Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following stratospheric sudden warmings

Advances in seasonal forecasting have brought widespread socio-economic benefits. However, seasonal forecast skill in the extratropics is relatively modest, prompting the seasonal forecasting community to search for additional sources of predictability. For over a decade it has been suggested that knowledge of the state of the stratosphere can act as a source of enhanced seasonal predictability; long-lived circulation anomalies in the lower stratosphere that follow stratospheric sudden warmings are associated with circulation anomalies in the troposphere that can last up to two months. Here, we show by performing retrospective ensemble model forecasts that such enhanced predictability can be realized in a dynamical seasonal forecast system with a good representation of the stratosphere. When initialized at the onset date of stratospheric sudden warmings, the model forecasts faithfully reproduce the observed mean tropospheric conditions in the months following the stratospheric sudden warmings. Compared with an equivalent set of forecasts that are not initialized during stratospheric sudden warmings, we document enhanced forecast skill for atmospheric circulation patterns, surface temperatures over northern Russia and eastern Canada and North Atlantic precipitation. We suggest that seasonal forecast systems initialized during stratospheric sudden warmings are likely to yield significantly greater forecast skill in some regions.

Impact of sudden Arctic sea-ice loss on stratospheric polar ozone recovery

We investigate the sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere polar ozone recovery to a scenario in which there is rapid loss of Arctic summer sea ice in the first half of the 21st century. The issue is addressed by coupling a chemistry climate model to an ocean general circulation model and performing simulations of ozone recovery with, and without, an external perturbation designed to cause a rapid and complete loss of summertime Arctic sea ice. Under this extreme perturbation, the stratospheric response takes the form of a springtime polar cooling which is dynamical rather than radiative in origin, and is caused by reduced wave forcing from the troposphere. The response lags the onset of the sea-ice perturbation by about one decade and lasts for more than two decades, and is associated with an enhanced weakening of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The stratospheric dynamical response leads to a 10 DU reduction in polar column ozone, which is statistically robust. While this represents a modest loss, it has the potential to induce a delay of roughly one decade in Arctic ozone recovery estimates made in the 2006 Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion.

Impact of climate change on stratospheric sudden warmings as simulated by the Canadian middle atmosphere model

The dynamics of Northern Hemisphere major midwinter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are examined using transient climate change simulations from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM). The simulated SSWs show good overall agreement with reanalysis data in terms of composite structure, statistics, and frequency. Using observed or model sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is found to make no significant difference to the SSWs, indicating that the use of model SSTs in the simulations extending into the future is not an issue. When SSWs are defined by the standard (wind based) definition, an absolute criterion, their frequency is found to increase by;60% by the end of this century, in conjunction with a;25% decrease in their temperature amplitude. However, when a relative criterion based on the northern annular mode index is used to define the SSWs, no future increase in frequency is found. The latter is consistent with the fact that the variance of 100-hPa daily heat flux anomalies is unaffected by climate change. The future increase in frequency of SSWs using the standard method is a result of the weakened climatological mean winds resulting from climate change, which make it easier for the SSW criterion to be met. A comparison of winters with and without SSWs reveals that the weakening of the climatological westerlies is not a result of SSWs. The Brewer–Dobson circulation is found to be stronger by ;10% during winters with SSWs, which is a value that does not change significantly in the future.

Zonal-mean dynamics of extended recoveries from stratospheric sudden warmings

The recovery of the Arctic polar vortex following stratospheric sudden warmings is found to take upward of 3 months in a particular subset of cases, termed here polar-night jet oscillation (PJO) events. The anomalous zonal-mean circulation above the pole during this recovery is characterized by a persistently warm lower stratosphere, and above this a cold midstratosphere and anomalously high stratopause, which descends as the event unfolds. Composites of these events in the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model show the persistence of the lower-stratospheric anomaly is a result of strongly suppressed wave driving and weak radiative cooling at these heights. The upper-stratospheric and lower-mesospheric anomalies are driven immediately following the warming by anomalous planetary-scale eddies, following which, anomalous parameterized nonorographic and orographic gravity waves play an important role. These details are found to be robust for PJO events (as opposed to sudden warmings in general) in that many details of individual PJO events match the composite mean. Azonal-mean quasigeostrophic model on the sphere is shown to reproduce the response to the thermal and mechanical forcings produced during a PJO event. The former is well approximated by Newtonian cooling. The response can thus be considered as a transient approach to the steady-state, downward control limit. In this context, the time scale of the lower-stratospheric anomaly is determined by the transient, radiative response to the extended absence of wave driving. The extent to which the dynamics of the wave-driven descent of the stratopause can be considered analogous to the descending phases of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is also discussed.

Satellite observations and modeling of transport in the upper troposphere through the lower mesosphere during the 2006 major stratospheric sudden warming

An unusually strong and prolonged stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) in January 2006 was the first major SSW for which globally distributed long-lived trace gas data are available covering the upper troposphere through the lower mesosphere. We use Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) data, the SLIMCAT Chemistry Transport Model (CTM), and assimilated meteorological analyses to provide a comprehensive picture of transport during this event. The upper tropospheric ridge that triggered the SSW was associated with an elevated tropopause and layering in trace gas profiles in conjunction with stratospheric and tropospheric intrusions. Anomalous poleward transport (with corresponding quasi-isentropic troposphere-to-stratosphere exchange at the lowest levels studied) in the region over the ridge extended well into the lower stratosphere. In the middle and upper stratosphere, the breakdown of the polar vortex transport barrier was seen in a signature of rapid, widespread mixing in trace gases, including CO, H2O, CH4 and N2O. The vortex broke down slightly later and more slowly in the lower than in the middle stratosphere. In the middle and lower stratosphere, small remnants with trace gas values characteristic of the pre-SSW vortex lingered through the weak and slow recovery of the vortex. The upper stratospheric vortex quickly reformed, and, as enhanced diabatic descent set in, CO descended into this strong vortex, echoing the fall vortex development. Trace gas evolution in the SLIMCAT CTM agrees well with that in the satellite trace gas data from the upper troposphere through the middle stratosphere. In the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere, the SLIMCAT simulation does not capture the strong descent of mesospheric CO and H2O values into the reformed vortex; this poor CTM performance in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere results primarily from biases in the diabatic descent in assimilated analyses.

Response time of the high-latitude dayside ionosphere to sudden changes in the north-south component of the IMF

The time scale of the response of the high-latitude dayside ionospheric flow to changes in the North-South component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) has been investigated by examining the time delays between corresponding sudden changes. Approximately 40 h of simultaneous IMF and ionospheric flow data have been examined, obtained by the AMPTE-UKS and -IRM spacecraft and the EISCAT “Polar” experiment, respectively, in which 20 corresponding sudden changes have been identified. Ten of these changes were associated with southward turnings of the IMF, and 10 with northward turnings. It has been found that the corresponding flow changes occurred simultaneously over the whole of the “Polar” field-of-view, extending more than 2° in invariant latitude, and that the ionospheric response delay following northward turnings is the same as that following southward turnings, though the form of the response is different in the two cases. The shortest response time, 5.5 ± 3.2 min, is found in the early- to mid-afternoon sector, increasing to 9.5 ± 3.0 min in the mid-morning sector, and to 9.5 ± 3.1 min near to dusk. These times represent the delays in the appearance of perturbed flows in the “Polar” field-of-view following the arrival of IMF changes at the subsolar magnetopause. Overall, the results agree very well with those derived by Etemadi et al. (1988, Planet. Space Sci.36, 471) from a general cross-correlation analysis of the IMF Bz and “Polar” beam-swinging vector flow data.

The Hiccup: a dynamical coupling process during the autumn transition in the Northern Hemisphere – similarities and differences to sudden stratospheric warmings

Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are the most prominent vertical coupling process in the middle atmosphere, which occur during winter and are caused by the interaction of planetary waves (PWs) with the zonal mean flow. Vertical coupling has also been identified during the equinox transitions, and is similarly associated with PWs. We argue that there is a characteristic aspect of the autumn transition in northern high latitudes, which we call the “hiccup”, and which acts like a “mini SSW”, i.e. like a small minor warming. We study the average characteristics of the hiccup based on a superimposed epoch analysis using a nudged version of the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model, representing 30 years of historical data. Hiccups can be identified in about half the years studied. The mesospheric zonal wind results are compared to radar observations over Andenes (69N,16E) for the years 2000–2013. A comparison of the average characteristics of hiccups and SSWs shows both similarities and differences between the two vertical coupling processes.

Examining the predictability of the Stratospheric Sudden Warming of January 2013 using multiple NWP systems

The first multi-model study to estimate the predictability of a boreal Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is performed using five NWP systems. During the 2012-2013 boreal winter, anomalous upward propagating planetary wave activity was observed towards the end of December, which followed by a rapid deceleration of the westerly circulation around 2 January 2013, and on 7 January 2013 the zonal mean zonal wind at 60°N and 10 hPa reversed to easterly. This stratospheric dynamical activity was followed by an equatorward shift of the tropospheric jet stream and by a high pressure anomaly over the North Atlantic, which resulted in severe cold conditions in the UK and Northern Europe. In most of the five models, the SSW event was predicted 10 days in advance. However, only some ensemble members in most of the models predicted weakening of westerly wind when the models were initialized 15 days in advance of the SSW. Further dynamical analysis of the SSW shows that this event was characterized by the anomalous planetary wave-1 amplification followed by the anomalous wave-2 amplification in the stratosphere, which resulted in a split vortex occurring between 6 January 2013 and 8 January 2013. The models have some success in reproducing wave-1 activity when initialized 15 days in advance, they but generally failed to produce the wave-2 activity during the final days of the event. Detailed analysis shows that models have reasonably good skill in forecasting tropospheric blocking features that stimulate wave-2 amplification in the troposphere, but they have limited skill in reproducing wave-2 amplification in the stratosphere.

Unexpected genetic heterogeneity in a large consanguineous Brazilian pedigree presenting deafness

Nonsyndromic autosomal recessive deafness accounts for 80% of hereditary deafness. To date, 52 loci responsible for autosomal recessive deafness have been mapped and 24 genes identified. Here, we report a large inbred Brazilian pedigree with 26 subjects affected by prelingual deafness. Given the extensive consanguinity found in this pedigree, the most probable pattern of inheritance is autosomal recessive. However, our linkage and mutational analysis revealed, instead of an expected homozygous mutation in a single gene, two different mutant alleles and a possible third undetected mutant allele in the MYO15A gene (DFNB3 locus), as well as evidence for other causes for deafness in the same pedigree. Among the 26 affected subjects, 15 were homozygous for the novel c.10573delA mutation in the MYO15A gene, 5 were compound heterozygous for the mutation c.10573delA and the novel deletion c.9957_9960delTGAC and one inherited only a single c.10573delA mutant allele, while the other one could not be identified. Given the extensive consanguinity of the pedigree, there might be at least one more deafness locus segregating to explain the condition in some of the subjects whose deafness is not clearly associated with MYO15A mutations, although overlooked environmental causes could not be ruled out. Our findings illustrate a high level of etiological heterogeneity for deafness in the family and highlight some of the pitfalls of genetic analysis of large genes in extended pedigrees, when homozygosity for a single mutant allele is expected.

Sudden stratospheric warmings seen in MINOS deep underground muon data

The rate of high energy cosmic ray muons as measured underground is shown to be strongly correlated with upper-air temperatures during short-term atmospheric (10-day) events. The effects are seen by correlating data from the MINOS underground detector and temperatures from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts during the winter periods from 2003-2007. This effect provides an independent technique for the measurement of meteorological conditions and presents a unique opportunity to measure both short and long-term changes in this important part of the atmosphere. Citation: Osprey, S., et al. (2009), Sudden stratospheric warmings seen in MINOS deep underground muon data, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L05809, doi: 10.1029/2008GL036359.

Universality of sudden death of entanglement

We present a constructive argument to demonstrate the universality of the sudden death of entanglement in the case of two non-interacting qubits, each of which generically coupled to independent Markovian environments at zero temperature. Conditions for the occurrence of the abrupt disappearance of entanglement are determined and, most importantly, rigourously shown to be almost always satisfied: Dynamical models for which the sudden death of entanglement does not occur are seen to form a highly idealized zero-measure subset within the set of all possible quantum dynamics.

Entanglement degree measure and a criterion for sudden death as a phase transition in bipartite systems

We propose a method to compute the entanglement degree E of bipartite systems having dimension 2 x 2 and demonstrate that the partial transposition of density matrix, the Peres criterion, arise as a consequence Of Our method. Differently from other existing measures of entanglement, the one presented here makes possible the derivation of a criterion to verify if an arbitrary bipartite entanglement will suffers sudden death (SD) based only on the initial-state parameters. Our method also makes possible to characterize the SD as a dynamical quantum phase transition, with order parameter epsilon. having a universal critical exponent -1/2. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Proteomic analysis reveals suppression of bark chitinases and proteinase inhibitors in citrus plants affected by the citrus sudden death disease

Citrus sudden death (CSD) is a disease of unknown etiology that greatly affects sweet oranges grafted on Rangpur lime rootstock, the most important rootstock in Brazilian citriculture. We performed a proteomic analysis to generate information related to this plant pathogen interaction. Protein profiles from healthy, CSD-affected and CSD-tolerant stem barks, were generated using two-dimensional gel electrophoresis. The protein spots were well distributed over a pI range of 3.26 to 9.97 and a molecular weight (MW) range from 7.1 to 120 kDa. The patterns of expressed proteins on 2-DE gels made it possible to distinguish healthy barks from CSD-affected barks. Protein spots with MW around 30 kDa and pI values ranging from 4.5 to 5.2 were down-regulated in the CSD-affected rootstock bark. This set of protein spots was identified as chitinases. Another set of proteins, ranging in pI from 6.1 to 9.6 with an MW of about 20 kDa, were also suppressed in CSD-affected rootstock bark; these were identified as miraculin-like proteins, potential trypsin inhibitors. Downregulation of chitinases and proteinase inhibitors in CSD-affected plants is relevant since chitinases are well-known pathogenesis-related protein, and their activity against plant pathogens is largely accepted.

Nuclear magnetic resonance characterization of metabolite disorder in orange trees caused by citrus sudden death disease

Citrus sudden death (CSD) is a new disease of sweet orange and mandarin trees grafted on Rangpur lime and Citrus volkameriana rootstocks. It was first seen in Brazil in 1999, and has since been detected in more than four million trees. The CSD causal agent is unknown and the current hypothesis involves a virus similar to Citrus tristeza virus or a new virus named Citrus sudden death-associated virus. CSD symptoms include generalized foliar discoloration, defoliation and root death, and, in most cases, it can cause tree death. One of the unique characteristics of CSD disease is the presence of a yellow stain in the rootstock bark near the bud union. This region also undergoes profound anatomical changes. In this study, we analyse the metabolic disorder caused by CSD in the bark of sweet orange grafted on Rangpur lime by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy and imaging. The imaging results show the presence of a large amount of non-functional phloem in the rootstock bark of affected plants. The spectroscopic analysis shows a high content of triacylglyceride and sucrose, which may be related to phloem blockage close to the bud union. We also propose that, without knowing the causal CSD agent, the determination of oil content in rootstock bark by low-resolution NMR can be used as a complementary method for CSD diagnosis, screening about 300 samples per hour.