A nonlinear model for assessing multiple probabilistic risks: A case study in South five-island of Changdao National Nature Reserve in China

Several methods for estimating the potential impacts caused by multiple probabilistic risks have been suggested. These existing methods mostly rely on the weight sum algorithm to address the need for integrated risk assessment. This paper develops a nonlinear model to perform such an assessment. The joint probability algorithm has been applied to the model development. An application of the developed model in South five-island of Changdao National Nature Reserve, China, combining remote sensing data and a GIS technique, provides a reasonable risk assessment. Based on the case study, we discuss the feasibility of the model. We propose that the model has the potential for use in identifying the regional primary stressor, investigating the most vulnerable habitat, and assessing the integrated impact of multiple stressors. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ocean urea fertilization for carbon credits poses high ecological risks

The proposed plan for enrichment of the Sulu Sea, Philippines, a region of rich marine biodiversity, with thousands of tonnes of urea in order to stimulate algal blooms and sequester carbon is flawed for multiple reasons. Urea is preferentially used as a nitrogen source by some cyanobacteria and dinoflagellates, many of which are neutrally or positively buoyant. Biological pumps to the deep sea are classically leaky, and the inefficient burial of new biomass makes the estimation of a net loss of carbon from the atmosphere questionable at best. The potential for growth of toxic dinoflagellates is also high, as many grow well on urea and some even increase their toxicity when grown on urea. Many toxic dinoflagellates form cysts which can settle to the sediment and germinate in subsequent years, forming new blooms even without further fertilization. If large-scale blooms do occur, it is likely that they will contribute to hypoxia in the bottom waters upon decomposition. Lastly, urea production requires fossil fuel usage, further limiting the potential for net carbon sequestration. The environmental and economic impacts are potentially great and need to be rigorously assessed. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Workplace sedentary health risks and exercise interventions

Sedentary lifestyle and physical inactivity are causes of major health risks including cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes and cancer. Workplace is an ideal setting to understand both the prevalence of these risks and for devising and implementing effective intervention strategies. It is now possible to perform direct workplace assessments to identify the sedentary prevalence and assess the sedentary related health risks, which can include assessing the risks of atherosclerosis, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, hyperglyaemia and reduced cardiorespiratory capacity. Based on evaluating the workplace health risks, it is possible to identify individuals who may be at higher CVD risk so they can be targeted with a risk-reduction intervention that can also be tailored towards improving healthy behaviours, especially towards physical activity activity and exercise. This chapter explains workplace sedentary risks, and provides examples of CVD risk prevalence, particularly within the university campus workplace, and presents examples of an exercise based targeted interventions aimed at reducing CVD risks amongst high risk sedentary employees.

Rola wojsk specjalnych w systemie obronnym RP

Na przestrzeni ostatnich dwóch dekad wojska specjalne stały się ważnym elementem systemów obronnych wielu państw, wnosząc istotny wkład w prowadzone operacje wojskowe, oraz ogólny potencjał realizacji stawianych przed nimi zadań. Wynika to z unikalnych zdolności tego rodzaju wojsk, czyniących je szczególnie użytecznymi we współczesnym środowisku bezpieczeństwa międzynarodowego. Czynniki te zadecydowały również o daleko idącej ewolucji i dynamicznym rozwoju polskich Wojsk Specjalnych. Celem artykułu jest analiza użyteczności jednostek specjalnych dla realizacji zasadniczych misji Sil Zbrojnych RP (zapisanych w Strategii Obronności RP) oraz prezentacja perspektyw ich dalszego rozwoju (przez pryzmat szans, wyzwań, ryzyk i zagrożeń).

Valuing maternity care: a comparison of stated preference methods with an application to cost-benefit analysis

This research investigates whether a reconfiguration of maternity services, which collocates consultant- and midwifery-led care, reflects demand and value for money in Ireland. Qualitative and quantitative research is undertaken to investigate demand and an economic evaluation is performed to evaluate the costs and benefits of the different models of care. Qualitative research is undertaken to identify women’s motivations when choosing place of delivery. These data are further used to inform two stated preference techniques: a discrete choice experiment (DCE) and contingent valuation method (CVM). These are employed to identify women’s strengths of preferences for different features of care (DCE) and estimate women’s willingness to pay for maternity care (CVM), which is used to inform a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) on consultant- and midwifery-led care. The qualitative research suggests women do not have a clear preference for consultant or midwifery-led care, but rather a hybrid model of care which closely resembles the Domiciliary Care In and Out of Hospital (DOMINO) scheme. Women’s primary concern during care is safety, meaning women would only utilise midwifery-led care when co-located with consultant-led care. The DCE also finds women’s preferred package of care closely mirrors the DOMINO scheme with 39% of women expected to utilise this service. Consultant- and midwifery-led care would then be utilised by 34% and 27% of women, respectively. The CVM supports this hierarchy of preferences where consultant-led care is consistently valued more than midwifery-led care – women are willing to pay €956.03 for consultant-led care and €808.33 for midwifery-led care. A package of care for a woman availing of consultant- and midwifery-led care is estimated to cost €1,102.72 and €682.49, respectively. The CBA suggests both models of care are cost-beneficial and should be pursued in Ireland. This reconfiguration of maternity services would maximise women’s utility, while fulfilling important objectives of key government policy.

Polymorphisms in the ACE and ADRB2 genes and risks of aging-associated phenotypes: the case of myocardial infarction.

Multiple functions of the beta2-adrenergic receptor (ADRB2) and angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) genes warrant studies of their associations with aging-related phenotypes. We focus on multimarker analyses and analyses of the effects of compound genotypes of two polymorphisms in the ADRB2 gene, rs1042713 and rs1042714, and 11 polymorphisms of the ACE gene, on the risk of such an aging-associated phenotype as myocardial infarction (MI). We used the data from a genotyped sample of the Framingham Heart Study Offspring (FHSO) cohort (n = 1500) followed for about 36 years with six examinations. The ADRB2 rs1042714 (C-->G) polymorphism and two moderately correlated (r(2) = 0.77) ACE polymorphisms, rs4363 (A-->G) and rs12449782 (A-->G), were significantly associated with risks of MI in this aging cohort in multimarker models. Predominantly linked ACE genotypes exhibited opposite effects on MI risks, e.g., the AA (rs12449782) genotype had a detrimental effect, whereas the predominantly linked AA (rs4363) genotype exhibited a protective effect. This trade-off occurs as a result of the opposite effects of rare compound genotypes of the ACE polymorphisms with a single dose of the AG heterozygote. This genetic trade-off is further augmented by the selective modulating effect of the rs1042714 ADRB2 polymorphism. The associations were not altered by adjustment for common MI risk factors. The results suggest that effects of single specific genetic variants of the ADRB2 and ACE genes on MI can be readily altered by gene-gene or/and gene-environmental interactions, especially in large heterogeneous samples. Multimarker genetic analyses should benefit studies of complex aging-associated phenotypes.

Percent body fat more associated with perioperative risks after total joint arthroplasty than body mass index

Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.Understanding the impact of obesity on elective total joint arthroplasty (TJA) remains critical. Perioperative outcomes were reviewed in 316 patients undergoing primary TJA. Higher percent body fat (PBF) was associated with postoperative blood transfusion, increased hospital length of stay (LOS) >3 days, and discharge to an extended care facility while no significant differences existed for BMI. Additionally, PBF of 43.5 was associated with a 2.4× greater likelihood of blood transfusion, PBF of 36.5 with a 1.9× greater likelihood for LOS >3 days, and PBF of 36.0 with a 1.4× greater likelihood for discharge to an extended care facility. PBF may be a more effective measure than BMI to use in screening for perioperative risks and acute outcomes associated with obese total joint patients.

Areva and EDF: business prospects and risks in nuclear energy

This report examines the financial position of EDF and Areva and analyses what the impact of their nuclear ambitions will be on this.

ENEL: business prospects and risks in nuclear energy

This report examines the level of debt of ENEL and how that will be impacted by its plans for new nuclear power plants.