A systems and cybernetic perspective on complex problem solving

This thesis is concerned with Organisational Problem Solving. The work reflects the complexities of organisational problem situations and the eclectic approach that has been necessary to gain an understanding of the processes involved. The thesis is structured into three main parts. Part I describes the author's understanding of problems and suitable approaches. Chapter 2 identifies the Transcendental Realist (TR) view of science (Harre 1970, Bhaskar 1975) as the best general framework for identifying suitable approaches to complex organisational problems. Chapter 3 discusses the relationship between Checkland's methodology (1972) and TR. The need to generate iconic (explanatory) models of the problem situation is identified and the ability of viable system modelling to supplement the modelling stage of the methodology is explored in Chapter 4. Chapter 5 builds further on the methodology to produce an original iconic model of the methodological process. The model characterises the mechanisms of organisational problem situations as well as desirable procedural steps. The Weltanschauungen (W's) or "world views" of key actors is recognised as central to the mechanisms involved. Part II describes the experience which prompted the theoretical investigation. Chapter 6 describes the first year of the project. The success of this stage is attributed to the predominance of a single W. Chapter 7 describes the changes in the organisation which made the remaining phase of the project difficult. These difficulties are attributed to a failure to recognise the importance of differing W's. Part III revisits the theoretical and organisational issues. Chapter 8 identifies a range of techniques embodying W's which are compatible with .the framework of Part I and which might usefully supplement it. Chapter 9 characterises possible W's in the sponsoring organisation. Throughout the work, an attempt 1s made to reflect the process as well as the product of the author's leaving.

Deformation and failure of welded steels used in offshore constructions

Hydrocarbons are the most common form of energy used to date. The activities involving exploration and exploitation of large oil and gas fields are constantly in operation and have extended to such hostile environments as the North Sea. This enforces much greater demands on the materials which are used, and the need for enhancing the endurance of the existing ones which must continue parallel to the explorations. Due to their ease in fabrication, relatively high mechanical properties and low costs, steels are the most widely favoured material for the construction of offshore platforms. The most critical part of an offshore structure prone to failure are the welded nodal joints, particulary those which are used within the vicinity of the splash zones. This is an area of high complex stress concentrations, varying mechanical and metallurgical properties in addition to severe North Sea environmental conditions. The main are of this work has been concerned with the durability studies of this type of steel, based on the concept of the worst case analysis, consisting of combinations of welds of varying qualities, various degrees of stress concentrations and the environmental conditions of stress corrosion and hydrogen embrittlement. The experiments have been designed to reveal significance of defects as sites of crack initiation in the welded steels and the extent to which stress corrosion and hydrogen embrittlement will limit their durability. This has been done for various heat treatments and in some experiments deformation has been forced through the welded zone of the specimens to reveal the mechanical properties of the welds themselves to provide data for finite element simulations. A comparison of the results of these simulations with the actual deformation and fracture behaviour has been done to reveal the extent to which both mechanical and metallurgical factors control behaviour of the steels in the hostile environments of high stress, corrosion, and hydrogen embrittlement at their surface.

Failure in composite materials

The economic and efficient exploitation of composite materials in critical load bearing applications relies on the ability to predict safe operational lives without excessive conservatism. Developing life prediction and monitoring techniques in these complex, inhomogeneous materials requires an understanding of the various failure mechanisms which can take place. This article describes a range of damage mechanisms which are observed in polymer, metal and ceramic matrix composites.

Involvement of NADPH oxidases in cardiac remodelling and heart failure

Cardiac remodelling occurs in response to stress, such as chronic hypertension or myocardial infarction, and forms the substrate for subsequent development of heart failure. Key pathophysiological features include ventricular hypertrophy, interstitial fibrosis, contractile dysfunction, and chamber dilatation. Although the molecular mechanisms are complex and not fully defined, substantial evidence now implicates increased oxidative stress as being important. The NADPH oxidase ('Nox') enzymes are a particularly important source of reactive oxygen species that are implicated in redox signalling. This article reviews the evidence for an involvement of NADPH oxidases in different aspects of adverse cardiac remodelling. A better understanding of the roles of this complex enzyme family may define novel therapeutic targets for the prevention of heart failure. Copyright © 2007 S. Karger AG.

An Intelligent System for Investigations and Provision of Safety for Complex Constructions

Methodology of computer-aided investigation and provision of safety for complex constructions and a prototype of the intelligent applied system, which implements it, are considered. The methodology is determined by the model of the object under scrutiny, by the structure and functions of investigation of safety as well as by a set of research methods. The methods are based on the technologies of object-oriented databases, expert systems and on the mathematical modeling. The intelligent system’s prototype represents component software, which provides for support of decision making in the process of safety investigations and investigation of the cause of failure. Support of decision making is executed by analogy, by determined search for the precedents (cases) with respect to predicted (on the stage of design) and observed (on the stage of exploitation) parameters of the damage, destruction and malfunction of a complex hazardous construction.

Medical students' personal experience of high-stakes failure:case studies using interpretative phenomenological analysis

Abstract (provisional): Background Failing a high-stakes assessment at medical school is a major event for those who go through the experience. Students who fail at medical school may be more likely to struggle in professional practice, therefore helping individuals overcome problems and respond appropriately is important. There is little understanding about what factors influence how individuals experience failure or make sense of the failing experience in remediation. The aim of this study was to investigate the complexity surrounding the failure experience from the student’s perspective using interpretative phenomenological analysis (IPA). Methods The accounts of 3 medical students who had failed final re-sit exams, were subjected to in-depth analysis using IPA methodology. IPA was used to analyse each transcript case-by-case allowing the researcher to make sense of the participant’s subjective world. The analysis process allowed the complexity surrounding the failure to be highlighted, alongside a narrative describing how students made sense of the experience. Results The circumstances surrounding students as they approached assessment and experienced failure at finals were a complex interaction between academic problems, personal problems (specifically finance and relationships), strained relationships with friends, family or faculty, and various mental health problems. Each student experienced multi-dimensional issues, each with their own individual combination of problems, but experienced remediation as a one-dimensional intervention with focus only on improving performance in written exams. What these students needed to be included was help with clinical skills, plus social and emotional support. Fear of termination of the their course was a barrier to open communication with staff. Conclusions These students’ experience of failure was complex. The experience of remediation is influenced by the way in which students make sense of failing. Generic remediation programmes may fail to meet the needs of students for whom personal, social and mental health issues are a part of the picture.

Availability estimation and management for complex processing systems

“Availability” is the terminology used in asset intensive industries such as petrochemical and hydrocarbons processing to describe the readiness of equipment, systems or plants to perform their designed functions. It is a measure to suggest a facility’s capability of meeting targeted production in a safe working environment. Availability is also vital as it encompasses reliability and maintainability, allowing engineers to manage and operate facilities by focusing on one performance indicator. These benefits make availability a very demanding and highly desired area of interest and research for both industry and academia. In this dissertation, new models, approaches and algorithms have been explored to estimate and manage the availability of complex hydrocarbon processing systems. The risk of equipment failure and its effect on availability is vital in the hydrocarbon industry, and is also explored in this research. The importance of availability encouraged companies to invest in this domain by putting efforts and resources to develop novel techniques for system availability enhancement. Most of the work in this area is focused on individual equipment compared to facility or system level availability assessment and management. This research is focused on developing an new systematic methods to estimate system availability. The main focus areas in this research are to address availability estimation and management through physical asset management, risk-based availability estimation strategies, availability and safety using a failure assessment framework, and availability enhancement using early equipment fault detection and maintenance scheduling optimization.

Thick-walled composite tubes for offshore applications : an example of stress and failure analysis for filament-wound multi-layered pipes

Peer reviewed

Cascade failure analysis of power grid using new load distribution law and node removal rule

The work is supported in part by NSFC (Grant no. 61172070), IRT of Shaanxi Province (2013KCT-04), EPSRC (Grant no.Ep/1032606/1).

Thick-walled composite tubes for offshore applications : an example of stress and failure analysis for filament-wound multi-layered pipes

Peer reviewed

Cascade failure analysis of power grid using new load distribution law and node removal rule

The work is supported in part by NSFC (Grant no. 61172070), IRT of Shaanxi Province (2013KCT-04), EPSRC (Grant no.Ep/1032606/1).

Internal instability as a possible failure mechanism for layered composites

Funding Financial support of part of this research by The Royal Society, The Royal Society of Edinburgh, The Royal Academy of Engineering and The Carnegie Trust for the Universities of Scotland is gratefully acknowledged.

Thick-walled composite tubes for offshore applications : an example of stress and failure analysis for filament-wound multi-layered pipes

Peer reviewed

Predictive Analytics and Decision Support for Heart Failure patients

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08