Pricing farm-level agricultural insurance: a Bayesian approach

This paper applies Hierarchical Bayesian Models to price farm-level yield insurance contracts. This methodology considers the temporal effect, the spatial dependence and spatio-temporal models. One of the major advantages of this framework is that an estimate of the premium rate is obtained directly from the posterior distribution. These methods were applied to a farm-level data set of soybean in the State of the Parana (Brazil), for the period between 1994 and 2003. The model selection was based on a posterior predictive criterion. This study improves considerably the estimation of the fair premium rates considering the small number of observations.

Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.

Effects of margarines and butter consumption on lipid profiles, inflammation markers and lipid transfer to HDL particles in free-living subjects with the metabolic syndrome

Objective: Our purpose was to examine the effects of daily servings of butter, no-trans-fat margarine and plant sterol margarine, within recommended amounts, on plasma lipids, apolipoproteins (Apos), biomarkers of inflammation and endothelial dysfunction, and on the transfer of lipids to HDL particles in free-living subjects with the metabolic syndrome. Methods: This was a randomized, single-blind study where 53 metabolic syndrome subjects (62% women, mean age 54 years) received isocaloric servings of butter, no-trans-fat margarine or plant sterol margarine in addition to their usual diets for 5 weeks. The main outcome measures were plasma lipids, Apo, inflammatory and endothelial dysfunction markers (CRP, IL-6, CD40L or E-selectin), small dense LDL cholesterol concentrations and in vitro radioactive lipid transfer from cholesterol-rich emulsions to HDL. Difference among groups was evaluated by analysis of variance. Results: There was a significant reduction in Apo-B (-10.4 %, P = 0.043) and in the Apo-B/Apo-A-1 ratio (-11.1%, P = 0.034) with plant sterol margarine. No changes in plasma lipids were noticed with butter and no-trans-fat margarine. Transfer rates of lipids to HDL were reduced in the no-trans-fat margarine group: triglycerides -42.0%, (P<0.001 vs butter and sterol margarine) and free cholesterol -16.2% (P = 0.006 vs sterol margarine). No significant effects were noted on the concentrations of inflammatory and endothelial dysfunction markers among the groups. Conclusions: In free-living subjects with the metabolic syndrome consumption of plant sterol and no-trans-fat margarines within recommended amounts reduced, respectively, Apo-B concentrations and the ability of HDL to accept lipids. European Journal of Clinical Nutrition (2010) 64, 1141-1149; doi:10.1038/ejcn.2010.122; published online 21 July 2010

Orange juice decreases low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in hypercholesterolemic subjects and improves lipid transfer to high-density lipoprotein in normal and hypercholesterolemic subjects

Orange juice (OJ) is regularly consumed worldwide, but its effects on plasma lipids have rarely been explored. This study hypothesized that consumption of OJ concentrate would improve lipid levels and lipid metabolism, which are important in high-density lipoprotein (HDL) function in normolipidemic (NC) and hypercholesterolemic (HCH) subjects. Fourteen HCH and 31 NC adults consumed 750 mL/day OJ concentrate (1:6 OJ/water) for 60 days. Eight control subjects did not consume OJ for 60 days. Plasma was collected before and on the last clay for biochemical analysis and an in vitro as

Comparison of oxygen mass transfer coefficient in simple and extractive fermentation systems

Aeration and agitation are important variables to ensure effective oxygen transfer rate during aerobic bioprocesses: therefore, the knowledge of the volumetric mass transfer coefficient (k(L)a) is required. In view of selecting the optimum oxygen requirements for extractive fermentation in aqueous two-phase system (ATPS), the k(L)a values in a typical ATPS medium were compared in this work with those in distilled water and in a simple fermentation medium. in the absence of biomass. Aeration and agitation were selected as the independent variables using a 2(2) full factorial design. Both variables showed statistically significant effects on k(L)a, and the highest values of this parameter in both media for simple fermentation (241 s(-1)) and extractive fermentation with ATPS (70.3 s(-1)) were observed at the highest levels of aeration (5 vvm) and agitation (1200 rpm). The k(L)a values were then used to establish mathematical correlations of this response as a function of the process variables. The exponents of the power number (N(3)D(2)) and superficial gas velocity (V(s)) determined in distilled water (alpha = 0.39 and beta = 0.47, respectively) were in reasonable agreement with the ones reported in the literature for several aqueous systems and close to those determined for a simple fermentation medium (alpha=0.38 and beta=0.41). On the other hand, as expected by the increased viscosity in the presence of polyethylene glycol, their values were remarkably higher in a typical medium for extractive fermentation (alpha=0.50 and beta=1.0). A reasonable agreement was found between the experimental data of k(L)a for the three selected systems and the values predicted by the theoretical models, under a wide range of operational conditions. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

In Vitro Simultaneous Transfer of Lipids to HDL in Coronary Artery Disease and in Statin Treatment

The exchange of lipids with cells and other lipoproteins is a crucial process in HDL metabolism and for HDL antiatherogenic function. Here, we tested a practical method to quantify the simultaneous transfer to HDL of phospholipids, free-cholesterol, esterified cholesterol and triacylglycerols and to verify the lipid transfer in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) or undergoing statin treatment. Twenty-eight control subjects without CAD, 27 with CAD and 25 CAD patients under simvastatin treatment were studied. Plasma samples were incubated with a donor nanoemulsion prepared by ultrasonication of the constituent lipids and labeled with radioactive lipids; % lipids transferred to HDL were quantified in the HDL-containing supernatant after chemical precipitation of non-HDL fractions and the nanoemulsion. The assay was precise and reproducible. Increase of temperature (4-37 A degrees C), of incubation period (5 min to 2 h), of HDL-cholesterol concentration (33-244 mg/dL) and of mass of nanoemulsion lipids (0.075-0.3 mg/mu L) resulted in increased lipid transfer from the nanoemulsion to HDL. In contrast, increasing pH (6.5-8.5) and albumin concentration (3.5-7.0 g/dL) did not affect lipid transfer. There was no difference between CAD and control non-CAD with regard to the lipid transfer, but statin treatment reduced the transfer to HDL of all four lipids. The test herein described is a valid and practical tool for exploring an important aspect of HDL metabolism.

Governing coordination: Behavioural principles and neural correlates

The coordination of movement is governed by a coalition of constraints. The expression of these constraints ranges from the concrete—the restricted range of motion offered by the mechanical configuration of our muscles and joints; to the abstract—the difficulty that we experience in combining simple movements into complex rhythms. We seek to illustrate that the various constraints on coordination are complementary and inclusive, and the means by which their expression and interaction are mediated systematically by the integrative action of the central nervous system (CNS). Beyond identifying the general principles at the behavioural level that govern the mutual interplay of constraints, we attempt to demonstrate that these principles have as their foundation specific functional properties of the cortical motor systems. We propose that regions of the brain upstream of the motor cortex may play a significant role in mediating interactions between the functional representations of muscles engaged in sensorimotor coordination tasks. We also argue that activity in these ldquosupramotorrdquo regions may mediate the stabilising role of augmented sensory feedback.

Heat transfer and entropy generation optimization of forced convection in a porous-saturated duct of rectangular cross-section

We investigate analytically the first and the second law characteristics of fully developed forced convection inside a porous-saturated duct of rectangular cross-section. The Darcy-Brinkman flow model is employed. Three different types of thermal boundary conditions are examined. Expressions for the Nusselt number, the Bejan number, and the dimensionless entropy generation rate are presented in terms of the system parameters. The conclusions of this analytical study will make it possible to compare, evaluate, and optimize alternative rectangular duct design options in terms of heat transfer, pressure drop, and entropy generation. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A first-principles density-functional calculation of the electronic and vibrational structure of the key melanin monomers

We report first-principles density-functional calculations for hydroquinone (HQ), indolequinone (IQ), and semiquinone (SQ). These molecules are believed to be the basic building blocks of the eumelanins, a class of biomacromolecules with important biological functions (including photoprotection) and with the potential for certain bioengineering applications. We have used the difference of self-consistent fields method to study the energy gap between the highest occupied molecular orbital and the lowest unoccupied molecular orbital, HL. We show that HL is similar in IQ and SQ, but approximately twice as large in HQ. This may have important implications for our understanding of the observed broadband optical absorption of the eumelanins. The possibility of using this difference in HL to molecularly engineer the electronic properties of eumelanins is discussed. We calculate the infrared and Raman spectra of the three redox forms from first principles. Each of the molecules have significantly different infrared and Raman signatures, and so these spectra could be used in situ to nondestructively identify the monomeric content of macromolecules. It is hoped that this may be a helpful analytical tool in determining the structure of eumelanin macromolecules and hence in helping to determine the structure-property-function relationships that control the behavior of the eumelanins.

Interspecific and intraspecific horizontal transfer of Wolbachia in Drosophila

Cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI) in Drosophila simulans is related to infection of the germ line by a rickettsial endosymbiont (genus Wolbachia). Wolbachia were transferred by microinjection of egg cytoplasm into uninfected eggs of both D. simulans and D. melanogaster to generate infected populations. Transinfected strains of D. melanogaster with lower densities of Wolbachia than the naturally infected D. simulans strain did not express high levels of CI. However, transinfected D. melanogaster egg cytoplasm, transferred back into D. simulans, generated infected populations that expressed CI at levels near those of the naturally infected strain. A transinfected D. melanogaster line selected for increased levels of CI expression also displayed increased symbiont densities. These data suggest that a threshold level of infection is required for normal expression of CI and that host factors help determine the density of the symbiont in the host.

Analysis of heat transfer and entropy generation for a thermally developing Brinkman–Brinkman forced convection problem in a rectangular duct with isoflux walls

Heat transfer and entropy generation analysis of the thermally developing forced convection in a porous-saturated duct of rectangular cross-section, with walls maintained at a constant and uniform heat flux, is investigated based on the Brinkman flow model. The classical Galerkin method is used to obtain the fully developed velocity distribution. To solve the thermal energy equation, with the effects of viscous dissipation being included, the Extended Weighted Residuals Method (EWRM) is applied. The local (three dimensional) temperature field is solved by utilizing the Green’s function solution based on the EWRM where symbolic algebra is being used for convenience in presentation. Following the computation of the temperature field, expressions are presented for the local Nusselt number and the bulk temperature as a function of the dimensionless longitudinal coordinate, the aspect ratio, the Darcy number, the viscosity ratio, and the Brinkman number. With the velocity and temperature field being determined, the Second Law (of Thermodynamics) aspect of the problem is also investigated. Approximate closed form solutions are also presented for two limiting cases of MDa values. It is observed that decreasing the aspect ratio and MDa values increases the entropy generation rate.