Accountants' working papers,

Mode of access: Internet.

Working papers of the National Commission on Reform of Federal Criminal Laws relating to the Study draft of the new Federal criminal code.

Includes bibliographical references.

Final act and working papers [of the] first meeting, February 21-28, 1955, México, D.F.

Mode of access: Internet.

Working papers.

Mode of access: Internet.

Working papers.

Issued in parts.

National Study of Social Welfare and Rehabilitation Workers, Work, and Organizational Contexts; Working Papers

Mode of access: Internet.

Forecasting and Analyzing Economic Activity with Coincident and Leading Indexes: The Case of Connecticut

We develop coincident and leading employment indexes for the Connecticut economy. Four employment-related variables enter the coincident index while five employment-related variables enter the leading index. The peaks and troughs in the leading index lead the peaks and troughs in the coincident index by an average of 3 and 9 months. Finally, we use the leading index in vector-autoregressive (VAR) and Bayesian vector-autoregressive (BVAR) models to forecast the coincident index, nonfarm employment, and the unemployment rate.

The expiration day effect of indexoptions and index futures on the underlying shares

This paper studies the effect of the expiration day of index options and futures on the trading volume, variance and price of the underlying shares. The data consists of all trades for the underlying shares in the FOX-index for expiration days during the period October 1995 to the mid of yer 1999. The main results seem to support the findings of Kan 2001, i.e. no manipulation on a larger scale. However, some indication of manipulation could be found if certain characteristics are favorable. These characteristics include: a) a large quantity of outstanding futures or at/in the money options contracts, b) there exists shares with high index weight but fairly low trading volume. Lastly, there is some indication that manipulation might be more popular towards the end of the examined time period.

Pricing Index Options with Stochastic Volatility

The objective of this paper is to investigate the pricing accuracy under stochastic volatility where the volatility follows a square root process. The theoretical prices are compared with market price data (the German DAX index options market) by using two different techniques of parameter estimation, the method of moments and implicit estimation by inversion. Standard Black & Scholes pricing is used as a benchmark. The results indicate that the stochastic volatility model with parameters estimated by inversion using the available prices on the preceding day, is the most accurate pricing method of the three in this study and can be considered satisfactory. However, as the same model with parameters estimated using a rolling window (the method of moments) proved to be inferior to the benchmark, the importance of stable and correct estimation of the parameters is evident.

The Physical Strenuousness of Work is Slightly Associated with an Upward Trend in the Body Mass Index

This paper explores the relationship between the physical strenuousness of work and the body mass index in Finland, using individual microdata over the period 1972-2002. The data contain self-reported information about the physical strenuousness of a respondent’s current occupation. Our estimates show that the changes in the physical strenuousness of work can explain around 8% at most of the definite increase in BMI observed over the period. The main reason for this appears to be that the quantitative magnitude of the effect of the physical strenuousness of work on BMI is rather moderate. Hence, according to the point estimates, BMI is only around 1.5% lower when one’s current occupation is physically very demanding and involves lifting and carrying heavy objects compared with sedentary job (reference group of the estimations), other things being equal. Accordingly, the changes in eating habits and the amount of physical activity during leisure time must be the most important contributors to the upward trend in BMI in industrialised countries, but not the changes in the labour market structure.

Índice h de las revistas españolas de Historia según Google Scholar Metrics (2007-2011)

[ES] La aparición de Google Scholar Metrics en abril de 2012 como nuevo sistema de evaluación bibliométrica de revistas científicas a partir del recuento de las citas bibliográficas que estas han recibido en Google Scholar, abre nuevas posibilidades para la medición del impacto de las revistas de humanidades. El objetivo de este trabajo es comprobar el alcance de este producto, a partir del análisis de la cobertura que muestra de las revistas españolas de Historia. Las búsquedas bibliográficas se efectuaron entre el 5 y 6 de diciembre de 2012. Se han identificado 69 revistas, cifra que representa tan solo un 24% de las revistas españolas de Historia. Los valores del índice h alcanzados por las revistas son minúsculos lo que hace que el ranking carezca de poder discriminatorio. Se propone un cambio en el diseño de Google Scholar Metrics para adaptarse a los patrones de producción y citación de la Historia, en particular, y las Humanidades, en general.

Performance Evaluation of the New Connecticut Leading Employment Index Using Lead Profiles and BVAR Models

Dua and Miller (1996) created leading and coincident employment indexes for the state of Connecticut, following Moore's (1981) work at the national level. The performance of the Dua-Miller indexes following the recession of the early 1990s fell short of expectations. This paper performs two tasks. First, it describes the process of revising the Connecticut Coincident and Leading Employment Indexes. Second, it analyzes the statistical properties and performance of the new indexes by comparing the lead profiles of the new and old indexes as well as their out-of-sample forecasting performance, using the Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) method. The new indexes show improved performance in dating employment cycle chronologies. The lead profile test demonstrates that superiority in a rigorous, non-parametric statistic fashion. The mixed evidence on the BVAR forecasting experiments illustrates the truth in the Granger and Newbold (1986) caution that leading indexes properly predict cycle turning points and do not necessarily provide accurate forecasts except at turning points, a view that our results support.

Entrepreneurial profile of the UK in the light of the Global Entrepreneurship and Development Index

In this research summary, we provide a novel look into the entrepreneurial profile of the UK in an international context. We use a new method – the Global Entrepreneurship and Development Index GEDI – to identify the entrepreneurial strengths and weaknesses of the UK economy, as well as to identify potential bottlenecks that hold back the performance of the UK relative to other advanced economies. We perform a Penalty for Bottleneck analysis to identify the bottlenecks in the UK's entrepreneurial profile. We also explore optimal resource allocation for UK's policy for National Systems of Entrepreneurship.