Mortality following hip arthroplasty—inappropriate use of National Joint Registry (NJR) data

Mortality following hip arthroplasty is affected by a large number of confounding variables each of which must be considered to enable valid interpretation. Relevant variables available from the 2011 NJR data set were included in the Cox model. Mortality rates in hip arthroplasty patients were lower than in the age-matched population across all hip types. Age at surgery, ASA grade, diagnosis, gender, provider type, hip type and lead surgeon grade all had a significant effect on mortality. Schemper's statistic showed that only 18.98% of the variation in mortality was explained by the variables available in the NJR data set. It is inappropriate to use NJR data to study an outcome affected by a multitude of confounding variables when these cannot be adequately accounted for in the available data set.

Calculate excess mortality during heatwaves using Hilbert-Huang transform algorithm

Background Heatwaves could cause the population excess death numbers to be ranged from tens to thousands within a couple of weeks in a local area. An excess mortality due to a special event (e.g., a heatwave or an epidemic outbreak) is estimated by subtracting the mortality figure under ‘normal’ conditions from the historical daily mortality records. The calculation of the excess mortality is a scientific challenge because of the stochastic temporal pattern of the daily mortality data which is characterised by (a) the long-term changing mean levels (i.e., non-stationarity); (b) the non-linear temperature-mortality association. The Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) algorithm is a novel method originally developed for analysing the non-linear and non-stationary time series data in the field of signal processing, however, it has not been applied in public health research. This paper aimed to demonstrate the applicability and strength of the HHT algorithm in analysing health data. Methods Special R functions were developed to implement the HHT algorithm to decompose the daily mortality time series into trend and non-trend components in terms of the underlying physical mechanism. The excess mortality is calculated directly from the resulting non-trend component series. Results The Brisbane (Queensland, Australia) and the Chicago (United States) daily mortality time series data were utilized for calculating the excess mortality associated with heatwaves. The HHT algorithm estimated 62 excess deaths related to the February 2004 Brisbane heatwave. To calculate the excess mortality associated with the July 1995 Chicago heatwave, the HHT algorithm needed to handle the mode mixing issue. The HHT algorithm estimated 510 excess deaths for the 1995 Chicago heatwave event. To exemplify potential applications, the HHT decomposition results were used as the input data for a subsequent regression analysis, using the Brisbane data, to investigate the association between excess mortality and different risk factors. Conclusions The HHT algorithm is a novel and powerful analytical tool in time series data analysis. It has a real potential to have a wide range of applications in public health research because of its ability to decompose a nonlinear and non-stationary time series into trend and non-trend components consistently and efficiently.

Pattern analysis of the diversity of morphological plant attributes and herbage yield in a world collection of white clover (Trifolium repens L.) germplasm characterised in a summer moisture stress environment of Australia

Information on the variation available for different plant attributes has enabled germplasm collections to be effectively utilised in plant breeding. A world sourced collection of white clover germplasm has been developed at the White Clover Resource Centre at Glen Innes, New South Wales. This collection of 439 accessions was characterised under field conditions as a preliminary study of the genotypic variation for morphological attributes; stolon density, stolon branching, number of nodes. number of rooted nodes, stolon thickness, internode length, leaf length, plant height and plant spread, together with seasonal herbage yield. Characterisation was conducted on different batches of germplasm (subsets of accessions taken from the complete collection) over a period of five years. Inclusion of two check cultivars, Haifa and Huia, in each batch enabled adjustment of the characterisation data for year effects and attribute-by-year interaction effects. The component of variance for seasonal herbage yield among batches was large relative to that for accessions. Accession-by-experiment and accession-by-season interactions for herbage yield were not detected. Accession mean repeatability for herbage yield across seasons was intermediate (0.453). The components of genotypic variance among accessions for all attributes, except plant height, were larger than their respective standard errors. The estimates of accession mean repeatability for the attributes ranged from low (0.277 for plant height) to intermediate (0.544 for internode length). Multivariate techniques of clustering and ordination were used to investigate the diversity present among the accessions in the collection. Both cluster analysis and principal component analysis suggested that seven groups of accessions existed. It was also proposed from the pattern analysis results that accessions from a group characterised by large leaves, tall plants and thick stolons could be crossed with accessions from a group that had above average stolon density and stolon branching. This material could produce breeding populations to be used in recurrent selection for the development of white clover cultivars for dryland summer moisture stress environments in Australia. The germplasm collection was also found to be deficient in genotypes with high stolon density, high number of branches high number of rooted nodes and large leaves. This warrants addition of new germplasm accessions possessing these characteristics to the present germplasm collection.

Parent's socio-economic status and social support as risks for child mortality : consideration of health equity in The Gambia

A matched case-control study of mortality to children under age five was conducted to consider associations with parents' socio-economic status and social support in the Farafenni Demographic Surveillance Site (DSS). Cases and controls were selected from Farafenni DSS, matched on date of birth, and parents were interviewed about personal resources and social networks. Parents with the lowest personal socio-economic status and social support were identified. Multivariate multinomial regression was used to consider whether the children of these parents were at increased risk of either infant or 1-4 mortality, in separate models using either parents' characteristics. There was no benefit found for higher SES or better social support with respect to child mortality. Children of fathers who had the poorest social support had lower 1-4 mortality risk (OR=0.52, p=0.037). Given that socio-economic status was not associated with child mortality, it seems unlikely that the explanation for the link between father's social support and mortality is linked to resource availability. Explanations for the risk effect of father's social ties may lie in decision-making around health maintenance and health care for children.

In-hospital mortality rates after a cemented femoral component for displaced neck of femur fractures

Aim This prospective cohort study investigated whether the use of preoperative anticoagulants is an independent risk factor for the outcomes of surgical treatment of patients with a neck of femur fracture. Methods Data was obtained from a prospectively collected database. All patients admitted for a neck of femur fracture between Nov 2010 and Oct 2011 were included. This resulted in three hundred twenty-eight patients with 330 neck of femur fractures. Four groups were defined; patients preoperatively (i) on aspirin (n = 105); (ii) on clopidogrel (n = 28); (iii) on warfarin (n = 30), and; (iv) without any anticoagulation history (n = 167, the control group). The non-warfarin group included the aspirin group, clopidogrel group and the control group. Primary outcome was the in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes were the postoperative complications, return to theatre and length of stay. Results Thirteen in-hospital deaths were identified, 4 deaths in the aspirin group, 1 death in the clopidogrel group, 2 deaths in the warfarin group and 6 deaths in the control group. No significant difference in the mortality rates was found between the different groups. Also in the secondary outcomes, no significant difference was found between the four groups. A trend to a higher wound complication rate for the warfarin group was detected. Conclusion The use of clopidrogel or aspirin pre operatively is not an influence on short term patient outcome for patients with a neck of femur fracture. Surgical procedures should not be delayed to reverse their influence.

Assessment of the mortality displacement in temperature-related deaths in Brisbane, Australia

This thesis is a population-based ecological study designed to investigate the issue of mortality displacement (or "harvesting" effect) in the assessment of temperature-related deaths in Brisbane, Australia. It examines the temperature impacts on mortality, and assesses the harvesting effects on the temperature–related deaths. This study contributes to the knowledge base of understanding the temperature-mortality relationship and assists in formulating and evaluating public health intervention strategies within the context of climate change.

Prognostic validity of 3-Minute Nutrition Screening (3-MinNS) in predicting length of hospital stay, readmission, cost of hospitalisation and mortality : a cohort study

Background: It is important to identify patients who are at risk of malnutrition upon hospital admission as malnutrition results in poor outcomes such as longer length of hospital stay, readmission, hospitalisation cost and mortality. The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic validity of 3-Minute Nutrition Screening (3-MinNS) in predicting hospital outcomes in patients admitted to an acute tertiary hospital through a list of diagnosis-related groups (DRG). Methods: In this study, 818 adult patients were screened for risk of malnutrition using 3-MinNS within 24 hours of admission. Mortality data was collected from the National Registry with other hospitalisation outcomes retrieved from electronic hospital records. The results were adjusted for age, gender and ethnicity, and matched for DRG. Results: Patients identified to be at risk of malnutrition (37%) using 3-MinNS had significant positive association with longer length of hospital stay (6.6 ± 7.1 days vs. 4.5 ± 5.5 days, p<0.001), higher hospitalisation cost (S$4540 ± 7190 vs. S$3630 ± 4961, p<0.001) and increased mortality rate at 1 year (27.8% vs. 3.9%), 2 years (33.8% vs. 7.2%) and 3 years (39.1% vs. 10.5%); p<0.001 for all. Conclusions: The 3-MinNS is able to predict clinical outcomes and can be used to screen newly admitted patients for nutrition risk so that appropriate nutrition assessment and early nutritional intervention can be initiated.

Provincial mortality in South Africa, 2000 - priority-setting for now and a benchmark for the future

Background. Cause-of-death statistics are an essential component of health information. Despite improvements, underregistration and misclassification of causes make it difficult to interpret the official death statistics. Objective. To estimate consistent cause-specific death rates for the year 2000 and to identify the leading causes of death and premature mortality in the provinces. Methods. Total number of deaths and population size were estimated using the Actuarial Society of South Africa ASSA2000 AIDS and demographic model. Cause-of-death profiles based on Statistics South Africa's 15% sample, adjusted for misclassification of deaths due to ill-defined causes and AIDS deaths due to indicator conditions, were applied to the total deaths by age and sex. Age-standardised rates and years of life lost were calculated using age weighting and discounting. Results. Life expectancy in KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga is about 10 years lower than that in the Western Cape, the province with the lowest mortality rate. HIV/AIDS is the leading cause of premature mortality for all provinces. Mortality due to pre-transitional causes, such as diarrhoea, is more pronounced in the poorer and more rural provinces. In contrast, non-communicable disease mortality is similar across all provinces, although the cause profiles differ. Injury mortality rates are particularly high in provinces with large metropolitan areas and in Mpumalanga. Conclusion. The quadruple burden experienced in all provinces requires a broad range of interventions, including improved access to health care; ensuring that basic needs such as those related to water and sanitation are met; disease and injury prevention; and promotion of a healthy lifestyle. High death rates as a result of HIV/AIDS highlight the urgent need to accelerate the implementation of the treatment and prevention plan. In addition, there is an urgent need to improve the cause-of-death data system to provide reliable cause-of-death statistics at health district level.

Mortality attributable to smoking in Vietnamese men in 2008

Objective Smoking prevalence among Vietnamese men is among the highest in the world. Our aim was to provide estimates of tobacco attributable mortality to support tobacco control policies. Method We used the Peto–Lopez method using lung cancer mortality to derive a Smoking Impact Ratio (SIR) as a marker of cumulative exposure to smoking. SIRs were applied to relative risks from the Cancer Prevention Study, Phase II. Prevalence-based and hybrid methods, using the SIR for cancers and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and smoking prevalence for all other outcomes, were used in sensitivity analyses. Results When lung cancer was used to measure cumulative smoking exposure, 28% (95% uncertainty interval 24–31%) of all adult male deaths (> 35 years) in Vietnam in 2008 were attributable to smoking. Lower estimates resulted from prevalence-based methods [24% (95% uncertainty interval 21–26%)] with the hybrid method yielding intermediate estimates [26% (95% uncertainty interval 23–28%)]. Conclusion Despite uncertainty in these estimates of attributable mortality, tobacco smoking is already a major risk factor for death in Vietnamese men. Given the high current prevalence of smoking, this has important implications not only for preventing the uptake of tobacco but also for immediate action to adopt and enforce stronger tobacco control measures.