2/6/19, remise des conditions de paix aux Autrichiens [préliminaires au traité de Saint-Germain-en-Laye du 10 septembre, au château] : [photographie de presse] / [Agence Rol]

Référence bibliographique : Rol, 54223

2/6/19, remise des conditions de paix aux Autrichiens à St Germain [préliminaires au traité de Saint-Germain-en-Laye du 10 septembre, au château] : [photographie de presse] / [Agence Rol]

Référence bibliographique : Rol, 54222

2/6/19, remise des conditions de paix aux Autrichiens [préliminaires au traité de Saint-Germain-en-Laye du 10 septembre, au château] : [photographie de presse] / [Agence Rol]

Référence bibliographique : Rol, 54221

2/6/19, remise du traité de paix aux Autrichiens [préliminaires du traité de Saint-Germain-en-Laye du 10 septembre, au château], MM. Clemenceau et Lloyd George : [photographie de presse] / [Agence Rol]

Référence bibliographique : Rol, 54216

Nouveau manuel complet de géologie, ou Traité élémentaire de cette science... (Nouvelle édition revue, corrigée et augmentée) / par M. J.-J.-N. Huot,...

Collection : Manuels Roret

Modelling world investment markets using threshold conditional correlation models

In this paper we propose a parsimonious regime-switching approach to model the correlations between assets, the threshold conditional correlation (TCC) model. This method allows the dynamics of the correlations to change from one state (or regime) to another as a function of observable transition variables. Our model is similar in spirit to Silvennoinen and Teräsvirta (2009) and Pelletier (2006) but with the appealing feature that it does not suffer from the course of dimensionality. In particular, estimation of the parameters of the TCC involves a simple grid search procedure. In addition, it is easy to guarantee a positive definite correlation matrix because the TCC estimator is given by the sample correlation matrix, which is positive definite by construction. The methodology is illustrated by evaluating the behaviour of international equities, govenrment bonds and major exchange rates, first separately and then jointly. We also test and allow for different parts in the correlation matrix to be governed by different transition variables. For this, we estimate a multi-threshold TCC specification. Further, we evaluate the economic performance of the TCC model against a constant conditional correlation (CCC) estimator using a Diebold-Mariano type test. We conclude that threshold correlation modelling gives rise to a significant reduction in portfolio´s variance.

Strength and cost of an induced immune response are associated with a heritable melanin-based colour trait in female tawny owls.

1. Melanin pigments provide the most widespread source of coloration in vertebrates, but the adaptive function of such traits remains poorly known. 2. In a wild population of tawny owls (Strix aluco), we investigated the relationships between plumage coloration, which varies continuously from dark to pale reddish, and the strength and cost of an induced immune response. 3. The degree of reddishness in tawny owl feather colour was positively correlated with the concentration of phaeomelanin and eumelanin pigments, and plumage coloration was highly heritable (h(2) = 0.93). No carotenoids were detected in the feathers. 4. In mothers, the degree of melanin-based coloration was associated with antibody production against a vaccine, with dark reddish females maintaining a stronger level of antibody for a longer period of time compared to pale reddish females, but at a cost in terms of greater loss of body mass. 5. A cross-fostering experiment showed that, independent of maternal coloration, foster chicks reared by vaccinated mothers were lighter than those reared by nonvaccinated mothers. Hence, even though dark reddish mothers suffered a stronger immune cost than pale reddish mothers, this asymmetric cost was not translated to offspring growth. 6. Our study suggests that different heritable melanin-based colorations are associated with alternative strategies to resist parasite attacks, with dark reddish individuals investing more resources towards the humoral immune response than lightly reddish conspecifics.