liver fibrosis at ART initiation including 616 (3.0%) with cirrhosis. Risk factors for significant fibrosis or cirrhosis included male sex, BMI <18, WHO clinical stage 3 or 4, CD4+ count <200 cells/mm(3) , and tuberculosis. Among the 237 (1.2%) who were tested, HBsAg-positive patients had four times the odds (adjusted odds ratio, 4.15; 95% CI, 1.71-10.04) of significant fibrosis compared HBsAg-negatives. Both significant fibrosis (adjusted hazard ratio 1.41, 95% CI, 1.21-1.64) and cirrhosis (adjusted hazard ratio 1.57, 95% CI, 1.31-1.89) were associated with increased all-cause mortality. CONCLUSION Liver fibrosis may be a risk factor for mortality during ART among HIV-infected individuals in Africa. APRI is an inexpensive and potentially useful test for liver fibrosis in resource-constrained settings. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.