Last Hired, First Fired? Black-White Unemployment and the Business Cycle

Past studies have tested the claim that blacks are the last hired during periods of economic growth and the first fired in recessions by examining the movement of relative unemployment rates over the business cycle. Any conclusion drawn from this type of analysis must be viewed as tentative because the cyclical movements in the underlying transitions into and out of unemployment are not examined. Using Current Population Survey data matched across adjacent months from 1989 to 2004, this paper examines labor market transitions for prime age males to test this hypothesis. Considerable evidence is presented that blacks are the first fired as the business cycle weakens. However, no evidence is found that blacks are the last hired. Instead, blacks are initially hired from the ranks of the unemployed early in the business cycle and later are drawn from non-participation. Narrowing of the racial unemployment gap near the peak of the business cycle is driven by a reduction in the rate of job loss for blacks rather than increases in hiring. There is also evidence that residual differences in the racial unemployment gap vary systematically over the business cycle in a manner consistent with discrimination being more evident in the economy at times when its cost is lower.

Agglomeration Economies in Japan: Technical Efficiency, Growth and Unemployment

This paper examines if the effects of agglomeration economies get manifested in technical efficiency and generate faster economic growth and higher (lower) levels of employment (unemployment). Using the prefecture level data for each of the two-digit groups of industries in Japan, the paper estimates region-specific technical efficiency index based on the stochastic frontier production function framework. The results of the factor analysis show that in most of the industry-groups (with a few exceptions) efficiency has a positive association with external scale variable(s). Though the relationship is not seen to be very strong, it would be equally erroneous to ignore the effect of agglomeration economies on efficiency. In the case of some of the light goods industries the agglomeration effect is relatively stronger. Further, economic growth varies positively with external scale variable(s) and unemployment rate tends to fall with respect to growth and concentration. All this tends to suggest that measures against industrial concentration may be counter-productive, particularly in the context of globalisation when countries are in dire need of raising productivity.

Poverty, unemployment, and common mental disorders: population based cohort study

Objective: To determine whether poverty and unemployment increase the likelihood of or delay recovery from common mental disorders, and whether these associations could be explained by subjective financial strain.

Import competition from China and unemployment. An analysis using Spanish workers’micro-data.

In the period 1997-2011, import competition from China multiplied by five in the Spanish manufacturing sector. In this paper we analyze whether this severe increase in import competition from China is associated with a higher probability of becoming unemployed in the Spanish manufacturing sector. Linking industry-level data on imports with the working histories of 141,000 manufacturing workers, we show that import competition from China is positively associated with the probability of becoming unemployed. In particular, a standard deviation increase in import competition from China raises the probability of becoming unemployed between 0.8 and 3.5 percentage points, which represents between a 9% and a 44% increase relative to the unconditional probability of becoming unemployed. In contrast, we do not find any effect of import competition from China on manufacturing wages. Also, our estimations show that there is weak evidence of a positive association between a higher import competition from China and the probability of switching to an employment outside the manufacturing sector.

Intimate partner violence among women in Spain: the impact of regional-level male unemployment and income inequality

Background: Intimate partner violence (IPV) against women is a complex worldwide public health problem. There is scarce research on the independent effect on IPV exerted by structural factors such as labour and economic policies, economic inequalities and gender inequality. Objective: To analyse the association, in Spain, between contextual variables of regional unemployment and income inequality and individual women’s likelihood of IPV, independently of the women’s characteristics. Method: We conducted multilevel logistic regression to analyse cross-sectional data from the 2011 Spanish Macrosurvey of Gender-based Violence which included 7898 adult women. The first level of analyses was the individual women’ characteristics and the second level was the region of residence. Results: Of the survey participants, 12.2% reported lifetime IPV. The region of residence accounted for 3.5% of the total variability in IPV prevalence. We determined a direct association between regional male long-term unemployment and IPV likelihood (P = 0.007) and between the Gini Index for the regional income inequality and IPV likelihood (P < 0.001). Women residing in a region with higher gender-based income discrimination are at a lower likelihood of IPV than those residing in a region with low gender-based income discrimination (odds ratio = 0.64, 95% confidence intervals: 0.55–0.75). Conclusions: Growing regional unemployment rates and income inequalities increase women’s likelihood of IPV. In times of economic downturn, like the current one in Spain, this association may translate into an increase in women’s vulnerability to IPV.

No effect of unemployment on intimate partner-related femicide during the financial crisis: a longitudinal ecological study in Spain

Background: Spain’s financial crisis has been characterized by an increase in unemployment. This increase could have produced an increase in deaths of women due to intimate partner-related femicides (IPF). This study aims to determine whether the increase in unemployment among both sexes in different regions in Spain is related to an increase in the rates of IPF during the current financial crisis period. Methods: An ecological longitudinal study was carried out in Spain’s 17 regions. Two study periods were defined: pre-crisis period (2005–2007) and crisis period (2008–2013). IPF rates adjusted by age and unemployment rates for men and women were calculated. We fitted multilevel linear regression models in which observations at level 1 were nested within regions according to a repeated measurements design. Results: Rates of unemployment have progressively increased in Spain, rising above 20 % from 2008 to 2013 in some regions. IPF rates decreased in some regions during crisis period with respect to pre-crisis period. The multilevel analysis does not support the existence of a significant relationship between the increase in unemployment in men and women and the decrease in IPF since 2008. Discussion: The increase in unemployment in men and women in Spain does not appear to have an effect on IPF. The results of the multilevel analysis discard the hypothesis that the increase in the rates of unemployment in women and men are related to an increase in IPF rates. Conclusions: The decline in IPF since 2008 might be interpreted as the result of exposure to other factors such as the lower frequency of divorces in recent years or the medium term effects of the integral protection measures of the law on gender violence that began in 2005.

The unemployment problem

National Industrial Conference Board.