Practical methods of tracking of nonstationary time series applied to real-world data

In this paper, we discuss some practical implications for implementing adaptable network algorithms applied to non-stationary time series problems. Two real world data sets, containing electricity load demands and foreign exchange market prices, are used to test several different methods, ranging from linear models with fixed parameters, to non-linear models which adapt both parameters and model order on-line. Training with the extended Kalman filter, we demonstrate that the dynamic model-order increment procedure of the resource allocating RBF network (RAN) is highly sensitive to the parameters of the novelty criterion. We investigate the use of system noise for increasing the plasticity of the Kalman filter training algorithm, and discuss the consequences for on-line model order selection. The results of our experiments show that there are advantages to be gained in tracking real world non-stationary data through the use of more complex adaptive models.

The potential of solid phase microextraction (SPME) for the recovery of explosives followed by gas and liquid chromatographic analysis

The potential of solid phase microextraction (SPME) in the analysis of explosives is demonstrated. A sensitive, rapid, solventless and inexpensive method for the analysis of explosives and explosive odors from solid and liquid samples has been optimized using SPME followed by HPLC and GC/ECD. SPME involves the extraction of the organic components in debris samples into sorbent-coated silica fibers, which can be transferred directly to the injector of a gas chromatograph. SPME/HPLC requires a special desorption apparatus to elute the extracted analyte onto the column at high pressure. Results for use of GC/ECD is presented and compared to the results gathered by using HPLC analysis. The relative effects of controllable variables including fiber chemistry, adsorption and desorption temperature, extraction time, and desorption time have been optimized for various high explosives. ^

Improving the scientific reliability of biological detection of explosives by Canis familiaris: Active odour signatures and their implications

The use of canines as a method of detection of explosives is well established worldwide and those applying this technology range from police forces and law enforcement to humanitarian agencies in the developing world. Despite the recent surge in publication of novel instrumental sensors for explosives detection, canines are still regarded by many to be the most effective real-time field method of explosives detection. However, unlike instrumental methods, currently it is difficult to determine detection levels, perform calibration of the canines' ability or produce scientifically valid quality control checks. Accordingly, amongst increasingly strict requirements regarding forensic evidence admission such as Frye and Daubert, there is a need for better scientific understanding of the process of canine detection. ^ When translated to the field of canine detection, just like any instrumental technique, peer reviewed publication of the reliability, success and error rates, is required for admissibility. Commonly training is focussed towards high explosives such as TNT and Composition 4, and the low explosives such as Black and Smokeless Powders are added often only for completeness. ^ Headspace analyses of explosive samples, performed by Solid Phase Microextraction (SPME) paired with Gas Chromatography - Mass Spectrometry (GC-MS), and Gas Chromatography - Electron Capture Detection (GC-ECD) was conducted, highlighting common odour chemicals. The odour chemicals detected were then presented to previously trained and certified explosives detection canines, and the activity/inactivity of the odour determined through field trials and experiments. ^ It was demonstrated that TNT and cast explosives share a common odour signature, and the same may be said for plasticized explosives such as Composition C-4 and Deta Sheet. Conversely, smokeless powders were demonstrated not to share common odours. An evaluation of the effectiveness of commercially available pseudo aids reported limited success. The implications of the explosive odour studies upon canine training then led to the development of novel inert training aids based upon the active odours determined. ^

The construction and optimization of an ion mobility spectrometer for the analysis of explosives and drugs

Today, over 15,000 Ion Mobility Spectrometry (IMS) analyzers are employed at worldwide security checkpoints to detect explosives and illicit drugs. Current portal IMS instruments and other electronic nose technologies detect explosives and drugs by analyzing samples containing the headspace air and loose particles residing on a surface. Canines can outperform these systems at sampling and detecting the low vapor pressure explosives and drugs, such as RDX, PETN, cocaine, and MDMA, because these biological detectors target the volatile signature compounds available in the headspace rather than the non-volatile parent compounds of explosives and drugs.^ In this dissertation research volatile signature compounds available in the headspace over explosive and drug samples were detected using SPME as a headspace sampling tool coupled to an IMS analyzer. A Genetic Algorithm (GA) technique was developed to optimize the operating conditions of a commercial IMS (GE Itemizer 2), leading to the successful detection of plastic explosives (Detasheet, Semtex H, and C-4) and illicit drugs (cocaine, MDMA, and marijuana). Short sampling times (between 10 sec to 5 min) were adequate to extract and preconcentrate sufficient analytes (> 20 ng) representing the volatile signatures in the headspace of a 15 mL glass vial or a quart-sized can containing ≤ 1 g of the bulk explosive or drug.^ Furthermore, a research grade IMS with flexibility for changing operating conditions and physical configurations was designed and fabricated to accommodate future research into different analytes or physical configurations. The design and construction of the FIU-IMS were facilitated by computer modeling and simulation of ion’s behavior within an IMS. The simulation method developed uses SIMION/SDS and was evaluated with experimental data collected using a commercial IMS (PCP Phemto Chem 110). The FIU-IMS instrument has comparable performance to the GE Itemizer 2 (average resolving power of 14, resolution of 3 between two drugs and two explosives, and LODs range from 0.7 to 9 ng). ^ The results from this dissertation further advance the concept of targeting volatile components to presumptively detect the presence of concealed bulk explosives and drugs by SPME-IMS, and the new FIU-IMS provides a flexible platform for future IMS research projects.^

Evaluation of non-contact sampling and detection of explosives using receiver operating characteristic curves

The growing need for fast sampling of explosives in high throughput areas has increased the demand for improved technology for the trace detection of illicit compounds. Detection of the volatiles associated with the presence of the illicit compounds offer a different approach for sensitive trace detection of these compounds without increasing the false positive alarm rate. This study evaluated the performance of non-contact sampling and detection systems using statistical analysis through the construction of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves in real-world scenarios for the detection of volatiles in the headspace of smokeless powder, used as the model system for generalizing explosives detection. A novel sorbent coated disk coined planar solid phase microextraction (PSPME) was previously used for rapid, non-contact sampling of the headspace containers. The limits of detection for the PSPME coupled to IMS detection was determined to be 0.5-24 ng for vapor sampling of volatile chemical compounds associated with illicit compounds and demonstrated an extraction efficiency of three times greater than other commercially available substrates, retaining >50% of the analyte after 30 minutes sampling of an analyte spike in comparison to a non-detect for the unmodified filters. Both static and dynamic PSPME sampling was used coupled with two ion mobility spectrometer (IMS) detection systems in which 10-500 mg quantities of smokeless powders were detected within 5-10 minutes of static sampling and 1 minute of dynamic sampling time in 1-45 L closed systems, resulting in faster sampling and analysis times in comparison to conventional solid phase microextraction-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (SPME-GC-MS) analysis. Similar real-world scenarios were sampled in low and high clutter environments with zero false positive rates. Excellent PSPME-IMS detection of the volatile analytes were visualized from the ROC curves, resulting with areas under the curves (AUC) of 0.85-1.0 and 0.81-1.0 for portable and bench-top IMS systems, respectively. Construction of ROC curves were also developed for SPME-GC-MS resulting with AUC of 0.95-1.0, comparable with PSPME-IMS detection. The PSPME-IMS technique provides less false positive results for non-contact vapor sampling, cutting the cost and providing an effective sampling and detection needed in high-throughput scenarios, resulting in similar performance in comparison to well-established techniques with the added advantage of fast detection in the field.

The Construction and Optimization on an Ion Mobility Spectrometer for the Analysis of Explosives and Drugs

Today, over 15,000 Ion Mobility Spectrometry (IMS) analyzers are employed at worldwide security checkpoints to detect explosives and illicit drugs. Current portal IMS instruments and other electronic nose technologies detect explosives and drugs by analyzing samples containing the headspace air and loose particles residing on a surface. Canines can outperform these systems at sampling and detecting the low vapor pressure explosives and drugs, such as RDX, PETN, cocaine, and MDMA, because these biological detectors target the volatile signature compounds available in the headspace rather than the non-volatile parent compounds of explosives and drugs. In this dissertation research volatile signature compounds available in the headspace over explosive and drug samples were detected using SPME as a headspace sampling tool coupled to an IMS analyzer. A Genetic Algorithm (GA) technique was developed to optimize the operating conditions of a commercial IMS (GE Itemizer 2), leading to the successful detection of plastic explosives (Detasheet, Semtex H, and C-4) and illicit drugs (cocaine, MDMA, and marijuana). Short sampling times (between 10 sec to 5 min) were adequate to extract and preconcentrate sufficient analytes (> 20 ng) representing the volatile signatures in the headspace of a 15 mL glass vial or a quart-sized can containing ≤ 1 g of the bulk explosive or drug. Furthermore, a research grade IMS with flexibility for changing operating conditions and physical configurations was designed and fabricated to accommodate future research into different analytes or physical configurations. The design and construction of the FIU-IMS were facilitated by computer modeling and simulation of ion’s behavior within an IMS. The simulation method developed uses SIMION/SDS and was evaluated with experimental data collected using a commercial IMS (PCP Phemto Chem 110). The FIU-IMS instrument has comparable performance to the GE Itemizer 2 (average resolving power of 14, resolution of 3 between two drugs and two explosives, and LODs range from 0.7 to 9 ng). The results from this dissertation further advance the concept of targeting volatile components to presumptively detect the presence of concealed bulk explosives and drugs by SPME-IMS, and the new FIU-IMS provides a flexible platform for future IMS research projects.

The potential of solid phase microextraction (spme) for the recovery of explosives followed by gas and liquid chromatographic analysis

The potential of solid phase microextraction (SPME) in the analysis of explosives is demonstrated. A sensitive, rapid, solventless and inexpensive method for the analysis of explosives and explosive odors from solid and liquid samples has been optimized using SPME followed by HPLC and GC/ECD. SPME involves the extraction of the organic components in debris samples into sorbent-coated silica fibers, which can be transferred directly to the injector of a gas chromatograph. SPME/HPLC requires a special desorption apparatus to elute the extracted analyte onto the column at high pressure. Re suits for use of GC[ECD is presented and compared to the results gathered by using HPLC analysis. The relative effects of controllable variables including fiber chemistry, adsorption and desorption temperature, extraction time, and desorption time have been optimized for various high explosives.

Computational Tracking of Mental Health in Youth: Latin American Contributions to a Low-Cost and Effective Solution for Early Psychiatric Diagnosis

The early onset of mental disorders can lead to serious cognitive damage, and timely interventions are needed in order to prevent them. In patients of low socioeconomic status, as is common in Latin America, it can be hard to identify children at risk. Here, we briefly introduce the problem by reviewing the scarce epidemiological data from Latin America regarding the onset of mental disorders, and discussing the difficulties associated with early diagnosis. Then we present computational psychiatry, a new field to which we and other Latin American researchers have contributed methods particularly relevant for the quantitative investigation of psychopathologies manifested during childhood. We focus on new technologies that help to identify mental disease and provide prodromal evaluation, so as to promote early differential diagnosis and intervention. To conclude, we discuss the application of these methods to clinical and educational practice. A comprehensive and quantitative characterization of verbal behavior in children, from hospitals and laboratories to homes and schools, may lead to more effective pedagogical and medical intervention

Satellite tracking of adult loggerheads (Caretta caretta L.) around waters of Cape Verde Archipielago (Western Africa)

[EN] During the 1999 nesting season (from June to October), four satellite transmitters were attached to two males and two females of Caretta caretta from Boavista Island (Cape Verde Archipelago, western Africa), where density of nesting females is the highest in the whole archipelago. Transmitters did not work as well as expected, resulting in a low number of locations, possibly due to the neritic behavior of adult loggerheads at reproductive habitat, with the antennae exposed to continuous rubbing. Therefore, we establish a conservative hypothesis about movements of C.caretta in Cape Verde.

Feature-based tracking of urethral motion in low-resolution trans-perineal ultrasound

This paper describes a novel algorithm for tracking the motion of the urethra from trans-perineal ultrasound. Our work is based on the structure-from-motion paradigm and therefore handles well structures with ill-defined and partially missing boundaries. The proposed approach is particularly well-suited for video sequences of low resolution and variable levels of blurriness introduced by anatomical motion of variable speed. Our tracking method identifies feature points on a frame by frame basis using the SURF detector/descriptor. Inter-frame correspondence is achieved using nearest-neighbor matching in the feature space. The motion is estimated using a non-linear bi-quadratic model, which adequately describes the deformable motion of the urethra. Experimental results are promising and show that our algorithm performs well when compared to manual tracking.

Tracking of fatness during childhood, adolescence and young adulthood: a 7-year follow-up study in Madeira Island, Portugal

Aims: Investigating tracking of fatness from childhood to adolescence, early adolescence to young adulthood and late adolescence to young adulthood. Subjects and methods: Participants from the Madeira Growth Study were followed during an average period of 7.2 years. Height, body mass, skin-folds and circumferences were measured, nine health- and performance-related tests were administered and the Baecke questionnaire was used to assess physical activity. Skeletal maturity was estimated using the TW3 method. Results: The prevalence of overweight plus obesity ranged from 8.2–20.0% at baseline and from 20.4–40.0% at followup, in boys. Corresponding percentages for girls were 10.6– 12.0% and 13.2–18.0%. Inter-age correlations for fatness indicators ranged from 0.43–0.77. BMI, waist circumference and sum of skin-folds at 8, 12 and 16-years old were the main predictors of these variables at 15, 19 and 23-years old, respectively. Strength, muscular endurance and aerobic fitness were negatively related to body fatness. Physical activity and maturation were independently associated with adolescent (15 years) and young adult (19 years) fatness. Conclusions: Over 7.2 years, tracking was moderate-to-high for fatness. Variance was explained by fatness indicators and to a small extent by physical fitness, physical activity and maturation.

Feature-based tracking of urethral motion in low-resolution trans-perineal ultrasound

This paper describes a novel algorithm for tracking the motion of the urethra from trans-perineal ultrasound. Our work is based on the structure-from-motion paradigm and therefore handles well structures with ill-defined and partially missing boundaries. The proposed approach is particularly well-suited for video sequences of low resolution and variable levels of blurriness introduced by anatomical motion of variable speed. Our tracking method identifies feature points on a frame by frame basis using the SURF detector/descriptor. Inter-frame correspondence is achieved using nearest-neighbor matching in the feature space. The motion is estimated using a non-linear bi-quadratic model, which adequately describes the deformable motion of the urethra. Experimental results are promising and show that our algorithm performs well when compared to manual tracking.

Tracking of fatness during childhood, adolescence and young adulthood: a 7-year follow-up study in Madeira Island, Portugal

Aims: Investigating tracking of fatness from childhood to adolescence, early adolescence to young adulthood and late adolescence to young adulthood. Subjects and methods: Participants from the Madeira Growth Study were followed during an average period of 7.2 years. Height, body mass, skin-folds and circumferences were measured, nine health- and performance-related tests were administered and the Baecke questionnaire was used to assess physical activity. Skeletal maturity was estimated using the TW3 method. Results: The prevalence of overweight plus obesity ranged from 8.2–20.0% at baseline and from 20.4–40.0% at followup, in boys. Corresponding percentages for girls were 10.6– 12.0% and 13.2–18.0%. Inter-age correlations for fatness indicators ranged from 0.43–0.77. BMI, waist circumference and sum of skin-folds at 8, 12 and 16-years old were the main predictors of these variables at 15, 19 and 23-years old, respectively. Strength, muscular endurance and aerobic fitness were negatively related to body fatness. Physical activity and maturation were independently associated with adolescent (15 years) and young adult (19 years) fatness. Conclusions: Over 7.2 years, tracking was moderate-to-high for fatness. Variance was explained by fatness indicators and to a small extent by physical fitness, physical activity and maturation.

Grundlegende Untersuchungen zum Verhalten ausgewählter Seltenerdelemente bei Explosionen und zur Anwendbarkeit spezieller Methoden zu deren Analyse

Bisher ist bei forensischen Untersuchungen von Explosionen die Rückverfolgung der verwendeten Sprengstoffe begrenzt, da das Material in aller Regel bei der Explosion zerstört wird. Die Rückverfolgung von Sprengstoffen soll mit Hilfe von Identifikations-Markierungssubstanzen erleichtert werden. Diese stellen einen einzigartigen Code dar, der auch nach einer Sprengung wiedergefunden und identifiziert werden kann. Die dem Code zugeordneten, eindeutigen Informationen können somit ausgelesen werden und liefern der Polizei bei der Aufklärung weitere Ansätze.rnZiel der vorliegenden Arbeit ist es, das Verhalten von ausgewählten Seltenerdelementen (SEE) bei Explosion zu untersuchen. Ein auf Lanthanoidphosphaten basierender Identifikations-Markierungsstoff bietet die Möglichkeit, verschiedene Lanthanoide innerhalb eines einzelnen Partikels zu kombinieren, wodurch eine Vielzahl von Codes generiert werden kann. Somit kann eine Veränderung der Ausgangszusammensetzung des Codes auch nach einer Explosion durch die Analyse eines einzelnen Partikels sehr gut nachvollzogen und somit die Eignung des Markierungsstoffes untersucht werden. Eine weitere Zielsetzung ist die Überprüfung der Anwendbarkeit der Massenspektrometrie mit induktiv gekoppeltem Plasma (ICP-MS) und Partikelanalyse mittels Rasterelektronenmikroskopie (REM) für die Analyse der versprengten Identifikations-Markierungssubstanzen. rnDie Ergebnisbetrachtungen der ICP-MS-Analyse und REM-Partikelanalyse deuten zusammenfassend auf eine Fraktionierung der untersuchten Lanthanoide oder deren Umsetzungsprodukte nach Explosion in Abhängigkeit ihrer thermischen Belastbarkeit. Die Befunde zeigen eine Anreicherung der Lanthanoide mit höherer Temperaturbeständigkeit in größeren Partikeln, was eine Anreicherung von Lanthanoiden mit niedrigerer Temperaturbeständigkeit in kleineren Partikeln impliziert. Dies lässt sich in Ansätzen durch einen Fraktionierungsprozess in Abhängigkeit der Temperaturstabilität der Lanthanoide oder deren Umsetzungsprodukten erklären. Die der Fraktionierung zugrunde liegenden Mechanismen und deren gegenseitige Beeinflussung bei einer Explosion konnten im Rahmen dieser Arbeit nicht abschließend geklärt werden.rnDie generelle Anwendbarkeit und unter Umständen notwendige, komplementäre Verwendung der zwei Methoden ICP-MS und REM-Partikelanalyse wird in dieser Arbeit gezeigt. Die ICP-MS stellt mit großer untersuchter Probenfläche und hoher Genauigkeit eine gute Methode zur Charakterisierung der Konzentrationsverhältnisse der untersuchten Lanthanoide dar. Die REM-Partikelanalyse hingegen ermöglicht im Falle von Kontamination der Proben mit anderen Lanthanoid-haltigen Partikeln eine eindeutige Differenzierung der Elementvergesellschaftung pro Partikel. Sie kann somit im Gegensatz zur ICP-MS Aufschluss über die Art und Zusammensetzung der Kontamination geben. rnInnerhalb der vorgenommenen Untersuchungen stellte die bei der ICP-MS angewandte Probennahmetechnik eine ideale Art der Probennahme dar. Bei anderen Oberflächen könnte diese jedoch in Folge der in verschiedenen Partikelgrößen resultierenden Fraktionierung zu systematisch verfälschten Ergebnissen führen. Um die generelle Anwendbarkeit der ICP-MS im Hinblick auf die Analyse versprengter Lanthanoide zu gewährleisten, sollte eine Durchführung weiterer Sprengungen auf unterschiedlichen Probenoberflächen erfolgen und gegebenenfalls weitere Probennahme-, Aufschluss- und Anreicherungsverfahren evaluiert werden.rn