Multidimensional analysis of complex networks

Complex Networks analysis turn out to be a very promising field of research, testified by many research projects and works that span different fields. Those analysis have been usually focused on characterize a single aspect of the system and a study that considers many informative axes along with a network evolve is lacking. We propose a new multidimensional analysis that is able to inspect networks in the two most important dimensions, space and time. To achieve this goal, we studied them singularly and investigated how the variation of the constituting parameters drives changes to the network as a whole. By focusing on space dimension, we characterized spatial alteration in terms of abstraction levels. We proposed a novel algorithm that, by applying a fuzziness function, can reconstruct networks under different level of details. We verified that statistical indicators depend strongly on the granularity with which a system is described and on the class of networks. We keep fixed the space axes and we isolated the dynamics behind networks evolution process. We detected new instincts that trigger social networks utilization and spread the adoption of novel communities. We formalized this enhanced social network evolution by adopting special nodes (called sirens) that, thanks to their ability to attract new links, were able to construct efficient connection patterns. We simulated the dynamics of the system by considering three well-known growth models. Applying this framework to real and synthetic networks, we showed that the sirens, even when used for a limited time span, effectively shrink the time needed to get a network in mature state. In order to provide a concrete context of our findings, we formalized the cost of setting up such enhancement and provided the best combinations of system's parameters, such as number of sirens, time span of utilization and attractiveness.

Existence and Uniqueness of Equilibrium in Nonoptimal Unbounded Infinite Horizon Economies

In applied work in macroeconomics and finance, nonoptimal infinite horizon economies are often studied in the the state space is unbounded. Important examples of such economies are single vector growth models with production externalities, valued fiat money, monopolistic competition, and/or distortionary government taxation. Although sufficient conditions for existence and uniqueness of Markovian equilibrium are well known for the compact state space case, no similar sufficient conditions exist for unbounded growth. This paper provides such a set of sufficient conditions, and also present a computational algorithm that will prove asymptotically consistent when computing Markovian equilibrium.

The effect of genotype-by-environment interaction on longitudinal triglyceride profiles in the Bogalusa Heart Study

Triglyceride levels are a component of plasma lipids that are thought to be an important risk factor for coronary heart disease and are influenced by genetic and environmental factors, such as single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), alcohol intake, and smoking. This study used longitudinal data from the Bogalusa Heart Study, a biracial community-based survey of cardiovascular disease risk factors. A sample of 1191 individuals, 4 to 38 years of age, was measured multiple times from 1973 to 2000. The study sample consisted of 730 white and 461 African American participants. Individual growth models were developed in order to assess gene-environment interactions affecting plasma triglycerides over time. After testing for inclusion of significant covariates and interactions, final models, each accounting for the effects of a different SNP, were assessed for fit and normality. After adjustment for all other covariates and interactions, LIPC -514C/T was found to interact with age3, age2, and age and a non-significant interaction of CETP -971G/A genotype with smoking status was found (p = 0.0812). Ever-smokers had higher triglyceride levels than never smokers, but persons heterozygous at this locus, about half of both races, had higher triglyceride levels after smoking cessation compared to current smokers. Since tobacco products increase free fatty acids circulating in the bloodstream, smoking cessation programs have the potential to ultimately reduce triglyceride levels for many persons. However, due to the effect of smoking cessation on the triglyceride levels of CETP -971G/A heterozygotes, the need for smoking prevention programs is also demonstrated. Both smoking cessation and prevention programs would have a great public health impact on minimizing triglyceride levels and ultimately reducing heart disease. ^

Habitat characteristics and energy budget of the ocean quahog (Arctica islandica)

We compared lifetime and population energy budgets of the extraordinary long-lived ocean quahog Arctica islandica from 6 different sites - the Norwegian coast, Kattegat, Kiel Bay, White Sea, German Bight, and off northeast Iceland - covering a temperature and salinity gradient of 4-10°C (annual mean) and 25-34, respectively. Based on von Bertalanffy growth models and size-mass relationships, we computed organic matter production of body (PSB) and of shell (PSS), whereas gonad production (PG) was estimated from the seasonal cycle in mass. Respiration (R) was computed by a model driven by body mass, temperature, and site. A. islandica populations differed distinctly in maximum life span (40 y in Kiel Bay to 197 y in Iceland), but less in growth performance (phi' ranged from 2.41 in the White Sea to 2.65 in Kattegat). Individual lifetime energy throughput, as approximated by assimilation, was highest in Iceland (43,730 kJ) and lowest in the White Sea (313 kJ). Net growth efficiency ranged between 0.251 and 0.348, whereas lifetime energy investment distinctly shifted from somatic to gonad production with increasing life span; PS/PG decreased from 0.362 (Kiel Bay, 40 y) to 0.031 (Iceland, 197 y). Population annual energy budgets were derived from individual budgets and estimates of population mortality rate (0.035/y in Iceland to 0.173/y in Kiel Bay). Relationships between budget ratios were similar on the population level, albeit with more emphasis on somatic production; PS/ PG ranged from 0.196 (Iceland) to 2.728 (White Sea), and P/B ranged from 0.203-0.285/y. Life span is the principal determinant of the relationship between budget parameters, whereas temperature affects net growth efficiency only. In the White Sea population, both growth performance and net growth efficiency of A. islandica were lowest. We presume that low temperature combined with low salinity represent a particularly stressful environment for this species.

Is It Worthwhile for Indonesia to Rush into a Free Trade Deal with Japan?

This report represents a preliminary attempt to refine some basic ideas on the potential impact Indonesia might experience from a free trade arrangement with Japan, using a forward-looking, multi-regional, multi-sectoral applied general equilibrium model of global trade to capture growth effects through capital accumulation paying attention to the changes in the patterns of interregional capital flows that might happen even before the policy change occurs. The simulation results revealed that the welfare gains of rushing into trade liberalization with Japan are not so large. This makes out that taking time over negotiations might be the best choice for Indonesia if the government places priority on convincing the Indonesian people that a free trade deal with Japan will definitely bring positive effects, while proceeding rapidly might be the answer if the country is serious about recovering the welfare levels that might be lowered by free trade arrangements among Malaysia, the Philippines, and Japan.

Analyzing size-symmetric vs. size-asymmetric and intra-vs. inter-specific competition in beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) mixed stands

In mixed stands, inter-specific competition can be lower than intra-specific competition when niche complementarity and/or facilitation between species prevail. These positive interactions can take place at belowground and/or aboveground levels. Belowground competition tends to be size symmetric while the aboveground competition is usually for light and almost always size-asymmetric. Interactions between forest tree species can be explored analyzing growth at tree level by comparing intra and inter-specific competition. At the same time, possible causes of niche complementarity can be inferred relating intra and inter-specific competition with the mode of competition, i.e. size-symmetric or sizeasymmetric. The aim of this paper is to further our understanding of the interactions between species and to detect possible causes of competition reduction in mixed stands of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) with other species: pine?beech, oak?beech and fir?beech. To test whether species growth is better explained by size-symmetric and/or size-asymmetric competition, five different competition structures where included in basal area growth models fitted using data from the Spanish National Forest Inventory for the Pyrenees. These models considered either size-symmetry only (Reineke?s stand density index, SDI), size-asymmetry only (SDI of large trees or SDI of small trees), or both combined. In order to assess the influence of the admixture, these indices were introduced in two different ways, one of which was to consider that trees of all species compete in a similar way, and the other was to split the stand density indices into intra- and inter-specific competition components. The results showed that in pine?beech mixtures, there is a slightly negative effect of beech on pine basal area growth while beech benefitted from the admixture of Scots pine; this positive effect being greater as the proportion of pine trees in larger size classes increases. In oak?beech mixtures, beech growth was also positively influenced by the presence of oaks that were larger than the beech trees. The growth of oak, however, decreased when the proportion of beech in SDI increased, although the presence of beech in larger size classes promoted oak growth. Finally, in fir?beech mixtures, neither fir nor beech basal area growth were influenced by the presence of the other species. The results indicate that size-asymmetric is stronger than size-symmetric competition in these mixtures, highlighting the importance of light in competition. Positive species interactions in size-asymmetric competition involved a reduction of asymmetry in tree size-growth relationships.

Aplicación de la energía solar térmica en una incubadora comercial de perdiz roja y supervisión de la actividad biológica mediante sensores inteligentes

La perdiz roja es la especie cinegética por excelencia en la península ibérica, cuya cría en cautividad y suelta controlada comenzó a regularse en los años 70 con la aparición del ICONA. La incubación controlada de huevos de perdiz es imprescindible, con fines cinegéticos y de preservación de la especie, y se desarrolla con incubadoras comerciales de pequeña y mediana escala, distribuidas en zonas rurales con acceso limitado y/o deficiente al suministro eléctrico. En nuestras latitudes el aporte de energía solar térmica se perfila como una posibilidad de mejorar la eficiencia energética de éstas y otras instalaciones y de reducir la dependencia energética exterior. Hay diversos factores físico-químicos que influyen en la calidad de la incubación: temperatura, humedad relativa, y concentración de gases, de los cuales sólo los dos primeros son habitualmente supervisados y controlados en este tipo de incubadoras. Esta Tesis surge en el marco de dos proyectos de cooperación con la AECID, y tiene como objetivos: la caracterización espacial de variables relevantes (temperatura (T), humedad relativa (HR)) en la incubadora comercial durante el proceso de incubación, la determinación de la relación existente entre la evolución de variables ambientales durante el proceso de incubación y la tasa de nacimientos (35-77%), así como el diseño y evaluación del sistema de apoyo solar térmico para determinar su potencial de utilización durante las incubaciones comerciales. La instalación de un número limitado de sensores permite la monitorización precisa del proceso de incubación de los huevos. Los resultados más relevantes indican que en incubaciones comerciales los gradientes de T y HR han sido despreciables (1ºC de diferencia entre las posiciones con mayor y menor T media y un 4,5% de diferencia entre las posiciones con mayor y menor HR), mientras que el seguimiento y ajuste (mediante modelos de crecimiento) de la concentración de CO2 (r2 entre 0,948 y 0,987 en las 5 incubaciones, para un total de 43315 huevos) permite valorar la actividad fisiológica de los huevos e incluso predecir la tasa de éxito (nacimientos), basándose en la concentración de CO2 estimada mediante modelos de crecimiento en el día 20 de incubación (r2 entre 0,997 y 0,994 según el modelo de estimación empleado). El sistema ha sido valorado muy positivamente por los productores (Finca Cinegética Dehesa Vieja de Galapagar). El aporte térmico se ha diseñado (con mínima intrusión en el sistema comercial) sobre la base de un sistema de enfriamiento de emergencia original de la incubadora, al que se han incorporado un colector solar, un depósito, un sistema de electroválvulas, una bomba de circulación y sensores de T en distintos puntos del sistema, y cuyo control ha sido automatizado. En esta Tesis se muestra que la contribución solar puede aportar hasta un 42% de las demandas de energía en nuestras condiciones geográficas para una temperatura de consigna dentro de la incubadora de 36.8ºC, sin afectar a la estabilidad de la temperatura. Además, el rendimiento del colector solar se ha acotado entre un 44% y un 85%, de acuerdo con los cálculos termodinámicos; valores que se mantienen dentro del rango aportado por el fabricante (61%). En el futuro se plantea evaluar el efecto de distintas estrategias de control, tales como controladores difusos, que incorporan el conocimiento experto al control automático. ABSTRACT The partridge is the quintessential game species in the Iberian Peninsula, which controlled breeding and release, began to be regulated in the 70s with the emergence of ICONA. The controlled incubation of eggs is essential, and takes place in commercial incubators of small and medium scale, distributed in rural areas with limited and/or inadequate access to power. In our latitudes the contribution of solar thermal energy is emerging as a possibility to improve the energy efficiency of the facilities and to reduce external energy dependence. There are various physicochemical factors influencing the quality of incubation: temperature, relative humidity and concentration of gases, of which only the first two are typically monitored and controlled in such incubators. This PhD comes within the framework of two cooperation projects with AECID and aims: the spatial characterization of relevant variables in a commercial incubator (temperature (T), and relative humidity (HR)), determining the relationships in the changes in environmental variables during incubation and birth rates (35-77%) as well as the design and evaluation of solar thermal support system to determine its potential use during commercial incubations; the installation of a limited number of sensors has allowed accurate monitoring of incubation of eggs. The most relevant results indicate that in commercial incubations, the gradients in T and HR have been negligible (1°C difference between the highest and lowest positions T and average 4.5% difference between the highest and lowest positions HR), while monitoring and fit using growth models of the concentration of CO2 (r2 between 0.948 and 0.987 in 5 incubations, for a total amount of 43,315 eggs) allows assessing the physiological activity of the eggs and even predict the success rate (hatchability), based on the estimated concentration of CO2 by using growth models on day 20 of incubation (r2 between 0.997 and 0.994 depending on the fit model).The system has been highly valued by producers (Finca Cinegética Dehesa Vieja de Galapagar). The hybrid heat system is designed (with minimal intrusion into the commercial system) based on an emergency cooling device, original in the incubator. New elements have been incorporated: a solar collector, a tank, a system of solenoid valves, a circulating pump and T sensors at various points of the system, whose control has been automated. This PhD shows that the solar contribution is responsible for up to 42% of energy demands in our geographical conditions for a setpoint temperature inside the incubator of 36.8ºC, without questioning the stability of the temperature. Furthermore, the efficiency of the solar collector has been bounded between 44% and 85%, according to thermodynamic calculations; values remain within the range provided by the manufacturer (61%). In the future it is proposed to evaluate the effect of different control strategies, such as fuzzy controllers, which incorporate the expertise to automated control.

Prospectives of monitoring biological activity in a red-legged partridge incubator with a carbon dioxide probe

This study focuses on the relationship between CO2 production and the ultimate hatchability of the incubation. A total amount of 43316 eggs of red-legged partridge (Alectoris rufa) were supervised during five actual incubations: three in 2012 and two in 2013. The CO2 concentration inside the incubator was monitored over a 20-day period, showing sigmoidal growth from ambient level (428 ppm) up to 1700 ppm in the incubation with the highest hatchability. Two sigmoid growth models (logistic and Gompertz) were used to describe the CO2 production by the eggs, with the result that the logistic model was a slightly better fit (r2=0.976 compared to r2=0.9746 for Gompertz). A coefficient of determination of 0.997 between the final CO2 estimation (ppm) using the logistic model and hatchability (%) was found.

Very-long-baseline radio interferometry observations of low power radio galaxies.

The parsec scale properties of low power radio galaxies are reviewed here, using the available data on 12 Fanaroff-Riley type I galaxies. The most frequent radio structure is an asymmetric parsec-scale morphology--i.e., core and one-sided jet. It is shared by 9 (possibly 10) of the 12 mapped radio galaxies. One (possibly 2) of the other galaxies has a two-sided jet emission. Two sources are known from published data to show a proper motion; we present here evidence for proper motion in two more galaxies. Therefore, in the present sample we have 4 radio galaxies with a measured proper motion. One of these has a very symmetric structure and therefore should be in the plane of the sky. The results discussed here are in agreement with the predictions of the unified scheme models. Moreover, the present data indicate that the parsec scale structure in low and high power radio galaxies is essentially the same.

Difficulties with unification.

The difficulties perceived in the orientation-based unified scheme models, when confronted with the observational data, are pointed out. It is shown that in meter-wavelength selected samples, which presumably are largely free of an orientation bias, the observed numbers of quasars versus radio galaxies are not in accordance with the expectations of the unified scheme models. The observed number ratios seem to depend heavily on the redshift, fluxdensity, or radio luminosity levels of the selected sample. This cannot be explained within the simple orientation-based unified scheme with a fixed average value of the half-opening angle (c approximately 45 degrees ) for the obscuring torus that supposedly surrounds the nuclear optical continuum and the broad-line regions. Further, the large differences seen between radio galaxies and quasars in their size distributions in the luminosity-redshift plane could not be accommodated even if I were to postulate some suitable cosmological evolution of the opening angle of the torus. Some further implications of these observational results for the recently proposed modified versions of the unified scheme model are pointed out.

Modelos não lineares resultantes da soma de regressões lineares ponderadas por funções distribuição acumulada

Os controladores eletrônicos de pulverização visam minimizar a variação das taxas de insumos aplicadas no campo. Eles fazem parte de um sistema de controle, e permitem a compensação da variação de velocidade de deslocamento do pulverizador durante a operação. Há vários tipos de controladores eletrônicos de pulverização disponíveis no mercado e uma das formas de selecionar qual o mais eficiente nas mesmas condições, ou seja, em um mesmo sistema de controle, é quantificar o tempo de resposta do sistema para cada controlador específico. O objetivo desse trabalho foi estimar os tempos de resposta para mudanças de velocidade de um sistema eletrônico de pulverização via modelos de regressão não lineares, estes, resultantes da soma de regressões lineares ponderadas por funções distribuição acumulada. Os dados foram obtidos no Laboratório de Tecnologia de Aplicação, localizado no Departamento de Engenharia de Biossistemas da Escola Superior de Agricultura \"Luiz de Queiroz\", Universidade de São Paulo, no município de Piracicaba, São Paulo, Brasil. Os modelos utilizados foram o logístico e de Gompertz, que resultam de uma soma ponderada de duas regressões lineares constantes com peso dado pela função distribuição acumulada logística e Gumbell, respectivamente. Reparametrizações foram propostas para inclusão do tempo de resposta do sistema de controle nos modelos, com o objetivo de melhorar a interpretação e inferência estatística dos mesmos. Foi proposto também um modelo de regressão não linear difásico que resulta da soma ponderada de regressões lineares constantes com peso dado pela função distribuição acumulada Cauchy seno hiperbólico exponencial. Um estudo de simulação foi feito, utilizando a metodologia de Monte Carlo, para avaliar as estimativas de máxima verossimilhança dos parâmetros do modelo.

Modelagem do crescimento e produção aplicado ao manejo florestal na Amazônia brasileira

A floresta Amazônica possui um papel ambiental, social e econômico importante para a região, para o país e para o mundo. Dessa forma, técnicas de exploração que visam a diminuição dos impactos causados à floresta são essenciais. Com isso, o objetivo dessa tese é comparar a Exploração de Impacto Reduzido com a Exploração Convencional na Amazônia brasileira através de modelos empíricos de árvore individual de crescimento e produção. O experimento foi instalado na fazenda Agrossete, localizada em Paragominas - PA. Em 1993, três áreas dessa fazenda foram selecionadas para exploração. Na primeira área, 105 hectares foram explorados através da Exploração de Impacto Reduzido. Na segunda área, 75 hectares foram submetidos à Exploração Convencional. E, por fim, a terceira área foi mantida como área testemunha. A coleta de dados de diâmetro à altura do peito e a identificação das espécies dentro de uma parcela de 24,5 hectares, instalada aleatoriamente em cada área, foi realizada nos anos de 1993 (antes da colheita), 1994 (seis meses depois da colheita), 1995, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2003, 2006 e 2009. Dessa forma, as três áreas foram comparadas através do ajuste de um modelo de incremento diamétrico, considerando que efeito estocástico podia assumir outras quatro distribuições além da distribuição normal, de um modelo de probabilidade de mortalidade e de um modelo de probabilidade de recrutamento. O comportamento do incremento diamétrico indicou que as áreas que foram submetidas a exploração possuem o mesmo comportamento em quase todos os grupos de espécies, com exceção do grupo de espécies intermediárias. Os indivíduos que são submetidos a exploração possuem um maior crescimento em diâmetros quando comparados com área que não sofreu exploração. Além disso, assumir o efeito estocástico com distribuição Weibull melhorou o ajuste dos modelos. Em relação à probabilidade de mortalidade, novamente as áreas que sofreram exploração possuem comportamento semelhante quanto à mortalidade, mas diferente da área que não foi explorada, sendo que os indivíduos localizados nas áreas exploradas possuem uma maior probabilidade de morte em relação aos presentes na área não explorada. Os modelos de probabilidade de recrutamento indicaram diferença apenas entre as áreas exploradas e a área controle. Sendo que, as áreas exploradas apresentaram uma maior taxa de recrumento em comparação a área não explorada. Portanto, o comportamento individual das árvores após a exploração é o mesmo na Exploração Convencional e na Exploração de Impacto Reduzido.

Report to the Illinois General Assembly /

"In fulfillment of Senate Joint Resolution 87."

State Social Safety Net Programs and the Great Recession: The First Line of Defense and the Last Resort for the Economically Disadvantaged

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Differential gains from Business Link support and advice:a treatment effects approach

The provision of advisory support to small firms is almost ubiquitous in OECD countries, although it is organised in different ways and is justified on slightly different grounds. In England publicly supported advisory services are provided through the Business Link (BL) network. Here, we consider two questions: what sort of companies receive advisory support from BL; and, what types of firms benefit most from that support? Our analysis is based on a telephone survey of 2000 firms, around half of which had received intensive assistance from BL between April and October 2003. Probit analysis suggests that the probability of receiving assistance was greater among younger businesses, those with larger numbers of directors in the firm, and those with more gender diversity among the firm's leadership team. Our business-growth models suggest that BL intensive assistance was having a positive effect on employment growth in 2003. BL had a positive but insignificant impact on sales growth over the period. Employment growth effects tend to be larger where firms have a management and organisational structure, which is more conducive to absorbing and making use of external advice. The analysis suggests that BL might increase its impact through targeting these larger, more export-orientated, businesses. Employment growth effects differ little, however, depending on either the ethnic or the gender diversity of the leadership team.