Incomplete information games of conflict and collective action

My thesis consists of three essays that investigate strategic interactions between individuals engaging in risky collective action in uncertain environments. The first essay analyzes a broad class of incomplete information coordination games with a wide range of applications in economics and politics. The second essay draws from the general model developed in the first essay to study decisions by individuals of whether to engage in protest/revolution/coup/strike. The final essay explicitly integrates state response to the analysis. The first essay, Coordination Games with Strategic Delegation of Pivotality, exhaustively analyzes a class of binary action, two-player coordination games in which players receive stochastic payoffs only if both players take a ``stochastic-coordination action''. Players receive conditionally-independent noisy private signals about the normally distributed stochastic payoffs. With this structure, each player can exploit the information contained in the other player's action only when he takes the “pivotalizing action”. This feature has two consequences: (1) When the fear of miscoordination is not too large, in order to utilize the other player's information, each player takes the “pivotalizing action” more often than he would based solely on his private information, and (2) best responses feature both strategic complementarities and strategic substitutes, implying that the game is not supermodular nor a typical global game. This class of games has applications in a wide range of economic and political phenomena, including war and peace, protest/revolution/coup/ strike, interest groups lobbying, international trade, and adoption of a new technology. My second essay, Collective Action with Uncertain Payoffs, studies the decision problem of citizens who must decide whether to submit to the status quo or mount a revolution. If they coordinate, they can overthrow the status quo. Otherwise, the status quo is preserved and participants in a failed revolution are punished. Citizens face two types of uncertainty. (a) non-strategic: they are uncertain about the relative payoffs of the status quo and revolution, (b) strategic: they are uncertain about each other's assessments of the relative payoff. I draw on the existing literature and historical evidence to argue that the uncertainty in the payoffs of status quo and revolution is intrinsic in politics. Several counter-intuitive findings emerge: (1) Better communication between citizens can lower the likelihood of revolution. In fact, when the punishment for failed protest is not too harsh and citizens' private knowledge is accurate, then further communication reduces incentives to revolt. (2) Increasing strategic uncertainty can increase the likelihood of revolution attempts, and even the likelihood of successful revolution. In particular, revolt may be more likely when citizens privately obtain information than when they receive information from a common media source. (3) Two dilemmas arise concerning the intensity and frequency of punishment (repression), and the frequency of protest. Punishment Dilemma 1: harsher punishments may increase the probability that punishment is materialized. That is, as the state increases the punishment for dissent, it might also have to punish more dissidents. It is only when the punishment is sufficiently harsh, that harsher punishment reduces the frequency of its application. Punishment Dilemma 1 leads to Punishment Dilemma 2: the frequencies of repression and protest can be positively or negatively correlated depending on the intensity of repression. My third essay, The Repression Puzzle, investigates the relationship between the intensity of grievances and the likelihood of repression. First, I make the observation that the occurrence of state repression is a puzzle. If repression is to succeed, dissidents should not rebel. If it is to fail, the state should concede in order to save the costs of unsuccessful repression. I then propose an explanation for the “repression puzzle” that hinges on information asymmetries between the state and dissidents about the costs of repression to the state, and hence the likelihood of its application by the state. I present a formal model that combines the insights of grievance-based and political process theories to investigate the consequences of this information asymmetry for the dissidents' contentious actions and for the relationship between the magnitude of grievances (formulated here as the extent of inequality) and the likelihood of repression. The main contribution of the paper is to show that this relationship is non-monotone. That is, as the magnitude of grievances increases, the likelihood of repression might decrease. I investigate the relationship between inequality and the likelihood of repression in all country-years from 1981 to 1999. To mitigate specification problem, I estimate the probability of repression using a generalized additive model with thin-plate splines (GAM-TPS). This technique allows for flexible relationship between inequality, the proxy for the costs of repression and revolutions (income per capita), and the likelihood of repression. The empirical evidence support my prediction that the relationship between the magnitude of grievances and the likelihood of repression is non-monotone.

States' Responding Behavior in Conflict: Asymmetric Response and Strategic Conflict Avoidance

State responses to external threats and aggression are studied with focus on two different rationales: (1) to make credible deterrent threats to avoid being exploited, and (2) to minimize the risk of escalation to unwanted war. Given external aggression, the target state's responding behavior has three possibilities: concession (under-response), reciprocation, and escalation. This study focuses on the first two possibilities and investigates how the strategic nature of crisis interaction can explain the intentional choice of concession or avoidance of retaliation. I build a two-level bargaining model that accounts for the domestic bargaining situation between the leader and the challenger for each state. The model's equilibrium shows that the responding behavior is determined not only by inter-state level variables (e.g. balance of power between two states, or cost of war that each state is supposed to pay), but also the domestic variables of both states. Next, the strategic interaction is rationally explained by the model: as the responding state believes that the initiating state has strong domestic challenges and, hence, the aggression is believed to be initiated for domestic political purposes (a rally-around-the-flag effect), the response tends to decrease. The concession is also predicted if the target state leader has strong bargaining power against her domestic challengers \emph{and} she believes that the initiating leader suffers from weak domestic standing. To test the model's prediction, I conduct a lab experiment and case studies. The experimental result shows that under an incentivized bargaining situation, individual actors are observed to react to hostile action as the model predicts: if the opponent is believed to suffer from internally driven difficulties, the subject will not punish hostile behavior of the other player as severely as she would without such a belief. The experiment also provides supporting evidence for the choice of concession: when the player finds herself in a favorable situation while the other has disadvantages, the player is more likely to make concessions in the controlled dictator game. Two cases are examined to discuss how the model can explain the choice of either reciprocation or concession. From personal interviews and fieldwork in South Korea, I find that South Korea's reciprocating behavior during the 2010 Yeonpyeong Island incident is explained by a combination of `low domestic power of initiating leader (Kim Jong-il)' and `low domestic power of responding leader (Lee Myung-bak).' On the other hand, the case of EC-121 is understood as a non-response or concession outcome. Declassified documents show that Nixon and his key advisors interpreted the attack as a result of North Korea's domestic political instabilities (low domestic power of initiating leader) and that Nixon did not have difficulties at domestic politics during the first few months of his presidency (high domestic power of responding leader).

Building bridges for innovation in ageing:synergies between action groups of the EIP on AHA

The Strategic Implementation Plan of the European Innovation Partnership on Active and Healthy Ageing (EIP on AHA) proposed six Action Groups. After almost three years of activity, many achievements have been obtained through commitments or collaborative work of the Action Groups. However, they have often worked in silos and, consequently, synergies between Action Groups have been proposed to strengthen the triple win of the EIP on AHA. The paper presents the methodology and current status of the Task Force on EIP on AHA synergies. Synergies are in line with the Action Groups’ new Renovated Action Plan (2016-2018) to ensure that their future objectives are coherent and fully connected. The outcomes and impact of synergies are using the Monitoring and Assessment Framework for the EIP on AHA (MAFEIP). Eight proposals for synergies have been approved by the Task Force: Five cross-cutting synergies which can be used for all current and future synergies as they consider overarching domains (appropriate polypharmacy, citizen empowerment, teaching and coaching on AHA, deployment of synergies to EU regions, Responsible Research and Innovation), and three cross-cutting synergies focussing on current Action Group activities (falls, frailty, integrated care and chronic respiratory diseases).

DHEC strategic plan

This short strategic plan explains the agency's vision, mission and core values. It's agency strategies are broken down into five strategic focus areas, the imperatives that unite its teams, align its work, and enable the agency to move forward in our ambitious mission. Those five strategies are: education and engagement, science in action, leadership and contribution, service and accessibility and operational excellence.

Open Education and OER - A guide and call to action for policy makers

Executive Summary ALT has produced this call to action to highlight to education policy makers and professionals how Open Education and OER can expand inclusive and equitable access to education and lifelong learning, widen participation, and create new opportunities for the next generation of teachers and learners, preparing them to become fully engaged digital citizens. Open Education can also promote knowledge transfer while enhancing quality and sustainability, supporting social inclusion and creating a culture of inter-institutional collaboration and sharing. One of ALT’s three strategic aims is to increase the impact of Learning Technology for the wider community and we are issuing this call to action for policy makers to mandate that publicly funded educational resources are released under open licence to ensure that they reside in the public domain and are freely and openly available to all. This will be of wide benefit, but in particular will enable education providers and learning technology professionals to: Keep up to date with the rapid pace of technological innovation Develop critical, informed approaches to the implementation of Learning Technology and the impact on learners Scale up knowledge sharing and its benefits across sectors.

Direct Visualization Of The Action Of Triton X-100 On Giant Vesicles Of Erythrocyte Membrane Lipids.

The raft hypothesis proposes that microdomains enriched in sphingolipids, cholesterol, and specific proteins are transiently formed to accomplish important cellular tasks. Equivocally, detergent-resistant membranes were initially assumed to be identical to membrane rafts, because of similarities between their compositions. In fact, the impact of detergents in membrane organization is still controversial. Here, we use phase contrast and fluorescence microscopy to observe giant unilamellar vesicles (GUVs) made of erythrocyte membrane lipids (erythro-GUVs) when exposed to the detergent Triton X-100 (TX-100). We clearly show that TX-100 has a restructuring action on biomembranes. Contact with TX-100 readily induces domain formation on the previously homogeneous membrane of erythro-GUVs at physiological and room temperatures. The shape and dynamics of the formed domains point to liquid-ordered/liquid-disordered (Lo/Ld) phase separation, typically found in raft-like ternary lipid mixtures. The Ld domains are then separated from the original vesicle and completely solubilized by TX-100. The insoluble vesicle left, in the Lo phase, represents around 2/3 of the original vesicle surface at room temperature and decreases to almost 1/2 at physiological temperature. This chain of events could be entirely reproduced with biomimetic GUVs of a simple ternary lipid mixture, 2:1:2 POPC/SM/chol (phosphatidylcholine/sphyngomyelin/cholesterol), showing that this behavior will arise because of fundamental physicochemical properties of simple lipid mixtures. This work provides direct visualization of TX-100-induced domain formation followed by selective (Ld phase) solubilization in a model system with a complex biological lipid composition.

Presynaptic Neuromuscular Action Of A Methanolic Extract From The Venom Of Rhinella Schneideri Toad.

Rhinella schneideri, previously known as Bufo paracnemis, is a common toad in many regions of Brazil. Its venom exerts important cardiovascular effects on humans and other animals. Although this toad venom has been the subject of intense investigations, little is known about its neuromuscular activity. The neurotoxicity of a methanolic extract of R. schneideri venom was tested on mouse phrenic nerve-diaphragm (PND) preparations mounted for conventional twitch tension recording - in response to indirect stimulation - and for electrophysiological measurements. Venom extract (50 μg/mL) increased the muscle twitch tension in PND preparations but did not significantly alter the resting membrane potential values. Electrophysiological evaluations showed that the extract (50 μg/mL) significantly augmented the frequency of miniature end-plate potential (from 38 ± 3.5 to 88 ± 15 after 60 minutes; n = 5; p < 0.05) and quantal content (from 128 ± 13 to 272 ± 34 after five minutes; n = 5; p < 0.05). Pretreatment with ouabain (1 μg/mL) for five minutes prevented the increase in quantal content (117 ± 18 and 154 ± 33 after five and 60 minutes, respectively). These results indicate that the methanolic extract of R. schneideri venom acts primarily presynaptically to enhance neurotransmitter release in mouse phrenic-diaphragm preparations.

[lay Agency And Healthcare: Producing Healthcare Maps].

This study aimed to characterize which regulatory logics (other than government regulation) result in healthcare output, using a two-stage qualitative study in two municipalities in the ABCD Paulista region in São Paulo State, Brazil. The first stage included interviews with strategic actors (managers and policymakers) and key health professionals. The second phase collected life histories from 18 individuals with high health-services utilization rates. An analysis of the researchers' involvement in the field allowed a better understanding of the narratives. Four regulatory systems were characterized (governmental, professional, clientelistic, and lay), indicating that regulation is a field in constant dispute, a social production. Users' action produces healthcare maps that reveal the existence of other possible health system arrangements, calling on us to test shared management of healthcare between health teams and users as a promising path to the urgent need to reinvent health.

Action Of Essential Oils From Brazilian Native And Exotic Medicinal Species On Oral Biofilms.

Essential oils (EO) obtained from twenty medicinal and aromatic plants were evaluated for their antimicrobial activity against the oral pathogens Candida albicans, Fusobacterium nucleatum, Porphyromonas gingivalis, Streptococcus sanguis and Streptococcus mitis. The antimicrobial activity of the EO was evaluates by microdilution method determining Minimal Inhibitory Concentration. Chemical analysis of the oils compounds was performed by Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (CG-MS). The most active EO were also investigated as to their actions on the biolfilm formation. The most of the essential oils (EO) presented moderate to strong antimicrobial activity against the oral pathogens (MIC--Minimal Inhibitory Concentrations values between 0.007 and 1.00 mg/mL). The essential oil from Coriandrum sativum inhibited all oral species with MIC values from 0.007 to 0.250 mg/mL, and MBC/MFC (Minimal Bactericidal/Fungicidal Concentrations) from 0.015 to 0.500 mg/mL. On the other hand the essential oil of C. articulatus inhibited 63.96% of S. sanguis biofilm formation. Through Scanning Eletronic Microscopy (SEM) images no changes were observed in cell morphology, despite a decrease in biofilm formation and changes on biofilm structure. Chemical analysis by Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry (GC-MS) of the C. sativum essential oil revealed major compounds derivatives from alcohols and aldehydes, while Cyperus articulatus and Aloysia gratissima (EOs) presented mono and sesquiterpenes. In conclusion, the crude oil from C. articulatus exhibited the best results of antimicrobial activity e ability to control biofilm formation. The chemical analysis showed the presence of terpenes and monoterpenes such as a-pinene, a-bulnesene and copaene. The reduction of biofilms formation was confirmed from SEM images. The results of this research shows a great potential from the plants studied as new antimicrobial sources.

[strategies For Tackling Absenteeism In Dental Appointments In The Family Health Units Of A Large Municipality: Action Research].

The aim of this study was to analyze the reasons for missed appointments in dental Family Health Units (FHU) and implement strategies to reduce same through action research. This is a study conducted in 12 FHUs in Piracicaba in the State of São Paulo from January, 1 to December, 31 2010. The sample was composed of 385 users of these health units who were interviewed over the phone and asked about the reasons for missing dental appointments, as well as 12 dentists and 12 nurses. Two workshops were staged with professionals: the first to assess the data collected in interviews and develop strategy, and the second for evaluation after 4 months. The primary cause for missed appointments was the opening hours of the units coinciding with the work schedule of the users. Among the strategies suggested were lectures on oral health, ongoing education in team meetings, training of Community Health Agents, participation in therapeutic groups and partnerships between Oral Health Teams and the social infrastructure of the community. The adoption of the single medical record was the strategy proposed by professionals. The strategies implemented led to a 66.6% reduction in missed appointments by the units and the motivating nature of the workshops elicited critical reflection to redirect health practices.

A visão estrategico-tatica de tecnicos campeões da Liga Nacional de Futsal

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Na rede, pelo lado de fora? : Gestão matricial e politicas publicas de lazer na cidade de Santo Andre

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Nonquadratic gauge fixing and global gauge invariance in the effective action

The possibility of having a gauge fixing term in the effective Lagrangian that is not a quadratic expression has been explored in spin-two theories so as to have a propagator that is both traceless and transverse. We first show how this same approach can be used in spontaneously broken gauge theories as an alternate to the 't Hooft gauge fixing which avoids terms quadratic in the scalar fields. This ""nonquadratic"" gauge fixing in the effective action results in two complex fermionic and one real bosonic ghost field. A global gauge invariance involving a fermionic gauge parameter, analogous to the usual Becchi-Rouet-Stora-Tyutin invariance, is present in this effective action.

Ambiguities in the effective action in Lorentz-violating gravity

We investigate the occurrence of ambiguities for the Lorentz-violating gravitational Chern-Simons term. It turns out that this term is accompanied by a coefficient depending on an undetermined parameter, due to an arbitrariness in the choice of the conserved current.