Changes in species composition in alpine snowbeds with climate change inferred from small-scale spatial patterns

Alpine snowbeds are characterised by a very short growing season. However, the length of the snow-free period is increasingly prolonged due to climate change, so that snowbeds become susceptible to invasions from neighbouring alpine meadow communities. We hypothesised that spatial distribution of species generated by plant interactions may indicate whether snowbed species will coexist with or will be out-competed by invading alpine species – spatial aggregation or segregation will point to coexistence or competitive exclusion, respectively. We tested this hypothesis in snowbeds of the Swiss Alps using the variance ratio statistics. We focused on the relationships between dominant snowbed species, subordinate snowbed species, and potentially invading alpine grassland species. Subordinate snowbed species were generally spatially aggregated with each other, but were segregated from alpine grassland species. Competition between alpine grassland and subordinate snowbed species may have caused this segregation. Segregation between these species groups increased with earlier snowmelt, suggesting an increasing importance of competition with climate change. Further, a dominant snowbed species (Alchemilla pentaphyllea) was spatially aggregated with subordinate snowbed species, while two other dominants (Gnaphalium supinum and Salix herbacea) showed aggregated patterns with alpine grassland species. These dominant species are known to show distinct microhabitat preferences suggesting the existence of hidden microhabitats with different susceptibility to invaders. These results allow us to suggest that alpine snowbed areas are likely to be reduced as a consequence of climate change and that invading species from nearby alpine grasslands could outcompete subordinate snowbed species. On the other hand, microhabitats dominated by Gnaphalium or Salix seem to be particularly prone to invasions by non-snowbed species.

Cost-effectiveness of point-of-care viral load monitoring of antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings: mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND Monitoring of HIV viral load in patients on combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) is not generally available in resource-limited settings. We examined the cost-effectiveness of qualitative point-of-care viral load tests (POC-VL) in sub-Saharan Africa. DESIGN Mathematical model based on longitudinal data from the Gugulethu and Khayelitsha township ART programmes in Cape Town, South Africa. METHODS Cohorts of patients on ART monitored by POC-VL, CD4 cell count or clinically were simulated. Scenario A considered the more accurate detection of treatment failure with POC-VL only, and scenario B also considered the effect on HIV transmission. Scenario C further assumed that the risk of virologic failure is halved with POC-VL due to improved adherence. We estimated the change in costs per quality-adjusted life-year gained (incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, ICERs) of POC-VL compared with CD4 and clinical monitoring. RESULTS POC-VL tests with detection limits less than 1000 copies/ml increased costs due to unnecessary switches to second-line ART, without improving survival. Assuming POC-VL unit costs between US$5 and US$20 and detection limits between 1000 and 10,000 copies/ml, the ICER of POC-VL was US$4010-US$9230 compared with clinical and US$5960-US$25540 compared with CD4 cell count monitoring. In Scenario B, the corresponding ICERs were US$2450-US$5830 and US$2230-US$10380. In Scenario C, the ICER ranged between US$960 and US$2500 compared with clinical monitoring and between cost-saving and US$2460 compared with CD4 monitoring. CONCLUSION The cost-effectiveness of POC-VL for monitoring ART is improved by a higher detection limit, by taking the reduction in new HIV infections into account and assuming that failure of first-line ART is reduced due to targeted adherence counselling.

Change Detection Memory in Rhesus Monkeys and Humans

Visual short-term memory (VSTM) is the storage of visual information over a brief time period (usually a few seconds or less). Over the past decade, the most popular task for studying VSTM in humans has been the change detection task. In this task, subjects must remember several visual items per trial in order to identify a change following a brief delay interval. Results from change detection tasks have shown that VSTM is limited; humans are only able to accurately hold a few visual items in mind over a brief delay. However, there has been much debate in regard to the structure or cause of these limitations. The two most popular conceptualizations of VSTM limitations in recent years have been the fixed-capacity model and the continuous-resource model. The fixed-capacity model proposes a discrete limit on the total number of visual items that can be stored in VSTM. The continuous-resource model proposes a continuous-resource that can be allocated among many visual items in VSTM, with noise in item memory increasing as the number of items to be remembered increases. While VSTM is far from being completely understood in humans, even less is known about VSTM in non-human animals, including the rhesus monkey (Macaca mulatta). Given that rhesus monkeys are the premier medical model for humans, it is important to understand their VSTM if they are to contribute to understanding human memory. The primary goals of this study were to train and test rhesus monkeys and humans in change detection in order to directly compare VSTM between the two species and explore the possibility that direct species comparison might shed light on the fixed-capacity vs. continuous-resource models of VSTM. The comparative results suggest qualitatively similar VSTM for the two species through converging evidence supporting the continuous-resource model and thereby establish rhesus monkeys as a good system for exploring neurophysiological correlates of VSTM.

Performance of HBsAg point-of-care tests for detection of diagnostic escape-variants in clinical samples

BACKGROUND Hepatitis B viruses (HBV) harboring mutations in the a-determinant of the Hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) are associated with reduced reactivity of HBsAg assays. OBJECTIVES To evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of three HBsAg point-of-care tests for the detection of HBsAg of viruses harboring HBsAg mutations. STUDY DESIGN A selection of 50 clinical plasma samples containing HBV with HBsAg mutations was used to evaluate the performance of three HBsAg point-of-care tests (Vikia(®), bioMérieux, Marcy-L'Étoile, France. Alere Determine HBsAg™, Iverness Biomedical Innovations, Köln, Germany. Quick Profile™, LumiQuick Diagnostics, California, USA) and compared to the ARCHITECT HBsAg Qualitative(®) assay (Abbott Laboratories, Sligo, Ireland). RESULTS The sensitivity of the point-of-care tests ranged from 98% to 100%. The only false-negative result occurred using the Quick Profile™ assay with a virus harboring a D144A mutation. CONCLUSIONS The evaluated point-of-care tests revealed an excellent sensitivity in detecting HBV samples harboring HBsAg mutations.

Impairments of peripheral motion change detection during smooth pursuit eye movements

Introduction: In team sports the ability to use peripheral vision is essential to track a number of players and the ball. By using eye-tracking devices it was found that players either use fixations and saccades to process information on the pitch or use smooth pursuit eye movements (SPEM) to keep track of single objects (Schütz, Braun, & Gegenfurtner, 2011). However, it is assumed that peripheral vision can be used best when the gaze is stable while it is unknown whether motion changes can be equally well detected when SPEM are used especially because contrast sensitivity is reduced during SPEM (Schütz, Delipetkose, Braun, Kerzel, & Gegenfurtner, 2007). Therefore, peripheral motion change detection will be examined by contrasting a fixation condition with a SPEM condition. Methods: 13 participants (7 male, 6 female) were presented with a visual display consisting of 15 white and 1 red square. Participants were instructed to follow the red square with their eyes and press a button as soon as a white square begins to move. White square movements occurred either when the red square was still (fixation condition) or moving in a circular manner with 6 °/s (pursuit condition). The to-be-detected white square movements varied in eccentricity (4 °, 8 °, 16 °) and speed (1 °/s, 2 °/s, 4 °/s) while movement time of white squares was constant at 500 ms. 180 events should be detected in total. A Vicon-integrated eye-tracking system and a button press (1000 Hz) was used to control for eye-movements and measure detection rates and response times. Response times (ms) and missed detections (%) were measured as dependent variables and analysed with a 2 (manipulation) x 3 (eccentricity) x 3 (speed) ANOVA with repeated measures on all factors. Results: Significant response time effects were found for manipulation, F(1,12) = 224.31, p < .01, ηp2 = .95, eccentricity, F(2,24) = 56.43; p < .01, ηp2 = .83, and the interaction between the two factors, F(2,24) = 64.43; p < .01, ηp2 = .84. Response times increased as a function of eccentricity for SPEM only and were overall higher than in the fixation condition. Results further showed missed events effects for manipulation, F(1,12) = 37.14; p < .01, ηp2 = .76, eccentricity, F(2,24) = 44.90; p < .01, ηp2 = .79, the interaction between the two factors, F(2,24) = 39.52; p < .01, ηp2 = .77 and the three-way interaction manipulation x eccentricity x speed, F(2,24) = 3.01; p = .03, ηp2 = .20. While less than 2% of events were missed on average in the fixation condition as well as at 4° and 8° eccentricity in the SPEM condition, missed events increased for SPEM at 16 ° eccentricity with significantly more missed events in the 4 °/s speed condition (1 °/s: M = 34.69, SD = 20.52; 2 °/s: M = 33.34, SD = 19.40; 4 °/s: M = 39.67, SD = 19.40). Discussion: It could be shown that using SPEM impairs the ability to detect peripheral motion changes at the far periphery and that fixations not only help to detect these motion changes but also to respond faster. Due to high temporal constraints especially in team sports like soccer or basketball, fast reaction are necessary for successful anticipation and decision making. Thus, it is advised to anchor gaze at a specific location if peripheral changes (e.g. movements of other players) that require a motor response have to be detected. In contrast, SPEM should only be used if a single object, like the ball in cricket or baseball, is necessary for a successful motor response. References: Schütz, A. C., Braun, D. I., & Gegenfurtner, K. R. (2011). Eye movements and perception: A selective review. Journal of Vision, 11, 1-30. Schütz, A. C., Delipetkose, E., Braun, D. I., Kerzel, D., & Gegenfurtner, K. R. (2007). Temporal contrast sensitivity during smooth pursuit eye movements. Journal of Vision, 7, 1-15.

An exploratory analysis of variance and volatility in epileptic electroencephalograms

The electroencephalogram (EEG) is a physiological time series that measures electrical activity at different locations in the brain, and plays an important role in epilepsy research. Exploring the variance and/or volatility may yield insights for seizure prediction, seizure detection and seizure propagation/dynamics.^ Maximal Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transforms (MODWTs) and ARMA-GARCH models were used to determine variance and volatility characteristics of 66 channels for different states of an epileptic EEG – sleep, awake, sleep-to-awake and seizure. The wavelet variances, changes in wavelet variances and volatility half-lives for the four states were compared for possible differences between seizure and non-seizure channels.^ The half-lives of two of the three seizure channels were found to be shorter than all of the non-seizure channels, based on 95% CIs for the pre-seizure and awake signals. No discernible patterns were found the wavelet variances of the change points for the different signals. ^

Crete fault scarp point cloud data

This paper assesses the along strike variation of active bedrock fault scarps using long range terrestrial laser scanning (t-LiDAR) data in order to determine the distribution behaviour of scarp height and the subsequently calculate long term throw-rates. Five faults on Cretewhich display spectacular limestone fault scarps have been studied using high resolution digital elevation model (HRDEM) data. We scanned several hundred square metres of the fault system including the footwall, fault scarp and hanging wall of the investigated fault segment. The vertical displacement and the dip of the scarp were extracted every metre along the strike of the detected fault segment based on the processed HRDEM. The scarp variability was analysed by using statistical and morphological methods. The analysis was done in a geographical information system (GIS) environment. Results show a normal distribution for the scanned fault scarp's vertical displacement. Based on these facts, the mean value of height was chosen to define the authentic vertical displacement. Consequently the scarp can be divided into above, below and within the range of mean (within one standard deviation) and quantify the modifications of vertical displacement. Therefore, the fault segment can be subdivided into areas which are influenced by external modification like erosion and sedimentation processes. Moreover, to describe and measure the variability of vertical displacement along strike the fault, the semi-variance was calculated with the variogram method. This method is used to determine how much influence the external processes have had on the vertical displacement. By combining of morphological and statistical results, the fault can be subdivided into areas with high external influences and areas with authentic fault scarps, which have little or no external influences. This subdivision is necessary for long term throw-rate calculations, because without this differentiation the calculated rates would be misleading and the activity of a fault would be incorrectly assessed with significant implications for seismic hazard assessment since fault slip rate data govern the earthquake recurrence. Furthermore, by using this workflow areas with minimal external influences can be determined, not only for throw-rate calculations, but also for determining samples sites for absolute dating techniques such as cosmogenic nuclide dating. The main outcomes of this study include: i) there is no direct correlation between the fault's mean vertical displacement and dip (R² less than 0.31); ii) without subdividing the scanned scarp into areas with differing amounts of external influences, the along strike variability of vertical displacement is ±35%; iii) when the scanned scarp is subdivided the variation of the vertical displacement of the authentic scarp (exposed by earthquakes only) is in a range of ±6% (the varies depending on the fault from 7 to 12%); iv) the calculation of the long term throw-rate (since 13 ka) for four scarps in Crete using the authentic vertical displacement is 0.35 ± 0.04 mm/yr at Kastelli 1, 0.31 ± 0.01 mm/yr at Kastelli 2, 0.85 ± 0.06 mm/yr at the Asomatos fault (Sellia) and 0.55 ± 0.05 mm/yr at the Lastros fault.

Evaluation of a Change Detection Methodology by Means of Binary Thresholding Algorithms and Informational Fusion Processes

Landcover is subject to continuous changes on a wide variety of temporal and spatial scales. Those changes produce significant effects in human and natural activities. Maintaining an updated spatial database with the occurred changes allows a better monitoring of the Earth?s resources and management of the environment. Change detection (CD) techniques using images from different sensors, such as satellite imagery, aerial photographs, etc., have proven to be suitable and secure data sources from which updated information can be extracted efficiently, so that changes can also be inventoried and monitored. In this paper, a multisource CD methodology for multiresolution datasets is applied. First, different change indices are processed, then different thresholding algorithms for change/no_change are applied to these indices in order to better estimate the statistical parameters of these categories, finally the indices are integrated into a change detection multisource fusion process, which allows generating a single CD result from several combination of indices. This methodology has been applied to datasets with different spectral and spatial resolution properties. Then, the obtained results are evaluated by means of a quality control analysis, as well as with complementary graphical representations. The suggested methodology has also been proved efficiently for identifying the change detection index with the higher contribution.

A new approach to change detection in multispectral images by means of ERGAS index

In this letter, we propose a novel method for unsupervised change detection (CD) in multitemporal Erreur Relative Globale Adimensionnelle de Synthese (ERGAS) satellite images by using the relative dimensionless global error in synthesis index locally. In order to obtain the change image, the index is calculated around a pixel neighborhood (3x3 window) processing simultaneously all the spectral bands available. With the objective of finding the binary change masks, six thresholding methods are selected. A comparison between the proposed method and the change vector analysis method is reported. The accuracy CD showed in the experimental results demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Optimizing panchromatic image change detection based on change index multiband image analysis

This work proposes an optimization of a semi-supervised Change Detection methodology based on a combination of Change Indices (CI) derived from an image multitemporal data set. For this purpose, SPOT 5 Panchromatic images with 2.5 m spatial resolution have been used, from which three Change Indices have been calculated. Two of them are usually known indices; however the third one has been derived considering the Kullbak-Leibler divergence. Then, these three indices have been combined forming a multiband image that has been used in as input for a Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier where four different discriminant functions have been tested in order to differentiate between change and no_change categories. The performance of the suggested procedure has been assessed applying different quality measures, reaching in each case highly satisfactory values. These results have demonstrated that the simultaneous combination of basic change indices with others more sophisticated like the Kullback-Leibler distance, and the application of non-parametric discriminant functions like those employees in the SVM method, allows solving efficiently a change detection problem.

Islanding detection in Microgrids using Harmonic Signature

In recent years, there has been a growing interest in incorporating microgrids in electrical power networks. This is due to various advantages they present, particularly the possibility of working in either autonomous mode or grid connected, which makes them highly versatile structures for incorporating intermittent generation and energy storage. However, they pose safety issues in being able to support a local island in case of utility disconnection. Thus, in the event of an unintentional island situation, they should be able to detect the loss of mains and disconnect for self-protection and safety reasons. Most of the anti-islanding schemes are implemented within control of single generation devices, such as dc-ac inverters used with solar electric systems being incompatible with the concept of microgrids due to the variety and multiplicity of sources within the microgrid. In this paper, a passive islanding detection method based on the change of the 5th harmonic voltage magnitude at the point of common coupling between grid-connected and islanded modes of operation is presented. Hardware test results from the application of this approach to a laboratory scale microgrid are shown. The experimental results demonstrate the validity of the proposed method, in meeting the requirements of IEEE 1547 standards.

Cortical processing of change detection: Dissociation between natural vowels and two-frequency complex tones

We compared magnetoencephalographic responses for natural vowels and for sounds consisting of two pure tones that represent the two lowest formant frequencies of these vowels. Our aim was to determine whether spectral changes in successive stimuli are detected differently for speech and nonspeech sounds. The stimuli were presented in four blocks applying an oddball paradigm (20% deviants, 80% standards): (i) /α/ tokens as deviants vs. /i/ tokens as standards; (ii) /e/ vs. /i/; (iii) complex tones representing /α/ formants vs. /i/ formants; and (iv) complex tones representing /e/ formants vs. /i/ formants. Mismatch fields (MMFs) were calculated by subtracting the source waveform produced by standards from that produced by deviants. As expected, MMF amplitudes for the complex tones reflected acoustic deviation: the amplitudes were stronger for the complex tones representing /α/ than /e/ formants, i.e., when the spectral difference between standards and deviants was larger. In contrast, MMF amplitudes for the vowels were similar despite their different spectral composition, whereas the MMF onset time was longer for /e/ than for /α/. Thus the degree of spectral difference between standards and deviants was reflected by the MMF amplitude for the nonspeech sounds and by the MMF latency for the vowels.

A Minor Change?: A Case Study of Carleton Place's Integration of Minor Variance Procedures into Ontario's Development Permit System

The Development Permit System has been introduce with minimal directives for establishing a decision making process. This is in opposition to the long established process for minor variances and suggests that the Development Permit System does not necessarily incorporate all of Ontario’s fundamental planning principles. From this concept, the study aimed to identify how minor variances are incorporated into the Development Permit System. In order to examine this topic, the research was based around the following research questions: • How are ‘minor variance’ applications processed within the DPS? • To what extent do the four tests of a minor variance influence the outcomes of lower level applications in the DPS approval process? A case study approach was used for this research. The single-case design employed both qualitative and quantitative research methods including a review of academic literature, court cases, and official documents, as well as a content analysis of Class 1, 1A, and 2 Development Permit application files from the Town of Carleton Place that were decided between 2011 and 2015. Upon the completion of the content analysis, it was found that minor variance issues were most commonly assigned to Class 1 applications. Planning staff generally met approval timelines and embraced their delegated approval authority, readily attaching conditions to applications in order to mitigate off-site impacts. While staff met the regulatory requirements of the DPS, ‘minor variance’ applications were largely decided on impact alone, demonstrating that the principles established by the four tests, the defining quality of the minor variance approval process, had not transferred to the Development Permit System. Alternatively, there was some evidence that the development community has not fully adjusted to the requirements of the new approvals process, as some applications were supported using a rationale containing the four tests. Subsequently, a set of four recommendations were offered which reflect the main themes established by the findings. The first two recommendations are directed towards the Province, the third to municipalities and the fourth to developers and planning consultants: 1) Amend Ontario Regulation 608/06 so that provisions under Section 4(3)(e) fall under Section 4(2). 2) Change the rhetoric from “combining elements of minor variances” to “replacing minor variances”. 3) Establish clear evaluation criteria. 4) Understand the evaluative criteria of the municipality in which you are working.

SeqDoC: rapid SNP and mutation detection by direct comparison of DNA sequence chromatograms

Background: This paper describes SeqDoC, a simple, web-based tool to carry out direct comparison of ABI sequence chromatograms. This allows the rapid identification of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and point mutations without the need to install or learn more complicated analysis software. Results: SeqDoC produces a subtracted trace showing differences between a reference and test chromatogram, and is optimised to emphasise those characteristic of single base changes. It automatically aligns sequences, and produces straightforward graphical output. The use of direct comparison of the sequence chromatograms means that artefacts introduced by automatic base-calling software are avoided. Homozygous and heterozygous substitutions and insertion/deletion events are all readily identified. SeqDoC successfully highlights nucleotide changes missed by the Staden package 'tracediff' program. Conclusion: SeqDoC is ideal for small-scale SNP identification, for identification of changes in random mutagenesis screens, and for verification of PCR amplification fidelity. Differences are highlighted, not interpreted, allowing the investigator to make the ultimate decision on the nature of the change.