Estimativas de herdabilidade e tendências genéticas para características de crescimento e reprodutivas em bovinos da raça Nelore: Estimates of heritability and genetic trends for growth and reproduction traits in Nelore cattle

Foram estimados os coeficientes de herdabilidade e a mudança genética para peso à desmama (PD), peso ao sobreano (PS), ganho de peso do nascimento à desmama (GND), ganho de peso da desmama ao sobreano (GDS), perímetro escrotal (PE) e idade ao primeiro parto (IPP) em animais da raça Nelore. Foram utilizados dados de 128.148 animais nascidos entre 1984 e 2006. Os componentes de variância foram estimados pelo método da máxima verossimilhança restrita, e os valores genéticos foram preditos por modelos mistos aplicando-se modelo animal bicaracterística, incluindo peso à desmama em todas as análises. As tendências genéticas foram estimadas pela regressão dos valores genéticos sobre o ano de nascimento dos animais. Os coeficientes de herdabilidade do efeito direto estimados foram de 0,23 (0,07) (PD); 0,24 (0,02) (PS); 0,21 (0,01) (GND); 0,23 (0,01) (GDS); 0,46 (0,02) (PE) e 0,15 (0,01) (IPP). As tendências genéticas diretas estimadas foram de 0,171 (0,01); 0,219 (0,02); 0,186 (0,03) e 0,224 (0,02) kg/ano para PD, PS, GND e GDS, respectivamente, o que representa incrementos de 0,10; 0,08; 0,13 e 0,22% nas médias das mesmas características ao ano, respectivamente. Para o PE e a IPP no período de 1984 a 1995, as tendências genéticas foram nulas, com valores de 0,011 (0,03) cm/ano e -0,003 (0,06) dias/ano, respectivamente. No segundo período considerado (1996 a 2006), as tendências genéticas para PE e IPP foram de 0,069 (0,01) cm/ano e -3,024 (0,04) dias/ano, respectivamente, indicando melhorias consideráveis em tais características. Esses valores sugerem que características produtivas e reprodutivas, quando utilizadas como critério de seleção, proporcionam progresso genético no rebanho, sendo indicadas para seleção de animais da raça Nelore.

Genetic trends in the expected progeny difference of the asymptotic weight of Nelore females

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Genetic and phenotypic trends for growth traits of buffaloes in Brazil

The objectives this paper were to estimate genetic parameters and genetic and phenotypic trends of birth weight (BWT) and weights adjusted to 205 (WT205), 365 (WT365) and 550 (P550) days of age of beef buffaloes born from 1985 to 2003 in Brazil. For BWT and WT205 the model included direct and maternal genetic and maternal environment as random effects and contemporary and genetic groups as fixed effects. For WT365 and WT550 the same model was used except without direct maternal and maternal environmental effects. The genetic and phenotypic trends were estimated by regression of means of dependent variables on birth year of animals Regressions were obtained by using two methodologies: 1) linear regression; and 2) non-parametric splined regression. The direct heritability estimates were 0.09, 0.45, 0.46 and 0.58 for BWT, WT205, WT365 and WT550, respectively. The direct genetic trends from linear regression were 0.01, 0.23, 0.58 and 1.40 kg per year for PN, WT205, VVT365 and WT550, respectively (P<0.001 for all). Phenotypic trends were strongly positive while genetic trends were consistently positive but small. Genetic parameters indicate potential for increased rate of genetic change with full implementation of genetic improvement programs.

Tourist Cruise Ships and the Trade in Services: Recent Trends in Countries of the Caribbean Basin

This issue of the Bulletin reviews the main trends of trade in goods and services for the countries of the Association of Caribbean States (ACS) in 2004. The strong recovery of trade in goods and the robust expansion of trade in services are highlighted, emphasizing the increase in services as a proportion of total exports for the smaller Caribbean economies, which may even exceed 80%.A detailed analysis of the performance of the tourism component, especially travel, showed that in 2004 there was a boom in cruise ship arrivals, a situation which poses a real challenge for some islands in terms of ensuring a permanent flow of tourists and making use of the main comparative advantages -sun, sea and beaches- and possible linkages with the rest of the economy such as the hotel industry, restaurants, business and entertainment centres, guided excursions, transport, yachting, and others. In some islands, the ratio of cruise passengers to inhabitants is particularly high, and can reach a significant factor of about 11 tourists for every inhabitant in the Bahamas, 8 in Aruba, 7 in Antigua and Barbuda and 5 in Dominica, and around 4 for a sample of eleven countries.One of the main challenges for a number of Caribbean islands is how to capitalize on such linkages by developing sustainable tourism that minimizes the possible adverse impacts on the environment and the everyday life of the citizens.

Killer Whales and Marine Mammal Trends in The North Pacific—A Re-Examination of Evidence for Sequential Megafauna Collapse and the Prey-Switching Hypothesis

Springer et al. (2003) contend that sequential declines occurred in North Pacific populations of harbor and fur seals, Steller sea lions, and sea otters. They hypothesize that these were due to increased predation by killer whales, when industrial whaling’s removal of large whales as a supposed primary food source precipitated a prey switch. Using a regional approach, we reexamined whale catch data, killer whale predation observations, and the current biomass and trends of potential prey, and found little support for the prey-switching hypothesis. Large whale biomass in the Bering Sea did not decline as much as suggested by Springer et al., and much of the reduction occurred 50–100 yr ago, well before the declines of pinnipeds and sea otters began; thus, the need to switch prey starting in the 1970s is doubtful. With the sole exception that the sea otter decline followed the decline of pinnipeds, the reported declines were not in fact sequential. Given this, it is unlikely that a sequential megafaunal collapse from whales to sea otters occurred. The spatial and temporal patterns of pinniped and sea otter population trends are more complex than Springer et al. suggest, and are often inconsistent with their hypothesis. Populations remained stable or increased in many areas, despite extensive historical whaling and high killer whale abundance. Furthermore, observed killer whale predation has largely involved pinnipeds and small cetaceans; there is little evidence that large whales were ever a major prey item in high latitudes. Small cetaceans (ignored by Springer et al.) were likely abundant throughout the period. Overall, we suggest that the Springer et al. hypothesis represents a misleading and simplistic view of events and trophic relationships within this complex marine ecosystem.

Impact of unlinked deaths and coding changes on mortality trends in the Swiss National Cohort

BACKGROUND Results of epidemiological studies linking census with mortality records may be affected by unlinked deaths and changes in cause of death classification. We examined these issues in the Swiss National Cohort (SNC). METHODS The SNC is a longitudinal study of the entire Swiss population, based on the 1990 (6.8 million persons) and 2000 (7.3 million persons) censuses. Among 1,053,393 deaths recorded 1991-2007 5.4% could not be linked using stringent probabilistic linkage. We included the unlinked deaths using pragmatic linkages and compared mortality rates for selected causes with official mortality rates. We also examined the impact of the 1995 change in cause of death coding from version 8 (with some additional rules) to version 10 of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD), using Poisson regression models with restricted cubic splines. Finally, we compared results from Cox models including and excluding unlinked deaths of the association of education, marital status, and nationality with selected causes of death. RESULTS SNC mortality rates underestimated all cause mortality by 9.6% (range 2.4%-17.9%) in the 85+ population. Underestimation was less pronounced in years nearer the censuses and in the 75-84 age group. After including 99.7% of unlinked deaths, annual all cause SNC mortality rates were reflecting official rates (relative difference between -1.4% and +1.8%). In the 85+ population the rates for prostate and breast cancer dropped, by 16% and 21% respectively, between 1994 and 1995 coincident with the change in cause of death coding policy. For suicide in males almost no change was observed. Hazard ratios were only negligibly affected by including the unlinked deaths. A sudden decrease in breast (21% less, 95% confidence interval: 12%-28%) and prostate (16% less, 95% confidence interval: 7%-23%) cancer mortality rates in the 85+ population coincided with the 1995 change in cause of death coding policy. CONCLUSIONS Unlinked deaths bias analyses of absolute mortality rates downwards but have little effect on relative mortality. To describe time trends of cause-specific mortality in the SNC, accounting for the unlinked deaths and for the possible effect of change in death certificate coding was necessary.

Results of modelled Arctic river discharge trends since 7 ka BP

The Arctic hydrological cycle throughout the Holocene is analyzed based on the results of transient simulations with the coupled atmosphere-ocean circulation model ECHO-G. The results suggest a ~ 2 % increase of mid-Holocene to preindustrial Arctic river discharges for the Eurasian continent. However, rivers of the North America Arctic realm show a moderate runoff decline of approximately 4 to 5 % for the same period. The total river discharge into the Arctic Ocean has remained at an approximately constant preindustrial level since the mid Holocene. The positive discharge trend within Eurasia is caused by a more rapid decrease in local net evaporation compared to a smaller decline in advected moisture and hence precipitation. This effect is neither recognized within the North American Arctic domain nor in the far eastern part of the Eurasian Arctic realm. A detailed comparison of these model findings with a variety of proxy studies is conducted. The collected proxy records show trends of continental surface temperatures and precipitation rates that are consistent with the simulations. A continuation of the transient Holocene runs for the 19th and 20th century with increased greenhouse gases indicates an increase of the total river influx into the Arctic Ocean of up to 7.6 %. The Eurasian river discharges increase by 7.5 %, the North American discharges by up to 8.4 %. The most rapid increases have been detected since the beginning of the 20th century. These results are corroborated by the observed rising of Arctic river discharges during the last century which is attributed to anthropogenic warming. The acceleration of the Arctic hydrological cycle in the 20th century is without precedence in the Holocene.

Evaluating trends in abundance of immature green turtles, Chelonia mydas, in the Greater Caribbean

Many long-lived marine species exhibit life history traits. that make them more vulnerable to overexploitation. Accurate population trend analysis is essential for development and assessment of management plans for these species. However, because many of these species disperse over large geographic areas, have life stages inaccessible to human surveyors, and/or undergo complex developmental migrations, data on trends in abundance are often available for only one stage of the population, usually breeding adults. The green turtle (Chelonia mydas) is one of these long-lived species for which population trends are based almost exclusively on either numbers of females that emerge to nest or numbers of nests deposited each year on geographically restricted beaches. In this study, we generated estimates of annual abundance for juvenile green turtles at two foraging grounds in the Bahamas based on long-term capture-mark-recapture (CMR) studies at Union Creek (24 years) and Conception Creek (13 years), using a two-stage approach. First, we estimated recapture probabilities from CMR data using the Cormack-Jolly-Seber models in the software program MARK; second, we estimated annual abundance of green turtles. at both study sites using the recapture probabilities in a Horvitz-Thompson type estimation procedure. Green turtle abundance did not change significantly in Conception Creek, but, in Union Creek, green turtle abundance had successive phases of significant increase, significant decrease, and stability. These changes in abundance resulted from changes in immigration, not survival or emigration. The trends in abundance on the foraging grounds did not conform to the significantly increasing trend for the major nesting population at Tortuguero, Costa Rica. This disparity highlights the challenges of assessing population-wide trends of green turtles and other long-lived species. The best approach for monitoring population trends may be a combination of (1) extensive surveys to provide data for large-scale trends in relative population abundance, and (2) intensive surveys, using CMR techniques, to estimate absolute abundance and evaluate the demographic processes' driving the trends.

Temporal aggregation of migration counts can improve accuracy and precision of trends

Temporal replicate counts are often aggregated to improve model fit by reducing zero-inflation and count variability, and in the case of migration counts collected hourly throughout a migration, allows one to ignore nonindependence. However, aggregation can represent a loss of potentially useful information on the hourly or seasonal distribution of counts, which might impact our ability to estimate reliable trends. We simulated 20-year hourly raptor migration count datasets with known rate of change to test the effect of aggregating hourly counts to daily or annual totals on our ability to recover known trend. We simulated data for three types of species, to test whether results varied with species abundance or migration strategy: a commonly detected species, e.g., Northern Harrier, Circus cyaneus; a rarely detected species, e.g., Peregrine Falcon, Falco peregrinus; and a species typically counted in large aggregations with overdispersed counts, e.g., Broad-winged Hawk, Buteo platypterus. We compared accuracy and precision of estimated trends across species and count types (hourly/daily/annual) using hierarchical models that assumed a Poisson, negative binomial (NB) or zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) count distribution. We found little benefit of modeling zero-inflation or of modeling the hourly distribution of migration counts. For the rare species, trends analyzed using daily totals and an NB or ZINB data distribution resulted in a higher probability of detecting an accurate and precise trend. In contrast, trends of the common and overdispersed species benefited from aggregation to annual totals, and for the overdispersed species in particular, trends estimating using annual totals were more precise, and resulted in lower probabilities of estimating a trend (1) in the wrong direction, or (2) with credible intervals that excluded the true trend, as compared with hourly and daily counts.

Modeling soil organic carbon dynamics in Oxisols of Ibiruba (Brazil) with the Century Model

introduction of conservation practices in degraded agricultural land will generally recuperate soil quality, especially by increasing soil organic matter. This aspect of soil organic C (SOC) dynamics under distinct cropping and management systems can be conveniently analyzed with ecosystem models such as the Century Model. In this study, Century was used to simulate SOC stocks in farm fields of the Ibiruba region of north central Rio Grande do Sul state in Southern Brazil. The region, where soils are predominantly Oxisols, was originally covered with subtropical woodlands and grasslands. SOC dynamics was simulated with a general scenario developed with historical data on soil management and cropping systems beginning with the onset of agriculture in 1900. From 1993 to 2050, two contrasting scenarios based on no-tillage soil management were established: the status quo scenario, with crops and agricultural inputs as currently practiced in the region and the high biomass scenario with increased frequency of corn in the cropping system, resulting in about 80% higher biomass addition to soils. Century simulations were in close agreement with SOC stocks measured in 2005 in the Oxisols with finer texture surface horizon originally under woodlands. However, simulations in the Oxisols with loamy surface horizon under woodlands and in the grassland soils were not as accurate. SOC stock decreased from 44% to 50% in fields originally under woodland and from 20% to 27% in fields under grasslands with the introduction of intensive annual grain crops with intensive tillage and harrowing operations. The adoption of conservation practices in the 1980s led to a stabilization of SOC stocks followed by a partial recovery of native stocks. Simulations to 2050 indicate that maintaining status quo would allow SOC stocks to recover from 81% to 86% of the native stocks under woodland and from 80% to 91 % of the native stocks under grasslands. Adoption of a high biomass scenario would result in stocks from 75% to 95% of the original stocks under woodlands and from 89% to 102% in the grasslands by 2050. These simulations outcomes underline the importance of cropping system yielding higher biomass to further increase SOC content in these Oxisols. This application of the Century Model could reproduce general trends of SOC loss and recovery in the Oxisols of the Ibiruba region. Additional calibration and validation should be conducted before extensive usage of Century as a support tool for soil carbon sequestration projects in this and other regions can be recommended. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial, temporal, and human dimensions of air pollution in Brisbane

Arriving in Brisbane some six years ago, I could not help being impressed by what may be prosaically described as its atmospheric amenity resources. Perhaps this in part was due to my recent experiences in major urban centres in North America, but since that time, that sparkling quality and the blue skies seem to have progressively diminished. Unfortunately, there is also objective evidence available to suggest that this apparent deterioration is not merely the result of habituation of the senses. Air pollution data for the city show trends of increasing concentrations of those very substances that have destroyed the attractiveness of major population centres elsewhere, with climates initially as salubrious. Indeed, present figures indicate that photochemical smog in unacceptably high concentrations is rapidly becoming endemic also over Brisbane. These regrettable developments should come as no surprise. The society at large has not been inclined to respond purposefully to warnings of impending environmental problems, despite the experiences and publicity from overseas and even from other cities within Australia. Nor, up to the present, have certain politicians and government officials displayed stances beyond those necessary for the maintenance of a decorum of concern. At this stage, there still exists the possibility for meaningful government action without the embarrassment of losing political favour with the electorate. To the contrary, there is every chance that such action may be turned to advantage with increased public enlightenment. It would be more than a pity to miss perhaps the final remaining opportunity: Queensland is one of the few remaining places in the world with sufficient resources to permit both rational development and high environmental quality. The choice appears to be one of making a relatively minor investment now for a large financial and social gain the near future, or, permitting Brisbane to degenerate gradually into just another stagnated Los Angeles or Sydney. The present monograph attempts to introduce the problem by reviewing the available research on air quality in the Brisbane area. It also tries to elucidate some seemingly obvious, but so far unapplied management approaches. By necessity, such a broad treatment needs to make inroads into extensive ranges of subject areas, including political and legal practices to public perceptions, scientific measurement and statistical analysis to dynamics of air flow. Clearly, it does not pretend to be definitive in any of these fields, but it does try to emphasize those adjustable facets of the human use system of natural resources, too often neglected in favour of air pollution control technology. The crossing of disciplinary boundaries, however, needs no apology: air quality problems are ubiquitous, touching upon space, time and human interaction.

Global trajectories of the long-term decline of coral reef ecosystems

Degradation of coral reef ecosystems began centuries ago, but there is no global summary of the magnitude of change. We compiled records, extending back thousands of years, of the status and trends of seven major guilds of carnivores, herbivores, and architectural species from 14 regions. Large animals declined before small animals and architectural species, and Atlantic reefs declined before reefs in the Red Sea and Australia, but the trajectories of decline were markedly similar worldwide. All reefs were substantially degraded long before outbreaks of coral disease and bleaching. Regardless of these new threats, reefs will not survive without immediate protection from human exploitation over large spatial scales.

The rise of multiple births in Brazil

Aim: The aim of this study was to assess the rise in multiple births and its influence on trends of low birth weight (LBW) rates in Porto Alegre, Brazil. Methods: This is a registry-based study of live births from 1994 to 2005 obtained from the national live birth information system. Chi-square tests for trends were assessed for LBW and multiple birth rates. The impact of multiple births on LBW trends was assessed by sequential modelling, including year and further adjustment for multiple births. Risk factors for multiple births were assessed using the Poisson regression. Results: A total of 263 252 live births were studied. The LBW rate increased from 9.70% to 9.88% (p < 0.001) and the multiple birth rate rose from 1.95% to 2.53% (p < 0.001). LBW rate increased among twins, from 57.14% to 63.46% (p = 0.001). The twin birth rate rose by 24.7%, while the rate of triplets or higher-order increased by 150%. Multiple births may be responsible for 23.9% of the increase in the LBW rate over the period. Mothers with higher levels of schooling, older mothers and mothers delivering in private hospitals were more likely to deliver multiple births. Conclusions: It seems that both the increase in multiple births and in the LBW among multiple births contributed to this rise in overall LBW rate.

Dendritic branching patterns of pyramidal cells in the visual cortex of the new world marmoset monkey, with comparative notes on the old world macaque monkey

The basal dendritic arbors of 442 supragranular pyramidal cells in visual cortex of the marmoset monkey were compared by fractal analyses. As detailed in a previous study,(1) individual cells were injected with Lucifer Yellow and processed for a DAB reaction product. The basal dendritic arbors were drawn, in the tangential plane, and the fractal dimension (D) determined by the dilation method. The fractal dimensions were compared between cells in ten cortical areas containing cells involved in visual processing, including the primary visual area (Vi), the second visual area (V2), the dorsoanterior area (DA), the dorsomedial area (DM), the dorsolateral. area (DL), the middle temporal area (MT), the posterior parietal area (PP), the fundus of the superior temporal area (FST) and the caudal and rostral subdivisions of inferotemporal cortex (ITc and ITr, respectively). Of 45 pairwise interareal comparisons of the fractal dimension of neurones, 20 were significantly different. Moreover, comparison of data according to previously published visual processing pathways revealed a trend for cells with greater fractal dimensions in higher cortical areas. Comparison of the present results with those in homologous cortical areas in the macaque monkey(2) revealed some similarities between the two species. The similarity in the trends of D values of cells in both species may reflect developmental features which, result in different functional attributes.

Effects of slurry rheology on industrial grinding performance

To determine the effect of slurry rheology on industrial grinding performance, 45 surveys were conducted on 16 full-scale grinding mills in five sites. Four operating variables - mill throughput, slurry density, slurry viscosity and feed fines content-were investigated. The rheology of the mill discharge slurries was measured either on-line or off-line, and the data were processed using a standard procedure to obtain a full range of flow curves. Multi-linear regression was employed as a statistical analysis tool to determine whether or not rheological effects exert an influence on industrial grinding, and to assess the influence of the four mill operating conditions on mill performance in terms of the Grinding Index, a criterion describing the overall breakage of particles across the mill. The results show that slurry rheology does influence industrial grinding. The trends of these effects on Grinding Index depend upon the rheological nature of the slurry-whether the slurries are dilatant or pseudoplastic, and whether they exhibit a high or low yield stress. The interpretation of the regression results is discussed, the observed effects are summarised, and the potential for incorporating rheological principles into process control is considered, Guidelines are established to improve industrial grinding operations based on knowledge of the rheological effects. This study confirms some trends in the effect of slurry rheology on grinding reported in the literature, and extends these to a broader understanding of the relationship between slurry properties and rheology, and their effects on industrial milling performance. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.