Interaction between production characteristics and postharvest performance and practices for fresh fruit

Significant interactions have been demonstrated between production factors and postharvest quality of fresh fruit. Accordingly, there is an attendant need for adaptive postharvest actions to modulate preharvest effects. The most significant preharvest effects appear to be mediated through mineral nutrition influences on the physical characteristics of fruit. Examples of specific influencers include fertilisers, water availability, rootstock, and crop load effects on fruit quality attributes such as skin colour, susceptibility to diseases and physiological disorders, and fruit nutritional composition. Also, rainfall before and during harvest can markedly affect fruit susceptibility to skin blemishes, physical damage, and diseases. Knowledge of preharvest-postharvest interactions can help determine the basis for variability in postharvest performance and thereby allow refinement of postharvest practices to minimise quality loss after harvest. This knowledge can be utilised in predictive management systems. Such systems can benefit from characterisation of fruit nutritional status, particularly minerals, several months before and/or at harvest to allow informed decisions on postharvest handling and marketing options. Other examples of proactive management practices include adjusting harvesting and packing systems to account for rainfall effects before and/or during harvest. Improved understanding of preharvest-postharvest interactions is contributing to the delivery of consistently higher quality of fruit to consumers. This paper focuses on the state of knowledge for sub-tropical and tropical fruits, in particular avocado and mango.

Interaction between production characteristics and postharvest performance and practices for fresh fruit

Significant interactions have been demonstrated between production factors and postharvest quality of fresh fruit. Accordingly, there is an attendant need for adaptive postharvest actions to modulate preharvest effects. The most significant preharvest effects appear to be mediated through mineral nutrition influences on the physical characteristics of fruit. Examples of specific influencers include fertilisers, water availability, rootstock, and crop load effects on fruit quality attributes such as skin colour, susceptibility to diseases and physiological disorders, and fruit nutritional composition. Also, rainfall before and during harvest can markedly affect fruit susceptibility to skin blemishes, physical damage, and diseases. Knowledge of preharvest-postharvest interactions can help determine the basis for variability in postharvest performance and thereby allow refinement of postharvest practices to minimise quality loss after harvest. This knowledge can be utilised in predictive management systems. Such systems can benefit from characterisation of fruit nutritional status, particularly minerals, several months before and/or at harvest to allow informed decisions on postharvest handling and marketing options. Other examples of proactive management practices include adjusting harvesting and packing systems to account for rainfall effects before and/or during harvest. Improved understanding of preharvest-postharvest interactions is contributing to the delivery of consistently higher quality of fruit to consumers. This paper focuses on the state of knowledge for sub-tropical and tropical fruits, in particular avocado and mango.

Urban energy fluxes in Helsinki and their high frequency spectral corrections

Inadvertent climate modification has led to an increase in urban temperatures compared to the surrounding rural area. The main reason for the temperature rise is the altered energy portioning of input net radiation to heat storage and sensible and latent heat fluxes in addition to the anthropogenic heat flux. The heat storage flux and anthropogenic heat flux have not yet been determined for Helsinki and they are not directly measurable. To the contrary, turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat in addition to net radiation can be measured, and the anthropogenic heat flux together with the heat storage flux can be solved as a residual. As a result, all inaccuracies in the determination of the energy balance components propagate to the residual term and special attention must be paid to the accurate determination of the components. One cause of error in the turbulent fluxes is the fluctuation attenuation at high frequencies which can be accounted for by high frequency spectral corrections. The aim of this study is twofold: to assess the relevance of high frequency corrections to water vapor fluxes and to assess the temporal variation of the energy fluxes. Turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat have been measured at SMEAR III station, Helsinki, since December 2005 using the eddy covariance technique. In addition, net radiation measurements have been ongoing since July 2007. The used calculation methods in this study consist of widely accepted eddy covariance data post processing methods in addition to Fourier and wavelet analysis. The high frequency spectral correction using the traditional transfer function method is highly dependent on relative humidity and has an 11% effect on the latent heat flux. This method is based on an assumption of spectral similarity which is shown not to be valid. A new correction method using wavelet analysis is thus initialized and it seems to account for the high frequency variation deficit. Anyhow, the resulting wavelet correction remains minimal in contrast to the traditional transfer function correction. The energy fluxes exhibit a behavior characteristic for urban environments: the energy input is channeled to sensible heat as latent heat flux is restricted by water availability. The monthly mean residual of the energy balance ranges from 30 Wm-2 in summer to -35 Wm-2 in winter meaning a heat storage to the ground during summer. Furthermore, the anthropogenic heat flux is approximated to be 50 Wm-2 during winter when residential heating is important.

Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change

Abstract The paper evaluates the effect of future climate change (as per the CSIRO Mk3.5 A1FI future climate projection) on cotton yield in Southern Queensland and Northern NSW, eastern Australia by using of the biophysical simulation model APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator). The simulations of cotton production show that changes in the influential meteorological parameters caused by climate change would lead to decreased future cotton yields without the effect of CO2 fertilisation. By 2050 the yields would decrease by 17 %. Including the effects of CO2 fertilisation ameliorates the effect of decreased water availability and yields increase by 5.9 % by 2030, but then decrease by 3.6 % in 2050. Importantly, it was necessary to increase irrigation amounts by almost 50 % to maintain adequate soil moisture levels. The effect of CO2 was found to have an important positive impact of the yield in spite of deleterious climate change. This implies that the physiological response of plants to climate change needs to be thoroughly understood to avoid making erroneous projections of yield and potentially stifling investment or increasing risk.

Effect of crop establishment methods and weed control treatments on weed management, and rice yield

Lower water availability coupled with labor shortage has resulted in the increasing inability of growers to cultivate puddled transplanted rice (PTR). A field study was conducted in the wet season of 2012 and dry season of 2013 to evaluate the performance of five rice establishment methods and four weed control treatments on weed management, and rice yield. Grass weeds were higher in dry-seeded rice (DSR) as compared to PTR and nonpuddled transplanted rice (NPTR). The highest total weed density (225-256plantsm-2) and total weed biomass (315-501gm-2) were recorded in DSR while the lowest (102-129plantsm-2 and 75-387gm-2) in PTR. Compared with the weedy plots, the treatment pretilachlor followed by fenoxaprop plus ethoxysulfuron plus 2,4-D provided excellent weed control. This treatment, however, had a poor performance in NPTR. In both seasons, herbicide efficacy was better in DSR and wet-seeded rice. PTR and DSR produced the maximum rice grain yields. The weed-free plots and herbicide treatments produced 84-614% and 58-504% higher rice grain yield, respectively, than the weedy plots in 2012, and a similar trend was observed in 2013.

Methane in Australian agriculture: current emissions, sources and sinks, and potential mitigation strategies

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas with a global warming potential ∼28 times that of carbon dioxide. Consequently, sources and sinks that influence the concentration of methane in the atmosphere are of great interest. In Australia, agriculture is the primary source of anthropogenic methane emissions (60.4% of national emissions, or 3260kt-1methaneyear-1, between 1990 and 2011), and cropping and grazing soils represent Australia's largest potential terrestrial methane sink. As of 2011, the expansion of agricultural soils, which are ∼70% less efficient at consuming methane than undisturbed soils, to 59% of Australia's land mass (456Mha) and increasing livestock densities in northern Australia suggest negative implications for national methane flux. Plant biomass burning does not appear to have long-term negative effects on methane flux unless soils are converted for agricultural purposes. Rice cultivation contributes marginally to national methane emissions and this fluctuates depending on water availability. Significant available research into biological, geochemical and agronomic factors has been pertinent for developing effective methane mitigation strategies. We discuss methane-flux feedback mechanisms in relation to climate change drivers such as temperature, atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane concentrations, precipitation and extreme weather events. Future research should focus on quantifying the role of Australian cropping and grazing soils as methane sinks in the national methane budget, linking biodiversity and activity of methane-cycling microbes to environmental factors, and quantifying how a combination of climate change drivers will affect total methane flux in these systems.

Identifying the Function of Sorghum's Drought Tolerance Stay-Green QTL

The goal of this research is to understand the function of allelic variation of genes underpinning the stay-green drought adaptation trait in sorghum in order to enhance yield in water-limited environments. Stay-green, a delayed leaf senescence phenotype in sorghum, is primarily an emergent consequence of the improved balance between the supply and demand of water. Positional and functional fine-mapping of candidate genes associated with stay-green in sorghum is the focus of an international research partnership between Australian (UQ/DAFFQ) and US (Texas A&M University) scientists. Stay-green was initially mapped to four chromosomal regions (Stg1, Stg2, Stg3, and Stg4) by a number of research groups in the US and Australia. Physiological dissection of near-isolines containing single introgressions of Stg QTL (Stg1-4) indicate that these QTL reduce water demand before flowering by constricting the size of the canopy, thereby increasing water availability during grain filling and, ultimately, grain yield. Stg and root angle QTL are also co-located and, together with crop water use data, suggest the role of roots in the stay-green phenomenon. Candidate genes have been identified in Stg1-4, including genes from the PIN family of auxin efflux carriers in Stg1 and Stg2, with 10 of 11 PIN genes in sorghum co-locating with Stg QTL. Modified gene expression in some of these PIN candidates in the stay-green compared with the senescent types has been found in preliminary RNA expression profiling studies. Further proof-of-function studies are underway, including comparative genomics, SNP analysis to assess diversity at candidate genes, reverse genetics and transformation.

High-throughput Phenotyping of Wheat Seminal Root Traits in a Breeding Context

Water availability is a major limiting factor for wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in rain-fed agricultural systems worldwide. Root architecture has important functional implications for the timing and extent of soil water extraction, yet selection for root traits in wheat breeding programs has been largely limited due to the lack of suitable phenotyping methods. The aim of this research was to develop a low-cost high-throughput phenotyping method to facilitate selection for desirable root traits. We developed a method to assess ‘seminal root angle’ and ‘seminal root number’ in seedlings – two proxy traits associated to root architecture of mature wheat plants (1). The method involves measuring the angle between the first pair of seminal roots and the number of roots of wheat seedlings grown in transparent pots (Figure 1). Images captured at 5 to 10 days after sowing are analyzed to calculate seminal root angle and number. Performing this technique under “speed breeding” conditions (plants grown at a density of 600 plants / m2, under controlled temperature and constant light) allows the selection based on the desired root traits of up to 5 consecutive generations within 12 months. Alternatively, when focusing only on germplasm screening, up to 52 successive phenotypic assays can be conducted within 12 months. This approach has been shown to be highly reproducible, it requires little resource (time, space, and labour) and can be used to rapidly enrich breeding populations with desirable alleles for narrow root angle and a high number of seminal roots to indirectly target the selection of deeper root system with higher branching at depth. Such root characteristics are highly desirable in wheat to cope with the climate model projections, especially in summer rainfall dominant regions including some Australian, Indian, South American and African cropping regions, where winter crops mainly rely on deep stored water.

Genomic regions influencing seminal root traits in barley

Water availability is a major limiting factor for crop production, making drought adaptation and its many component traits a desirable attribute of plant cultivars. Previous studies in cereal crops indicate that root traits expressed at early plant developmental stages, such as seminal root angle and root number, are associated with water extraction at different depths. Here, we conducted the first study to map seminal root traits in barley (Hordeum vulgare L.). Using a recently developed high-throughput phenotyping method, a panel of 30 barley genotypes and a doubled-haploid (DH) population (ND24260 × 'Flagship') comprising 330 lines genotyped with diversity array technology (DArT) markers were evaluated for seminal root angle (deviation from vertical) and root number under controlled environmental conditions. A high degree of phenotypic variation was observed in the panel of 30 genotypes: 13.5 to 82.2 and 3.6 to 6.9° for root angle and root number, respectively. A similar range was observed in the DH population: 16.4 to 70.5 and 3.6 to 6.5° for root angle and number, respectively. Seven quantitative trait loci (QTL) for seminal root traits (root angle, two QTL; root number, five QTL) were detected in the DH population. A major QTL influencing both root angle and root number (RAQ2/RNQ4) was positioned on chromosome 5HL. Across-species analysis identified 10 common genes underlying root trait QTL in barley, wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), and sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench]. Here, we provide insight into seminal root phenotypes and provide a first look at the genetics controlling these traits in barley.

Community-based Natural Resource Management: Issues and Cases from South Asia

Community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) is the joint management of natural resources by a community based on a community strategy, through a participatory mechanism involving all legitimate stakeholders. The approach is community-based in that the communities managing the resources have the legal rights, the local institutions and the economic incentives to take substantial responsibility for sustained use of these resources. This implies that the community plays an active role in the management of natural resources, not because it asserts sole ownership over them, but because it can claim participation in their management and benefits for practical and technical reasons1–4. This approach emerged as the dominant conservation concept in the late 1970s and early 1980s, of the disillusionment with the developmental state. Governments across South and South East Asia, Africa and Latin America have adopted and implemented CBNRM in various ways, viz. through sectoral programmes such as forestry, irrigation or wildlife management, multisectoral programmes such as watershed development and efforts towards political devolution. In India, the principle of decentralization through ‘gram swaraj’ was introduced by Mahatma Gandhi. The 73rd and 74th constitution amendments in 1992 gave impetus to the decentralized planning at panchayat levels through the creation of a statutory three-level local self-government structure5,6. The strength of this book is that it includes chapters by CBNRM advocates based on six seemingly innovative initiatives being implemented by nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) in ecologically vulnerable regions of South Asia: two in the Himalayas (watershed development programme in Lingmutechhu, Bhuthan and Thalisain tehsil, Paudi Grahwal District, Uttarakhand), three in semi-arid parts of western India (watershed development in Hivre Bazar, Maharashtra and Nathugadh village, Gujarat and water-harvesting structures in Gopalapura, Rajasthan) and one in the flood-plains of the Brahmaputra–Jamuna (Char land, Galibanda and Jamalpur districts, Bangladesh). Watersheds in semi-arid regions fall in the low-rainfall region (500–700 mm) and suffer the vagaries of drought 2–3 years in every five-year cycle. In all these locations, the major occupation is agriculture, most of which is rainfed or dry. The other two cases (in Uttarakhand) fall in the Himalayan region (temperate/sub-temperate climate), which has witnessed extensive deforestation in the last century and is now considered as one of the most vulnerable locations in South Asia. Terraced agriculture is being practised in these locations for a long time. The last case (Gono Chetona) falls in the Brahmaputra–Jamuna charlands which are the most ecologically vulnerable regions in the sub-continent with constantly changing landscape. Agriculture and livestock rearing are the main occupations, and there is substantial seasonal emigration for wage labour by the adult males. River erosion and floods force the people to adopt a semi-migratory lifestyle. The book attempts to analyse the potential as well as limitations of NGOdriven CBNRM endeavours across agroclimatic regions of South Asia with emphasis on four intrinsically linked normative concerns, namely sustainability, livelihood enhancement, equity and demographic decentralization in chapters 2–7. Comparative analysis of these case studies done in chapter 8, highlights the issues that require further research while portraying the strengths and limits of NGO-driven CBNRM. In Hivre Bazar, the post-watershed intervention scenario is such that farmers often grow three crops in a year – kharif bajra, rabi jowar and summer vegetable crops. Productivity has increased in the dry lands due to improvement in soil moisture levels. The revival of johads in Gopalpura has led to the proliferation of wheat and increased productivity. In Lingmuteychhu, productivity gains have also arisen, but more due to the introduction of both local and high-yielding, new varieties as opposed to increased water availability. In the case of Gono Chetona, improvements have come due to diversification of agriculture; for example, the promotion of vegetable gardens. CBNRM interventions in most cases have also led to new avenues of employment and income generation. The synthesis shows that CBNRM efforts have made significant contributions to livelihood enhancement and only limited gains in terms of collective action for sustainable and equitable access to benefits and continuing resource use, and in terms of democratic decentralization, contrary to the objectives of the programme. Livelihood benefits include improvements in availability of livelihood support resources (fuelwood, fodder, drinking water), increased productivity (including diversification of cropping pattern) in agriculture and allied activities, and new sources of livelihood. However, NGO-driven CBNRM has not met its goal of providing ‘alternative’ forms of ‘development’ due to impediments of state policy, short-sighted vision of implementers and confrontation with the socio-ecological reality of the region, which almost always are that of fragmented communities (or communities in flux) with unequal dependence and access to land and other natural resources along with great gender imbalances. Appalling, however, is the general absence of recognition of the importance of and the will to explore practical ways to bring about equitable resource transfer or benefit-sharing and the consequent innovations in this respect that are evident in the pioneering community initiatives such as pani panchayat, etc. Pertaining to the gains on the ecological sustainability front, Hivre Bazar and Thalisain initiatives through active participation of villagers have made significant regeneration of the water table within the village, and mechanisms such as ban on number of bore wells, the regulation of cropping pattern, restrictions on felling of trees and free grazing to ensure that in the future, the groundwater is neither over-exploited nor its recharge capability impaired. Nevertheless, the longterm sustainability of the interventions in the case of Ghoga and Gopalpura initiatives as the focus has been mostly on regeneration of resources, and less on regulating the use of regenerated resources. Further, in Lingmuteychhu and Gono Chetona, the interventions are mainly household-based and the focus has been less explicit on ecological components. The studies demonstrate the livelihood benefits to all of the interventions and significant variation in achievements with reference to sustainability, equity and democratic decentralization depending on the level and extent of community participation apart from the vision of implementers, strategy (or nature of intervention shaped by the question of community formation), the centrality of community formation and also the State policy. Case studies show that the influence of State policy is multi-faceted and often contradictory in nature. This necessitates NGOs to engage with the State in a much more purposeful way than in an ‘autonomous space’. Thus the role of NGOs in CBNRM is complementary, wherein they provide innovative experiments that the State can learn. This helps in achieving the goals of CBNRM through democratic decentralization. The book addresses the vital issues related to natural resource management and interests of the community. Key topics discussed throughout the book are still at the centre of the current debate. This compilation consists of well-written chapters based on rigorous synthesis of CBNRM case studies, which will serve as good references for students, researchers and practitioners in the years to come.

Assessment of hydrologic impacts of climate change in Tunga-Bhadra river basin, India with HEC-HMS and SDSM

Climate change would significantly affect many hydrologic systems, which in turn would affect the water availability, runoff, and the flow in rivers. This study evaluates the impacts of possible future climate change scenarios on the hydrology of the catchment area of the TungaBhadra River, upstream of the Tungabhadra dam. The Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modeling System version 3.4 (HEC-HMS 3.4) is used for the hydrological modelling of the study area. Linear-regression-based Statistical DownScaling Model version 4.2 (SDSM 4.2) is used to downscale the daily maximum and minimum temperature, and daily precipitation in the four sub-basins of the study area. The large-scale climate variables for the A2 and B2 scenarios obtained from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 are used. After model calibration and testing of the downscaling procedure, the hydrological model is run for the three future periods: 20112040, 20412070, and 20712099. The impacts of climate change on the basin hydrology are assessed by comparing the present and future streamflow and the evapotranspiration estimates. Results of the water balance study suggest increasing precipitation and runoff and decreasing actual evapotranspiration losses over the sub-basins in the study area.

Impact of compost, vermicompost and biochar on soil fertility, maize yield and soil erosion in Northern Vietnam: A three year mesocosm experiment

Compost, vermicompost and biochar amendments are thought to improve soil quality and plant yield. However, little is known about their long-term impact on crop yield and the environment in tropical agro-ecosystems. In this study we investigated the effect of organic amendments (buffalo manure, compost and verrnicompost) and biochar (applied alone or with vermicompost) on plant yield, soil fertility, soil erosion and water dynamics in a degraded Acrisol in Vietnam. Maize growth and yield, as well as weed growth, were examined for three years in terrestrial mesocosms under natural rainfall. Maize yield and growth showed high inter-annual variability depending on the organic amendment. Vermicompost improved maize growth and yield but its effect was rather small and was only significant when water availability was limited (year 2). This suggests that vermicompost could be a promising substrate for improving the resistance of agrosystems to water stress. When the vermicompost biochar mixture was applied, further growth and yield improvements were recorded in some cases. When applied alone, biochar had a positive influence on maize yield and growth, thus confirming its interest for improving long-term soil productivity. All organic amendments reduced water runoff, soil detachment and NH4+ and NO3- transfer to water. These effects were more significant with vermicompost than with buffalo manure and compost, highlighting that the beneficial influence of vermicompost is not limited to its influence on plant yield. In addition, this study showed for the first time that the combination of vermicompost and biochar may not only improve plant productivity but also reduce the negative impact of agriculture on water quality. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stationary Eddies and Zonal Variations of the Global Hydrological Cycle in a Changing Climate

This thesis advances our physical understanding of the sensitivity of the hydrological cycle to global warming. Specifically, it focuses on changes in the longitudinal (zonal) variation of precipitation minus evaporation (P - E), which is predominantly controlled by planetary-scale stationary eddies. By studying idealized general circulation model (GCM) experiments with zonally varying boundary conditions, this thesis examines the mechanisms controlling the strength of stationary-eddy circulations and their role in the hydrological cycle. The overarching goal of this research is to understand the cause of changes in regional P - E with global warming. An understanding of such changes can be useful for impact studies focusing on water availability, ecosystem management, and flood risk.

Based on a moisture-budget analysis of ERA-Interim data, we establish an approximation for zonally anomalous P - E in terms of surface moisture content and stationary-eddy vertical motion in the lower troposphere. Part of the success of this approximation comes from our finding that transient-eddy moisture fluxes partially cancel the effect of stationary-eddy moisture advection, allowing divergent circulations to dominate the moisture budget. The lower-tropospheric vertical motion is related to horizontal motion in stationary eddies by Sverdrup and Ekman balance. These moisture- and vorticity-budget balances also hold in idealized and comprehensive GCM simulations across a range of climates.

By examining climate changes in the idealized and comprehensive GCM simulations, we are able to show the utility of the vertical motion P - E approximation for splitting changes in zonally anomalous P - E into thermodynamic and dynamic components. Shifts in divergent stationary-eddy circulations dominate changes in zonally anomalous P - E. This limits the local utility of the "wet gets wetter, dry gets drier” idea, where existing P - E patterns are amplified with warming by the increase in atmospheric moisture content, with atmospheric circulations held fixed. The increase in atmospheric moisture content manifests instead in an increase in the amplitude of the zonally anomalous hydrological cycle as measured by the zonal variance of P - E. However, dynamic changes, particularly the slowdown of divergent stationary-eddy circulations, limit the strengthening of the zonally anomalous hydrological cycle. In certain idealized cases, dynamic changes are even strong enough to reverse the tendency towards "wet gets wetter, dry gets drier” with warming.

Motivated by the importance of stationary-eddy vertical velocities in the moisture budget analysis, we examine controls on the amplitude of stationary eddies across a wide range of climates in an idealized GCM with simple topographic and ocean-heating zonal asymmetries. An analysis of the thermodynamic equation in the vicinity of topographic forcing reveals the importance of on-slope surface winds, the midlatitude isentropic slope, and latent heating in setting the amplitude of stationary waves. The response of stationary eddies to climate change is determined primarily by the strength of zonal surface winds hitting the mountain. The sensitivity of stationary-eddies to this surface forcing increases with climate change as the slope of midlatitude isentropes decreases. However, latent heating also plays an important role in damping the stationary-eddy response, and this damping becomes stronger with warming as the atmospheric moisture content increases. We find that the response of tropical overturning circulations forced by ocean heat-flux convergence is described by changes in the vertical structure of moist static energy and deep convection. This is used to derive simple scalings for the Walker circulation strength that capture the monotonic decrease with warming found in our idealized simulations.

Through the work of this thesis, the advances made in understanding the amplitude of stationary-waves in a changing climate can be directly applied to better understand and predict changes in the zonally anomalous hydrological cycle.

Variabilidade Climática, Disponibilidade Hídrica e ETA Guandu: Uma Análise Qualitativa de Vulnerabilidade.

A ETA Guandu é de vital importância para o estado do Rio de Janeiro por ser responsável pelo abastecimento de 8,5 milhões de pessoas na Região Metropolitana. Este trabalho tem como objetivo efetuar uma análise qualitativa de sua vulnerabilidade, em relação à qualidade e quantidade de água captada, perante diversos fatores de estresse, visando dimensionar a importância da variabilidade climática na composição de sua vulnerabilidade. Adotou-se o conceito de vulnerabilidade como função da exposição (grau em que um sistema experimenta estresses), da sensibilidade (grau em que um sistema é afetado pelo estresse) e capacidade adaptativa (capacidade de um sistema de se ajustar, moderar ou lidar com as conseqüências de um estresse). Dessa forma, foi possível desenvolver uma metodologia de análise qualitativa de vulnerabilidade, específica ao caso da ETA Guandu, perante quatro fatores de estresse considerados como os mais determinantes para a vulnerabilidade atual: i) variabilidade climática; ii) transposição; iii) condições ambientais e qualidade da água e iv) acidentes ambientais. Os resultados evidenciaram que o maior grau de vulnerabilidade da ETA Guandu se relaciona à transposição, já que diversas partes de sua infraestrutura não dispõem de ações de manutenção preventiva. A vulnerabilidade devido às condições ambientais é também intensa, principalmente a turbidez no período chuvoso; entre 2000 e 2010, a ETA Guandu foi parcialmente paralisada 22 vezes em função do grande aporte de sedimentos. Não identificamos nenhum registro de paralisação total da ETA Guandu em função de acidentes ambientais, embora algumas vezes estes tenham imposto a paralisação da transposição. O componente variabilidade climática (intensificação de eventos hidrológicos extremos) revelou-se como o estressor menos determinante da vulnerabilidade atual.

Dinâmica de colonização de uma planície hipersalina por espécies de mangue em Guaratiba, RJ

Alterações na frequência e amplitude das inundações pelas marés são fatores reguladores da dinâmica das florestas de mangue. Tais alterações podem estar relacionadas à elevação do nível médio relativo do mar (NMRM), que vem sendo atribuída como fator de impacto decorrente das mudanças climáticas globais atuando sobre os ecossistemas costeiros. Durante a década de 90, o Núcleo de Estudos em Manguezais da Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro observou, em Guaratiba (RJ), um processo de colonização de uma planície hipersalina por espécies de mangue, e começou a monitorá-lo. Após seis anos os dados indicaram a consolidação da colonização e juntamente com o desenvolvimento de outros estudos neste sistema, a elevação do NMRM foi atribuída como principal causa deste processo. Os dados gerados por tal monitoramento, de 1998 até o ano de 2011, constituem a base de dados da presente dissertação, que teve como objetivo analisar o desenvolvimento do processo de colonização e verificar suas relações com fatores meteorológicos locais. No ano de 1998 foram demarcadas seis parcelas justapostas, no sentido floresta-planície hipersalina, até onde era percebida a presença das plantas de mangue. Todos os indivíduos foram identificados com etiquetas numeradas e tiveram suas alturas medidas ao longo de todo monitoramento, da mesma forma que novos indivíduos (recrutas). Quando recrutas eram encontrados em áreas mais distantes da floresta, novas parcelas eram incluídas no monitoramento. No ano de 2011, a colonização já havia avançado 75 m de distância da floresta e as treze parcelas monitoradas indicaram diferentes estágios sucessionais: mais próximas à floresta apresentam consolidação do processo de colonização, com redução de densidade e maior desenvolvimento estrutural; intermediárias, com altas densidades, encontra-se em fase menos avançada da colonização; mais externas caracterizam o início da colonização da área por poucos indivíduos. Notou-se, ainda, que o processo de colonização se dá por meio do estabelecimento de coortes, que demonstram variabilidade nos padrões de desenvolvimento estrutural ao longo dos anos (densidade, distribuição e taxa de crescimento), relacionada às condições ambientais distintas (padrões climatológicos). Quanto à disponibilidade hídrica (entre 1985 e 2011), Guaratiba apresentou predomínio de déficit hídrico, com tendência de amenização ao final do período. Períodos de maior disponibilidade de água no sistema coincidiram com marcação de novas parcelas, bem como com picos de recrutamento e elevadas taxas de crescimento das coortes. Assim, foi possível observar que o desenvolvimento das coortes esteve relacionado às condições de disponibilidade de espaço e luz, além de responderem aos processos meteorológicos, relacionados à disponibilidade de água na região.